The 2014 Mock draft Thread.

[mayoclinic]

Brilliant work as always mayo. I would be extremely happy if we ended up with this. I personally see DT as a bigger need than you, but I understand your reasoning and agree that Trent Murphy is a stud. The only pick I don't like would be trying to develop Logan Thomas as a QB, but maybe that's just because I'm bitter that he lost me a lot of money this year throwing games away How can I not love any draft that has my binkie Trey Millard in it though. Great job!

I also see Ra'Shede Hageman as a stud, as do you, and would be quite happy if he ended up being the guy. This is going to be a really deep draft, and there are dozens of guys who I would be very happy with.

Earlier this year I had the Pats double-dipping at DT, but the emergence of Jones and Siliga gives us 2 really solid rotational guys who I think could be solid pieces for years to come. Not starters like they are now, but they aren't putting us to shame - we haven't had that kind of depth before. There are no guarantees with Armond Armstead, but the kid is a talent, and he was participating in all the team meetings, so I'm not ruling him out.

I'd like to add at least 1 more younger DT. If I were being really cold-blooded and if it was anyone but Wilfork then I'd renegotiate Tommy Kelly down to save about $1M and cut Wilfork and sign Linvale Joseph. Joseph is a 6'4" 323# run stopper who is very underrated. He's not Wilfork, but I think there's a good chance that we've seen the last of the 2004-2012 Wilfork. That would give the Pats 4 young DTs (Joseph and Sapoaga as NTs, Jones and Armstead as 3-Techs with more pass rushing ability, with Armstead also being able to play outside, again, assuming Armstead is able to get on the field) plus Kelly, who was very good at the beginning of the year. I'd love that group. But it's Wilfork, and it would be a wrench to just cut him, plus he brings so much leadership to the table, and it's certainly not out of the question that he is able to work his way back to some semblance of past form. But there's no way he's with the team with an $11.6M cap hit, and if he isn't interested in re-negotiating then I could see the Pats moving on.

Anyway, I do see DT as a major position to sort out, but I'm guessing that by the time the draft roles around it won't be as much of a need as DE.

 

[mayoclinic]

Scout over at national football post has Richard Rogers as an udfa type. Total jag from what he wrote. Doesn't understand why he came out. Amaro is also big enough to block inline.

And guys I follow online have Rodgers as a mid round prospect which is what he probably is. Guy is pretty darn quick. Tony Pauline also pegged him as a second rounder and Pauline gets info from the teams. So who knows.

And just in case we do pick him, can we establish here and now that it's Rodgers (at least according to the Cal website).

Scouts are all over the place on prospects. One man's stud is another's dud. Greg Gabriel also predicts that Blake Bortles will be a bust, and that the GM that picks him will be out of the league in 3 years. Dane Brugler thinks he should be the guy that Houston targets at #1.

Rodgers is a bit of an unknown. He played on a really bad Cal team, and he was moved from TE to slot receiver last year (at 245#), so he's changed positions. We do know that he had a bit of a weight problem - he was reportedly around 275# last summer, and was told to get his weight down or he wouldn't see the field. But he's been productive. Jeff Tedford thought that Rodgers would be the best TE in the NCAA. Ultimately, the Pats will form their own evaluation of Rodgers and not worry about where he's ranked. I had them taking him at the end of the 3rd round. We took Duron Harmon there last year, and so far that's worked out ok - much better so far than Jake Bequette, who was a "value pick" in that range the year before. I don't think it's a huge reach. I personally think that Rodgers is my #4 TE at this point, so it's good value. Again, this is very early in the draft process, so everything is open to re-evaluation over the next 4 months.

While I understand that, the problem is simply, "Who does he take snaps from?"

For example, with Nate Solder, they didn't see him starting in 2011, but they saw the writing on the wall with Light, and knew that Solder would be starting in 2012.

But here, Ninkovich and Jones will both be signed through 2016. So how do you get Murphy on the field enough to justify taking him in the first?

Again, I don't worry much about who Murphy will take snaps from. I don't draft that way. The draft is a place to amass talent that you believe will fit into the overall structure of your team and your long term plan, not a place to plug holes. Need is obviously a major factor, but not an overriding one.

