July 1 salary cap data for all 32 teams

[goheels22002]

Sorry for the naive questions, but...

1) do the 7/1/2012 salary cap numbers reflect tendered contracts and signed contracts, or just signed contracts?

2) what is the penalty for not using 90% of your salary cap?

The New Orleans Saints look like their management of the cap is as bad as their coaching staff - only $2.3 million in cap room with a QB unsigned and not willing to sign his franchise tag tender of $23.6 million for 2012-13.

And what is with Jacksonville being 20% under?

I like the Pats being at $10 million under - not subject to the luxury tax or whatever they call it in the NFL - and well-stocked at every position. They still have some cash to throw at other team's cuts. It also gives them a few samolians to sweeten the Wes Welker signing bonus in addition to a whatever they agree to in terms of length and guarantee.

 

[mayoclinic]

Sorry for the naive questions, but...

1) do the 7/1/2012 salary cap numbers reflect tendered contracts and signed contracts, or just signed contracts?

2) what is the penalty for not using 90% of your salary cap?

The New Orleans Saints look like their management of the cap is as bad as their coaching staff - only $2.3 million in cap room with a QB unsigned and not willing to sign his franchise tag tender of $23.6 million for 2012-13.

And what is with Jacksonville being 20% under?

I like the Pats being at $10 million under - not subject to the luxury tax or whatever they call it in the NFL - and well-stocked at every position. They still have some cash to throw at other team's cuts. It also gives them a few samolians to sweeten the Wes Welker signing bonus in addition to a whatever they agree to in terms of length and guarantee.

I'm pretty sure that the franchise tag cap hit is applied as soon as the tender is offered. So New Orleans' current cap situation includes the $23.6M franchise tender. Any long term deal for Brees would presumably reduce that amount.

 

[MoLewisrocks]

I'm pretty sure that the franchise tag cap hit is applied as soon as the tender is offered. So New Orleans' current cap situation includes the $23.6M franchise tender. Any long term deal for Brees would presumably reduce that amount.

Brees tag this season (2012) is just $16.37M. The $23.6M tag would be what they could hit him with next season (2013) because of the any third time (which is now 144%) ruling.

 

[MoLewisrocks]

Sorry for the naive questions, but...

1) do the 7/1/2012 salary cap numbers reflect tendered contracts and signed contracts, or just signed contracts?

all tendered contracts whether signed or not are reflected in the cap when tendered.

2) what is the penalty for not using 90% of your salary cap?

Individually nothing, as the change doesn't go into effect on a per team basis until 2013 and it's 89%. Right now the entire league has to spend to the minimum in the aggregate, which they generally do in part because for every team that is under there are more that are close to or at the cap.

The New Orleans Saints look like their management of the cap is as bad as their coaching staff - only $2.3 million in cap room with a QB unsigned and not willing to sign his franchise tag tender of $23.6 million for 2012-13.

His tag is $16.4M and it's already counting against their cap. Would be hard to get it any lower given the average he reportedly wants ($20M+) and the projections for a flat cap through 2014. They should have gotten a deal done a year ago. Unfortunately for them his agent is super agent Tom Condon and Tom doesn't do early cap friendly deals for anyone...his thing is resetting the bar.

And what is with Jacksonville being 20% under?

They can roll it over so better to save it than spent it just to spend it. Or use it during the season on some frontloaded extensions. They are rebuilding under new coaches and ownership and have to figure out what they have and where they are going. There is no luxury tax in the NFL. You simply can't exceed the cap, although there are ways around it if you have the cash to persue them (bonus structure).

FWIW some teams may not roll it all over because the 89% spending minimum that kicks in next season will be based on each teams adjusted cap...

I like the Pats being at $10 million under - not subject to the luxury tax or whatever they call it in the NFL - and well-stocked at every position. They still have some cash to throw at other team's cuts. It also gives them a few samolians to sweeten the Wes Welker signing bonus in addition to a whatever they agree to in terms of length and guarantee.

