Edelman may be worth $6-$8 million, but is he worth that to a team that has Amendola?

[Brady6]

Re: Edelman may be worth $6-$8 million, but is he worth that to a team that has Amend

It's really that simple. I've had a groin pull - nothing like Amendola had - and you admittedly know nothing about it. Given those not-so-fond memories, I'm amazed he played as well as he did. (And please don't quote him saying he was near 100% again...Brady was saying the same thing with a torn ligament in his hand.)



I don't have a "bias" toward him, particularly over JE. I think I've said several times that my grandson is named after JE - he's been a hero in this house for years. The least surprised person in teh world over his performance was my son, who's been saying he could put up numbers like that for years now.



I think it would be STUPID with a capital STUPID to cut Amendola after this one year, for cap reasons and for performance reasons. That's not a bias; it's an honest evaluation. The Billy Ball numbers on Amendola are surprisingly good, and the blocking rating is VERY GOOD. I don't discount that.

What you wrote here is very reasonable and it is logical, I can respect and appreciate your opinion when you explain it like this.

I even agree with you, it would be bad a bad decision to cut Amendola after one season. If we did cut him it would be three straight seasons in which we acquired a notable veteran receiver through trade or UFA only to cut him after just one season and have his cap hit impact the following seasons salary cap. That trend has to stop, either we need to do a better job assessing the acquisitions or we need to give these players more than one season. The best move would be to give Amendola the second season, he unlike the other two is relatively young.

I do think that it is far to consider Amendola inconsistent, it could be that is his health is inconsistent which causes his play to show inconsistently, or he could just be a streaky player. Welker was extremely consistent during his tenure and Edelman was over the final 8 games last season, my only reservation about Amendola is if he can do that. I do believe he can give us production and honestly my hope is that we move away from the slot to some degree in 2014 and use it as more a complementary piece of the offense, such as safety net, etc.

 

[supafly]

Re: Edelman may be worth $6-$8 million, but is he worth that to a team that has Amend

I think it would be STUPID with a capital STUPID to cut Amendola after this one year, for cap reasons and for performance reasons. That's not a bias; it's an honest evaluation. The Billy Ball numbers on Amendola are surprisingly good, and the blocking rating is VERY GOOD. I don't discount that.

I agree with just about everything that you say, and I too, have been a huge Julian Edelman supporter since he came here, so we share similar positions without negative bias towards either player.

It's interesting to see that you bring up Danny Amendola's excellent blocking skills because that was something that I've been discussing for months now, and also has been something that I've heard others (announcers, analysts) speaking of as well. There were a couple/few times this year where I saw Amendola absolutely destroy his man on blocking assignments, and it almost makes me wonder if Belichick/McDaniels didn't choose to have the 2 of them play their specific roles for a reason that we don't always initially understand as fans. I think everyone in the passing game did about the best they could do last year under the poor circumstances, so it's anyone's guess where things go from here.

As has been noted though, Amendola put up fine numbers when you consider his targets. The disappointment comes from the fact that he was injured, missed 4 games, and didn't produce as much as many had hoped. He still had a 4.5 reception rate per game though, an 11.7 YPC, a 65% completion rate, and a 1st down rate of 37 on 54 total catches (almost 70 percent). Those aren't numbers that are nearly as awful as some make it out to be.

Obviously, we all want to see more, and I would assume that Belichick will need to see more as well by the 2015 offseason next year, but it's not as though he was Chad Ochocinco either. The guy had a 3.5m dollar cap hit. He didn't produce as much as he should've, but it's hard for me to imagine a replacement coming in for something that much cheaper and doing any better, and I think that sometimes gets overlooked.

 

[SalemPats]

Re: Edelman may be worth $6-$8 million, but is he worth that to a team that has Amend

I agree with just about everything that you say, and I too, have been a huge Julian Edelman supporter since he came here, so we share similar positions without negative bias towards either player.

It's interesting to see that you bring up Danny Amendola's excellent blocking skills because that was something that I've been discussing for months now, and also has been something that I've heard others (announcers, analysts) speaking of as well. There were a couple/few times this year where I saw Amendola absolutely destroy his man on blocking assignments, and it almost makes me wonder if Belichick/McDaniels didn't choose to have the 2 of them play their specific roles for a reason that we don't always initially understand as fans. I think everyone in the passing game did about the best they could do last year under the poor circumstances, so it's anyone's guess where things go from here.

