Should they try to extend Chandler Jones this offseason?

[Brady6]

The Patriots locked up Gronkowski and Hernandez after just 2 season. In my opinion despite the injuries, they have Gronkowski under contract at a much lower cost than if they had let him get to UFA. Hernandez allegedly is murderous scum so that did not pan out as well, but the contract would have been a great value had he maintained his production over the period.

Top 20 APY
1. Mario Williams-$16,000,000
2. Julius Peppers-$14,000,000
3. Clay Matthews-$13,200,000
4. DeMarcus Ware-$13,000,000
5. Charles Johnson-$12,666,667
6. Jared Allen-$12,276,677
7. Trent Cole-$12,131,250
8. Chris Long-$12,050,000
9. Tamba Hali-$11,500,000
10. Michael Johnson-$11,175,000
11. Anthony Spencer-$10,627,200
12. Terrell Suggs-$10,416,667
13. Lamarr Woodley-$10,250,000
14. Robert Mathis-$9,000,000
15. Cameron Wake-$8,300,000
16. Paul Kruger-$8,100,000
17. Carlos Dunlap-$7,874,000
18. Will Smith-$7,850,000
19. Ahmad Brooks-$6,733,333
20. Connor Barwin-$6,000,000

I fear that if they let Jones get all the way to his UFA period he could be looking at Mario Williams type money.

 

[BradyFTW!]

I don't really see the benefit for the Pats. I think they'll let him play out 2014, and will strongly consider extending him going into 2015. I

Extending guys with two years left on their rookie deals isn't great precedent. It's the kind of thing that the Pats seem to reserve for players who have already proven to be elite at their position; not guys who have shown some promise but aren't there yet.

 

[Brady6]

I don't really see the benefit for the Pats. I think they'll let him play out 2014, and will strongly consider extending him going into 2015. I

Extending guys with two years left on their rookie deals isn't great precedent. It's the kind of thing that the Pats seem to reserve for players who have already proven to be elite at their position; not guys who have shown some promise but aren't there yet.

I would consider Chandler Jones an elite defensive end.

• 79 tackles
• 11.5 sacks
• 80 total QB pressures
• 1 forced fumble
• 1 fumble recovery
• 7 stuffs
• 1 blocked kick

He won defensive player of the month for November.

Chandler Jones named AFC Defensive Player of the Month

Chandler Jones? Emergence Key To Patriots? Defense Excelling In 2014 | New England Patriots | NESN.com

I would consider him more elite at his position than Aaron Hernandez was after 2011.

 

[BradyFTW!]

I would consider Chandler Jones an elite defensive end.

• 79 tackles
• 11.5 sacks
• 80 total QB pressures
• 1 forced fumble
• 1 fumble recovery
• 7 stuffs
• 1 blocked kick

He won defensive player of the month for November.

Chandler Jones named AFC Defensive Player of the Month

Chandler Jones? Emergence Key To Patriots? Defense Excelling In 2014 | New England Patriots | NESN.com

I would consider him more elite at his position than Aaron Hernandez was after 2011.

One major point that I neglected to mention before was that part of the reason why Gronk and Hernandez were extended when they were was because they had four year rookie contracts. As a first round pick, Jones has a four-year contract with a team option for a fifth year, so he's under the Patriots' control through 2016 whether he signs a new deal or not. A closer equivalent to Gronk/Hernandez would be extending Jones after this season, as it would be another example of extending a guy with two years left on his current deal.

As for the Hernandez comparison, I somewhat disagree. In 2011 Aaron Hernandez was pretty clearly one of the 10 best TE's in the NFL (you could make a fairly compelling case that he was top 5). Still, you're definitely right that the deal was made somewhat based on projections of how good he could end up being, rather than just looking at how good he was. Good point.

