The Situation At Safety

[Mack Herron]

How else would you get the larger cap hit down if you wanted to keep him as a rotational Safety #3 for another year or so, while the other younger players developed?

We need improvement at the starting position, but there aren't many NFL teams who have a 3rd safety who is that much better than Steve Gregory. Many don't even have a 3rd safety who is as good as Gregory when you think about it.

Many still believe that he's a capable enough backup who can start in a pinch, and he does still have some good traits, despite his obvious weaknesses as a starter.

We are not getting good ROI at either safety position. McCourty needs to be extended (he can play but he is not Ward or Thomas). Cut Gregory and start Harmon. Gregory is overpaid even as a starter. You want to extend him and move him down to a rotational third safety. How much do you want to pay a third safety who can play no special teams? I just don't see the fit there.

 

[ATippett56]

How else would you get the larger cap hit down if you wanted to keep him as a rotational Safety #3 for another year or so, while the other younger players developed?

We need improvement at the starting position, but there aren't many NFL teams who have a 3rd safety who is that much better than Steve Gregory. Many don't even have a 3rd safety who is as good as Gregory when you think about it.

Many still believe that he's a capable enough backup who can start in a pinch, and he does still have some good traits, despite his obvious weaknesses as a starter.

The New England Patriots cannot afford to pay a backup safety starter money.

The New England Patriots in two consecutive drafts have invested a second round and a third round draft pick at the safety position. Either believe in your draft selections or correct the mistake in the 2014 NFL Draft.

 

[mgteich]

Cutting Gregory immediately is the kind of position that the patriots have taken before. We cut Meriweather and Sanders, with no real replacements. That was an terrible decision, one of Belichick's worst errors. Are we now in so much better shape with Harmon, Wilson and Ebner?

And yes, one solution to CURRENT year's need is often considered to be the current draft. IMHO, the draft is about the future. I have no problem at all drafting a safety to take Gegory's place in 2015, and even in 2014 if he can beat him out in camp (or if Harmon can or if Wilson can). Also, one might consider that perhaps it MIGHT be difficult to replaced experienced players with draftees.

Belichick tried the current draft approach, reaching for Wilson. How did that work out?

BOTTOM LINE
Belichick might be quite satisfied with starting Harmon and have T Wilson and Ebner as backups. I guess if Belichick thinks that is the case, I would love to be McCourty's agent.

The New England Patriots cannot afford to pay a backup safety starter money.

The New England Patriots in two consecutive drafts have invested a second round and a third round draft at the safety position. Either believe in your draft selections or correct the mistake in the 2014 NFL Draft.

 

[Deus Irae]

So are you saying that you are capable of analysing McCourty without all-22 but that your (or mine for that matter) analysis could use some improvement? I'll buy that.

I'm saying that one need not always use what is optimal. Often, suboptimal is still sufficient. Therefore, even if we assume that all-22 is the optimal method for evaluation, jumping from optimal to necessary is foolish.

Can you get a cursory impression of a backfield defender without all-22? Of course. But how would "you" or "all of us" know how well McCourty is picking up his responsibility without actually seeing him? How can you tell a WR is running his route if he's not on screen? Yes there are replays but they're usually only used on important plays so at best they are an indication of lowlights and highlights and not a reliable tool for evaluation.

The NFL broadcasts tend to use more than one angle when showing games, which means we often get more than one angle to watch what's happening. In many ways, that's actually better than the All-22 on any given play.

The argument that you can only analyze players by using the all-22 is an asinine one, and that was the argument that poster was putting forth. As I pointed out, I didn't need the all-22 to know that Chung can't cover, Ronnie Lott was a tremendous safety, Tavon Wilson has sucked to this point in his career, and Adrian Wilson has lost coverage ability.

 

[ATippett56]

Cutting Gregory immediately is the kind of position that the patriots have taken before.