Chandler Jones played 98.1% of the snaps this year. Rob Ninkovich played 95.6%. That's too much. They will wear down with that kind of load and it will hurt come playoff time. Ninkovich will be 30 in February. You need to have waves of guys that you can bring who are fresh, and guys who you can move around to create confusion. Murphy and Ninkovich are both extremely versatile guys, and Jones can be moved inside.

How many pass rushers did the Giants SB teams have? Not just 2. Look at Seattle (Clemons, Bennett, Avril, Bruce Irvin moving between OLB and DE, and ) or Cincinnati (Carlos Dunlap, Michael Johnson, Wallace Gilberry and Margus Hunt), or Carolina.

I'm betting BB and MP will find ways to get Murphy on the field for 50% of the defensive snaps as a rookie, and that he'll have plenty of value. And that's barring injury (God forbid). In any case, I don't worry much about it when drafting.

I put these 2 together because they highlight the difference in draft philosophies and evaluations that teams will have. Many GMs will draft with more of a focus on need, and many teams' draft boards will vary on a prospect. That's what makes the draft so unpredictable. This is just my approach.

 

[ctpatsfan77]

Again, I don't worry much about who Murphy will take snaps from. I don't draft that way.

Thing is, though, Bill Belichick, as an economics major, does (seem to) think that way.

Part of the calculus is that a draft pick, in order to make the roster, has to take the place of somebody currently on the 53—and for a first-round pick, almost always at a higher cap hit than the player he replaces. So BB wants to get the maximum utility out of the pick.

I'm not saying BB would never draft Murphy, merely that the Patriots don't just look at pure talent.

 

[doesntmatter1]

I would like to know everyone's thoughts on OT Morgan Moses from Virginia. My oline evaluations usually don't line up the greatest with who we actually pick, but he is my favorite prospect to add to our line.

 

[mayoclinic]

Thing is, though, Bill Belichick, as an economics major, does (seem to) think that way.

Part of the calculus is that a draft pick, in order to make the roster, has to take the place of somebody currently on the 53—and for a first-round pick, almost always at a higher cap hit than the player he replaces. So BB wants to get the maximum utility out of the pick.

I'm not saying BB would never draft Murphy, merely that the Patriots don't just look at pure talent.

Not entirely. BB took Nate Solder at #17 in 2011 despite having Matt Light and Sebastian Vollmer at OT - and it wasn't a given at that point that Light would hang up his cleats a year later. BB took Jamie Collins with our top pick this year despite Mayo, Hightower and Spikes at LB. BB took Devin McCourty at DB in 2010 when we appeared to have a solid nucleus at the position (I predicted we would go DB with our 1st pick that year, when most people on this board ridiculed the idea and were hell-bent on a pass rusher).

I'm not making any predictions about who BB will draft. That's pretty futile. But I think Murphy would be a great fit, and if BB sees enough value, he'd get serious consideration. Value doesn't necessarily equate to immediately stepping in as a starter at a lower cost.

 

[ctpatsfan77]

First off, I forgot the words that I normally use in the sentence above: he wants the maximum value over the life of the pick.

Not entirely. BB took Nate Solder at #17 in 2011 despite having Matt Light and Sebastian Vollmer at OT - and it wasn't a given at that point that Light would hang up his cleats a year later.

OTOH, the Patriots knew something years ago that most of us didn't learn until after Light retired: he'd been battling Crohn's disease for over a decade.

Also, FWIW, Belichick seems to have different expectations of players depending on the round.

 

[manxman2601]

Not entirely. BB took Nate Solder at #17 in 2011 despite having Matt Light and Sebastian Vollmer at OT - and it wasn't a given at that point that Light would hang up his cleats a year later. BB took Jamie Collins with our top pick this year despite Mayo, Hightower and Spikes at LB. BB took Devin McCourty at DB in 2010 when we appeared to have a solid nucleus at the position (I predicted we would go DB with our 1st pick that year, when most people on this board ridiculed the idea and were hell-bent on a pass rusher).

I'm not making any predictions about who BB will draft. That's pretty futile. But I think Murphy would be a great fit, and if BB sees enough value, he'd get serious consideration. Value doesn't necessarily equate to immediately stepping in as a starter at a lower cost.

Light was an unsigned FA at the time of that draft though wasn't he?