That said, I don't see Jones as one of the top 10 DEs in the NFL. I think he has all of the tools to get there, but I'd be uneasy with the prospect of the Patriots extending him now, without seeing more progress. And since the Pats have him under their control for the next 3 years anyway, I don't see any reason for them to be in a hurry.

 

[Rob0729]

The Pats can't extend Jones under the current CBA. Gronk and Hernandez were grandfathered under the previous CBA. This conversation is moot because there is absolutely no way the Pats could give Jones an extension even if the want to

 

[ausbacker]

Jones isn't an elite Defensive End yet. Quinn, Hardy, Allen, Watt (if he's on the edge) etc. are your elite Defensive Ends. Jones is on the level just behind these guys and will push to join the elite category in 2014.

 

[VrabelJr]

Jones isn't an elite Defensive End yet. Quinn, Hardy, Allen, Watt (if he's on the edge) etc. are your elite Defensive Ends. Jones is on the level just behind these guys and will push to join the elite category in 2014.

I wouldn't anoint Hardy and Quinn just yet. If they are 12+ sack guys again next year then they can be in the elite category. Remember when we all called Jason Pierre Paul elite because he had one good year? Look at him now.

 

[ctpatsfan77]

The Pats can't extend Jones under the current CBA. Gronk and Hernandez were grandfathered under the previous CBA. This conversation is moot because there is absolutely no way the Pats could give Jones an extension even if the want to

Correct, except, technically, for the grandfathered part.

The previous CBA allowed drafted rookie contracts to be renegotiated after two years. The new CBA does not allow drafted rookie contracts to be renegotiated until after three years.

Interestingly enough, the CBA allows UDFAs to renegotiate after two years, so, ironically, the Patriots could extend Ryan Allen after next year, but can't renegotiate with Jamie Collins or Aaron Dobson until after 2015.

 

[ausbacker]

I wouldn't anoint Hardy and Quinn just yet. If they are 12+ sack guys again next year then they can be in the elite category. Remember when we all called Jason Pierre Paul elite because he had one good year? Look at him now.

You're probably right but the same could be said for Josh Gordon who has now worked his way into the elite category going into season 2014.

I consider Quinn one of the finest up and coming defensive talents in the NFL. I've been on this train for a little while.

 

[Rob0729]

Correct, except, technically, for the grandfathered part.

The previous CBA allowed drafted rookie contracts to be renegotiated after two years. The new CBA does not allow drafted rookie contracts to be renegotiated until after three years.

Interestingly enough, the CBA allows UDFAs to renegotiate after two years, so, ironically, the Patriots could extend Ryan Allen after next year, but can't renegotiate with Jamie Collins or Aaron Dobson until after 2015.

Well, Gronk and Hernandez were grandfathered because they were draft under the previous CBA and got deals after two years. I don't know where I am wrong.

 

[BradyFTW!]

I wouldn't anoint Hardy and Quinn just yet. If they are 12+ sack guys again next year then they can be in the elite category. Remember when we all called Jason Pierre Paul elite because he had one good year? Look at him now.

To be fair, JPP *was* an elite DE. Then he hurt his back.

'Barring major injuries' is the caveat to any discussion relating to NFL players, pretty much.

IMO, Quinn is elite, and a pretty solid case can be made for Hardy (at the minimum, he's better than Chandler Jones, to bring it back to the original topic).

 

[Brady6]

One major point that I neglected to mention before was that part of the reason why Gronk and Hernandez were extended when they were was because they had four year rookie contracts. As a first round pick, Jones has a four-year contract with a team option for a fifth year, so he's under the Patriots' control through 2016 whether he signs a new deal or not. A closer equivalent to Gronk/Hernandez would be extending Jones after this season, as it would be another example of extending a guy with two years left on his current deal.

As for the Hernandez comparison, I somewhat disagree. In 2011 Aaron Hernandez was pretty clearly one of the 10 best TE's in the NFL (you could make a fairly compelling case that he was top 5). Still, you're definitely right that the deal was made somewhat based on projections of how good he could end up being, rather than just looking at how good he was. Good point.