You are confusing cap and cash on Welker. In the NFL they are not one in the same. That said the Patriots have enough of each to do pretty much whatever they want. But they are wary of the flat cap and proceeding accordingly. They also have a QB to deal with whose cap hits in 2013 and 2014 will be $21.8M due to a restructure that saved them several million against this year's cap unless they get an extension restructure done sometime early in 2013. That restructure will cost them a good chunk of cash to gain some flexibility in structuring cap hits over the remainder of Brady's career.

 

[Rob0729]

Only problem is they did it largely by restructuring Brady to the tune of $10.8M in bonus and salary converted to signing bonus thus pushing $3.6M per into 2013 and 2014 resulting in remaining cap hits of $21.8M per... Which makes it impossible to tag him once let alone twice down the home stretch and makes it pretty much imperative they get an extension done next Spring.

I don't think the Pats would ever let Brady play on a franchise tag whether it was affordable or not. Either they are going to feel he has enough left and pay him a reasonable (to him) salary or they are going to move on, IMHO.

I think Brady wanted the respect (money) in this last contract, but will realize that he is reaching the end of the line at age 37 (at the start of the 2015 season) and not want to finish his career like Montana or Favre and being a gun for hire with another team. He will want to end his career as a Patriot unless maybe the 49ers needed a QB.

But looking at the NYJetscap site, the Pats only have $11 millions committed to the cap in 2015. So the Pats could easily fit a franchise tag number for Brady under that.

 

[ctpatsfan77]

2) what is the penalty for not using 90% of your salary cap?

From what I remember reading, you have to pay up the difference to the players already on the roster.

 

[patfanken]

Just thinking about what the Pats might do with a possible Brady extension. Is it against league rules to give Brady something like a 10 year deal that would pay him something like $16MM/yr in real cash during his actual playing time, lets say the next 5 years, and pays him lesser amounts (say $5MM/yr) the last 5 years that he'd never see. That way the Pats can prorate his deal over the course of 10 years instead of 5. The end result would be a deal that would average only $8MM in cap cost during his actual playing time, and have a one year dead money hit at a time when the cap should be starting to rise.

The question is would the league allow this kind of deal which obvious goes beyond Brady's expected playing career?

 

[mayoclinic]

Brees tag this season (2012) is just $16.37M. The $23.6M tag would be what they could hit him with next season (2013) because of the any third time (which is now 144%) ruling.

Thanks for the correction. I didn't bother to check what the current cap hit was.

 

[MoLewisrocks]

Just thinking about what the Pats might do with a possible Brady extension. Is it against league rules to give Brady something like a 10 year deal that would pay him something like $16MM/yr in real cash during his actual playing time, lets say the next 5 years, and pays him lesser amounts (say $5MM/yr) the last 5 years that he'd never see. That way the Pats can prorate his deal over the course of 10 years instead of 5. The end result would be a deal that would average only $8MM in cap cost during his actual playing time, and have a one year dead money hit at a time when the cap should be starting to rise.

The question is would the league allow this kind of deal which obvious goes beyond Brady's expected playing career?

There is no prohibition against ten year deals, but the reality is you can only amortize over 5 years so for it to work you would have to have a series of options or roster bonuses that aren't guaranteed out of the gate. And at the end of the day Tom isn't going to play that game and neither is this team. They just want fair and cost certainty. Can't pay him more once he hangs them up, just ask the Broncos (they were penalized twice for trying that back in the early days of the cap...). And don't want a truly crippling two year dead cap hit in the double digits.

I could see them going with a another 3-4 year extension in order to maximize amortization. It's not the end of the world to take a fairly substantial one year dead cap hit when your HOF QB rides off into the sunset (or lands in Denver). The Colts are taking a one year $10M dead cap hit on Manning this season, but still not paying as much for the position with that and Luck on the cap as they did in Manning's prime.

What you need to wrap your head around though is they don't need Brady at an $8M cap hit. If they can keep him in the $15-18M cap hit range over the next 3-4 years and not top $20M against the cap until maybe 2016-17 or so they'd be fine with that. Having two remaining seasons on his current deal that averages around $15M+ because it too was an incremental early extension with years remaining will allow them to be flexible with amortization. Brees is trying to make that impossible by pushing for more than a $20M AAV and upwards of $65-70M guaranteed. Because he is a Condon client and Condon always strives to reset the bar. Rogers will be up again next (a Dunn client like Welker and Hernandez), followed shortly by Stafford and Eli (both Condon clients) so we shall see.

