Tom Brady was among league's worst in 'bad passes' last season

[goheels22002]

Except there was quite a few of those games where we just went about and executed the game plan anyway down the stretch, IE, played our game. How else do you explain the Indy game where their corners were lining up ten yards away from our receivers from the get-go with our offense stalling time and time again at the beginning of the game, only to get into a potent rhythm making the same throws on the same routes to the same targeted receivers later on? In all, everything should be considered when looking at this article. Quality of opponent, it's ability to execute it's gameplan against our offense, lack of deep/intermediate threat, and noted elbow tendonitis which appeared to be effecting Brady early on in games.

Are you saying that somehow it is defensible that Tarvaris Jackson with his 14 passing TDs and 13 INTs is a more accurate passer than Tom Brady (39/12)? Stats, Inc. does.

 

[Kontradiction]

Are you saying that somehow it is defensible that Tarvaris Jackson with his 14 passing TDs and 13 INTs is a more accurate passer than Tom Brady (39/12)? Stats, Inc. does.

Please quote where I made that argument. What I DID say is that there were times in games last season where Brady had some passes sail on him, particularly early on, and that there were a multitude of factors for it.

 

[borg]

He underthrew several deep bombs. A few sailed on him as well. Face it, the guy is not as natural a passer as some. He relies on mechanics and his success is a culmination of many moving parts aligning at once. Take away his stride forward and he is ordinary. Injury, age, a revolving door at center last year....and the guy was still at the top of his game. But lets not forget that he is surrounded by big talent. Tom Brady the "winner" turned into Tom Brady the GOAT as soon as BB upgraded his weapons in 2007. Best slot WR in league, Best traditional TE, top 5 matchup nightmare in Hernandez....And lets not forget the assets being used on the OL in terms of $$$ and draft picks.

 

[randomk1]

Please quote where I made that argument. What I DID say is that there were times in games last season where Brady had some passes sail on him, particularly early on, and that there were a multitude of factors for it.

I definitely recall games where Brady didn't look to be on the mark at times. Yes,even on passes that didn't go in Ocho's direction.

And there were factors for it but by what standards did Brady have a bad season? 2010? 2007? Heh

 

[Deus Irae]

I think people are being a little defensive about this stat. Reading the article, that tries to dig deeper, they guess that the main cause of his high number of bad passes was the inability to connect down field the past couple of years. This isn't some big secret. His completion percentage of passes thrown downfield have been dreadful the past few years. We tend to think its because of the lack of downfield weapons but hopefully that is corrected with the additions of Lloyd, Gaffney and Stallworth.

I think Stats, Inc. is trying to create and validate a stat that can't really be accurately determined without talking to the involved players about every single NFL incompletion during the season. It shouldn't be surprising if people aren't happy with such an attempt.

 

[PatsFanSince74]

No, I think we can dismiss this as bull pretty handily. And if you're talking about the placement of the Welker throw, while ultimately a tough one on the receiver we have not established that the throw in and of itself was bad or misplaced (the closing safety theory). Obviously they weren't quite on the same page which made the catch more difficult (although makable for Welker), but that isn't what constitutes a bad throw or decision.

Mo. There's no point in entering into a discussion with you on Brady since you don't consider any, even remote, criticism of him to be valid.

I acknowledged that, despite these "stats," he was MVP but indeed did have the temerity to suggest that there might be some validity to the data. I'd be very interested in the vertical comparison.

People see the Welker throw in different ways and opinions are hardened to the point of there being no point to discussing it.

 

[Kontradiction]

I definitely recall games where Brady didn't look to be on the mark at times. Yes,even on passes that didn't go in Ocho's direction.

And there were factors for it but by what standards did Brady have a bad season? 2010? 2007? Heh

Brady had a phenomenal season. He played a major part in carrying this team to the postseason as the number one seed in the AFC and played a big part in getting this team to the Super Bowl in spite of the second worst pass defense of all time on the other side of the ball. However, that doesn't change the fact that he and the offense went through quite a few games in which he saw balls sail on him early on which caused the offense to bog itself down in the games mentioned.

 

[Bassman]

Bad passes are just that, whether it is the QB or receivers fault. Since all QB's are based on the same criteria the results are a valid point.

