Cap implications of roster battles

[Urgent]

Assessing data from Miguel's site, you can determine the cap impact of some of the upcoming roster decisions.

QB
Tebow - only a $75K charge if released

RB
Blount - $605K savings if released, $75K charge
Bolden - only a $5K 2013 charge if released

WR
no real issues

TE
Fells - $667K unamortized bonus if released over two years
Hoomanawanui - no charge if released, tendered at $1.3mm

OL
No real issues

DT
No real issues - back-ups mostly UDFA's

DE
Cunningham - $309K unamortized bonus
Buchanan - $54K unamortized bonus
Bequette - $405K unamortized bonus

LB
No real issues

CB
Dowling - $1,178K unamortized bonus - ouch
Cole - no bonus

S
T Wilson - $1,130K unamortized bonus - ouch - he costs $555K more to release than keep
Ebner - $72K unamortized bonus

SO
Based on this:
Competition at TE, CB, and S has some implications on the cap.
Fells, Dowling, and Tavon Wilson are relatively expensive to cut.

That might not have a huge impact, but when all things are equal, keeping Fells, Dowling, and Wilson over Hoo-man, Cole, and Ebner are easier accounting decisions.

 

[mgteich]

Isn't much of this the bonus money that will be on our cap whether the player stays or not?
It doesn't cost us $405K to cut Bequette. The money you state has already been paid and will be in the cap no matter what.

On any of these, what we avoid is this year's salary (and any roster bonus). Sometimes this is worth saving. Obviously, this depends on how much the replacement player costs.

Assessing data from Miguel's site, you can determine the cap impact of some of the upcoming roster decisions.

QB
Tebow - only a $75K charge if released

RB
Blount - $605K savings if released, $75K charge
Bolden - only a $5K 2013 charge if released

WR
no real issues

TE
Fells - $667K unamortized bonus if released over two years
Hoomanawanui - no charge if released, tendered at $1.3mm

OL
No real issues

DT
No real issues - back-ups mostly UDFA's

DE
Cunningham - $309K unamortized bonus
Buchanan - $54K unamortized bonus
Bequette - $405K unamortized bonus

LB
No real issues

CB
Dowling - $1,178K unamortized bonus - ouch
Cole - no bonus

S
T Wilson - $1,130K unamortized bonus - ouch - he costs $555K more to release than keep
Ebner - $72K unamortized bonus

SO
Based on this:
Competition at TE, CB, and S has some implications on the cap.
Fells, Dowling, and Tavon Wilson are relatively expensive to cut.

That might not have a huge impact, but when all things are equal, keeping Fells, Dowling, and Wilson over Hoo-man, Cole, and Ebner are easier accounting decisions.

 

[ctpatsfan77]

Isn't much of this the bonus money that will be on our cap whether the player stays or not?
It doesn't cost us $405K to cut Bequette. The money you state has already been paid and will be in the cap no matter what.

On any of these, what we avoid is this year's salary (and any roster bonus). Sometimes this is worth saving. Obviously, this depends on how much the replacement player costs.

The only players who would INCREASE the 2013 cap if cut are:

Brady
Amendola
GRONK
C. Jones
Hightower
T. Wilson
Collins
Dobson

Of course, the only one in any danger of getting cut is Tavon Wilson.

 

[belichick010405]

I would like to see what Miguel has to offer on the decisions could make when it comes to the cap implications and the potential players that are not going to start and are being considered for the remaining 28 slots that do not include the starters on each side, the punter, placekicker, and long snapper.

From my view, most of the players that are not starting have cap implications that are not that considerable but I could be wrong.

 

[mgteich]

Miguel and others have provided the charts for us.

I would like to see what Miguel has to offer on the decisions could make when it comes to the cap implications and the potential players that are not going to start and are being considered for the remaining 28 slots that do not include the starters on each side, the punter, placekicker, and long snapper.

From my view, most of the players that are not starting have cap implications that are not that considerable but I could be wrong.