As has been noted though, Amendola put up fine numbers when you consider his targets. The disappointment comes from the fact that he was injured, missed 4 games, and didn't produce as much as many had hoped. He still had a 4.5 reception rate per game though, an 11.7 YPC, a 65% completion rate, and a 1st down rate of 37 on 54 total catches (almost 70 percent). Those aren't numbers that are nearly as awful as some make it out to be.

Obviously, we all want to see more, and I would assume that Belichick will need to see more as well by the 2015 offseason next year, but it's not as though he was Chad Ochocinco either. The guy had a 3.5m dollar cap hit. He didn't produce as much as he should've, but it's hard for me to imagine a replacement coming in for something that much cheaper and doing any better, and I think that sometimes gets overlooked.

The real issue is can Amendola be a productive outside receiver with Edelman taking the slot. I don't think he's phsyical enough on the outside nor can he handle a 16 game season. With Edelman/Gronk in the lineup he's what Brady's 4th progression behind Gronk/Edelman/Vereen and not too mention we could add a TE and Dobson/FA or Draft WR could step up. I don't think he can create separation against good corners on the outside. What are we talking about now, 3 catches a game with a weak YAC. Even the WR screens go to Edelman now. Not too mention he'll be non-existent in the red zone. It's all about personnel. DA is a good slot receiver, not a good outside receiver. At that point is it worth it to cut him and take a couple million dollar cap hit, but use that extra money for something else. BB will have to decide that and March 11 is a big day.

 

[ripatsfan91]

Re: Edelman may be worth $6-$8 million, but is he worth that to a team that has Amend

The real issue is can Amendola be a productive outside receiver with Edelman taking the slot. I don't think he's phsyical enough on the outside nor can he handle a 16 game season. With Edelman/Gronk in the lineup he's what Brady's 4th progression behind Gronk/Edelman/Vereen and not too mention we could add a TE and Dobson/FA or Draft WR could step up. I don't think he can create separation against good corners on the outside. What are we talking about now, 3 catches a game with a weak YAC. Even the WR screens go to Edelman now. Not too mention he'll be non-existent in the red zone. It's all about personnel. DA is a good slot receiver, not a good outside receiver. At that point is it worth it to cut him and take a couple million dollar cap hit, but use that extra money for something else. BB will have to decide that and March 11 is a big day.

This has been rehashed so many times, but it is Edelman who plays outside! Not Amendola, so your point is mute. Amendola is the slot receiver.

Brady's progressions are dependent on what play is being run. I think Dobson can step up next season and become a significant contributor on the outside.

 

[SalemPats]

Re: Edelman may be worth $6-$8 million, but is he worth that to a team that has Amend

This has been rehashed so many times, but it is Edelman who plays outside! Not Amendola, so your point is mute. Amendola is the slot receiver.

Brady's progressions are dependent on what play is being run. I think Dobson can step up next season and become a significant contributor on the outside.

Edelman pretty much played the slot, he's more versatlie and phsyical, but i loved the way he was utilized this year.

At the end of the day, BB will make the best decision for the team. But, I expect the offense to look very different, I have no clue what he'll do, but i trust him

 

[supafly]

Re: Edelman may be worth $6-$8 million, but is he worth that to a team that has Amend

The real issue is can Amendola be a productive outside receiver with Edelman taking the slot. I don't think he's phsyical enough on the outside nor can he handle a 16 game season. With Edelman/Gronk in the lineup he's what Brady's 4th progression behind Gronk/Edelman/Vereen and not too mention we could add a TE and Dobson/FA or Draft WR could step up. I don't think he can create separation against good corners on the outside. What are we talking about now, 3 catches a game with a weak YAC. Even the WR screens go to Edelman now. Not too mention he'll be non-existent in the red zone. It's all about personnel. DA is a good slot receiver, not a good outside receiver. At that point is it worth it to cut him and take a couple million dollar cap hit, but use that extra money for something else. BB will have to decide that and March 11 is a big day.

I understand your concern, but I think it's extremely doubtful that Amendola is cut after his first year. It's much more likely that the decision is made after 2014 to where they'd approach him to take a pay cut (should Belichick not be satisfied with his production), and he'd either accept or be cut then.

The first 2 years were structured to pretty much guarantee him here, much like most pacts of that kind of pay scale.