 

[goheels22002]

You are confusing cap and cash on Welker. In the NFL they are not one in the same. That said the Patriots have enough of each to do pretty much whatever they want. But they are wary of the flat cap and proceeding accordingly. They also have a QB to deal with whose cap hits in 2013 and 2014 will be $21.8M due to a restructure that saved them several million against this year's cap unless they get an extension restructure done sometime early in 2013. That restructure will cost them a good chunk of cash to gain some flexibility in structuring cap hits over the remainder of Brady's career.

First, thanks for answering the questions about the cap.

A couple of reactions - on the Saints's Brees dilemma, they are a mess, and being within 1.5% of their cap for 2012-13 not only limits what they can do this year, it really hamstrings them in doing a deal with Brees that pays him what he is worth no matter how you try to backload the bonus money. It will be very interesting to see if those guys circle the wagons and kick ass this year or completely implode. I understand it is entirely different circumstances, but when the Patriots were punished and humiliated by the league, the players united and kicked serious ass. It will be interesting to see if Brees has the leadership skills to do that or focuses on his contract and takes big money while the team disintegrates.

On Welker, I was not confusing the tag, salary, bonuses and the cap. He counts $9.5 against the cap this year (his tag number), and they have $10 million unaccounted for against the cap.

You take those two numbers and there is lots to work with in 2012-13 in a new deal that either just adds a couple of years to his franchise year with a signing bonus, or restructures a three-year deal. The July 1, 2012 cap for the Patriots gives both sides negotiating room which I think the Patriots needed. It also suggests they'll have a little money around to snag somebody else's waived players once injuries take their toll and guys show up out of shape for camp which is a perennial disappointment.

Once again, the Pats enter camp with talent, depth, experience and some money in the cash drawer. We are so lucky to be closely following this franchise.

 

[MoLewisrocks]

First, thanks for answering the questions about the cap.

A couple of reactions - on the Saints's Brees dilemma, they are a mess, and being within 1.5% of their cap for 2012-13 not only limits what they can do this year, it really hamstrings them in doing a deal with Brees that pays him what he is worth no matter how you try to backload the bonus money. It will be very interesting to see if those guys circle the wagons and kick ass this year or completely implode. I understand it is entirely different circumstances, but when the Patriots were punished and humiliated by the league, the players united and kicked serious ass. It will be interesting to see if Brees has the leadership skills to do that or focuses on his contract and takes big money while the team disintegrates.

On Welker, I was not confusing the tag, salary, bonuses and the cap. He counts $9.5 against the cap this year (his tag number), and they have $10 million unaccounted for against the cap.

You take those two numbers and there is lots to work with in 2012-13 in a new deal that either just adds a couple of years to his franchise year with a signing bonus, or restructures a three-year deal. The July 1, 2012 cap for the Patriots gives both sides negotiating room which I think the Patriots needed. It also suggests they'll have a little money around to snag somebody else's waived players once injuries take their toll and guys show up out of shape for camp which is a perennial disappointment.

Once again, the Pats enter camp with talent, depth, experience and some money in the cash drawer. We are so lucky to be closely following this franchise.

Tagging Welker never made sense to me because it shouldn't have come to that. Given he just turned 31 in May and his track record including coming back from the ACL basically without missing a beat, they should have found a way to get a 4 year extension done last season. Would have made a lot more cap sense. Instead they made that bizarro 2 year $16M guaranteed offer which would have averaged and capped out at just over $6M per from 2011-13 - which is why he wouldn't consider it. Now it's harder to spread out the cap hits, and it's beginning to look as if they've decided not to with just ten days to go until they can't do a deal - July 16th deadline.

They may be thinking of going year to year with him from here on out, and not by tagging him again but by offering him whatever they feel he's worth after this season and letting him test the market - provided he doesn't go and set more records...in which case if he wants top market they will let him walk. Which seems a little foolish strategically given how Brady trusts him and how rare those guys are and since beyond 2013 any guaranteed money would have been accounted for on a long term extension and thereafter in this league you can always force veterans to restructure and take a pay cut or be cut... His dead cap would have been manageable.

