Thompson and Dobson tied for 2nd with most drops, Edelman tied for 4th in NFL

[Archeryaddict12]

What is your definition of "improved"? Dobson has the same number of drops as Thompkins on fewer targets and his 4th down drop Sunday was the most important drop of the season. Not a lot of data to make a case for a trend and the unreliability of the receivers has been a problem that might or might not improve over time. Collie had two big catches during the winning drive and I expect to see more of him Sunday. With injuries to Amendola and Edelman, and Boyce demoted to inactive, I would not be surprised to see them bring in help at the position as Pioli suggested.

Show me where he had more drops. I only recall the 4th down one. There could have been more but I don't remember. I want to see the statistics please. Not calling you out, I just want to see them.

And if you don't think he has improved, why was he starting with Edelman over KT. It means he has improved.

 

[Dr Pain]

Edelman was a beast in the last game. He took massive hits. Some of the drops were when he was put in harms way really bad. He had one catch on that last drive he had no right hanging onto with the hit he took.

 

[Brady_to_Moss]

Edelman was a beast in the last game. He took massive hits. Some of the drops were when he was put in harms way really bad. He had one catch on that last drive he had no right hanging onto with the hit he took.

Edelman also looked like he played the 2nd half hurt...got up from catches very very slow

 

[Mack Herron]

Show me where he had more drops. I only recall the 4th down one. There could have been more but I don't remember. I want to see the statistics please. Not calling you out, I just want to see them.

And if you don't think he has improved, why was he starting with Edelman over KT. It means he has improved.

I said they had the same number of drops. I never said "he had more drops" so I don't even know what you are talking about here. I am talking about drops on the season. Stats are here:
Dropped Passes - 2013 NFL Season Statistics

I was simply asking why you think he has improved. Dobson starting on Sunday is not evidence that he is improving his drop rate. There are a host of other factors that go into such a decision (match-ups, a particular play they want to run, etc.).

 

[BradyFTW!]

How many other passes did he drop beyond that one? And looks at how many targets he had and catches. Go back to the jets game and compare, he has improved. Both of them.

He had another drop - and a particularly bad one, at that - on the first play from scrimmage of the game.

The right approach to look at this is that despite arbitrary statistics like this, the team is still 5-1. Drops are a correctable issue. The offense only stands to improve as the season goes on.

I'm not (overly) worried about this.

I agree that it is likely to improve, but how are drops an 'arbitrary' statistic? Pretty cut and dry if you ask me, and pretty definitively a bad thing that you don't want.

I would value drop percentage over the actual number of drops. Dobson and Thompkins both see a lot of targets and they're not #2 in percentage dropped so that number is flawed.

If you just look at WRs, you get the following:

1. Markus Wheaton: 33.3%
2. Tavon Austin: 17.1%
3. Aaron Dobson: 16.2%
4. Keshawn Martin: 14.3%
4. Nick Toon: 14.3%
6. Josh Morgan: 13.3%
6. Earl Bennett: 13.3%
8. Clyde Gates: 12.5%
8. Mike Brown: 12.5%
8. Ryan Broyles: 12.5%
8. Kenbrell Thompkins: 12.5%

Pretty clear, IMO, that they're both unacceptably high on the list. Also worth noting that almost every receiver on that list is young and inexperienced which pretty strongly suggests that at least one of the following is true:

1. These issues are correctable
2. Players who don't correct it don't last very long in the NFL

Of the two, I'd say that it's mostly #1, with a bit of #2 in there as well.

 

[RobAllan]

Dobson is definitely a drop machine. Since he wasn't during college, I'd have to assume the variables are:

-Defensive Reads/Route Adjustments at Pro Level
-Needing to catch passes while not wide open
-Velocity of ball being delivered by QB
-Quality of coverage personnel (not quite same as #2, but related)
-Nerves

This all leads me to believe he can be a legit 1 or 2 type receiver as those bugs get worked out. The question is whether he can work those bugs out THIS season or not. I think that aspect of it is a tall order. Some of those things might take 2-3 years to get adjusted to.

