Expert Picks for AFCCG - Patriots at Broncos

[patsfan13]

I'm not as sanguine as you are about our DL against their running game.

Moreno, Ball and Anderson put up 280 yards on 47 carries (5.96 yds/carry) against the Pats last time in Foxboro.

This time, the game is in the thin air of Mile High Stadium and we are asking an awful lot of our rookie UFA DT's and Siliga (with no Spikes hammer in back of them) to control the Denver run.

The run D will suffer as a result of the scheme. This is something I have seen little of this week. The Pats will be in a passing sub D as the base this week, it has been this way for many years when playing against Manning. 5-7 DB's in the game. Collins will functionally be used as a S this week. the plan will be to force Manning to audible into the run or throw into double coverage.

I am fine in this game with 200yds on the ground if we limit Manning to <200 yds in the air. The PAts O will put up big number on the Del Rio D especially with the injuries they have suffered.

 

[Uncle Rico]

I know Florio picked the Pats. That could be the kiss of death.
...

As long as Marshall Faulk doesn't pick them ...

 

[shmessy]

I Notice how none of them have showed up to troll this week.

Actually, a few have. But that's why we're here for ya, bud!

 

[mayoclinic]

That was in Foxboro. Pats haven't faced Manning at Mile High.

My bad. I thought it was.

 

[shmessy]

You think Manning will be fine with handing the ball off repeatedly in a close/low scoring game?

I doubt it

Denver last game; 48 running plays.

Yes, they had a big lead in that first half - - but they did NOT abandon the run in the second when it became a ball game.

They averaged 6 yds per carry when our best run stuffing LB was in there. Spikes is gone now.

Our young DT's have potential in the future (and perhaps, Siliga is somewhat solid now) but I think alot of Pats fans are whistling past the graveyard on this subject.

Meanwhile, I have no qualms about our best secondary since the 1970's keeping Peyton Manning from having a dominant game. This looks like SB 36 to me with the timing patterns ripe for disruption at the LOS. Our corners are aggressive and physical and Collins is the fastest/biggest/most athletic LB since Willie Mac.

The running game D is, to me, the weak point.

 

[RIpats88]

the difference I see is that Siligia and Hightower have been playing ALOT better against the run lately since we replaced velano with Siligia.

This could be a difference in us limiting their run game this week vs when we last played them. put manning in alot of 3rd and long situations if he wants to hand off against our sub packages

 

[Double TE]

Help me understand this

Hoge picks the Colts to beat the Patriots and then the Patriots to beat the Broncos? Why does he still have a job?

 

[Brady_to_Moss]

As long as Marshall Faulk doesn't pick them ...

he is a RB....he sees what blount is doing...i have a feeling he picks pats. He voiced concern about denver and almost blowing the game to SD

 

[FourierSeries]

As long as Marshall Faulk doesn't pick them ...

Fault picked the Pats against the Colts.

Not that it matters who picks who.

 

[CISGS]

Help me understand this

Hoge picks the Colts to beat the Patriots and then the Patriots to beat the Broncos? Why does he still have a job?

Because he is an amazing analyst that provides useful insight












Lol okay I can't even be sarcastic about Hoge. He's the worst ever.

 

[PatsFanSince74]

If you're outside NE or not a member of Patriots Nation, you'd be more likely to pick the Broncos to win. It's the safe bet. In order to pick the Pats you'd have to believe one or more of the following:

1) While the Broncos have had the better season on paper, Belichick has Fox' and Del Rio's numbers. Fox is prone to panic and the Pats have done very well against Del Rio game plans.

2) Manning will, at some point, choke under the pressure of the story line, which is being fed by both Denver and national media, to the effect that, despite his stats, he (as we here all know) has trouble winning big games, which will be exacerbated by facing Tom Brady.

3) We can draw no conclusions (unlike Dan Shaughnessy) from the fact that the Patriots have not won a Road playoff game since the 2006 season for the simple reason that they have not had to play such a game since then.

4) We are not concerned that Tom Brady is 2--4 lifetime in games in Denver because of 1) through 3) above.

I have said in other posts this week that the two things for which I will be watching on Sunday are not turning the ball over and not falling behind by more than 7 points early on.

The Pats can win this game, but they have to play nearly flawlessly and cannot give Manning more possessions and better field position than the normal ebb and flow of the game would dictate.