 

[goheels22002]

Tagging Welker never made sense to me because it shouldn't have come to that. Given he just turned 31 in May and his track record including coming back from the ACL basically without missing a beat, they should have found a way to get a 4 year extension done last season. Would have made a lot more cap sense. Instead they made that bizarro 2 year $16M guaranteed offer which would have averaged and capped out at just over $6M per from 2011-13 - which is why he wouldn't consider it. Now it's harder to spread out the cap hits, and it's beginning to look as if they've decided not to with just ten days to go until they can't do a deal - July 16th deadline.

They may be thinking of going year to year with him from here on out, and not by tagging him again but by offering him whatever they feel he's worth after this season and letting him test the market - provided he doesn't go and set more records...in which case if he wants top market they will let him walk. Which seems a little foolish strategically given how Brady trusts him and how rare those guys are and since beyond 2013 any guaranteed money would have been accounted for on a long term extension and thereafter in this league you can always force veterans to restructure and take a pay cut or be cut... His dead cap would have been manageable.

When they didn't re-do his deal last year and franchise tagged Welker on early this year, I think they were waiting while the dust settled on the early round draftees, Light's decision, Waters, Gronkowski's extension, and all these veterans on offense. There was a lot of movement.

What's left to do among guys they know they'll keep? Hightower, Waters and Welker. I think.

My guess is that a deal gets done by the 16th. Something in the 3-year, $24 - 27 million range with $12 - 15 million guaranteed with $1.5 million signing bonus. He'll get his $9.5 this year, security, and make up a little for underpaid years. It will still fit cap-wise.

Brady's cap hit looming is a bummer to think about. He's restructured in the past and might do so again. On the other hand, Kraft and Belichick saw what happened in SF with Montana and what just happened in Indianapolis falling apart with Manning injured. The Indy situation will be interesting to watch. If the transition QB is there, the Krafts and Belichick will say a very fond farewell, and move on to keep a deep, competitive team on the field. The brand is bigger than one guy, even Brady.

 

[BlueThunder]

Brady's cap hit looming is a bummer to think about. He's restructured in the past and might do so again. On the other hand, Kraft and Belichick saw what happened in SF with Montana and what just happened in Indianapolis falling apart with Manning injured. The Indy situation will be interesting to watch. If the transition QB is there, the Krafts and Belichick will say a very fond farewell, and move on to keep a deep, competitive team on the field. The brand is bigger than one guy, even Brady.

Do you really think they'd let Brady walk and not retire a Patriot ??????

 

[MoLewisrocks]

When they didn't re-do his deal last year and franchise tagged Welker on early this year, I think they were waiting while the dust settled on the early round draftees, Light's decision, Waters, Gronkowski's extension, and all these veterans on offense. There was a lot of movement.

What's left to do among guys they know they'll keep? Hightower, Waters and Welker. I think.

My guess is that a deal gets done by the 16th. Something in the 3-year, $24 - 27 million range with $12 - 15 million guaranteed with $1.5 million signing bonus. He'll get his $9.5 this year, security, and make up a little for underpaid years. It will still fit cap-wise.

Brady's cap hit looming is a bummer to think about. He's restructured in the past and might do so again. On the other hand, Kraft and Belichick saw what happened in SF with Montana and what just happened in Indianapolis falling apart with Manning injured. The Indy situation will be interesting to watch. If the transition QB is there, the Krafts and Belichick will say a very fond farewell, and move on to keep a deep, competitive team on the field. The brand is bigger than one guy, even Brady.

I think you're wrong on both counts. The first one, unfortunately - not to mention you don't seem to grasp the relevance of deal structure in these decisions let alone in relation to what he already declined.

