Are the Pats better off being the 2 seed?

[Rob0729]

You are a brave man to say this in public, my friend. I had one of these "bring on the Jets" posts all cranked up and then cheesed out when it came time to hit the "Submit Reply" button. It gives me the creeps to think about a re-match in the playoffs with Rex and those guys. I'm rooting for the Cincinnati Bengals.

Eric Smith vs. Rob Gronkowski is Brady's biggest wet dream. Without Jim Leonhard there, Gronk might set the single game playoff record for yards by a TE. Once you get past the reputation of the Jets, you will see that they are not very good and that they cannot beat good teams this year.

I'm not being brave. I am being informed. I am not afraid of the reputation of the Jets. I have watched most of their games and they are good enough to squeak by bad teams and occassionally crush them, but not good enough to beat the good teams which they haven't since September.

 

[Patriot Missile]

After messing with the playoff machine, if the Jets lose out to the Gmen and Fins, and Cinci loses to Baltimore, Sandiego gets in as the #6 (almost impossible for them to win the division)

Now, I wouldn't want that happening, so do we root for the Jets last week of the season to back in. (barf)

I think this is where some of the fans are just going to have to take the one game at a time approach before they give themselves ulcers over thinking the scenario's.

If they can't beat Cinci ,Denver, Jets or San Diego in the first round then they don't deserve to advance. It's pretty simple.

 

[PATRIOTSFANINPA]

As was mentioned in an earlier thread....its been 20 years since a AFC team was the #1 seed 2 consecutive years and that is exactly what the Pats will do if SF wins tonight and the Pats win the next 2 games at home...and they should.

I do know one thing that is a near certainty...... T.J. Yates will NOT be the starting QB in the Super Bowl....which means Houston WILL lose sometime in the playoffs

 

[mvrabel50]

After messing with the playoff machine, if the Jets lose out to the Gmen and Fins, and Cinci loses to Baltimore, Sandiego gets in as the #6 (almost impossible for them to win the division)

Now, I wouldn't want that happening, so do we root for the Jets last week of the season to back in. (barf)

Cincy plays Baltimore wk 17 and the game will most likely be meaningless for Baltimore so they'll probably be resting most of their starters.

 

[Dutchmaster617]

Assuming the Pats get a 1st round bye, are they better off going in as the 2 seed? I know they won't be playing at Gillette if they face the Steelers in the AFC Championship game but I think they'll have an easier matchup in their first playoff game. They'll probably end up playing Houston instead of Baltimore. Then we just hope that Baltimore beats the Steelers and the AFC Championship goes through Gillette.

I can't deal with another one and done in the playoffs.

What makes people think Houston is such a lock vs NYJ, CIN, OAK, SD, TEN? If they are then they are as tough as any, either way its not about avoiding teams its about playing well, rushing the passer, hitting the open man etc. We haven't played a solid playoff game since vs Jacksonville in 07.

 

[MP-Logick]

What makes people think Houston is such a lock vs NYJ, CIN, OAK, SD, TEN? If they are then they are as tough as any, either way its not about avoiding teams its about playing well, rushing the passer, hitting the open man etc. We haven't played a solid playoff game since vs Jacksonville in 07.

My question exactly. They just got beaten soundly at home by Carolina.

 

[patsinthesnow]

If they can't beat Cinci ,Denver, Jets or San Diego in the first round then they don't deserve to advance. It's pretty simple.

This is true, but always interesting to speculate on seedings,etc.

It's moot until 11pm tonight to know if the Pats will most likely be the #2 or the #1 though.

 

[mvrabel50]

What makes people think Houston is such a lock vs NYJ, CIN, OAK, SD, TEN? If they are then they are as tough as any, either way its not about avoiding teams its about playing well, rushing the passer, hitting the open man etc. We haven't played a solid playoff game since vs Jacksonville in 07.

Nobody is saying anything is a lock, just predicting. I think they have a really good chance against the Jets or Cincy who will most likely get the 6th seed.

 

[mvrabel50]

Curious to see how everyone thinks the last two weeks will play out and what the playoff seedings will look like...

Here's my guess:

1 PIT
2 NE
3 HOU
4 DEN
5 BAL
6 NYJ

 

[jmt57]

Assuming the Pats get a 1st round bye, are they better off going in as the 2 seed? I know they won't be playing at Gillette if they face the Steelers in the AFC Championship game but I think they'll have an easier matchup in their first playoff game. They'll probably end up playing Houston instead of Baltimore. Then we just hope that Baltimore beats the Steelers and the AFC Championship goes through Gillette.

I can't deal with another one and done in the playoffs.

