Curious to hear everyone's thoughts on Welker

[DaBruinz]

I hear you, but the problem is, as someone else pointed out, the new kickoff rules kind of change that. Unfortunately for Slater while he's a "WR" on the roster, they're too thin depth and talent wise to warrant a roster spot on a guy who can't do more than one thing. Again, I don't want to take away from what he's done, but they need another guy (or potentially two) and it's a numbers game. If they bring in two-mid tier guys behind Welker and ahead of Branch, from there you have Edelman on the depth chart at 5. Something would have to give. If someone gets hurt, Slater can't give them anything. Again, I'd love to be wrong, but so far it hasn't worked out that way for him. You can't even make the argument about calling Edelman a DB because in all likelihood they're going to bring in more depth there as well. He was a stopgap fix, I don't think BB wants to start him there again next season.

I think part of the hang up you are having, Ian, is that you are assuming the Pats bring back Branch. I don't see that happening. I think they pick up 1 veteran type and add 1-2 more via the draft. Then you'd have Welker, Vet, Edelman, Draft pick, Draftpick. Slater would be a STer. Which is what they started with this year.

I think that people are really ignoring how good Slater was on Kick coverages. In fact, Slater and White were two of the reasons the Pats kick coverage unit was so good this year. The Pats were 6th in kick return average allowed at 21.6 YPR. I can't remember the last time they ranked so well in the kick coverage. I know people will complain about Gostkowski and such, but it turns out that BB didn't want him kicking TBs all the time. The reason being that the coverage was so good.

Slater is still a guy who lines up on all 6 special teams units. He's among the best in the league at it. Those guys don't come along often. You need to keep them while you can..

 

[Boomer B]

Not sure if this has been posted yet, but the Boston Globe online today says it is believed that the Pats offered Welker 2 yr $16 mil fully guaranteed during last season. Obviously he declined it as he would make more during those 2 years if he was tagged.

My feelings are that for Welker to get more years he will have to take less then the $8 mil per year the team was offering. If I were the Pats I'd offer:

4 yrs, $27 million. Fully guaranteed.

This should work for Wes as he would be WR in his 30's with a guaranteed contract and it should work for the Pats as they get the best slot receiver in the game for a manageable deal.

 

[BPF]

I think for locker room purposes Welker has to be brought back. There is no doubt in my mind though that if the Pats get an outside threat, which we all believe they need for this offense to have success vs good defenses, and with Gronk and Hernandez continued development his numbers will go down. With Welker you're not necessarily paying for the numbers from a Patriots perspective, you're paying for the threat he is and the dilemma he will create for the defense if the Pats can get an outside threat especially if they can play him on Welker's side.

 

[jmt57]

I don't recall -- did Edelman see the field at DB in the Super Bowl?

No; after all the time spent by the mediots talking about that for two weeks, Edelman did not play a single snap on defense in that game.

 

[Deus Irae]

Not sure if this has been posted yet, but the Boston Globe online today says it is believed that the Pats offered Welker 2 yr $16 mil fully guaranteed during last season. Obviously he declined it as he would make more during those 2 years if he was tagged.

My feelings are that for Welker to get more years he will have to take less then the $8 mil per year the team was offering. If I were the Pats I'd offer:

4 yrs, $27 million. Fully guaranteed.

This should work for Wes as he would be WR in his 30's with a guaranteed contract and it should work for the Pats as they get the best slot receiver in the game for a manageable deal.

Why would Welker, a top level WR (albeit slot), take more than $2.5 million less per year than the current franchise tag value?

 

[RelocatedPatFan]

I wn'toffer opinions on the amounts, but it seems to me that Welker is i na slightly unique position.

I believe Welker would be a productive receiver in any offense, though probably not as porductive as he is with the Patriots. Add to that, I doubt you could replace Welker in this system with a player and expect to get anywhere near his productivity. It would have to be a vet and other than Lloyd, we'vve had some real trouble picking up WRs who can adapt to the Patriots offense/routing-running.

now, that doesn't mean that BB is breaking the bank or going to pay extra for that, but I think it gives Welker a certain amount of leverage in this case. When I sit down and think about the "what ifs". What if we had Welker, Gronk, Hernandez and a legitimate outside WR (doesn't have to be top tier but very capable nd for the next 2+ years. What do you think our offense would be like, even if we continue to have the RBBC that we seem to run?

 

[PittPatriot]

Welker is a franchise level WR in the Patriots system. He's the best slot WR in the game, the best small space receiver in the game, and probably the best 'underneath' receiver in the game (Not including possible RB competitors in this area). He deserves to be paid accordingly. However, since he's not a 'true' WR, it's difficult to define 'accordingly' in context.

