What is Slater's ST coverage play worth?

[BTTA]

FOOTBALL OUTSIDERS: Innovative Statistics, Intelligent Analysis | Special Teams Tackles 2012

So the guy is pretty phenomenal, according to these stats. He could be replaced by one of the other receivers on the team, who would presumably provide more offensive impact and some of the special teams coverage impact.

What are the metrics for evaluating this? How do you weight the value of the different types of contributions? How good would a receiver have to be, and a special teams replacement, to warrant this?

 

[Avenger]

wow. 100% return stop, that's impressive.

 

[Armchair Quarterback]

FOOTBALL OUTSIDERS: Innovative Statistics, Intelligent Analysis | Special Teams Tackles 2012

So the guy is pretty phenomenal, according to these stats. He could be replaced by one of the other receivers on the team, who would presumably provide more offensive impact and some of the special teams coverage impact.

What are the metrics for evaluating this? How do you weight the value of the different types of contributions? How good would a receiver have to be, and a special teams replacement, to warrant this?

He has taken his game up a notch the last couple of years and is invaluable on special teams. Easy answer - don't call him a WR, he's not going to contribute there anyway.

 

[ctpatsfan77]

FOOTBALL OUTSIDERS: Innovative Statistics, Intelligent Analysis | Special Teams Tackles 2012

So the guy is pretty phenomenal, according to these stats. He could be replaced by one of the other receivers on the team, who would presumably provide more offensive impact and some of the special teams coverage impact.

What are the metrics for evaluating this? How do you weight the value of the different types of contributions? How good would a receiver have to be, and a special teams replacement, to warrant this?

It wasn't for shiggles that Belichick gave him 3 years, $5.4M, $2M guaranteed, or, for that matter, that he's a 2x Pro Bowler.

 

[chasa]

what is a team captain who make the probowl worth every year?
Whatever bill decides to pay him.

 

[signbabybrady]

to keep it simple just sort of think of what it is worth to the defense if a play has a decent return compared to one that has virtually no return.

Lets assume there is a punt of 40 yards and Slater is the first guy there and makes the immediate stop or a rookie wr is there in his place and misses and the guy goes for an extra 5-10 before the next player can get to him. That at the very least will wind up as one or two less plays that the opposing O will have to run to score.

You could be more complicated and factor:

• STs tackles
• plus how many times he is one of the first guys there to help slow down the play so someone else can make it
• minus the number of STs tackles that occured further down field and were not great plays
• consider any fumbles or recoveries he might have had.

then there should be some sort of adjustment for if he was alone on the play or if someone else would have reasonably made it with little field position effected.

Not sure what the exact formula would be but you could probably add that and maybe some other factors up to some sort of acutual field position value. That would better allow to see its impact on the defense.

 

[BradyFTW!]

He has taken his game up a notch the last couple of years and is invaluable on special teams. Easy answer - don't call him a WR, he's not going to contribute there anyway.

Agreed. I liked it better when he was nominally a safety, but that didn't fit either. Bottom line is that he's ST-only.

 

[Fencer]

I think of Slater as a WR only in two extreme-depth ways:

1. If there's a play call that needs an extra WR body to drag a DB with him, even though we know there's little chance he'll beat single coverage.

2. Emergency against multiple injuries.

 

[primetime]

Slater is absolutely worth every dime as a special teamer, but it's actually a little surprising and a bit disappointing that he doesn't have any value at all as a receiver. He's got incredible foot speed and, as the league's premier gunner, is almost certainly among the best players in the entire NFL at fighting off a jam. Moreover, he's proven himself a good blocker for his size. Unfortunately, even with all those gifts it seems like he never picked up the hands or route-running necessary to be an even passable wideout. It won't hurt to keep trying, though.

 

[Off The Grid]

Slater is as much a "Wide Receiver" as Arrington is a "Defensive End."

Just because they're available to play a Position on an Emergency Basis doesn't mean that there's any need to distort appearances by listing them at the wrong Position.

This wouldn't even be an Issue if the NFL simply caught up to Reality and listed "Special Teams" as a Position.

 

[Froob]

It's not like its madden where you have to have a certain amount of each position. Who cares what he's listed as we can call them whatever we want and Slater ain't a wide out. Would rather call Troy Brown back up if it came to it.

 

[BTTA]

You guys can argue about the validity of the question all you want, but whether Slater makes the team as the last WR has been an ongoing, persistent question here on the board in every conversation about WR depth and roster spots.

If you want to change it to another position, or even create one for him as the fourth ST player, the question remains: how do we value a ST contribution vs. an offensive (or defensive) contribution? Especially since that other player would most likely also be playing special teams and making a contribution of his own?

I've not taken a position, just trying to inspire an intelligent conversation, which has at times been known to break out here. At times.