The second one...you've apparently lost sight of how Indy even came to be in posession of a potential transitional player at the position. I guarantee you Bill and Bob ain't looking to go that route even if Luck turns out to be the second coming of Peyton Manning. It took the first coming several seasons to be a genuine contender and 9 to win a championship. And in the process he drained their resources to remain competitive much beyond one and done. They were left no choice but to do a full blown rebuild from the top down around Luck after gutting what little talent they had managed to retain or make do with during Manning's prime. Even within a weak division they are looking at a 2-3 year uphill climb to be even competitive let alone in contention going forward because absent Manning they literally fell off a cliff and into the kind of deep void that results in total overhauls.

Brady restructured this season, that's why the remaining cap hits are what they are. The only way around them is via extension. His dead cap is greater than his salary savings, and would remain so in 2014 if they restructured once more to alleviate cap pressure in 2013. Even if they already had a successor in the pipeline, or a clear shot at drafting one, and there is zero indication that they have or will have either - and that is absolutely what it would take. The brand is bigger than one guy unless he's the one guy who allowed them to build and sustain it. Absent him it's debatable that Belichick even has the opportunity to build it early in the last decade or that Kraft thereafter absent Belichick has the opportunity to sustain it into the next decade.

And before you or anyone goes there, I know, once upon a time Cassel was able to plug the gap to the tune of 11 wins. And that typically changed the thinking of those who previously swore he was a waste of roster space. However those who already thought he had at least that in him also realized had he remained here for the defensive transition that has been unfolding since, he and this offense would have probably had about as much success as they have had in KC. Brady is special, and you don't walk away from that level of special unless you're forced to as Indy was or unless as in SF's case you believe you have something younger (no pun intended) and just as special waiting in the wings.

 

[MoLewisrocks]

Do you really think they'd let Brady walk and not retire a Patriot ??????

A lot of people think that way because they believe that is what the system dictates. Only it isn't. Bill has never walked away from talent that delivered. They will point to players like Milloy, Law, McGinest, Seymour, Moss...without grasping that in each case there was an underlying issue that led to their departure. Milloy wasn't playing up to his salary let alone his cap hit - and he was becoming a negative force in the locker room to boot. Law had an ego that trumped reason, they offered him as much money as he ended up earning the rest of his career but in a restructure that hurt his ego. They had little choice at the time due to cap constraints simply playing out his deal exacerbated. And then he got hurt so there was little reason for Bill to second guess. Did try to get him back for a coupe of years, though. Willie was about done and again ego wouldn't allow him to face that here. Seymour had disappointed Bill post 2004, and though they tried to salvage the relationship he became increasingly entrenched in the mentality Lawyer ingrained into him as a youngster, get yours, even as his prodution ebbed and waned. Moss just spit on the career saving lifeline Belichick and Kraft extended to him.

Brady doesn't fall into any of those categories. And if he never has he likely never will. He's been all in since day 1 here and cooperated with them financially at every turn and he has been an extension of the HC on and off the field consistently, even when you know he had to be personally disappointed in some of the moves made around him. You almost can't ever overpay THAT guy. Or replace him easily, if ever. Everything else you can work around - to a large extent because he exists here.

 

[PATSYLICIOUS]

Just enough room to sign Julius Peppers

 

[goheels22002]

I think you're wrong on both counts. The first one, unfortunately - not to mention you don't seem to grasp the relevance of deal structure in these decisions let alone in relation to what he already declined.

The second one...you've apparently lost sight of how Indy even came to be in posession of a potential transitional player at the position. I guarantee you Bill and Bob ain't looking to go that route even if Luck turns out to be the second coming of Peyton Manning. It took the first coming several seasons to be a genuine contender and 9 to win a championship. And in the process he drained their resources to remain competitive much beyond one and done. They were left no choice but to do a full blown rebuild from the top down around Luck after gutting what little talent they had managed to retain or make do with during Manning's prime. Even within a weak division they are looking at a 2-3 year uphill climb to be even competitive let alone in contention going forward because absent Manning they literally fell off a cliff and into the kind of deep void that results in total overhauls.