He should probably bank something in the area of Fitzgerald money (minus any age penalty), if you're basing everything on production numbers, but his uniqueness will probably end up hurting him in that department. He'll probably settle for something between $8-9 million, and he'll be a bargain at that price if the Patriots can keep it to a 3 year deal.


Just my $.02

If sign Wes to that kind of money, how do we pay him along with new deals for Gronk and Hernandez when Wes enters his 3rd year? Gronk will warrant the highest salary in the NFL for a TE…Hernandez would want to be paid as a #1, also. If you have that plus WWW…that doesn't leave much to continue to pay our "deep threat," right?

 

[PittPatriot]

Not sure if this has been posted yet, but the Boston Globe online today says it is believed that the Pats offered Welker 2 yr $16 mil fully guaranteed during last season. Obviously he declined it as he would make more during those 2 years if he was tagged.

My feelings are that for Welker to get more years he will have to take less then the $8 mil per year the team was offering. If I were the Pats I'd offer:

4 yrs, $27 million. Fully guaranteed.

This should work for Wes as he would be WR in his 30's with a guaranteed contract and it should work for the Pats as they get the best slot receiver in the game for a manageable deal.

Wow. You'd fully guarantee a FOUR YEAR contract for a guy who probably wears a 40R jacket and will be pounded by front 7 guys until age 36 (which is how long you want to pay him). I am not sure he remain durable for that length of time…I'd love it if it happened though!

 

[ctpatsfan77]

Wow. You'd fully guarantee a FOUR YEAR contract for a guy who probably wears a 40R jacket and will be pounded by front 7 guys until age 36 (which is how long you want to pay him). I am not sure he remain durable for that length of time…I'd love it if it happened though!

Welker's actually pretty jacked.

 

[Deus Irae]

If sign Wes to that kind of money, how do we pay him along with new deals for Gronk and Hernandez when Wes enters his 3rd year? Gronk will warrant the highest salary in the NFL for a TE…Hernandez would want to be paid as a #1, also. If you have that plus WWW…that doesn't leave much to continue to pay our "deep threat," right?

The cap is supposed to make a pretty big jump in 2014, when the new TV money kicks in. Finley's two year deal will help both with setting numbers for Gronk and Hernandez, and with putting another TE on the market that season to keep the market a bit open.

 

[PittPatriot]

Wow. You'd fully guarantee a FOUR YEAR contract for a guy who probably wears a 40R jacket and will be pounded by front 7 guys until age 36...

Welker's actually pretty jacked.

I was just trying to make a point that Wes gets slammed to the ground by men far larger than he is…if he were not jacked, he'd be dead by now.
His durability is awe inspiring - but he is one hit away from missing more than a few games. If there is any Patriot I fear getting concussed, it's he.

 

[PittPatriot]

The cap is supposed to make a pretty big jump in 2014, when the new TV money kicks in. Finley's two year deal will help both with setting numbers for Gronk and Hernandez, and with putting another TE on the market that season to keep the market a bit open.

Thanks for the foresight…as always, you're a few steps ahead.

 

[Boomer B]

Why would Welker, a top level WR (albeit slot), take more than $2.5 million less per year than the current franchise tag value?

The reason is the length of the contract. He would most likely be tagged this year and receive $9.5 mil. Next year at 32, I would guess it would be 50/50 chance that he gets tagged. At age 33 and 34 when his skills may be in decline he probably wouldn't be tagged. Also the injury factor, if he gets tagged this year and gets a career ending injury he would be kissing away millions by not taking the multi-year deal.

If he wants the security of a multi-year deal I think he'll have to sign for less then he wants.

 

[Boomer B]

Wow. You'd fully guarantee a FOUR YEAR contract for a guy who probably wears a 40R jacket and will be pounded by front 7 guys until age 36 (which is how long you want to pay him). I am not sure he remain durable for that length of time…I'd love it if it happened though!

Normally I wouldn't suggest guaranteeing the full deal but if Welker would take a deal that averaged $6.75 mil for 4 years i'd make the exception for a couple of reasons.

One is that he'd be taking under market value and by doing so gets rewarded with the guarantee. Two is that Wes is a guy who has given a lot for the team and has really been underpaid for the amount he produces and he hasn't complained about it or held out. He's a team guy all the way and has a great relationship with Brady. Keeping Tom happy is always a good thing.

 

[Deus Irae]

The reason is the length of the contract. He would most likely be tagged this year and receive $9.5 mil. Next year at 32, I would guess it would be 50/50 chance that he gets tagged. At age 33 and 34 when his skills may be in decline he probably wouldn't be tagged. Also the injury factor, if he gets tagged this year and gets a career ending injury he would be kissing away millions by not taking the multi-year deal.

If he wants the security of a multi-year deal I think he'll have to sign for less then he wants.