Steve Gregory sucks:

2013-14 NFL Season

0 interceptions
0 forced fumbles
2 passes defensed
1 sack

Steve Gregory NFL Football Statistics - Pro-Football-Reference.com

 

[manxman2601]

I'm saying that one need not always use what is optimal. Often, suboptimal is still sufficient. Therefore, even if we assume that all-22 is the optimal method for evaluation, jumping from optimal to necessary is foolish.



The NFL broadcasts tend to use more than one angle when showing games, which means we often get more than one angle to watch what's happening. In many ways, that's actually better than the All-22 on any given play.

The argument that you can only analyze players by using the all-22 is an asinine one, and that was the argument that poster was putting forth. As I pointed out, I didn't need the all-22 to know that Chung can't cover, Ronnie Lott was a tremendous safety, Tavon Wilson has sucked to this point in his career, and Adrian Wilson has lost coverage ability.

By definition optimal is better than suboptimal. If optimal is available, which it is, then that should trump suboptimal as a source. That does still depend on the observer though. One still has to be a decent evaluator to take advantage of the all-22 tape.

I will say one more thing. The angles are much better in all-22. they are usually much higher or taken from one endzone or the other. Higher is better for secondary play, endzone is often better for trench play.

 

[mgteich]

The same was said of Meriweather and Sanders. Cutting them without replacement was wrong then. Cutting Gregory without replacement is wrong now.

I have ZERO problem with Belichick choosing to sign a veteran free safety who can compete for the starting position and then cutting Gregory in the same day.

Steve Gregory sucks:

2013-14 NFL Season

0 interceptions
0 forced fumbles
2 passes defensed
1 sack

Steve Gregory NFL Football Statistics - Pro-Football-Reference.com

 

[supafly]

We are not getting good ROI at either safety position. McCourty needs to be extended (he can play but he is not Ward or Thomas). Cut Gregory and start Harmon. Gregory is overpaid even as a starter. You want to extend him and move him down to a rotational third safety. How much do you want to pay a third safety who can play no special teams? I just don't see the fit there.

I don't think it's meant to be as much about my personal feelings regarding Gregory (which I could take or leave either way), as it's meant to show that Gregory could still have some value if they reached an agreement to lower that cap hit.

Personally, I would think the odds are pretty good for Gregory being cut. We'll have to see if Belichick agrees or not. I was simply offering another option aside from outright cutting him, and pointing out that he still offers value on some level.

My biggest concern would be a repeat performance of starting over from scratch at the position again, and lowering our "5" (out of 10) in Gregory as a starter down to something either the same or even possibly lower. I'm not as convinced that you may be regarding Harmon or Wilson's potential, and even then we'd still need adequate depth. I'm not sure about the overall market for Gregory's services around the entire NFL, but I wouldn't imagine it to be "starter money" any longer; therefore if Belichick is able to keep him for a lessened cost that is substantial enough, it may be an option worth considering.

Obviously, like any other player, one of the bigger factors will be in what kind of value Belichick sees, and whether or not Gregory would accept something like that, but if I had to guess, I would say that the odds are good that he'll be gone.

 

[Deus Irae]

By definition optimal is better than suboptimal. If optimal is available, which it is, then that should trump suboptimal as a source. That does still depend on the observer though. One still has to be a decent evaluator to take advantage of the all-22 tape.

I will say one more thing. The angles are much better in all-22. they are usually much higher or taken from one endzone or the other. Higher is better for secondary play, endzone is often better for trench play.

I'm not sure why you're even discussing this. The question at hand wasn't whether or not the All-22 might be an easier way to evaluate personnel. The issue was the claim that one could not evaluate safety play without it. For the purposes of the issue at hand, optimal or suboptimal is irrelevant. Sufficient is what matters.

 

[manxman2601]

Steve Gregory sucks:

2013-14 NFL Season

0 interceptions
0 forced fumbles
2 passes defensed
1 sack

Steve Gregory NFL Football Statistics - Pro-Football-Reference.com

Last year (2012-13) Kam Chancellor had 0 interceptions and Earl Thomas had only 1 PD. At least our safeties are better than those Seattle ones.