I'm not worried about him long-term, I'm just not expecting jaw-dropping improvement in the remaining games.

 

[Deus Irae]

1.) The drop numbers are underreporting just how many drops the Patriots WRs have.

2.) With Thompkins and Dobson being such good friends, they can go halfsies on a juggs machine this offseason and, hopefully, keep inspiring one another to use the thing.

 

[Danger Zone]

1.) The drop numbers are underreporting just how many drops the Patriots WRs have.

2.) With Thompkins and Dobson being such good friends, they can go halfsies on a juggs machine this offseason and, hopefully, keep inspiring one another to use the thing.

2). They can help pay for it with the bonus post-season money they make for winning the Superbowl.

 

[Harrisoned!]

Only Detroit's 22 drops are in range of the Patriots 23 drops as a team. Now, NE passes more than most, so their 23 as a % of the total might not lead the league, but they are almost invariably in the top 3 for % dropped.

Edelman is most concerning to me; coming into 2013, he had only 7 drops on 108 targets. Unsurprisingly, 5 of those drops were as a rookie. Generally speaking, rookies drop more passes than non-rookies (that's why you see Tavon Austin leading the league in drops).

 

[Ozymandias]

I agree that it is likely to improve, but how are drops an 'arbitrary' statistic? Pretty cut and dry if you ask me, and pretty definitively a bad thing that you don't want.

Nowhere did anyone say drops are a good thing.

Without proper context those statistics are precisely 'cut and dry'. And that's what makes them arbitrary. No mention is being made about the cause and the effect. Or in layman terms, those drops are just viewed as drops, disregarding whether the pass was even completely catchable, what the coverage was, how the defender was playing the ball, etc.

 

[BradyFTW!]

Nowhere did anyone say drops are a good thing.

Without proper context those statistics are precisely 'cut and dry'. And that's what makes them arbitrary. No mention is being made about the cause and the effect. Or in layman terms, those drops are just viewed as drops, disregarding whether the pass was even completely catchable, what the coverage was, how the defender was playing the ball, etc.

In order to have a drop recorded, the ball must have hit your hands, which is basically the definition of 'completely catchable'.

 

[TruthSeeker]

Listen, it sucks, we all know this. Dobson's drop on 4th down was horrendous. The fact that Brady went to him after an earlier drop in the game is a positive. Also, if you watched the highlights from the game of the week last night, obviously Brady likes Dobson and Thompkins, you can hear him yelling "Let's go AD, let's go K", and "we got this AD". I think they will both improve and be big parts of this offense for years to come.

I posted an article about Jerry Rice and all his problems dropping the ball in his rookie year, and possibly the greatest of all time, Joe Montana, kept going back to him. Now, not comparing those 2 to Rice, but if the greatest receiver of all time had problems holding on to the ball his rookie season, and obviously improved afterwards, there's no saying these 2 can't improve. Especially since there was evidence in the past that Dobson has good hands (several rated him as having the best hands in the draft). They are both on pace to have 50+ catches. I'm concerned, but also excited about their potential. They really have no choice, but to improve or disappear.

 

[Ozymandias]

In order to have a drop recorded, the ball must have hit your hands, which is basically the definition of 'completely catchable'.

That's arbitrary and looking at it from its most basic premise. You're still not taking into account other factors. What are the conditions of the game? How catchable is a slippery wet ball when you're playing in a monsoon? Or how accurate was said pass when you tried to catch it, and had to contort your entire body just to get your hands on it? Or what was the velocity on the pass when it hit you in the hands?

These things are unaccounted for in these statistics, thus they do not give a clear and concise picture of what caused the drops. Sometimes drops are much the QB's fault as the receiver's, or as much the defender making a great play than just a flat-out easily catchable pass being dropped under no variable circumstance.

If things are these are not factored into the equation, how can they not be taken at face value? The drops are a concern, but they're correctable. So I don't think the issue is these receivers are not sure-handed, I think they're learning as they go along, and overthinking sometimes. With experience these issues will be minimal over time.

