The 2014 Mock draft Thread.

[Luxusdk]

Lovely mock as always Mayo. But im wondering why you not haveing a WR ??

 

[patsfaninpa]

I like Mayo's mock. Just a general thought about the safety position. It sure seems the NFL is eliminating the big-hit from the game. I'd rather have two coverage safeties. Heck, you get 15 yards for clean hits these days. We had the perfect SS for today's game back in the 80's. Roland James. He played CB in college. We had Haynes and Clayborn. So, we moved him to safety. Would like someone like him.

 

[manxman2601]

I like Mayo's mock. Just a general thought about the safety position. It sure seems the NFL is eliminating the big-hit from the game. I'd rather have two coverage safeties. Heck, you get 15 yards for clean hits these days. We had the perfect SS for today's game back in the 80's. Roland James. He played CB in college. We had Haynes and Clayborn. So, we moved him to safety. Would like someone like him.

If he wasn't 5'8", I'd want Lamarcus Joyner. Heck, I want him despite that. Unfortunately, I'm not sure BB would.

 

[stelfans]

Loved that Mayo draft, as usual amazing job.
Swanson, Pryor, Dowling, Rodgers, Urban!!!, Millard...great great job.

I would change Turner to Bitonio and add a linebacker but thats just nitpicking.
Great to see him back in here.

 

[JerseyShore99]

Elvis Fisher (IR) was, a couple of years ago, talked of as being one of the better LTs in college football and Braxston Cave (PS) was an accomplished college center. I'm not saying they should be all but it's not like there isn't any potential depth already.

Cave can definitely make the 2014 roster, his versatility as a C, G, and even LS will make BB fall in love and save a roster spot or two for more talent

 

[JerseyShore99]

Haven't been around for a while, but here's a quick and dirty take, with a bit of optimism.

FA and Down the Road (may not all happen before the draft):

- Pats re-sign CB Aqib Talib, WR/PR Julian Edelman, RB LeGarrette Blount, LB Dane Fletcher, DT Sealver Siliga, LS Danny Aiken.
- Brandon Spikes and Ryan Wendell walk in FA
- Pats sign Josh Kline, and re-sign Nick McDonald; Dan Connolly is a cap casualty. Will Svitek would be worth resigning if the Pats can find the $$$
- Pats cut Isaac Sopoaga; Tommy Kelly restructures for lower $$$; Vince Wilfork either restructures or the Pats sign a UFA DT such as Linvale Joseph (Giants)
- Pats sign UFA TE Brandon Pettigrew (Detroit)

Draft

- Pats trade Ryan Mallett to Cleveland for #36 or to Houston for #33. If not now, never, and this is just a mock, so why not?

1. Trent Murphy, DE, Stanford. 6'6" 265#.
I predict Murphy will be a better pro than Jadeveon Clowney, and a perfect fit for the Pats. Chandler Jones played 98.1% of the defensive snaps in 2013 and Rob Ninkovich 95.6%, and that's too much. Andre Carter has nothing yet, Jake Bequette has done nothing in 2 years, and Michael Buchanan is promising but hasn't proven he will be more than a situational player. I see DE as a bigger need than DT once everything gets sorted out. Murphy is a blue collar guy who is a bigger, stronger, faster, more athletic Ninkovich, with incredible toughness and intensity. He'll be a mixture of Chris Long and JJ Watt. Kony Ealy is intriguing, but Murphy will be a stud.
2a. Travis Swanson, OC, Arkansas. 6'4" 318#
Swanson will be another Alex Mack/Eric Woods, and another perfect fit for the Pats. He has great size, experience, intelligence and athleticism.
2b. Calvin Pryor, S, Louisville. 6'2" 208#.
Pryor is a heavy hitter with decent range, who will complement Devin McCourty nicely. Think Dashon Goldson. Lamarcus Joyner or Kyle Fuller would be nice, too.
3. Richard Rogers, TE/H-Back, Cal. 6'4" 245#.
Rogers is way underrated right now. He's a poor man's Eric Ebron (and not that much poorer), at much better value.
4. Billy Turner, OL, North Dakota St. 6'6" 314#.
6a (from Philly). Jonathan Dowling, DB, Western Kentucky. 6' 2 1/2" 198#. Dowling is a big time talent who was recruited to Florida by Urban Meyer, and kicked off for violating team rules. He's been clean for 2 years at Western Kentucky. He can play FS or CB.
6b. Brent Urban, DT/DE, Virginia. 6'7
Draftinsider (Tony Pauline's site) rates Urban as a 2nd round talent. He has been the best player on Virginia's defense. He was recruited by Al Groh to play 3-4 DE, but has played mostly 4-3 DT. Urban and Armond Armstead (assuming he recovers and comes back) would provide nice options who can play both inside and outside on the DL.
6 (projected comp). Trey Millard, FB/H-Back, Oklahoma. 6'3" 253#.
I expect James Develin to stick next year, but the Pats could still find room for Millard, who is an all-purpose guy with tremendous versality. He and Rogers will provide what we missed this year with Aaron Hernandez behind bars.
6 (projected comp). De'Anthony Thomas, XB, Oregon. 5'9" 170#.
Thomas' stock has plummeted, but he is great value here and worth a shot. The Pats need an all-purpose backup to Shane Vereen. Thomas will be a nightmare matchup, and is deadly in space. If the Pats wanted a bigger receiving back, UCF's Storm Johnson could be an option here.
7. Logan Thomas, QB, Virginia Tech. 6'6" 254#.
Worth a shot this late. His mechanics are terrible, but the potential is there. If the Pats do trade Mallett they will bring in a low cost veteran backup TB.