 

[ATippett56]

» Over the Cap- New England Patriots 2013 Salary Cap and Contracts

Any news on the Jonathan Fanene signing bonus recapture?

 

[mgteich]

I agree.

Only one of these is on the bubble, so let's discuss T Wilson for a sec.

It may cost a small amount in the 2013 cap to cut him, but the bonus money has to hit the cap sometime; when the money hits doesn't matter much. What does matter is that Wilson has a salary of under $600K. If he were replaced by Ebner, our total cap cost would not increase. We'd actually save $100K a year.

BTW, I am not suggesting cutting Wilson. I am just saying that the cost difference between Wilson and Ebner is not material. A sadder way of saying this is that Wilson's bonus money is long gone. We don't make that better by keeping him on the team.

The only players who would INCREASE the 2013 cap if cut are:

Brady
Amendola
GRONK
C. Jones
Hightower
T. Wilson
Collins
Dobson

Of course, the only one in any danger of getting cut is Tavon Wilson.

 

[ATippett56]

https://www.nflplayers.com/reports/RunPublicReport.aspx?report=top51

 

[Miguel]

I would like to see what Miguel has to offer on the decisions could make when it comes to the cap implications and the potential players that are not going to start and are being considered for the remaining 28 slots that do not include the starters on each side, the punter, placekicker, and long snapper.

With the Pats having close to $10.4 million in cap space it seems safe to presume that no one player is going to get cut because the Patriots need cap space.

New England Patriots Roster Projection v2, after two preseason games :All Things Pats

I used the above to project the Patriots cap space after the roster cutdowns.

Let's presume that Gronk is on PUP and the Pats pay Armstead and Mark Harrison while they start the season on NF/I.

T.J. Moe, Elvis Fisher, Quentin Hines and Tyronne Green are on IR.
The Patriots have a 8-man practice squad with a couple of them making more than the minimum bring the cost of having the squad a cool million dollars.

I then have the Patriots starting the season with $7.2 million in cap space which is more than enough to cover any NTLBEs reached and to pay for replacements for any injured players. If Gronk does not start the season on PuP, add 405K to the Patriots cap space.

 

[Fencer]

Mesko/Allen is a battle with obvious cost/cap space implications.

But as Miguel didn't quite say, for the Pats cap space this year is in part an asset they'll just roll into the future ... unless they surprise us by suddenly acquiring a rather expensive veteran.

(By "roll into the future" I mean either the incentives dodge, or simply giving guys new contracts and taking a lot of the hit this year.)

 

[Miguel]

Mesko/Allen is a battle with obvious cost/cap space implications.

But as Miguel didn't quite say, for the Pats cap space this year is in part an asset they'll just roll into the future ... unless they surprise us by suddenly acquiring a rather expensive veteran.

(By "roll into the future" I mean either the incentives dodge, or simply giving guys new contracts and taking a lot of the hit this year.)

The new CBA eliminated the need for the incentives dodge as teams can now simply declare how much space they want to carry over.

 

[ctpatsfan77]

T.J. Moe, Elvis Fisher, Quentin Hines and Tyronne Green are on IR.

FWIW, any word on split salaries?

 

[Miguel]

FWIW, any word on split salaries?

Based on what was reported with other UDFAS I am guessing that Moe, Fisher, and Hines all have split salaries.

Green's 1st contract with the Patriots had a split salary so I expect that his current one also does

 

[belichick010405]

With the Pats having close to $10.4 million in cap space it seems safe to presume that no one player is going to get cut because the Patriots need cap space.

New England Patriots Roster Projection v2, after two preseason games :All Things Pats

I used the above to project the Patriots cap space after the roster cutdowns.

Let's presume that Gronk is on PUP and the Pats pay Armstead and Mark Harrison while they start the season on NF/I.

T.J. Moe, Elvis Fisher, Quentin Hines and Tyronne Green are on IR.
The Patriots have a 8-man practice squad with a couple of them making more than the minimum bring the cost of having the squad a cool million dollars.

