They didnt make the playoffs in 2005 and they had LT and Merriman. That's a tough division. Denver will be better. KC is always unpredictable at home. A loss here or there and suddenly they're 3rd in the division. That means they're out. What has Norv Turner ever done to demonstrate he can lead a team to the playoffs as an HC?
They probably do have a better chance than the Raiders, but not much. I don't think you grasp the issues they've had in the off-season.
I don't think you grasp just how good the Chargers are.
in 2006 they led the league in point differential. they were in #2 in DVOA. they were 14-2 in the regular season, losing by 3 points at Baltimore in week 3 (#1 in DVOA), and by 3 points at KC (as you said, always tough at home), then losing by 3 points to us in a game they easily could/should have won.
in 2005, when they missed the playoffs - they were 9-6 in games that mattered, but were still one of the 6 best teams in football. They were unlucky to lose 5 very close games (4 points to Dallas, 3 @ Denver, 2 to Pittsburgh, 3 @ Philly, 2 @ Miami). The difference between 9-7 and 12-4 was a few random bounces of the ball. in addition, they were unlucky to play in a division w/ 2 of the other top 5 teams, Denver and KC (both of whom have gotten worse since then).
in 2004 they were 12-4, were a top 10 team, and won the division.
This offseason, I agree they have had problems, notably losing the 2 coordinators and their HC. this is a setback they will need to overcome. they have lost 1 player, Donnie Edwards, from a defense that was nasty last year. shouldn't be a terrible loss.
They still have LT2 in his prime, a QB who will improve in his second year, and all kinds of young talent all over the field. 12-4 or 13-3 is where this team will end up I think, similar to what the Patriots will do I think.
I think they are the 2 best teams in the AFC, and it's close between the 2. We have gotten better, they worse, but they were better.
Re: Norv Turner, what did people used to say about Tony Dungy? or a thousand other coaches who never won....until they did. You don't hear those people talking about those coaches any more.