Very favorable review from myself, starts out very well and just went down a little IMO, only a little. Although I don't know if we need a DE, Murphy is a prospect BB will absolutely love. Besides his skill, he offers leadership and smarts.
Swanson is another great pick if we don't keep Wendell or if cave doesn't look to be in future plans. If not for Swanson, try to draft a top tier TE if they fell this low.
Pryor is another great value pick I'm not sure the need is there with McCourty and either A. Wilson, Harmon, or the smarts of Gregory back there. Rogers is an interesting prospect I don't know too much about currently but seems to be very talented and athletic, I do prefer Arthur Lynch from UGA after Amaro and ASJ however, IMO.
Billy Turner has great size, interesting prospect.
Not a huge fan of Urban but he interests me.
I love the Millard pick and find it very realistic, I think of him as Vereen 2.0. BB can have a field day with that. After taking Millard the need for DAT has declined but he is a great steal, real versatile and explosive. It's unrealistic to me however.
And again I'd rather draft a passing QB from SEC (Murray, McCarron, Mettenberger) early than take a late round project. If BB were to take on a project like Thomas though, I'd want it to be Connor Shaw from SC.
One of my more favorable mocks I've seen in here though, nice job

 

[Wilfork#75]

If he wasn't 5'8", I'd want Lamarcus Joyner. Heck, I want him despite that. Unfortunately, I'm not sure BB would.

If he was 5'11" he would be a top 15 pick, I love his game and I too would take him despite his size. I agree though, BB probably doesn't see it that way.

 

[mayoclinic]

Lovely mock as always Mayo. But im wondering why you not haveing a WR ??

JMHO, but ...

1. I like the young group we have with Dobson, Thompkins and Boyce. WRs generally take up to 3 years to fully develop, and for my money all 3 of these guys have shown promise. They were thrown into the fray too soon by necessity and had some rough patches, and then injuries, but I think they will be a solid group. Add in Amendola - who has earned at least a second year to prove he is worth his contract, given the cap hit of cutting him, and who showed signs of being really good when healthy - and hopefully Edelman, plus TJ Moe and Mark Harrison coming off of IR years, and it's not a huge position of need. I love this year's WR class (better than last year's class, which was very good), but there's no way I'd spend a high pick on most of the 1st or 2nd round projected WRs without giving this year's group more time to show what they can do.

2. I generally don't favor drafting WRs high. I think you can get very good ones late, even in FA. This weekend the Pats will have Danny Amendola (UDFA), Julian Edelman (UDFA) and Kenbrell Thompkins (UDFA) as likely their top 3 healthy prospects going up against the Colts with TY Hilton (4th round), Da'Rick Rogers (UDFA - I had a 2nd round grade on him aside from the off-field baggage) and Grif Whalen (UDFA). Not to mention Wes Welker, Marques Colston, and many others. Meanwhile Calvin Johnson has made the playoffs once in 7 years, and AJ Green has never won a playoff game, for all their undisputed ability. I just don't think it's the way I would build a team. I generally wouldn't use a 1st round pick on a WR, and never a top 10 pick - it's just not a position that I value enough.

3. I DO see value to getting a big WR as a red zone target. Hopefully Dobson can develop, and maybe Harrison will become a hybrid WR/TE threat, but I think that a there's a premium to having guys who can be red zone targets. We have plenty of guys who can move the chains, and there's great value to that, but ultimately the game is about scoring TDs in the red zone, and the loss of Gronk hurt us tremendously in that respect. That's part of why I'd like to pick up a veteran TE like Brandon Pettigrew or Scott Chandler in FA if the price is reasonable. Imagine being able to line up in the red zone if LeGarrette Blount behind James Develin and Gronk and Pettigrew lines up as in-line TEs, with one tall WR lined out wide. Very tough to stop.