 

[PatsFanSince74]

I think Stats, Inc. is trying to create and validate a stat that can't really be accurately determined without talking to the involved players about every single NFL incompletion during the season. It shouldn't be surprising if people aren't happy with such an attempt.

That, of course, is the problem with any stat. The only way it can have validity is "over time" when the number of observations give it significance.

Stats do, of course, have to go out the window when the game is played and the randomness of individual events plays a role, but the law of big numbers does take over eventually and, ultimately, validates a particular set of statistics or proves it wrong. That's why I'd like to see the vertical, year on year comparisons.

 

[Deus Irae]

That, of course, is the problem with any stat. The only way it can have validity is "over time" when the number of observations give it significance.

Stats do, of course, have to go out the window when the game is played and the randomness of individual events plays a role, but the law of big numbers does take over eventually and, ultimately, validates a particular set of statistics or proves it wrong. That's why I'd like to see the vertical, year on year comparisons.

This has nothing to do with time. They could work this for 100 years. It's never going to be right. The reason is simple:

When a pass is not completed, they don't actually know if it's a bad pass or not.

 

[Nunchucks]

He often threw to a covered Welker or Branch and had passes broken up by defenders. Brady was pretty agressive with his pass choices. I do not think it was a big deal, for every 1 bad pass, he had 4 good passes. Remember he had a few games with terrible interception streaks as well.

You guys are too defensive about it, after all, it is what it is.

 

[goheels22002]

Please quote where I made that argument. What I DID say is that there were times in games last season where Brady had some passes sail on him, particularly early on, and that there were a multitude of factors for it.

No one is disputing that Brady had good and bad days, or even more to the point, on-target and off-target passes, if indeed that is what they were. When a pass "sails" on Brady is that due his delivery or did he throw to a spot that the receiver just didn't get to? Did Welker turn the wrong way or did Brady throw a bad pass here: Wes Welker Missed Catch Super Bowl 46 - YouTube

What about underthrows? Is this an underthrown ball, even though it ends up as a Deion Branch TD? WK 12 Can't-Miss Play: Branch thankful for Brady - YouTube

Stats, Inc. approach to assign numerical values to three un-defined categories (Underthrows, Overthrows and Wide Passes) then rank QBs by % of "bad passes" is bogus.

QB passer rating has the benefit of time and while nearly impossible to decipher, when the ratings come out every week or over a season, it does not stir the ire that the list of % of bad passes did when I saw that.

Your point about good days/bad days applies to every other QB in the league, too. If you think this stat is an accurate portrayal then Tarvaris Jackson had more good days vs bad days than Tom Brady did in 2011 because he's ranked higher. I don't buy it.

 

[PatsBoy12]

As Kontra already said, the man had issues with his throwing elbow. I would imagine that that would cause a QB some issues with his throwing. Oh, and he was still in the discussion at least for league MVP. That's not bad if you ask me.

 

[Buchanty]

This has nothing to do with time. They could work this for 100 years. It's never going to be right. The reason is simple:

When a pass is not completed, they don't actually know if it's a bad pass or not.

Simple rule of analysis - definitions, rules and process all need to be consistently applied on authenticated data. Transparency allows the analysis to be audited or validated.

Deus is right, unless they have data from each team on each and every throw, then they are making a judgment call. Since teams would never release that information and the judgments needed for these stats are prone to levels of inaccuracy, "it's never going to be right".

I still agree with Kontradiction's assessment that tendonitis led to early stiffness and inaccuracy. The stat is only mildly interesting (it must have some interest for me to post twice), but sufficiently flawed not to be used for comparative use (ie versus other QBs).

 

[ThatllMoveTheChains!!!]

As Kontra already said, the man had issues with his throwing elbow. I would imagine that that would cause a QB some issues with his throwing. Oh, and he was still in the discussion at least for league MVP. That's not bad if you ask me.

IIRC he also was having some issues with mechanics that he was trying to work through mid-season. If he was struggling through some injury, mechanical, and personnel problems, which depressed some peripheral statistics, and still produced in the ways that are important that's even more impressive.

 

[patsfaninpittsburgh]

Simple rule of analysis - definitions, rules and process all need to be consistently applied on authenticated data. Transparency allows the analysis to be audited or validated.