Regardless of who Baltimore plays, i think they'll win their first game. I'm not really afraid of them, but I think we have a much better chance of beating Houston who I think will win their first round game against the 6.

Ravens have a very similar defense than Houston, but wouldn't you much rather play Houston with a rookie QB with no playoff experience? Sure they have a great running game, but that plays into the only strength of our defense. I guess I just can't see our defense stepping up and beating a decent qb.

I can understand your logic of a team attempting to position themselves against an opponent for whom they match up more favorably. I'm just not sure that the negatives outweigh the positives though.

1. By doing so the Pats would give up home field in a potential AFCCG against Pittsburgh, should that occur.

2. Is there really that big a difference in the Pats chances against Baltimore in comparison to Houston?

- Passing game: yes, the Texans have Yates at the most important position in the game, but I don't think Flacco is all that special either. Houston's WRs - with Andre Johnson presumably 100% healthy at that point - probably offset that difference. The Texans offense is actually statistically better by a narrow margin: 24.5 ppg (8th) to the Ravens' 23.9 (12th) and 377.4 yards per game (10th) to Baltimore's 342.0 (15th). Houston is averaging 7.9 yards per pass attempt (8th), completing 60.4% of their passes (14th) with a QB rating of 94.1 (7th); Baltimore is 6.7 ypa (22nd), 57.5% (23rd) and 80.8 (16th).

- Running game: Yards per rush: Houston 4.4 (11th); Baltimore 4.1 (19th); yards per game: Houston 151.8 (2nd); Baltimore 115.2 (16th). Ray Rice is a beast, but Arian Foster and Ben Tate are matchup nightmares for defenses too.

- Defensively there is not a whole lot of difference. They've allowed an identical number of points (16.9 ppg, 3rd); Houston has allowed slightly fewer yards (277.9 ypg, 2nd; Baltimore is 3rd with 287.9); Houston has forced 25 turnovers (5th) while Baltimore is just behind them with 24 (7th).

3. If there does happen to be an upset then the #1 seed plays the lowest seed and the #2 seed plays the higher seed. If Houston is truly that bad with Yates at QB, they could get knocked out in the first round - in which case the winner of that game goes on to play Pittsburgh while the Pats would still end up with Baltimore - unless of course they go out west and lose once again, in which case the Pats would be playing the AFCW winner.


I can certainly understand your reasoning - and I can completely understand your desire for the Pats to avoid another loss in their first playoff game of the post-season. I'm just not convinced that it's all that it is a clear-cut benefit to go into the playoffs as the number two seed rather than the number one seed.

 

[jmt57]

Curious to see how everyone thinks the last two weeks will play out and what the playoff seedings will look like...

Here's my guess:

1 PIT
2 NE
3 HOU
4 DEN
5 BAL
6 NYJ

That would be my guess as well. I'd really like to see SF win tonight but they'll be without Joe Staley and probably Patrick Willis; plus Frank Gore is not 100%. Denver finishes at Buffalo and home vs KC; I think they'll win both games which would give them the AFCW. I think the Giants will beat the Jets, but then they'll back into a playoff spot when Cincinnati loses at home to Baltimore in week 17.

 

[Dutchmaster617]

Nobody is saying anything is a lock, just predicting. I think they have a really good chance against the Jets or Cincy who will most likely get the 6th seed.

I predict then that if New England doesn't get cute and just plays football they can beat anyone, 10 wins in 10 straight years has to mean we can beat anyone when we try.

Yup and it goes both ways, if we act like we are given wins then the Chiefs for all we know can come and get revenge. Seeding isn't very important after last year, the team decides each playoff game if they want to advance, not the seeding.

 

[PATSYLICIOUS]

In theory it sounds better for us... but how many times in the NFL does theory actually translate to reality?

I'm hoping for the 1 seed and would gladly take a 2 seed as consolation if that doesn't work out for us. Then who knows maybe it would work in our favor. But if we make it past round 2 I want to be at Gillette, we're a much better team there. As much success as we've had against the Steelers, Brady is essentially 2-2 in Heinz, 3-2 if you count 2001 but Bledsoe played a majority of the game. It's good but he's 2-0 against them at home with 2 huge games. And Baltimore is undefeated at home this year, while being a very mediocre team on the road. Gotta want that #1 seed

 

[mvrabel50]

I can understand your logic of a team attempting to position themselves against an opponent for whom they match up more favorably. I'm just not sure that the negatives outweigh the positives though.