I could see someone like Kelvin Benjamin being worth a high 2nd round pick. Benjamin is very rough still, but he proved his value as a red zone target with the game on the line. You can't teach that. I could see taking Benjamin with my 2a pick and then a center like Brian Stork in the 3rd as an alternative. I could also see taking a big WR like Brandon Coleman instead of Richard Rogers in the 3rd. I generally think TE (both inline and "move" TEs, of what OTG calls "FlexEnds") have more versatility than WRs, but that's just me.

That's probably more than you wanted, but hope it clarifies things.

 

[mayoclinic]

I like Mayo's mock. Just a general thought about the safety position. It sure seems the NFL is eliminating the big-hit from the game. I'd rather have two coverage safeties. Heck, you get 15 yards for clean hits these days. We had the perfect SS for today's game back in the 80's. Roland James. He played CB in college. We had Haynes and Clayborn. So, we moved him to safety. Would like someone like him.

If he wasn't 5'8", I'd want Lamarcus Joyner. Heck, I want him despite that. Unfortunately, I'm not sure BB would.

I struggled with that one. You may not I listed Pryor but added that "Lamarcus Joyner or Kyle Fuller would work as well", or something to that effect. I love Joyner, and I'd be more than happy if things went that way, but he is undersized. Kyle Fuller could have nice versatility as a hybrid. One reason I went with Pryor in my mock (who is not just an "in the box" safety, though he's not someone you'd put in many coverage) is that I think Jonathan Dowling can develop very nicely into that role. But again, I'd be thrilled with any of Pryor/Joyner/Fuller in the late 2nd.

 

[Snake Eyes]

It's great to have you back, Mayo.

 

[mayoclinic]

Although I don't know if we need a DE, Murphy is a prospect BB will absolutely love. Besides his skill, he offers leadership and smarts.

We have 9 DTs currently under contract (Wilfork, Kelly, Sapoaga, Jones, Siliga, Vellano, Armstead, Forston, Grissom) and will only 4 DEs (Jones, Ninkovich, Buchanan, Bequette). Bequette hasn't proven that he can contribute, and Buchanan needs to make a leap to be a significant factor. Even assuming that Sapoaga is cut (pretty much a certainty) and that there will be some shake-out, we have some guys who've proven that they can be significant contributors and some other guys with considerable upside. Armstead could play a role at DE as well as DT, but his situation is too much of an unknown right now to count on. Imagine what would have happened if Ninkovich or Jones had gone down this season. Dont'a Hightower could possibly move to DE, but he's not terribly experienced there. Ninkovich will be 30 in a few weeks. All things considered, I think there is a big need to get a 3rd DE who will have a significant impact. You can never have too many quality lineman or pass rushers, and I'd love to see us "overload" at the position the way the Giants have done in the past, or the way that Cincinnati, Seattle and Carolina currently do.

At one point I had Ra'Shede Hageman at the top of my draft board. He's a beast. I've been following both Hageman and Murphy for years, and love both. Wouldn't be unhappy either way. But I personally think that DE is a bigger need, and Murphy is a perfect fit. BB would love his toughness, physicality, intelligence, leadership, consistency, drive and versatility. He can play 4-3 DE, 3-4 OLB and probably 3-4 DE if he bulks up a bit. His 6'6" frame can easily add another 10-15 lbs. He has long arms and is adept at clogging the passing lanes. He is a strong edge setter. He is not a speed demon and may not test off the charts compared with someone like Kony Ealy, but he has tremendous body control and balance and great movement skills for a guy his size, along with a nice repertoire of moves. And he one of the nastiest, toughest SOBs you will ever see. He's got the same kind of drive and motor that JJ Watt has. The conventional wisdom is that Murphy is a "high floor/low ceiling" guy, but I think his ceiling is through the roof.

love the Millard pick and find it very realistic, I think of him as Vereen 2.0. BB can have a field day with that. After taking Millard the need for DAT has declined but he is a great steal, real versatile and explosive. It's unrealistic to me however.

Wilfork#75 has been Millard's champion. He has a great Swiss army knife kind of weapon who could be terrific in the Pats' offense. But he's 6'3" 253#. Vereen is 5'10" 210#. DAT is 5'9" 170#. They all have running/receiving skills, but they are by no means identical, and there's room to use all 3 creatively. OTG has done a great job on his website of listing the amazing talent at "FlexWing" in this draft. There are a lot of guys who are projected as late round/UDFAs who should be highly productive, just as Danny Woodhead was. DAT is currently projected as a 6th-7th round prospect, and I don't think he's out of the question in that range. If not him, there are numerous others.

