It's more about Tom Brady than Wes Welker!!!

[Ring 6]

Watch the games. He tries to force it into Welker when there's virtually no chance for a reception more often than he should. The stats don't tell the story of who is open and who isn't. Stats don't always tell the story. Most times they only tell part of it, at best.

We are watching the games, it appears you are not.
He completes 71% of his passes to Welker. It is ludicrous to say that overall decision making is anything but excellent. Welker also produced the 19th highest receiving yardage total of any single season of any WR ever.
Thats was 3 yards less than Jerry Rice's 2nd best ever. Only 2 active receivers Johnson and Johnson have ever exceeded it.
Welker had one of the greatest season any WR of any era has ever had (while also having the TEs set all time records individually and as a group to show it wasn't taking away from anyone else), and your conclusion is that it was a bad idea to throw to him. Worst analysis I've seen on the topic, by far.

I guess you want to see the ball going to 85????????

 

[Deus Irae]

Every Welker thread gets more absurd that the last...

 

[JJDChE]

We are watching the games, it appears you are not.
He completes 71% of his passes to Welker. It is ludicrous to say that overall decision making is anything but excellent. Welker also produced the 19th highest receiving yardage total of any single season of any WR ever.
Thats was 3 yards less than Jerry Rice's 2nd best ever. Only 2 active receivers Johnson and Johnson have ever exceeded it.
Welker had one of the greatest season any WR of any era has ever had (while also having the TEs set all time records individually and as a group to show it wasn't taking away from anyone else), and your conclusion is that it was a bad idea to throw to him. Worst analysis I've seen on the topic, by far.

I guess you want to see the ball going to 85????????

71%? Guess what, that means 29% of the time Brady misses him (or Wes drops it, etc.). It could be higher than 71% if he went past Welker in his progression when Wes has a defender on his back going across the middle. Check down to a RB ferchissakes.

 

[borg]

Welker played 63 snaps. 10 of the 15 that he didn't play were runs. How many more targets would he get it he played every single snap?
BB looking beyond opponents is just as ludicrous as Brady needing to be trained to decide where to throw the ball.
Very poor posting day for you. If the Pats play this Sunday like you posted today, they will lose 50-0

I choose to keep it light on this board....just have some fun...after all, its only entertainment. But every once in a while I'll pass along some nuggets that come from the belly of the beast. Besides the draft postings below, I gave the board the Seymour holdout months in advance plus a few others. I don't go to the well too often and I usually try to tuck the info in, in a low key manner. Guess I should have started this thread in the trash bin so as not to upset the "Brady does no wrong" crowd that always hangs onto to such sentiments as "just as ludicrous as Brady needing to be trained to decide where to throw the ball." Guess the Brady retraining didn't take hold on that two point conversion Sunday

Just prior to 2012 draft
http://www.patsfans.com/new-england...l-draft-rumors-thread-page11.html#post3025497

Just prior to 2011 draft
http://www.patsfans.com/new-england...riots-draft-prediction-page9.html#post2527815

Just prior to 2010 draft
http://www.patsfans.com/new-england...t-him-theyre-not-smart-page5.html#post1789810

 

[nekromantique]

As to the tag, apparently it was insurance. They didn't know for sure they could get Lloyd, apparenty hadn't yet realized Edelman was an emerging #2..., didn't know that Gaffney and Stallworth would be options. I do think they brough them and kicked some others tires in part to create leverage. Only they didn't pan out and it didn't work. Then they were also able to get team friendly early deals done on both TE's.

It's all an evolving connect the dots exercise in hindsight so who knows. But the alternatives make a lot less sense.

it also afforded them time to work on a long term deal while not having to worry about him leaving. if they had gotten a deal done before the deadline, it wouldve taken the place of the tag. (theres a deadline for franchise tag designation, and they didnt have anyone else worth tagging...they just couldnt work out a deal before the contract deadline)

they were going to sign lloyd either way, especially for as cheap as they got him.

 

[JJDChE]

I do, without exception



Stats do remove some silly biases from consideration though.

2011 Patriots Stats

If a person catches 71% of the passes thrown to him, it's hard to argue that throwing to him too often constitutes a major problem. Now I know the last two games have not been pretty, but that is an issue of sample size IMO.

Was Gronk thrown also targeted too much last year (73% success rate) and Aaron too (70% success rate)?

It does seem that TB forced it into Deion a bit much last year (57% success rate)

I didn't say it was a major problem. It's an area that could be addressed for incrementally more success, IMO.

 

[crawhammer]

The Quick hit:

How do you force Brady to implement the new offensive strategy and target Lloyd......keep Welker off the field!!

Long Winded Explanation:

...

I don't need to read your "long winded explanation." You're an idiot. So, the strategy is put an inferior slot receiver (Edelman) in the starting lineup, presuming he won't get open as much as Welker, and therefore Brady will have to force the ball into Lloyd? Ok, you're a moron.