Brady restructured this season, that's why the remaining cap hits are what they are. The only way around them is via extension. His dead cap is greater than his salary savings, and would remain so in 2014 if they restructured once more to alleviate cap pressure in 2013. Even if they already had a successor in the pipeline, or a clear shot at drafting one, and there is zero indication that they have or will have either - and that is absolutely what it would take. The brand is bigger than one guy unless he's the one guy who allowed them to build and sustain it. Absent him it's debatable that Belichick even has the opportunity to build it early in the last decade or that Kraft thereafter absent Belichick has the opportunity to sustain it into the next decade.

And before you or anyone goes there, I know, once upon a time Cassel was able to plug the gap to the tune of 11 wins. And that typically changed the thinking of those who previously swore he was a waste of roster space. However those who already thought he had at least that in him also realized had he remained here for the defensive transition that has been unfolding since, he and this offense would have probably had about as much success as they have had in KC. Brady is special, and you don't walk away from that level of special unless you're forced to as Indy was or unless as in SF's case you believe you have something younger (no pun intended) and just as special waiting in the wings.

We're in agreement on the Brady situation - I didn't elaborate the difference between the Montana and the Manning situations, which you did. The beauty of the cap is that it forces teams like the Patriots to over-invest in one or a few guys. See: Colts c. 2011 and Saints c. 2012.

The Pats won't do that. They are built for sustained excellence in 2013 -2014 right now. Brady can choose to be part of that or not. An extension with declining guaranteed money is the only way that works barring a sizable jump in the cap to soften the landing, which could be the case. Otherwise this year may be it.

A cap number like Brady's ($8.2M in '12 escalating to $21.8M in '13 and '14) squeezes the payroll in the last two years. Unless the cap jumps significantly, something will have to give. 2013 looks like a major problem - 2014 may not.

Revenue from TV goes up dramatically in 2014, according to the projections used in the CBA negotiations, but the owners said the cap will not. Go figure. Expect the NFLPA to file a grievance with NLRB and seek mediation on revenue sharing or threaten a strike to re-open the books.

My guess is that the NFL is up for a salary cap fight with the NFLPA. When they won the arbitration to keep the Cowboys and Redskins in line, the NFL was awarded the security of knowing they could set the cap wherever they wanted. Prying more out of the owners will require a union that can demand and win transparency.

On Welker, I hope you are wrong. Prior to the 2011 season, lots of us felt they should have re-worked his deal for four years in the the $7-8M average range. This year, three years at an average $8M made sense, the Pats offered two years at an average of $8M - he rejected that and ended up signing the franchise tag at $9.5.

The Pats pretty much have to offer 3 years (2012 plus a two year extension) - I don't see them going more than that - or live with the year-to-year issue which usually is too expensive and causes rancor. Eight days to go - we'll see.

 

[borg]

I would love to be a fly on the wall when a new Brady contract gets discussed in a few years.
Now lets try to figure how that conversation starts. Will it be an assembly of agents and Patriots management like most negotiations? Or will it begin with an intimate discussion between Bill and Tom...with Bill laying out his plan for the future...and how he sees Tom in that future. These two have been intertwined for a decade plus and I still get the sense that Brady deflects to Bill because of the complete respect his has for his coach.
So this is how I see it going down: Bill explains to Tom that he wants to continue the run their team has been on for the past 14 years and wants Tom to be the teams QB and leader. He reminds Tom that the Patriots have shown Brady contract respect in the past by making Brady the highest paid player in the NFL (for a time). They talk about their legacy as individuals and together as the greatest QB/Coach tandem in NFL history. Then Bill gets to the heart of the discussion. "Skills erode with time....its a fact of life. As we move forward, we will need to surround you with better talent....higher priced talent. Better protection from the line and playmakers with the ball. And to achieve this goal, the team will need you to sacrifice salary. I'm not here to roll out a Joe Namath swan song tour with fans eager to shell out coin to catch a final glimpse of Tom Brady before his time finally comes to an end. This is about winning football games, cementing your legacy as the greatest winner in NFL history......and with a team friendly extension...the greatest team player as well. Our ultimate goal remains the same, win every game...but you will need more help."