If anything, I think you may have even made a solid argument for allowing Edelman to walk in free agency and using that money to go after someone else, by moving Amendola to the slot. For what it's worth, I'm hoping that Edelman is retained, but it's looking like if it's anything beyond about 4m AAV, that may not be too good of a possibility. As you said, we'll have to see what happens and trust that Belichick makes a good decision. I wouldn't mind having them both another year just for the ability to cover our asses with both players being injury prone.

This has been rehashed so many times, but it is Edelman who plays outside! Not Amendola, so your point is mute. Amendola is the slot receiver.

Julian Edelman had an almost 50/50 split for this past 2013 season.

50.5 percent came on the outside

49.5 came in the slot

It's very hard to distinguish him either way, or either player for that matter based off of the goofy 2013 situation. In comparison, Wes Welker played about 80%+ in the slot for Denver this past year due to the weapons that they put on the field and WW's talent in that area.

 

[PatsDeb]

Re: Edelman may be worth $6-$8 million, but is he worth that to a team that has Amend

Yes, he is. Based on last year's results if I could keep only one I would seriously consider keeping Edelman over Amendola.

 

[50-yard-line]

Re: Edelman may be worth $6-$8 million, but is he worth that to a team that has Amend

Yes, he is. Based on last year's results if I could keep only one I would seriously consider keeping Edelman over Amendola.

On a level $ playing field, I think many fans would agree with you. not sure about the coaches (blocking issues, for example).

 

[Brady6]

Re: Edelman may be worth $6-$8 million, but is he worth that to a team that has Amend

On a level $ playing field, I think many fans would agree with you. not sure about the coaches (blocking issues, for example).

Julian Edelman layed out Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie [Broncos-Patriots] | GIF Section-

 

[PatsFanInVa]

Re: Edelman may be worth $6-$8 million, but is he worth that to a team that has Amend

Until proven otherwise, Gronk is not a threat when it matters most, because he's not healthy when it matters most:

2010-11: Great rookie year. 2010 team lost to the JEST of all people in the divisional round. Gronk was there and performed well (4 receptions, 65 yds)

2011-12: Super Bowl XLVI. Gimpy Gronk (ankle). Okay so he was injured. That's okay. Gronk didn't give up all the Giant's yards on offense. Gronk didn't fail to score more than 17 points (although he was the guy with a shot at the end). Gronk didn't do this, Gronk didn't do that. Gronk was physically there and caught 2 balls for 26 yards. No big deal. We had other weapons. On the other hand... there is this headline...

Patriots Hail Mary Attempt At End Of Super Bowl (Video) | SportsGrid

2012-13: Season ends with Gronk on IR, forearm. Pats season ends in loss to Baltimore. Does Gronk make that game a New England W if healthy? Very unlikely. Do we lose that game without Gronk? Absolutely.

2013-14: We lose to Denver and "The Forehead." Where is Gronk? The IR for the beginning of the year, the IR for the end of the year, on the field for a few games in the middle.

You can make a case that a healthy Gronk "wins" SB 46 on one single play, though you have to wade through a lot of offsetting considerations. You can make a stronger case that a healthy Gronk, considering the whole game, seals the deal in SB46.

Since then it's been Life Without Gronk when it matters.

I don't say this to say something stupid like "let's cut Gronk." But we can't count on Gronk late in the season. Period. Call it his aggressive style of play, call it made of glass, I don't care. We need some other option if we intend to do something other than carve teams up across the middle and ground-n-pound.

Now, we might not intend to do so. We might be taking a look at what we have, weighing out what we can afford, etc., and decide we don't need nothin' but Dobson.

All I'm saying is your roster for the season includes Gronk. If history is anything to judge by, your roster in the final game will not.

Given that fact, what's the backup plan?

PFnV

 

[50-yard-line]

Re: Edelman may be worth $6-$8 million, but is he worth that to a team that has Amend

Julian Edelman layed out Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie [Broncos-Patriots] | GIF Section-

They actually look through the coach's tapes and compile stats on this sort of thing. Edelman was -3.2, lowest on the team.

Surprised the heck out of me because he's such a scrappy fighter.

 

[kennyb]

Re: Edelman may be worth $6-$8 million, but is he worth that to a team that has Amend

They actually look through the coach's tapes and compile stats on this sort of thing. Edelman was -3.2, lowest on the team.

Surprised the heck out of me because he's such a scrappy fighter.

What sort of thing? -3.2? -3.2 what? Is that good or bad? What are we measuring here?