I then have the Patriots starting the season with $7.2 million in cap space which is more than enough to cover any NTLBEs reached and to pay for replacements for any injured players. If Gronk does not start the season on PuP, add 405K to the Patriots cap space.

That sounds about right Miguel. You are a wise man...

I am very glad to be a part of the community that you have been a part of for quite some time. I don't recall how long your website has been up but it is a great resource not to mention your calling for support to some local charities in Massachusetts.

Anyway - thanks for your input. Considering the cap situation, I agree with your sentiment that players are likely not going to be cut with the cap consideration as a concern.

 

[Hammer of Thor]

With the Pats having close to $10.4 million in cap space it seems safe to presume that no one player is going to get cut because the Patriots need cap space.

New England Patriots Roster Projection v2, after two preseason games :All Things Pats

I used the above to project the Patriots cap space after the roster cutdowns.

Let's presume that Gronk is on PUP and the Pats pay Armstead and Mark Harrison while they start the season on NF/I.

T.J. Moe, Elvis Fisher, Quentin Hines and Tyronne Green are on IR.
The Patriots have a 8-man practice squad with a couple of them making more than the minimum bring the cost of having the squad a cool million dollars.

I then have the Patriots starting the season with $7.2 million in cap space which is more than enough to cover any NTLBEs reached and to pay for replacements for any injured players. If Gronk does not start the season on PuP, add 405K to the Patriots cap space.

Miguel, I echo the voice of others thanking you for all your hard work -- you make us all more knowledgable and for that I owe you a debt of gratitude.

I would generally agree with your analysis, but I think there is a unique set of circumstances in place currently that makes 2013 cap space very valuable. Specifically, the fact that the CBA now allows the rolling forward of cap space, and the Hernandez $7.5M dead money hit in 2014.

The Pats have plenty of cap space for what they need to do in 2013. But in 2014, they've already got about $123M in salary cap space earmarked against an unadjusted projected cap of $125M. There are also 4 starters who will be free agents this offseason - Talib, Spikes, Ninkovich, and Wendell. The Pats cannot afford to let most, let alone all, of them go. Plus, there are other role players who we may really want to have back depending on how well they do this year (Edelperson, Mesko, Washington).

Yes, some space could be made in 2014 by dumping Gregory, Fells, and Connolly at that point (assuming they're all non-starters at that point). Yes, some space could be made with a Wilfork extension. But it's unfair and unrealistic to expect Big Vince to take a huge discount like Brady.

At the end of the day, the easiest way to create cap space for 2014 is to maximize 2013 cap space and carry it forward. Otherwise we're looking with a team with potential big holes at corner and defensive end again, and have to hope to hit a home run in the 2014 draft just to tread water.

Situation appears to clear up in 2015 once Hernandez is off the books.

 

[mgteich]

You believe that we will have a ONE year problem. one year problems have rarely been very taxing for the patriots Front Office.

You've given us most of the solution to the potential 2014 issues. Cut Fells and Gregory. Cut
Connolly. Also, we will have the Fenene credit. And yes, it is time for a Wilfork extension. Also, if needed there are several restructures that could add 2014 cap money.

Next year's big four (Talib, Ninkovich, Wendell and Spikes) is certainly no worse than this year's list was.

Miguel, I echo the voice of others thanking you for all your hard work -- you make us all more knowledgable and for that I owe you a debt of gratitude.

I would generally agree with your analysis, but I think there is a unique set of circumstances in place currently that makes 2013 cap space very valuable. Specifically, the fact that the CBA now allows the rolling forward of cap space, and the Hernandez $7.5M dead money hit in 2014.

The Pats have plenty of cap space for what they need to do in 2013. But in 2014, they've already got about $123M in salary cap space earmarked against an unadjusted projected cap of $125M. There are also 4 starters who will be free agents this offseason - Talib, Spikes, Ninkovich, and Wendell. The Pats cannot afford to let most, let alone all, of them go. Plus, there are other role players who we may really want to have back depending on how well they do this year (Edelperson, Mesko, Washington).