 

[supafly]

The New England Patriots cannot afford to pay a backup safety starter money.

I'm not sure what your definition of starter money would be, what Belichick's definition of starter money would be, or what Gregory's definition of starter money would be.

The bottom line is that while the odds aren't good that he'd be kept, another option does exist, and I wouldn't imagine that he'd be having many other teams banging down his door for "starter money" anywhere else; therefore, I couldn't imagine Belichick wanting to pay him that either. However, if Belichick sees fit to offer him something in the 1--1.25 million dollar range, the situation becomes much more compelling, which is the point.

The New England Patriots in two consecutive drafts have invested a second round and a third round draft pick at the safety position. Either believe in your draft selections or correct the mistake in the 2014 NFL Draft.

The NEP also have allocated plenty of draft resources to the position of CB lately as well just the same, and it doesn't necessarily mean that the problem has been solved, or that we don't need adequate depth. I'm not understanding what your point is?

Unless those 2nd (Tavon Wilson) or 3rd (Duron Harmon) round picks have suddenly jumped up to starter level AND we also have adequate backup/rotational players that I'm not aware of, options may indeed be explored regarding Steve Gregory's value to stay on in a lessened role, which is my only point.

 

[mgteich]

I suspect that Gregory could be on the 2014 team at a lower rate, AFTER being cut and finding no better deal. I don't see why he would simply accept a pay cut to minimum pay or a bit above. He makes $2.25M plus incentives. I suspect the patriots would ask for at least $1M reduction, or else why bother.

Personally, I think that other folks value our players more than many message board posters (Connolly, Kelly, Wendell, Spikes, Blount, Edelman and Gregory come to mind). Obviously, there are some posters who value each of those players at about what the market might value them.

I'm not sure about the overall market for Gregory's services around the entire NFL, but I wouldn't imagine it to be "starter money" any longer; therefore if Belichick is able to keep him for a lessened cost that is substantial enough, it may be an option worth considering.

 

[manxman2601]

I'm not sure why you're even discussing this. The question at hand wasn't whether or not the All-22 might be an easier way to evaluate personnel. The issue was the claim that one could not evaluate safety play without it. For the purposes of the issue at hand, optimal or suboptimal is irrelevant. Sufficient is what matters.

My point is that it isn't sufficient, at best it's barely adequate. You can see this from the fact that there's serious disagreement about how good McCourty is. I would lay good money that if we were all forced to watch the same Mccourty plays on all-22, we'd all be much nearer a consensus on his abilities than we are now.

 

[ATippett56]

The same was said of Meriweather and Sanders. Cutting them without replacement was wrong then. Cutting Gregory without replacement is wrong now.

I have ZERO problem with Belichick choosing to sign a veteran free safety who can compete for the starting position and then cutting Gregory in the same day.

The New England Patriots in two consecutive drafts selected a safety in the second round and a safety in the third round.

Unless you are willing to admit that Tavon Wilson and Duron Harmon are busts.

 

[Deus Irae]

My point is that it isn't sufficient, at best it's barely adequate. You can see this from the fact that there's serious disagreement about how good McCourty is. I would lay good money that if we were all forced to watch the same Mccourty plays on all-22, we'd all be much nearer a consensus on his abilities than we are now.

Synonyms for sufficient
adj enough, adequate

Sufficient Synonyms, Sufficient Antonyms | Thesaurus.com

[suh-fish-uhnt] adjective 1. adequate for the purpose; enough: sufficient proof; sufficient protection."]sufficient [suh-fish-uhnt] adjective 1. adequate for the purpose; enough: sufficient proof; sufficient protection.