 

[supafly]

Re: Edelman may be worth $6-$8 million, but is he worth that to a team that has Amend

Until proven otherwise, Gronk is not a threat when it matters most, because he's not healthy when it matters most:

2010-11: Great rookie year. 2010 team lost to the JEST of all people in the divisional round. Gronk was there and performed well (4 receptions, 65 yds)

2011-12: Super Bowl XLVI. Gimpy Gronk (ankle). Okay so he was injured. That's okay. Gronk didn't give up all the Giant's yards on offense. Gronk didn't fail to score more than 17 points (although he was the guy with a shot at the end). Gronk didn't do this, Gronk didn't do that. Gronk was physically there and caught 2 balls for 26 yards. No big deal. We had other weapons. On the other hand... there is this headline...

Patriots Hail Mary Attempt At End Of Super Bowl (Video) | SportsGrid

2012-13: Season ends with Gronk on IR, forearm. Pats season ends in loss to Baltimore. Does Gronk make that game a New England W if healthy? Very unlikely. Do we lose that game without Gronk? Absolutely.

2013-14: We lose to Denver and "The Forehead." Where is Gronk? The IR for the beginning of the year, the IR for the end of the year, on the field for a few games in the middle.

You can make a case that a healthy Gronk "wins" SB 46 on one single play, though you have to wade through a lot of offsetting considerations. You can make a stronger case that a healthy Gronk, considering the whole game, seals the deal in SB46.

Since then it's been Life Without Gronk when it matters.

I don't say this to say something stupid like "let's cut Gronk." But we can't count on Gronk late in the season. Period. Call it his aggressive style of play, call it made of glass, I don't care. We need some other option if we intend to do something other than carve teams up across the middle and ground-n-pound.

Now, we might not intend to do so. We might be taking a look at what we have, weighing out what we can afford, etc., and decide we don't need nothin' but Dobson.

All I'm saying is your roster for the season includes Gronk. If history is anything to judge by, your roster in the final game will not.

Given that fact, what's the backup plan?

PFnV

I think the only realistic kind of backup plan that anyone could have considering the talent of the player, would be to add depth behind him, along with better overall receiving options in general.

We should look to the draft to select a TE in the top 1-2 rounds in my opinion. That would definitely help much more than last season's debacle at TE with Mulligan/Hooman. It's also possible that we could even improve the TE3 as well, while we're at it.

The second option would be to improve the general receiving corps as a whole, and that should happen on some level with the expected growth of the rookies into year #2, along with an additional upgrade for a veteran presence at WR as well.

I don't really see any other viable options to try and prepare with life outside of Gronkowski, due to the fact that he's practically irreplaceable due to exceptional talent/size.

 

[supafly]

Re: Edelman may be worth $6-$8 million, but is he worth that to a team that has Amend

What sort of thing? -3.2? -3.2 what? Is that good or bad? What are we measuring here?

Pretty sure they are blocking grades for the WRs, Kenny.

If that is true, then Edelman would be graded out to a very poor performance in that regard. Amendola, on the other hand, was a much better blocker, although I don't know what his specific grade # was.

Perhaps 50 yard line can share that info when he gets a chance.

 

[mgteich]

Re: Edelman may be worth $6-$8 million, but is he worth that to a team that has Amend

I believe that Hooman would be an improvement at TE3.

I think the only realistic kind of backup plan that anyone could have considering the talent of the player, would be to add depth behind him, along with better overall receiving options in general.

We should look to the draft to select a TE in the top 1-2 rounds in my opinion. That would definitely help much more than last season's debacle at TE with Mulligan/Hooman. It's also possible that we could even improve the TE3 as well, while we're at it.

The second option would be to improve the general receiving corps as a whole, and that should happen on some level with the expected growth of the rookies into year #2, along with an additional upgrade for a veteran presence at WR as well.

I don't really see any other viable options to try and prepare with life outside of Gronkowski, due to the fact that he's practically irreplaceable due to exceptional talent/size.

 

[DocHoliday]

Re: Edelman may be worth $6-$8 million, but is he worth that to a team that has Amend

Pretty sure they are blocking grades for the WRs, Kenny.

If that is true, then Edelman would be graded out to a very poor performance in that regard. Amendola, on the other hand, was a much better blocker, although I don't know what his specific grade # was.

Perhaps 50 yard line can share that info when he gets a chance.