I'm looking at it in the long view, rather than wasting my time worrying what happened in the past. What concerns me is what are these guys are going to do in the future.

 

[RelocatedPatFan]

Nowhere did anyone say drops are a good thing.

Without proper context those statistics are precisely 'cut and dry'. And that's what makes them arbitrary. No mention is being made about the cause and the effect. Or in layman terms, those drops are just viewed as drops, disregarding whether the pass was even completely catchable, what the coverage was, how the defender was playing the ball, etc.

Excellent point. Add to that, we also don't know how many times they've been put of position and Brady threw an incomplete.

If we weren't 5-1, the overall tone and positiveness of this thread would be very different (though the facts about the same). Winning helps cover alot of isssues.

 

[JPsPats]

Demariyus Thomas struggled with drops his rookie season. It take's time adjusting to the velocity of NFL throws and how fast the ball gets to you out of a break. In college these receivers were wide open and a lot of balls werent thrown with much velocity or took it longer to get there giving them more time. This is common in almost every position in terms of the game being very fast for young players. They will Settle in, and Thompkins' game winning TD was a HUGE step in the right direction.

I would rather my receiver catch important passes instead of catching 100 passes and droping the most important ones, Wes :singing:.

Sorry, I had to lol.

 

[Archeryaddict12]

Demariyus Thomas struggled with drops his rookie season. It take's time adjusting to the velocity of NFL throws and how fast the ball gets to you out of a break. In college these receivers were wide open and a lot of balls werent thrown with much velocity or took it longer to get there giving them more time. This is common in almost every position in terms of the game being very fast for young players. They will Settle in, and Thompkins' game winning TD was a HUGE step in the right direction.

I would rather my receiver catch important passes instead of catching 100 passes and droping the most important ones, Wes :singing:.

Sorry, I had to lol.

Yep, and with the logic Dobson dropping the most important pass shows he can't be that good/catch well, welker really sucked. He couldn't catch any important passes to win games (super bowl and AFCCG 2012)

 

[Deus Irae]

It didn't take long for this thread to become a trainwreck....

 

[Dagg]

Excellent article on Jerry Rice who has the same struggles.

FOOTBALL OUTSIDERS: Innovative Statistics, Intelligent Analysis | Too Deep Zone: Jerry Rice, Rookie Bust

"Rice, the team's top draft pick, had 26 receptions in 11 games, but he also dropped 10 balls, some of them at the worst possible times."

 

[dales804]

Edelman also looked like he played the 2nd half hurt...got up from catches very very slow

And he took a huge hit on that last drive, too. I know people say he's made of glass but the guy goes all out for this team.

 

[DaBruinz]

Andelman has a 67% catch rate - 2 completions out of 3 or higher is right where youd like to see the NE WRs.

Thompkins has a 42% catch rate - in the past, Brady would not even look at a WR in this range. Thompkins best game was vs the Saints IMO.

Dobbs has a 51% catch rate - same for Dobbs. Andelman had a 50 something % catch rate a few years ago and Brady almost ignored him as an option.

FOOTBALL OUTSIDERS: Innovative Statistics, Intelligent Analysis | WIDE RECEIVERS 2013

Look how low the NE WRs are in the standings? Brady is winning with a group thats learning and only gaining more confidence and experience. You can see Dobbs and Thompkins improvement from game 1. Andelman is improving as well making some clutch grabs. I have high hopes for Collie too and if they dont amputate Gronks arm as Dues has implied, his return will surely bring forth positive results.

For the Saints game at least, Brady is back spreading the ball around to multiple targets similar to the Super Bowl championship seasons.

Hooman 4 rec for 57 yards
Dobbs 6 rec for 63 yards
Andelman 5 rec for 57 yards
Thompkins 3 rec for 45 yards

To me, this is a positive sign going forward because the Pats are back winning as a team and not fantasy stat players. No one NE WR or TE is lighting up the NFL. Look what happened when the Pats took away Gonzalez and Graham?

Catch rate is even more subjective because it includes things like passes defensed, bad throws by the QB and balls tipped at the line of scrimmage.