1. By doing so the Pats would give up home field in a potential AFCCG against Pittsburgh, should that occur.

2. Is there really that big a difference in the Pats chances against Baltimore in comparison to Houston?

- Passing game: yes, the Texans have Yates at the most important position in the game, but I don't think Flacco is all that special either. Houston's WRs - with Andre Johnson presumably 100% healthy at that point - probably offset that difference. The Texans offense is actually statistically better by a narrow margin: 24.5 ppg (8th) to the Ravens' 23.9 (12th) and 377.4 yards per game (10th) to Baltimore's 342.0 (15th). Houston is averaging 7.9 yards per pass attempt (8th), completing 60.4% of their passes (14th) with a QB rating of 94.1 (7th); Baltimore is 6.7 ypa (22nd), 57.5% (23rd) and 80.8 (16th).

- Running game: Yards per rush: Houston 4.4 (11th); Baltimore 4.1 (19th); yards per game: Houston 151.8 (2nd); Baltimore 115.2 (16th). Ray Rice is a beast, but Arian Foster and Ben Tate are matchup nightmares for defenses too.

- Defensively there is not a whole lot of difference. They've allowed an identical number of points (16.9 ppg, 3rd); Houston has allowed slightly fewer yards (277.9 ypg, 2nd; Baltimore is 3rd with 287.9); Houston has forced 25 turnovers (5th) while Baltimore is just behind them with 24 (7th).

3. If there does happen to be an upset then the #1 seed plays the lowest seed and the #2 seed plays the higher seed. If Houston is truly that bad with Yates at QB, they could get knocked out in the first round - in which case the winner of that game goes on to play Pittsburgh while the Pats would still end up with Baltimore - unless of course they go out west and lose once again, in which case the Pats would be playing the AFCW winner.


I can certainly understand your reasoning - and I can completely understand your desire for the Pats to avoid another loss in their first playoff game of the post-season. I'm just not convinced that it's all that it is a clear-cut benefit to go into the playoffs as the number two seed rather than the number one seed.

I wasn't saying that we'd definitely be better with the 2 seed, just a thought that I had. Kind of wanted to throw it out there and see if anybody else was thinking that way too. Obviously home field is huge in the AFC conference game, but just want to make sure we get to that game. I just think it's going to be tough for this team to beat both AFC North teams to get to the SB if it plays out the way i think it might..

It's hard to compare total season offensive numbers since Houston had Schaub playing for like ten or so games and Andre Johnson has missed so much time. I just think the Pats secondary would have a much easier time against an unproven rookie QB that's played a few games and only really had one good game (75 passer rating. Not saying Flacco's great, but his numbers are much better against questionable defenses.

Obviously there's no telling what will happen in the wild card week or what leads up to it.

 

[TBradyOwnsYou]

Yes our defense is horrible, but it's making strides every week. We keep showing little bits of improvement here and there while everyone else is starting to seemingly fall apart. I fear no one going in to the post season. Not the Ravens, not the Steelers, not the Packers, not the Saints. (Ok, maybe the Saints a little bit...)
But I will be rooting for San Fran tonight so we can have smooth sailing to the #1 seed.
The AFC will come through Foxboro!!

 

[mvrabel50]

Making strides? We've been making crappy QBs look like Joe Montana for the past 4 weeks.

 

[Jackson 2]

No, not ever, in my opinion.

 

[condon84]

Absolutely not. It doesn't matter who we play and what kind of scenario we can cook up regarding matchups, it's always better to have home field advantage.

I like our chances better at home versus anybody.

 

[Rob0729]

Making strides? We've been making crappy QBs look like Joe Montana for the past 4 weeks.

Rex Grossman completed 59.4% of his passes for 252 yards, 2 TDs, and INT. That certainly doesn't suck, but that isn't Montana-like. It wasn't even close to Grossman's best game of the season.

Orlofsky had something like 80 yards passing until the 4th quarter with the Pats up by three TDs. That certainly isn't Montana-like.

Young got something like 220 of his 400 yards in garbage time.

Tebow had 194 yards and most of them came in garbage time.

I am not excusing the defense for not playing a full 60 minutes, but people get too hung up on game stats and not what happened during the game. Not one of the QBs that Pats have faced over the last four games would be considered a good game by a Tom Brady or Drew Brees or Aaron Rodgers or even second tier QBs. If the Pats made the opposing QB look anything romotely like Joe Montana, the Pats wouldn't have been 4-0 over the stretch.

 

[condon84]

Making strides? We've been making crappy QBs look like Joe Montana for the past 4 weeks.

No one team out there is perfect. Plus, I think our offense is one of the strongest if not the best unit in the league and can offset our terrible defense. I still like our chances. Even more so if we are at home.