 

[primetime]

I've not taken a position, just trying to inspire an intelligent conversation, which has at times been known to break out here. At times.

So really you just wanted to rattle your intellectual saber and stick your nose up in lieu of actually adding anything to the conversation?

 

[Sciz]

He could be replaced by one of the other receivers on the team, who would presumably provide more offensive impact and some of the special teams coverage impact.

How much offensive impact do you expect a #5 or #6 WR to have in a two tight end base offense? The realistic answer is essentially 0, whether that player is Slater or any other real receiver.

 

[Salva135]

My eye test tells me that Slater does his job excellently - I just can't tell by that chart if significantly better than any of the others there, or what his value is.

It's no hate on Slater, I really like him, but what is the real value of a "return stop" and how much is a guy who gets that rate of "return stops" worth on a team vs. a replacement value guy?

The Pats obviously value Slater a lot at ST, so I guess a lot, I just wonder about FO's metrics.

It would also be interesting to see the contracts and non-ST stats these other guys provide. I've never heard of most of them (why they are ST guys, heh).

 

[RayClay]

My eye test tells me that Slater does his job excellently - I just can't tell by that chart if significantly better than any of the others there, or what his value is.

It's no hate on Slater, I really like him, but what is the real value of a "return stop" and how much is a guy who gets that rate of "return stops" worth on a team vs. a replacement value guy?

The Pats obviously value Slater a lot at ST, so I guess a lot, I just wonder about FO's metrics.

It would also be interesting to see the contracts and non-ST stats these other guys provide. I've never heard of most of them (why they are ST guys, heh).

Troy Brown was injured and replaced on special teams in the Super Bowl against green bay. Ask Bledsoe what the value of a "return stop" is.

 

[ctpatsfan77]

The Pats obviously value Slater a lot at ST, so I guess a lot, I just wonder about FO's metrics.

Here's a simple way of looking at it: Slater and, for that matter, Ebner are good enough at what they do that BB has had them active for pretty much every game they've been healthy.

And as I've said multiple times in the past, Belichick feels STs are important enough that he often devotes seven spots on the game day roster (not just the 53) for players who play 90%+ of their snaps on STs.

 

[RelocatedPatFan]

Here's a simple way of looking at it: Slater and, for that matter, Ebner are good enough at what they do that BB has had them active for pretty much every game they've been healthy.

And as I've said multiple times in the past, Belichick feels STs are important enough that he often devotes seven spots on the game day roster (not just the 53) for players who play 90%+ of their snaps on STs.

Definitely.

Plus we are talking about replacing the "last" WR spot on the team vs the productivity that Slater brings. We know BB loves ST play and consistency. He gets that from Slater. As someone else pointed out, the cost of having the defense play additional plays may very well be worth the spot and cost

 

[Ian]

How much offensive impact do you expect a #5 or #6 WR to have in a two tight end base offense? The realistic answer is essentially 0, whether that player is Slater or any other real receiver.

I agree with this, but moreover Slater's problem is he gives you nothing in terms of production, period, as a receiver.

I've complained about him in the past and honestly I just don't get the feeling he wants to play offense bad enough to get better and part of me wonders if that's why Belichick tried him instead on defense. Defensively at least he can potentially chase down a receiver or a back and tackle them. Offensively he just can't get open so expecting anything from him there is pointless.

But I love him as a special teams player. I just don't want to see him steal a receiver's roster spot from another guy who can at least give them something greater than "0" if - heaven forbid - they're down two or more players later in the year. We've already seen how that's played out and I'd rather not experience it again.

 

[supafly]

I agree with this, but moreover Slater's problem is he gives you nothing in terms of production, period, as a receiver.

I've complained about him in the past and honestly I just don't get the feeling he wants to play offense bad enough to get better and part of me wonders if that's why Belichick tried him instead on defense. Defensively at least he can potentially chase down a receiver or a back and tackle them. Offensively he just can't get open so expecting anything from him there is pointless.

But I love him as a special teams player. I just don't want to see him steal a receiver's roster spot from another guy who can at least give them something greater than "0" if - heaven forbid - they're down two or more players later in the year. We've already seen how that's played out and I'd rather not experience it again.

Certainly a reasonable and fair point, Ian.

We all know that Slater has a tremendous amount of value as a ST-only player, and that Belichick considers him one of the leaders on the team. He sets the tone both on the field, and in the locker room.

I think that we should just probably consider him a ST-only player like that of a long snapper, kicker, or punter. This way we won't have to worry about him potentially stealing an up and coming WR's spot.

I think that Belichick would be savvy enough to realize that we are in the rebuilding process at that position (WR), so if there is a young up and comer that shows up in training camp, he would likely weigh out the potential benefits to possibly keeping an extra WR on the 53 man roster this year. That could even make one of the 'other' ST-only players expendable, although there would be a large debate as to exactly who that may be.