They have a greater likelihood of winning if Fox and Manning fall behind and panic; if the Broncos get into a groove with a two score lead, I don't think there will be a miracle comeback at Mile High.

 

[Rob0729]

Both Felger and Mazz picked the Pats. Almost a sure sign we will see Manning's ugly mug on Super Bowl Sunday.

 

[QB12]

Surprisingly, IMO, 64% are picking Seattle.

The Prediciton Machine has been the most accurate this year (John Halpin hasn't picked yet?) and even they are taking the Broncos

yeah, but the Madden simulations have us winning comfortably.

 

[CISGS]

The Broncos only averaged a 1.5 point win vs. playoff opponents (they lost to Colts, Pats, Chargers) not named Philly. They aren't as dominant as people think.

Click that link for point differentials for the Broncos this year.

 

[mb6592]

If you're outside NE or not a member of Patriots Nation, you'd be more likely to pick the Broncos to win. It's the safe bet. In order to pick the Pats you'd have to believe one or more of the following:

1) While the Broncos have had the better season on paper, Belichick has Fox' and Del Rio's numbers. Fox is prone to panic and the Pats have done very well against Del Rio game plans.

2) Manning will, at some point, choke under the pressure of the story line, which is being fed by both Denver and national media, to the effect that, despite his stats, he (as we here all know) has trouble winning big games, which will be exacerbated by facing Tom Brady.

3) We can draw no conclusions (unlike Dan Shaughnessy) from the fact that the Patriots have not won a Road playoff game since the 2006 season for the simple reason that they have not had to play such a game since then.

4) We are not concerned that Tom Brady is 2--4 lifetime in games in Denver because of 1) through 3) above.

I have said in other posts this week that the two things for which I will be watching on Sunday are not turning the ball over and not falling behind by more than 7 points early on.

The Pats can win this game, but they have to play nearly flawlessly and cannot give Manning more possessions and better field position than the normal ebb and flow of the game would dictate.

They have a greater likelihood of winning if Fox and Manning fall behind and panic; if the Broncos get into a groove with a two score lead, I don't think there will be a miracle comeback at Mile High.

The most interesting aspect of this game will be which offensive game plan New England chooses. Run to set up the pass or vice versa? I have nightmares of the San Diego game where they stuck with establishing the run first (and staying with it until it was too late). I think I'd rather Brady start the game with a hurry up, passing strategy. If I could make a deal with the devil I would choose a 8 yard run behind Mankins or Solder, but I couldn't bear the more probable start of a handoff feeding right into Denver's hands and leading to a one yard loss and a quick three and out. I think the first couple of series are going to be huge in determining the game's outcome.

 

[RIpats88]

I dont get why people feel that one person picking a team means they will lose vs. if they pick against them. their pick is just as valid as mine or yours...which means it doesnt mean much

 

[zipster9]

yeah, but the Madden simulations have us winning comfortably.

The truth of the matter is, most of the US is picking the Broncos to win. Only the New England states are picking the Patriots.

Most "Experts" are picking the Broncos.

Now, if history serves me right, in 2007 SuperBowl, everyone was picking the Patriots to win it all.

So, it does not matter.

 

[ctpatsfan77]

Heard this morning on ESPN's M&M:

Golic: Denver has too many weapons. Denver wins.
Greeny: Blount controls game, limits Manning's possessions. Pats Win.

If it makes you feel better, I'm sure Greeny felt all dirty about it.

[Fun fact: Greeny hosted a relatively short-lived game show called Duel. A contestant who won 5 games would win $500,000. I *so* wish someone had said to him, "You're a fan of the Jets. What do you know about winning five games in a row?"]

 

[Observer]

The most interesting aspect of this game will be which offensive game plan New England chooses. Run to set up the pass or vice versa? I have nightmares of the San Diego game where they stuck with establishing the run first (and staying with it until it was too late). I think I'd rather Brady start the game with a hurry up, passing strategy. If I could make a deal with the devil I would choose a 8 yard run behind Mankins or Solder, but I couldn't bear the more probable start of a handoff feeding right into Denver's hands and leading to a one yard loss and a quick three and out. I think the first couple of series are going to be huge in determining the game's outcome.

You need not worry. Blount will return the opening kick for a TD.

 

[I am party]

Chris Berman picked the Patriots, 28-27