Could it play out this way? It sure helps that he is the low wage earner in his household? And I imagine the Joe Montana exodus from San Fran is still vivid in his mind as a painful memory. And the current NFL landscape is eye opening... Manning starting over in Denver. Brees holding the Saints hostage.
Here's an interesting thread idea:
What NFL franchise would Brady respect enough to play for? And which coaches would Brady have enough confidence in to lead him forward on a new team?

 

[mayoclinic]

I would love to be a fly on the wall when a new Brady contract gets discussed in a few years.
Now lets try to figure how that conversation starts. Will it be an assembly of agents and Patriots management like most negotiations? Or will it begin with an intimate discussion between Bill and Tom...with Bill laying out his plan for the future...and how he sees Tom in that future. These two have been intertwined for a decade plus and I still get the sense that Brady deflects to Bill because of the complete respect his has for his coach.
So this is how I see it going down: Bill explains to Tom that he wants to continue the run their team has been on for the past 14 years and wants Tom to be the teams QB and leader. He reminds Tom that the Patriots have shown Brady contract respect in the past by making Brady the highest paid player in the NFL (for a time). They talk about their legacy as individuals and together as the greatest QB/Coach tandem in NFL history. Then Bill gets to the heart of the discussion. "Skills erode with time....its a fact of life. As we move forward, we will need to surround you with better talent....higher priced talent. Better protection from the line and playmakers with the ball. And to achieve this goal, the team will need you to sacrifice salary. I'm not here to roll out a Joe Namath swan song tour with fans eager to shell out coin to catch a final glimpse of Tom Brady before his time finally comes to an end. This is about winning football games, cementing your legacy as the greatest winner in NFL history......and with a team friendly extension...the greatest team player as well. Our ultimate goal remains the same, win every game...but you will need more help."

Could it play out this way? It sure helps that he is the low wage earner in his household?

The Brady/Belichick relationship is fairly unique, and I'm sure that there will be some private conversations. Both guys are well aware of the uniqueness of what they have done and are building, and that neither will likely accomplish as much without the other. Remember that John Elway won his 2 SBs at the end of his career when he didn't have to carry the team. I suspect Brady would rather walk away like Elway than like Montana.

And I imagine the Joe Montana exodus from San Fran is still vivid in his mind as a painful memory. And the current NFL landscape is eye opening... Manning starting over in Denver. Brees holding the Saints hostage.

I think a lot has to do with what options the team has. I doubt the Joe Montana exodus would have played out the way it did had the 49ers not had Steve Young ready. And if the Colts had won 2 more games then I suspect Peyton Manning would still be in Indy - having the 1st pick in the draft with the best QB prospect in a decade does wonders for a team's willingness to part ways with the past of the franchise. The Saints don't have any good alternatives to Drew Brees. How the Pats approach the end of Brady's career will depend to some extent on how they view the other options.

 

[MoLewisrocks]

We're in agreement on the Brady situation - I didn't elaborate the difference between the Montana and the Manning situations, which you did. The beauty of the cap is that it forces teams like the Patriots to over-invest in one or a few guys. See: Colts c. 2011 and Saints c. 2012.

Not even sure what you're talking about here. The cap has little to do with over investment except in cases like the JETS where desperate teams create and then feel pressured to diffuse cap constrictions. And the driving force behind QB negotiations for top tier teams remains if you have an elite one you are loathe to part with him because they remain few and far between and teams absent them have little more than a punchers chance in hell of achieving the ultimate goal nowadays.

The Pats won't do that. They are built for sustained excellence in 2013 -2014 right now. Brady can choose to be part of that or not. An extension with declining guaranteed money is the only way that works barring a sizable jump in the cap to soften the landing, which could be the case. Otherwise this year may be it.

The Patriots already did that. Brady's 4 year extension in 2010 reset the bar on new money AAV ($18M) and guarantees. The fact that it was done with a year remaining allowed it to merely equal ($15.6M the prior bar in total contract AAV. You have to be kidding about the implied threat...

A cap number like Brady's ($8.2M in '12 escalating to $21.8M in '13 and '14) squeezes the payroll in the last two years. Unless the cap jumps significantly, something will have to give. 2013 looks like a major problem - 2014 may not.

Those cap numbers were just re-engineered by the team via restructure.