 

[mayoclinic]

I like Mayo's mock. Just a general thought about the safety position. It sure seems the NFL is eliminating the big-hit from the game. I'd rather have two coverage safeties. Heck, you get 15 yards for clean hits these days. We had the perfect SS for today's game back in the 80's. Roland James. He played CB in college. We had Haynes and Clayborn. So, we moved him to safety. Would like someone like him.

If he wasn't 5'8", I'd want Lamarcus Joyner. Heck, I want him despite that. Unfortunately, I'm not sure BB would.

I struggled with that one. You may not I listed Pryor but added that "Lamarcus Joyner or Kyle Fuller would work as well", or something to that effect. I love Joyner, and I'd be more than happy if things went that way, but he is undersized. Kyle Fuller could have nice versatility as a hybrid. One reason I went with Pryor in my mock (who is not just an "in the box" safety, though he's not someone you'd put in many coverage) is that I think Jonathan Dowling can develop very nicely into that role. But again, I'd be thrilled with any of Pryor/Joyner/Fuller in the late 2nd.

FWIW, NFLDraftScout has bumped Calvin Pryor up to #37 (previously #121) overall in their updated rankings today. Lamarcus Joyner is currently #52, Kyle Fuller #58.

 

[ctpatsfan77]

Light was an unsigned FA at the time of that draft though wasn't he?

You are correct. He didn't resign until August 1.

 

[manxman2601]

Scout over at national football post has Richard Rogers as an udfa type. Total jag from what he wrote. Doesn't understand why he came out. Amaro is also big enough to block inline.

In the 2014 prospect thread, I put up a link that compares Rodgers and the top three TEs statistically and he matches up very well, particularly in terms of YAC where he's right up there with Ebron.

 

[ATippett56]

2014 New England Patriots Mock Draft - 1/8/13

Straight Up - No Screwing Around

Round 1 - Odell Beckham Jr., WR - LSU (34)

Round 2 - DaQuan Jones, DT - Penn State (69)

Round 3 - Bryan Stork, C - Florida State (113)

Round 4 - Marcel Jensen, TE - Fresno State (129)

Round 6 - Justin Britt, OT - Missouri (191)

Round 6 - Nevin Lawson, CB - Utah State (206)

Round 6 Compensatory - James White, RB - Wisconsin (220)

Round 6 Compensatory - Trey Millard, FB - Oklahoma (268)

Round 7 - Spencer Long, OG - Nebraska (284)

Parenthesis - NFLDraftScout Overall Rankings

NFL Draft - 2014 NFL Draft Prospects - CBSSports.com - NFLDraftScout.com

Note: NFLDraftScout Overall Rankings dated 1/7/2013

Collegiate UDFAs:

Ken Bishop, DT - Northern Illinois (286)
Jamil Merrill, DE - Rutgers (372) *
Greg Blair, ILB - Cincinnati (357)
Marcus Whitfield, OLB - Maryland (314)
Jonathan Dowling, FS - Western Kentucky (273)
Brock Vereen, SS - Minnesota (322)
Dexter McDougle, CB - Maryland (257)

* Why? Because it's Rutgers!

 

[captain stone]

While I understand that, the problem is simply, "Who does he take snaps from?"

For example, with Nate Solder, they didn't see him starting in 2011, but they saw the writing on the wall with Light, and knew that Solder would be starting in 2012.

But here, Ninkovich and Jones will both be signed through 2016. So how do you get Murphy on the field enough to justify taking him in the first?

Because one can never have enough Pass-Rushers, as Bill's heretofore futile attempts
since the Good Old Days to develop a 3rd one have demonstrated.

 

[ATippett56]

Because one can never have enough Pass-Rushers, as Bill's heretofore futile attempts
since the Good Old Days to develop a 3rd one have demonstrated.

Isn't it a little too early to give up on defensive end Michael Buchanan let alone defensive tackle Armond Armstead?

Official Website of the New England Patriots | Team - Players

 

[mayoclinic]

Isn't it a little too early to give up on defensive end Michael Buchanan let alone defensive tackle Armond Armstead?

Official Website of the New England Patriots | Team - Players

I for one am certainly not giving up on them, as I indicated in my mock. I was the first person on the Armstead bandwagon, and am high on both.

You can never have too many pass rushers.

 

[ATippett56]

I for one am certainly not giving up on them, as I indicated in my mock. I was the first person on the Armstead bandwagon, and am high on both.

You can never have too many pass rushers.