He'll make $20 million if he's tagged back-to-back. He has no reason to settle for the amount you mentioned.

 

[Boomer B]

He'll make $20 million if he's tagged back-to-back. He has no reason to settle for the amount you mentioned.

There's no guarantee he gets tagged back to back. Likely he gets tagged this year, but what happens if his production this upcoming season is not as good as last year? Would they still tag him at 32 with declining skills? Also, what happens if he gets injured this year? If it's career ending he just kissed away the millions a multi year deal brings. If it's season ending he likely wouldn't be tagged again next year.

The reason to settle for the amount I mentioned is security.

 

[Deus Irae]

There's no guarantee he gets tagged back to back. Likely he gets tagged this year, but what happens if his production this upcoming season is not as good as last year? Would they still tag him at 32 with declining skills? Also, what happens if he gets injured this year? If it's career ending he just kissed away the millions a multi year deal brings. If it's season ending he likely wouldn't be tagged again next year.

The reason to settle for the amount I mentioned is security.

He's not really getting any with the numbers you're mentioning, which is my point. Your numbers say "We're going to screw you over, but we'll be gentle about it."

 

[MoLewisrocks]

I think part of the hang up you are having, Ian, is that you are assuming the Pats bring back Branch. I don't see that happening. I think they pick up 1 veteran type and add 1-2 more via the draft. Then you'd have Welker, Vet, Edelman, Draft pick, Draftpick. Slater would be a STer. Which is what they started with this year.

I think that people are really ignoring how good Slater was on Kick coverages. In fact, Slater and White were two of the reasons the Pats kick coverage unit was so good this year. The Pats were 6th in kick return average allowed at 21.6 YPR. I can't remember the last time they ranked so well in the kick coverage. I know people will complain about Gostkowski and such, but it turns out that BB didn't want him kicking TBs all the time. The reason being that the coverage was so good.

Slater is still a guy who lines up on all 6 special teams units. He's among the best in the league at it. Those guys don't come along often. You need to keep them while you can..

I think the problem you are having is everyone but you sees them bringing back Branch...just in case vet...draft pick...draft pick don't work out once again. At the combine today Pioli addressed the difficulty in identifying WR's who can play in this system before you actually get to, you know, see them play in this system.

BostonHerald.com - Blogs: Rap Sheet» Blog Archive » Scott Pioli discusses the challenges in picking wide receivers - including his misses in New England

 

[MoLewisrocks]

There's no guarantee he gets tagged back to back. Likely he gets tagged this year, but what happens if his production this upcoming season is not as good as last year? Would they still tag him at 32 with declining skills? Also, what happens if he gets injured this year? If it's career ending he just kissed away the millions a multi year deal brings. If it's season ending he likely wouldn't be tagged again next year.

The reason to settle for the amount I mentioned is security.

Funny we don't take that approach with all of them...although it's rumored we try to. And FWIW he already had his season ending injury, and fortunately it only cost him a game. Wes already has security. He's made $18M already, he's not some kid off the turnip truck who has yet to make a million clear and still drives a pickup truck. He can afford as a result to roll the dice. Another $9.4M has him up to $28M in career earnings. He might as well shoot for the brass ring at this point.

They are paying Mayo $8M, Wilfork $8M, Mankins $8M+ - top 3 money at their positions, none of whom have played as consistently as Welker. You expect Welker to settle for top 20 money if that on a deal half as long...LOL

 

[Boomer B]

Funny we don't take that approach with all of them...although it's rumored we try to. And FWIW he already had his season ending injury, and fortunately it only cost him a game. Wes already has security. He's made $18M already, he's not some kid off the turnip truck who has yet to make a million clear and still drives a pickup truck. He can afford as a result to roll the dice. Another $9.4M has him up to $28M in career earnings. He might as well shoot for the brass ring at this point.

They are paying Mayo $8M, Wilfork $8M, Mankins $8M+ - top 3 money at their positions, none of whom have played as consistently as Welker. You expect Welker to settle for top 20 money if that on a deal half as long...LOL

You are right that none of the above mentioned have played as consistently as Welker. The main difference is that all the above mentioned players signed those deals in their 20's when they were hitting their prime. Welker is 31, and there is chance that his prime years are either done or close to being done. If he was 27 i'd say that $8 -$9 mil per year would be a fair deal as he still had his prime years ahead of him.

I disagree with your point though that Wes can or should roll the dice. He may have been paid $18 mil so far in his career but after taxes and paying his agent he's probably only seen half of it. The difference between $9.5 mil and rolling the dice with injury and $27 mil guaranteed is big.

Anyways, the one thing I think we can all agree on is that hopefully Welker is catching balls from Brady for the forseeable future.