Revenue from TV goes up dramatically in 2014, according to the projections used in the CBA negotiations, but the owners said the cap will not. Go figure. Expect the NFLPA to file a grievance with NLRB and seek mediation on revenue sharing or threaten a strike to re-open the books.

Revenue isn't going up dramatically any time soon. That was the reality of the deal the NFLPA signed off on. TV deals are always phased in, despite insane projections that mediots spout in the excitement of the moment. That's why the owners had to have a reset - the cap was outstripping revenue growth under the old deal's formula. There is nothing the NFLPA can do about it. The cap is actually set via calculation they agreed upon in the new CBA and the numbers are crunched by an independent auditing firm -not arbitrarily set by the league. They can't threaten to strike, it's prohibited under the CBA. Money was advanced to support the cap in the first couple of calculations (in a tradeoff of sorts where the union agreed to sign off on the cap penalties to Dallas and Washington) because otherwise the cap would have decreased and the NFLPA leadership would have likely been out of jobs. That money will be gradually recouped before the cap increases substantially. That is why Kraft is predicting fairly flat caps through 2014 and only steady but not exponential increases thereafter. But he knew that before he extended Brady this last time because he is one of the members of the executive and compensation committees and that was their goal in achieving a new CBA that worked for the league long term.

My guess is that the NFL is up for a salary cap fight with the NFLPA. When they won the arbitration to keep the Cowboys and Redskins in line, the NFL was awarded the security of knowing they could set the cap wherever they wanted. Prying more out of the owners will require a union that can demand and win transparency.

If they couldn't do that in a lockout they engineered by decertifying so they could get into court, they aren't going to pry anything more out of the league until 2021...they actually traded away something (lots of cap space on two teams who spend like drunkin sailors in FA) to secure just a minimal face saving cap increase in 2012.

On Welker, I hope you are wrong. Prior to the 2011 season, lots of us felt they should have re-worked his deal for four years in the the $7-8M average range. This year, three years at an average $8M made sense, the Pats offered two years at an average of $8M - he rejected that and ended up signing the franchise tag at $9.5.

I hope I'm wrong about Welker, too. Actually I hope I'm wrong about what the FO is thinking.

The Pats pretty much have to offer 3 years (2012 plus a two year extension) - I don't see them going more than that - or live with the year-to-year issue which usually is too expensive and causes rancor. Eight days to go - we'll see.

You would think... But they haven't shown any inclination to. The fact that what they offered him last fall amounted to a three year <$20M deal (albeit largely guaranteed) means their number on him at that time was less than $7M per AAV. They have offered him less guaranteed money since. And that is absent the existing year to backload amortization into. A $4-7M differential (to $24-27M total or $8-9M AAV) is a pretty large gap to close on an incremental (3 year) term, let alone when the guaranteed $$ offer has decreased. Especially for a guy wired like Welker to both believe in himself and be relatively comfortable/secure with rolling the dice given what he has earned to date when the tag is included. He's no longer even the guy who has only made $18M for all his efforts to date. He's now a guy who has made $27.5M... I think we all agree that Wes really, really is a guy aho genuinely wants to win here and finish his career here with Brady. But the team may be overplaying what they perceive as that leverage, and that's how you end up alienating and eventually losing a guy who really fit. It's not so much that guy opts to chase the $$$ so much as that guy begins to feel so underappreciated and taken advantage of that his disenchantment with the FO sours his perspective and trumps comfort level with the scheme and love for playing with his existing teamates.

All it would take next offseason is a 3 year $21M deal with $11 guaranteed for some team to match what he'd have gotten here on two tags. Even if that team is done with him after two seasons...at a dead cap cost of $3M. This team could offer him that on top of his tag on a 4 year deal that guaranteed him $20.5M and hit their cap at $9.5M this year and $6.5M in 2013 and 2014 with an $8M cap hit in 2015 that would anticipate a pay cut to cut that in half or more to remain at 34 or a dead cap hit of $2.25M if cut.

That is why I just don't get the approach they have chosen with Welker. Penny wise and pound foolish unless he literally falls off a cliff after this season, and he obviously neither anticipates that nor has he given them any reason to.