Another option to consider prior to the 2014 NFL Draft:

Source: Patriots work out DE Cordarro Law - New England Patriots Blog - ESPN

Cordarro Law | Southern Miss, DE : 2012 NFL Draft Scout Player Profile

 

[mayoclinic]

I too really really like Mayo's mock, though in rounds 6 & 7 I would be looking at
the best remaining coverage OLBs, if that position had not yet been addressed.

If Kyle Van Noy somehow slipped to the end of the second round, it would be a tossup for me between him and one of Pryor/Joyner/Fuller.

 

[captain stone]

Isn't it a little too early to give up on defensive end Michael Buchanan let alone defensive tackle Armond Armstead?

Official Website of the New England Patriots | Team - Players

Not giving up on them: I consider Armstead more a gap-penetrating interior defender
than an upfield edge defender, and I'm not not going to consider early Pass-Rushers
just because 7th-rounder Buchanan is on the roster. If he contributes, then all the better;
but I'm not going to exclusively depend on that happening.

 

[mayoclinic]

Not giving up on them: I consider Armstead more a gap-penetrating interior defender
than an upfield edge defender, and I'm not not going to consider early Pass-Rushers
just because 7th-rounder Buchanan is on the roster. If he contributes, then all the better;
but I'm not going to exclusively depend on that happening.

Agreed.

I have hopes that Armstead can be an Inside/Outside guy - a 3-Tech who can penetrate, but also a guy who can play 3-4 DE or 4-3 LDE in a 4-3 under scheme. He's not a classic edge rusher, but he fits outside in both those fronts. But until he's proven that he can get on the field and shows us what he can do, it would be silly to count on much.

As for Buchanan, he showed nice flashes as a sub rusher, and hopefully will make a 2nd year leap. But again, even if he develops, I would still see plenty of room for another edge player.

 

[Ochmed Jones]

Agreed.

I have hopes that Armstead can be an Inside/Outside guy - a 3-Tech who can penetrate, but also a guy who can play 3-4 DE or 4-3 LDE in a 4-3 under scheme. He's not a classic edge rusher, but he fits outside in both those fronts. But until he's proven that he can get on the field and shows us what he can do, it would be silly to count on much.

As for Buchanan, he showed nice flashes as a sub rusher, and hopefully will make a 2nd year leap. But again, even if he develops, I would still see plenty of room for another edge player.

I agree on Buchanan, he needs an off season to get stronger and learn the defense better.

As for Armstead, it is really hard to know what we have with him until he gets on the field and stays on the field. We could get a gap slicer in the draft by drafting Kelce of SC, I think he had almost 10 sacks this past year from the DT position and that is in the SEC.

 

[ATippett56]

2014 New England Patriots Mock Draft - 1/9/13

Straight Up - No Screwing Around

Round 1 - Odell Beckham Jr., WR - LSU (34)

Round 2 - DaQuan Jones, DT - Penn State (69)

Round 3 - Bryan Stork, C - Florida State (113)

Round 4 - Marcel Jensen, TE - Fresno State (129)

Round 6 - Justin Britt, OT - Missouri (191)

Round 6 - Nevin Lawson, CB - Utah State (206)

Round 6 Compensatory - James White, RB - Wisconsin (220)

Round 6 Compensatory - Trey Millard, FB - Oklahoma (268)

Round 7 - Spencer Long, OG - Nebraska (284)

Parenthesis - NFLDraftScout Overall Rankings

NFL Draft - 2014 NFL Draft Prospects - CBSSports.com - NFLDraftScout.com

Note: NFLDraftScout Overall Rankings dated 1/7/2013

Collegiate UDFAs (potential diamonds in the rough):

Garrett Gilbert, QB - SMU (271)
Zac Kerin, OC - Toledo (279)
Chris Burnette, OG - Georgia (262)
Matt Patchan, OT - Boston College (289)
Roderick McDowell, RB - Clemson (400)
Jordan Najvar, TE - Baylor (356)
Quincy Enunwa, WR - Nebraska (269)
Ken Bishop, DT - Northern Illinois (286)
Jamil Merrill, DE - Rutgers (372)
Greg Blair, ILB - Cincinnati (357)
Marcus Whitfield, OLB - Maryland (314)
Jonathan Dowling, FS - Western Kentucky (273)
Brock Vereen, SS - Minnesota (322)
Dexter McDougle, CB - Maryland (257)