Sufficient | Define Sufficient at Dictionary.com

suf·fi·cient
adjective \s?-?fi-sh?nt\

: having or providing as much as is needed
Full Definition of SUFFICIENT
1
a : enough to meet the needs of a situation or a proposed end

Sufficient - Definition and More from the Free Merriam-Webster Dictionary

Full Definition of ADEQUATE

1
: sufficient for a specific requirement <adequate taxation of goods>; also : barely sufficient or satisfactory <her first performance was merely adequate>
2
: lawfully and reasonably sufficient <adequate grounds for a lawsuit>

Adequate - Definition and More from the Free Merriam-Webster Dictionary


You are arguing an irrelevancy and trying to split unsplittable hairs in order to make it seem meaningful.

 

[ATippett56]

The NEP also have allocated plenty of draft resources to the position of CB lately as well just the same, and it doesn't necessarily mean that the problem has been solved, or that we don't need adequate depth. I'm not understanding what your point is?

Unless those 2nd (Tavon Wilson) or 3rd (Duron Harmon) round picks have suddenly jumped up to starter level AND we also have adequate backup/rotational players that I'm not aware of, options may indeed be explored regarding Steve Gregory's value to stay on in a lessened role, which is my only point.

Keeping a 31 year old Steve Gregory on the roster is nothing more than maintaining the status quo, which has not been good enough for the New England Patriots defense in two consecutive AFC Championship Games (54 points allowed, 0 forced turnovers).

Are you expecting an epiphany next season from Steve Gregory?

 

[mgteich]

We need THREE safeties to take lots and lots of reps. I am NOT willing to call BOTH Harmon and Wilson busts. I am also not willing to calling them starter and #3 safety. And yes, it is quite possible that Wilson is a bust. After two years, Wilson seems to be competing with Ebner for special teams reps.

I am fine with a camp competition between Gregory and Harmon for starting safety. I would be fine with Wilson competing with some one for the position of #4 safety.

And yes, I could envision Harmon starting, Wilson as the #3, and a new player as a #4 ready for reps in case of injury. However, for me, that is a lot of if's.

As I said, I am fine with Belichick bringing in someone to try to beat Gregory out in camp for his roster spot. Many expected that to happen last year.

The New England Patriots in two consecutive drafts selected a safety in the second round and a safety in the third round.

Unless you are willing to admit that Tavon Wilson and Duron Harmon are busts.

 

[manxman2601]

Sufficient Synonyms, Sufficient Antonyms | Thesaurus.com



Sufficient | Define Sufficient at Dictionary.com



Sufficient - Definition and More from the Free Merriam-Webster Dictionary



Adequate - Definition and More from the Free Merriam-Webster Dictionary

I have no idea what you are trying to prove here. Let me reiterate:

at best it is barely adequate.

I'm surprised that you are arguing that judgments arrived at with little information can't be improved upon with more information, even if the extra information only serves to confirm your initial impression.

 

[supafly]

Keeping a 31 year old Steve Gregory on the roster is nothing more than maintaining the status quo, which has not been good enough for the New England Patriots defense in two consecutive AFC Championship Games (54 points allowed, 0 forced turnovers).

Are you expecting an epiphany next season from Steve Gregory?

The premise of my comments were to point out that he still offers something in a backup/rotational role, if of course, they can agree on a lessened cost.

I'm not understanding the comments about the "epiphany" possibility next year, considering that there aren't many (if any) NFL teams who have a 3rd safety as good as Steve Gregory. We wouldn't need an epiphany from a guy playing a backup/rotational 3rd safety role if the money was lessened to Belichick's liking.

You have obviously misunderstood my comments and continue to do so. There are obviously pluses involved for keeping a guy at 1.25 or so million, when comparing the idea of bringing in another free agent or rookie safety (or Tavon Wilson) to play that role.

I would hardly assume that any of the current options will be much better in terms of improving those 54 points allowed in the last 2 AFCCG's, so unless we really luck out or hit one out of the park and that guy stays completely healthy all year 'round, we're going to need adequate depth still.

 

[ATippett56]

The premise of my comments were to point out that he still offers something in a backup/rotational role, if of course, they can agree on a lessened cost.

Please provide a link stating that Steve Gregory is willing to accept a pay cut and to what extent.