I'd rather draft a passing QB from SEC (Murray, McCarron, Mettenberger) early than take a late round project. If BB were to take on a project like Thomas though, I'd want it to be Connor Shaw from SC.
One of my more favorable mocks I've seen in here though, nice job

I'm all for getting a QB. I didn't know where to fit one in in this mock. I'm not that high on McCarron or Murray, personally. Brett Smith is the most intriguing guy to me, but he's projected to be a day 2 prospect right now.

 

[Snake Eyes]

Wilfork#75 has been Millard's champion. He has a great Swiss army knife kind of weapon who could be terrific in the Pats' offense. But he's 6'3" 253#. Vereen is 5'10" 210#. DAT is 5'9" 170#. They all have running/receiving skills, but they are by no means identical, and there's room to use all 3 creatively.

I love the idea of Millard and Vereen on the field at the same time, the potential to switch on the fly would open up incredible mismatch capabilities. If we were to pick up another TE who can both block and catch and we'd be looking at a Randy Marsh scenario.

 

[JerseyShore99]

You'd spend a first on a DE like Murphy, who I love, instead of a TE like Amaro or ASJ? I don't get that at all, why spend a top 30 pick on a player of depth instead of an immediate starter?

 

[mayoclinic]

You'd spend a first on a DE like Murphy, who I love, instead of a TE like Amaro or ASJ? I don't get that at all, why spend a top 30 pick on a player of depth instead of an immediate starter?

I don't care much about "starter" designation. I think that by the time the season is over, Murphy would get plenty of snaps to merit a selection at that point. You can never have too many good linemen or pass rushers, and Murphy's versatility would allow BB/Patricia to do a lot of creative things.

I like Amaro, but think he's overhyped. I think ASJ is very good as a red zone target and "move the chains" guy but has limited separation or explosiveness. Brandon Pettigrew as a UFA would provide much the same capability as ASJ, and Richard Rogers would provide a lot of the capability of Amaro at a fraction of the draft price. But regardless, I'd take a stud lineman over either any day.

 

[captain stone]

I too really really like Mayo's mock, though in rounds 6 & 7 I would be looking at
the best remaining coverage OLBs, if that position had not yet been addressed.

 

[kennyb]

Scout over at national football post has Richard Rogers as an udfa type. Total jag from what he wrote. Doesn't understand why he came out. Amaro is also big enough to block inline.

 

[manxman2601]

Scout over at national football post has Richard Rogers as an udfa type. Total jag from what he wrote. Doesn't understand why he came out. Amaro is also big enough to block inline.

And guys I follow online have Rodgers as a mid round prospect which is what he probably is. Guy is pretty darn quick. Tony Pauline also pegged him as a second rounder and Pauline gets info from the teams. So who knows.

And just in case we do pick him, can we establish here and now that it's Rodgers (at least according to the Cal website).

 

[ctpatsfan77]

I don't care much about "starter" designation. I think that by the time the season is over, Murphy would get plenty of snaps to merit a selection at that point. You can never have too many good linemen or pass rushers, and Murphy's versatility would allow BB/Patricia to do a lot of creative things.

While I understand that, the problem is simply, "Who does he take snaps from?"

For example, with Nate Solder, they didn't see him starting in 2011, but they saw the writing on the wall with Light, and knew that Solder would be starting in 2012.

But here, Ninkovich and Jones will both be signed through 2016. So how do you get Murphy on the field enough to justify taking him in the first?

 

[Wilfork#75]

Brilliant work as always mayo. I would be extremely happy if we ended up with this. I personally see DT as a bigger need than you, but I understand your reasoning and agree that Trent Murphy is a stud. The only pick I don't like would be trying to develop Logan Thomas as a QB, but maybe that's just because I'm bitter that he lost me a lot of money this year throwing games away How can I not love any draft that has my binkie Trey Millard in it though. Great job!

 

[nekromantique]

While I understand that, the problem is simply, "Who does he take snaps from?"

For example, with Nate Solder, they didn't see him starting in 2011, but they saw the writing on the wall with Light, and knew that Solder would be starting in 2012.

But here, Ninkovich and Jones will both be signed through 2016. So how do you get Murphy on the field enough to justify taking him in the first?

There is always the possibility of playing inside (as with jones), and ninkovich occasionally playing LB (seeing as spikes would be gone and mayo mentioned no lb in the Draft or FA portion)

Also, simply bringing their total snaps from over 95% down to somewhere around 85-90% MAY help manage their health.