 

[BSR]

I don't need to read your "long winded explanation." You're an idiot. So, the strategy is put an inferior slot receiver (Edelman) in the starting lineup, presuming he won't get open as much as Welker, and therefore Brady will have to force the ball into Lloyd? Ok, you're a moron.

Classy...you should last long here.

 

[MoLewisrocks]

I didn't say it was a major problem. It's an area that could be addressed for incrementally more success, IMO.

Yeah, sure...

FOOTBALL OUTSIDERS: Innovative Statistics, Intelligent Analysis | WIDE RECEIVERS 2011

 

[MoLewisrocks]

I don't need to read your "long winded explanation." You're an idiot. So, the strategy is put an inferior slot receiver (Edelman) in the starting lineup, presuming he won't get open as much as Welker, and therefore Brady will have to force the ball into Lloyd? Ok, you're a moron.

Makes sense even to Bruschi apparently as part of a phase out Welker and see if we have a remotely viable replacement on the roster strategy.

 

[JJDChE]

Yeah, sure...

FOOTBALL OUTSIDERS: Innovative Statistics, Intelligent Analysis | WIDE RECEIVERS 2011

Thanks for posting something irrelevant.

 

[Dutchmaster617]

The Quick hit:

How do you force Brady to implement the new offensive strategy and target Lloyd......keep Welker off the field!!

Long Winded Explanation:

In 2010-11, the few teams that were successful slowing the Pats offensive machine were the teams that successfully flooded the center of the field with extra DBs (yes, push up the middle was an issue also). BB and McDaniels signed Lloyd as the weapon that would open up the field both horizontally (sideline routes, backshoulder throws) and vertically (bombs). Their plan was/is to force Ds to abandon the zone flooding. Great idea in theory but the plan needs the right WR ...and a QB willing to step out from his comfort zone.(I can already see all your eyes rolling in the back of your head).

The term "binky" gets thrown around this site quite often....and rightfully so. The Brady to Welker combo is lethal....and when the ***** hits the fan, Brady finds his guy, to the tune of 120 catches last year with a 16 catch total in one game alone. Add in Gronk's 99 catches and AHern's 69 last year, and it is clear their are plenty of binkies available. The problem is....all 3 patrol the same space...the middle of the field.
Look at the situation from BB's perspective.....He sees how Ds defend his passing game ....and he has also seen his QB go from a guy that spread it around to "who's ever open" to a QB that is locked on 3 excellent players. With several wasted #2 draft picks, a slew of vet WRs that never made the roster, and a $6 mill waste of space all tossed in the garbage pile.....and now a significant long term investment (Lloyd) that management believes will force teams to change up their D plans.....BB needs to make this work.

But how do you prevent Brady from starting the season right where he left off....looking for Wes? Easy......keep Wes off the field. I'm betting BB looked at the schedule and felt comfortable enough limiting Welker's reps in order to get Lloyd involved immediately and develop a comfort level between the WR and QB. Wes' second half success vs Ariz clearly demonstrates that the Brady/Welker combo is money in the bank ( bad pun ) and BB knows this....always has. The Welkerless O is more about retraining Brady to expand the field.

Wow, an essay of complete BS, something way too typical on here.

 

[Ring 6]

71%? Guess what, that means 29% of the time Brady misses him (or Wes drops it, etc.). It could be higher than 71% if he went past Welker in his progression when Wes has a defender on his back going across the middle. Check down to a RB ferchissakes.

So you are complaining about 71% completion and calling it bad decision making.
You should introduce yourself to reality.

 

[Ring 6]

Makes sense even to Bruschi apparently as part of a phase out Welker and see if we have a remotely viable replacement on the roster strategy.

Do you have any examples of BB ever doing such a thing?

 

[Patsrock]

So you are complaining about 71% completion and calling it bad decision making.
You should introduce yourself to reality.

I am not sure why he thinks 71% could be better. Considering 71% is the all time record for completion % in a season.

 

[Ring 6]

Thanks for posting something irrelevant.

So wait. Your argument is that Brady throws to much to Welker making him less successful and the FACT that the % completed to Welker is the highest in the entire league is irrelevant to you? Thats like saying 4 is irrelevant to 2+2

 

[BSR]

I am not sure why he thinks 71% could be better. Considering 71% is the all time record for completion % in a season.

Not that the % isn't great but that wasn't the highest last year. Colston was at 75% and Gronk was up towards 83%.

 

[BSR]

Do you have any examples of BB ever doing such a thing?

When the offense moved away from Moss in 2010?

 

[Ring 6]

Not that the % isn't great but that wasn't the highest last year. Colston was at 75% and Gronk was up towards 83%.

Gronk was 73%.
But you are right it was 2nd i missed one WR

 

[Ring 6]

When the offense moved away from Moss in 2010?

No.
They didn't phase out Moss to see if they had a replacement on the roster.
Moss quit on the team so they traded him.