That said, I don't see Jones as one of the top 10 DEs in the NFL. I think he has all of the tools to get there, but I'd be uneasy with the prospect of the Patriots extending him now, without seeing more progress. And since the Pats have him under their control for the next 3 years anyway, I don't see any reason for them to be in a hurry.

I actually was not aware of the 5th year option, thank you for the information. With that now known I agree with you, next offseason would be the best time to begin consideration for an extension.

 

[BradyFTW!]

I actually was not aware of the 5th year option, thank you for the information. With that now known I agree with you, next offseason would be the best time to begin consideration for an extension.

Right on, I forgot all about it too. I knew something didn't add up, but didn't realize what it was until the second post.

 

[Brady6]

To be fair, JPP *was* an elite DE. Then he hurt his back.

'Barring major injuries' is the caveat to any discussion relating to NFL players, pretty much.

IMO, Quinn is elite, and a pretty solid case can be made for Hardy (at the minimum, he's better than Chandler Jones, to bring it back to the original topic).

One thing that JPP does very well (along with JJ Watt) that I really hope Chandler Jones develops is the ability to bat down balls at the line of scrimmage.

 

[BradyFTW!]

One thing that JPP does very well (along with JJ Watt) that I really hope Chandler Jones develops is the ability to bat down balls at the line of scrimmage.

I thought that JPP was the best comparable for Chandler coming into the league - they're very similar players, IMO.

I think that his decline in production totally makes sense, though. Back injuries are nothing to mess around with. They're serious business, and he hasn't been the same since his back surgery. The timeline looks like this:

2011: JPP had his breakout year
2012: Started the season out pretty strong: 6.5 sacks through 9 weeks. Then he hurt his back in November. Played through it, but he had to have surgery over the offseason. This explains his lack of production over the final two months of the season, IMO.
2013: Looked like his back was still messed up, plus a shoulder injury for good measure.

Moral of the story: back injuries are no joke and can easily be career killers.

 

[ctpatsfan77]

Well, Gronk and Hernandez were grandfathered because they were draft under the previous CBA and got deals after two years. I don't know where I am wrong.

All I'm saying is it's not technically "grandfathering," since the CBA didn't explicitly carve out some exception; the CBA doesn't regulate the details of contracts already in force except for the cumulative salary cap.

BTW—I don't want to turn this into a pie fight, so I won't post any more on the issue of whether this is or isn't grandfathering. If you think it is, I won't try to convince you it isn't.

 

[patsfan-1982]

the price for DE's just like CB's is slowly going down so they are better off waiting when they have more cap space

 

[mgteich]

Perhaps when we have increases in the cap, the prices for DE's and CB's will increase, perhaps in 2016. The cap is where it was in 2009. IMHO, the decreases are functions of teams have increases based on fall hopes of cap increases, and a subsequent recognition of reality.

the price for DE's just like CB's is slowly going down so they are better off waiting when they have more cap space

 

[Ring 6]

Perhaps when we have increases in the cap, the prices for DE's and CB's will increase, perhaps in 2016. The cap is where it was in 2009. IMHO, the decreases are functions of teams have increases based on fall hopes of cap increases, and a subsequent recognition of reality.

Which would mean extending now might make sense.

 

[mgteich]

What your are seem to be suggesting is that we extend potential pro-bowlers as soon as we can and take the risk of injury (rather than have the player take the risk). I suppose that is generally a good idea, although it negates the great bargain in the rookie salary. One of the great part of the CBA for the teams is the ability to tie up inexpensive talent for 4 years or 5 years in the case of a first rounder.

So, for me it makes little sense to extend players with three years to go on the obligations. Of course, the folks writing the CAB prevented such temptations a violation.

The other issue is the underlying presumption that we are going to get a bargain because agents have a lower projected cap in the out years than the patriots do.

Which would mean extending now might make sense.