Deus is right, unless they have data from each team on each and every throw, then they are making a judgment call. Since teams would never release that information and the judgments needed for these stats are prone to levels of inaccuracy, "it's never going to be right".

I still agree with Kontradiction's assessment that tendonitis led to early stiffness and inaccuracy. The stat is only mildly interesting (it must have some interest for me to post twice), but sufficiently flawed not to be used for comparative use (ie versus other QBs).

Huh?

If the receiver is standing on the 40 yardline and the ball sails over his head.........you can't tell?

The problem is the first and dominant impulse to a rather benign "bad" is that the reader is being told "Brady sucks".

Failure is always a more instructive teacher. What should be gathered here is opportunity for improvement and could be instructive for moves and strategies in the future.

Perhaps the apparent return of the screne game was an outcome of this type of observation?

 

[IllegalContact]

I'm calling BS first... Brady's bread and butter is accuracy and good decision making. Knowing how this offense is predicated on post snap reads and precision route running and timing, 90% of what whomever compiled those stats thinks they saw was on the receiver. Otherwise Bill wouldn't be paying him $18M per - he'd be trading his ass. Brady regularly puts the ball where it has to be and it's on the receiver to be there or close enough to make a play (which when it works may look like a great play on his part when in fact it was one he had to make of necessity - see Brady's critique of one of Lloyd's early diving camp catches where he needed to flatten his route so a circus catch wasn't required...).

Brady throws up prayers with the bet of them....not suprising though......how many of these are the last play before the half? I know I've seen plenty.

All said, this is about as useless as stats come

 

[patsfaninpittsburgh]

Brady throws up prayers with the bet of them....not suprising though......how many of these are the last play before the half? I know I've seen plenty.

All said, this is about as useless as stats come

Looks like this statistic has a natural patron saint at patsfans.com

How much money says someone thinks Brady does this with the "bet" of them at the end of the third half?

 

[PATRIOTSFANINPA]

Did Brady take his team to the Super Bowl?

Did Brady throw for 5,000 yards?

Did Brady help the team win 13 regular season games with his defense literally laughable at times?


The answer to those 3 questions is YES!

So to me.......

 

[Kontradiction]

No one is disputing that Brady had good and bad days, or even more to the point, on-target and off-target passes, if indeed that is what they were. When a pass "sails" on Brady is that due his delivery or did he throw to a spot that the receiver just didn't get to? Did Welker turn the wrong way or did Brady throw a bad pass here: Wes Welker Missed Catch Super Bowl 46 - YouTube

What about underthrows? Is this an underthrown ball, even though it ends up as a Deion Branch TD? WK 12 Can't-Miss Play: Branch thankful for Brady - YouTube

Stats, Inc. approach to assign numerical values to three un-defined categories (Underthrows, Overthrows and Wide Passes) then rank QBs by % of "bad passes" is bogus.

QB passer rating has the benefit of time and while nearly impossible to decipher, when the ratings come out every week or over a season, it does not stir the ire that the list of % of bad passes did when I saw that.

Your point about good days/bad days applies to every other QB in the league, too. If you think this stat is an accurate portrayal then Tarvaris Jackson had more good days vs bad days than Tom Brady did in 2011 because he's ranked higher. I don't buy it.

Except you're trying to represent an argument that I never attempted to make, as was shown by this post...

Eh, this forum tends to get defensive any time something negative is associated with #12 in the media, even though these stats don't have a whole lot of context to them.

So, with that in mind, your insistance that I somehow posted "Tavaris Jackson > Tom Brady" would seem to be out of place, as that's not at all what I posted nor what I said.

There isn't a lot of context to these stats as they leave a lot to be desired. With that said, though, there were a multitude of issues that were bothering Brady last season. Elbow tendonitis, particularly early on in games, would seem to be one of them on top of a flooded field which forced him to have to squeeze balls into some of the tightest windows he's ever had to deal with in his career.

Now, of course, if you want to go ahead and make a case that the offense started out hot in the games mentioned and didn't have to go through some sort of funk before heating up, then you're more than welcome to do so. I'm not sure how big of a case you can build, though, as the sample size is big enough to determine that the factors mentioned did indeed slow the offense in quite a few games thoughout the season.