Interesting given reports that the team benched Welker for Edelman due to the latter being a superior blocker. The reports are probably false, but if they were true it would paint Welker as an atrocious blocker,

 

[50-yard-line]

Re: Edelman may be worth $6-$8 million, but is he worth that to a team that has Amend

Interesting given reports that the team benched Welker for Edelman due to the latter being a superior blocker. The reports are probably false, but if they were true it would paint Welker as an atrocious blocker,

Welker is actually a very good blocker - he came in higher than anyone on the Pats by a mile.

 

[PatsFanInVa]

Re: Edelman may be worth $6-$8 million, but is he worth that to a team that has Amend

I think the only realistic kind of backup plan that anyone could have considering the talent of the player, would be to add depth behind him, along with better overall receiving options in general.

We should look to the draft to select a TE in the top 1-2 rounds in my opinion. That would definitely help much more than last season's debacle at TE with Mulligan/Hooman. It's also possible that we could even improve the TE3 as well, while we're at it.

The second option would be to improve the general receiving corps as a whole, and that should happen on some level with the expected growth of the rookies into year #2, along with an additional upgrade for a veteran presence at WR as well.

I don't really see any other viable options to try and prepare with life outside of Gronkowski, due to the fact that he's practically irreplaceable due to exceptional talent/size.

"It a funny puzzler," as the commercial goes. I suppose I agree. It's hard to contemplate dumping Gronk. It's hard to contemplate blithely assuming he'll be there. Yes, fortunately, we have had luck drafting TEs (at least in pure talent terms). So we can probably improve over last year. Around here we seem to think Dobson is ten seconds away from exploding on the national scene... well, I'll believe that out of necessity.

I don't know how much Brady we've got left, but given the receiving options Tom's got this coming year, and the cap constraints, I think we might have a somewhat difficult year in the aerial department.

Or, injuries might be a one-year thing, Amendola might be fantastic, Edelman's deal might happen thru cap magic of some kind, everybody we need back will be back, Talib will somehow work out also due to cap magic, etc.

I dunno. I'm not a draftnik or a capologist. I just keep seeing "Oh yeah for those longer passes we have Dobson and Gronk" and I'm thinking "um, best not need those long threats deep in the post-season if you're counting Gronk."

 

[supafly]

Re: Edelman may be worth $6-$8 million, but is he worth that to a team that has Amend

"It a funny puzzler," as the commercial goes. I suppose I agree. It's hard to contemplate dumping Gronk. It's hard to contemplate blithely assuming he'll be there. Yes, fortunately, we have had luck drafting TEs (at least in pure talent terms). So we can probably improve over last year. Around here we seem to think Dobson is ten seconds away from exploding on the national scene... well, I'll believe that out of necessity.

I don't know how much Brady we've got left, but given the receiving options Tom's got this coming year, and the cap constraints, I think we might have a somewhat difficult year in the aerial department.

Or, injuries might be a one-year thing, Amendola might be fantastic, Edelman's deal might happen thru cap magic of some kind, everybody we need back will be back, Talib will somehow work out also due to cap magic, etc.

I dunno. I'm not a draftnik or a capologist. I just keep seeing "Oh yeah for those longer passes we have Dobson and Gronk" and I'm thinking "um, best not need those long threats deep in the post-season if you're counting Gronk."

I find your cautious optimism to be very appropriate.

As far as the struggles in the receiving game go, I think it'd be difficult to pass the low bar set by last year's 2013 squad, so at least we have that to go on. I find the thought of improvement in that area to be reasonable enough to expect myself.

Whether that includes Gronk or not is anyone's guess, but I also catch myself being reminded that obtaining that first round bye is extremely important in the sense that it basically assures us a 2 week rest period with the opportunity to win one playoff game at home in order to go to the AFCCG. In other words, even though he hasn't been there in the postseason lately, he definitely still helps us achieve the first level of a 2 or 3 step process that shouldn't be understated. Anything can happen once we get there, even though it's been unfortunate lately. Just something to ponder, although I do share some of the same concerns as you do.

 

[supafly]

Re: Edelman may be worth $6-$8 million, but is he worth that to a team that has Amend

I believe that Hooman would be an improvement at TE3.

I don't mind Hooman himself, but we certainly don't want to have to depend on him either. If the first 2 TEs can contribute on a consistent enough basis this season, I'm fine having Hooman as our third TE.

I think the selection of a top 1-2 round TE could go a long way towards filling that enormous hole left by the departure of the prisoner. If Belichick deems it appropriate to also bring in another competitive TE vet on a cheap deal, all the better in my opinion.