Yes, some space could be made in 2014 by dumping Gregory, Fells, and Connolly at that point (assuming they're all non-starters at that point). Yes, some space could be made with a Wilfork extension. But it's unfair and unrealistic to expect Big Vince to take a huge discount like Brady.

At the end of the day, the easiest way to create cap space for 2014 is to maximize 2013 cap space and carry it forward. Otherwise we're looking with a team with potential big holes at corner and defensive end again, and have to hope to hit a home run in the 2014 draft just to tread water.

Situation appears to clear up in 2015 once Hernandez is off the books.

 

[Hammer of Thor]

You believe that we will have a ONE year problem. one year problems have rarely been very taxing for the patriots Front Office.

You've given us most of the solution to the potential 2014 issues. Cut Fells and Gregory. Cut
Connolly. Also, we will have the Fenene credit. And yes, it is time for a Wilfork extension. Also, if needed there are several restructures that could add 2014 cap money.

Next year's big four (Talib, Ninkovich, Wendell and Spikes) is certainly no worse than this year's list was.

While you say that I gave most of the solution to the 2014 cap issue, there is still a large remainder. Hypothetical 2014 cap charges:
Talib: $6.5M
Ninkovich: $3.5M
Spikes: $3M
Wendell: $2M
Total: $15M.

I'm assuming Talib has a good year this year so he "earns" his big pay day.

Savings for my solution:
Fells: $1.25M
Gregory: $1.85M
Connolly: $2.5M
Wilfork extension: $4M (convert $7.5M base salary to 1.5M base, $6M bonus, 2 year extension at $6.5M base salary each year)
Total: $9.6M

There could be some money in a potential Mankins restructuring, but what if Mankins doesn't return to elite level this year? Do you want to take that risk? There's no real way to restructure anyone else (Mayo, Gronk) that could generate substantial savings.

A Fenene credit will be nice, but I'll believe it when it's official.

So my solution is only ~65% of the way there, and that is before considering supplemental free agents. Am I over budgeting and that those 4 won't cost that much? Very possible, but those estimates are the reason why I'm concerned.

Part of the reason why one year problems haven't been very taxing for the Patriots is because they take advantage of all avenues to obtain cap space. 2013 carry over cap space is one that I believe they need to really think strongly about for 2014. If it makes the team substantially worse in 2013, then no (i.e. I'd keep Mesko over Allen at this point based on game action), but otherwise I think it needs to be considered.

 

[mgteich]

Your analysis is fine. Wendell's money is low.

I don't think that we will re-sign Spikes. I do think that there are other restructures possible. Normal restructures do NOT entail risks. All that happens is that current year salary (over minimum) is guaranteed as a bonus). The Fanene money will come.

While you say that I gave most of the solution to the 2014 cap issue, there is still a large remainder. Hypothetical 2014 cap charges:
Talib: $6.5M
Ninkovich: $3.5M
Spikes: $3M
Wendell: $2M
Total: $15M.

I'm assuming Talib has a good year this year so he "earns" his big pay day.

Savings for my solution:
Fells: $1.25M
Gregory: $1.85M
Connolly: $2.5M
Wilfork extension: $4M (convert $7.5M base salary to 1.5M base, $6M bonus, 2 year extension at $6.5M base salary each year)
Total: $9.6M

There could be some money in a potential Mankins restructuring, but what if Mankins doesn't return to elite level this year? Do you want to take that risk? There's no real way to restructure anyone else (Mayo, Gronk) that could generate substantial savings.

A Fenene credit will be nice, but I'll believe it when it's official.

So my solution is only ~65% of the way there, and that is before considering supplemental free agents. Am I over budgeting and that those 4 won't cost that much? Very possible, but those estimates are the reason why I'm concerned.

Part of the reason why one year problems haven't been very taxing for the Patriots is because they take advantage of all avenues to obtain cap space. 2013 carry over cap space is one that I believe they need to really think strongly about for 2014. If it makes the team substantially worse in 2013, then no (i.e. I'd keep Mesko over Allen at this point based on game action), but otherwise I think it needs to be considered.