Who Will Win this Week and Why?

[The_Dragon]

I believe in one of BB's press conferences, he did a mini-analysis of the 3-4 vs. 4-3, he considered the 3-4 a better run formation and the 4-3 a better pass formation. You've probably noted the Pats going to a 4-3 on passing downs, dropping the OLBs down as DEs and moving Sey inside with Green.

Putting my easy chair coach's hat on: the 4-3 was used against the Jets in the Meadowlands, the 3-4 in Gillette. The 4-3 would seem to do a better job of clogging throwing lanes with Vince at 6-2 having the shortest arms to bat down a pass - Warren and Sey at 6-6 are both good at that. Green at 6-3 is just a great penetrator to pressure the backfield. The disadvantage is it's harder to disguise who is rushing. If Penny is throwing short, then it makes sense to clog the throwing lanes and sacrifice some run yardage.

If Vince's ankle is still tender, this takes pressure off of him to hold the nose, he'll have Sey inside to help and have Wright for rest periods.

Thanks Box_O_Rocks. Obscuring Pennington's vision and clogging the lanes with the taller linemen for the short routes wasn't something I had thought of. Like all good ideas it's very simple.

I have noticed how Green comes in for the throwing situations - he ran riot when brought in against the Bengals earlier in the year with Palmer throwing the catch up.

The starting seven in a 4-3 would be Warren - Wilfork - Seymour - Green - Vrabel - Bruschi - Colvin I assume?



I'll try to get my hands on that BB press conference. Alternatively if anyone has it in their possesion I'd appreciate a copy.

 

[The_Dragon]

Two gap is an on-field assignment - an area of responsibility for the defender. One gap is usually a penetrating, get there firstest with the mostest approach.

In two gap the Nose Tackle is responsible for the 'a' gaps between the Guards and Center. The Inside Linebackers are responsible for the 'a' and 'b' gaps on their side - this creates an overlap on the 'a' gap with the NT. The Defensive Ends have the 'b' and 'c' gaps, overlapping the 'b' with the ILBs. The Outside Linebackers cover the 'c' and 'd' gaps, overlapping the 'c' gap with the DE. Instead of penetrating by shooting a gap, they control their area along the line of scrimmage and try to create an opportunity for one of the gap defenders to slip the block and make the tackle. The OLBs also get the containment assignment to force the RB back inside into the high traffic area by 'setting the edge.' In a 2-gap 4-3 it still gets divided up that way, the gap assignment may change on each down due to defensive shifts to overload one side or another.

Thanks again Box_O_Rocks. This info is much appreciated. I'll have to read this a few times to get it!

 

[AFPatsFan12]

Saturday 4:30 -- Kansas City @ Indianapolis: I don't know why, but this game just feels like a carbon copy of the Colts-Bengals game on MNF a couple of weeks ago. Everyone thought Rudi Johnson would run roughshod through the Colts paper-machee run D, yet the Bungels outthought themselves, opened up the passing game early, and then when they tried to go back to the run, found no success. Indy is 8-0 at home, and while the Chiefs don't have as moribund a D as in past years, it's still not THAT great. Colts in a not-so-terribly competitive game: Indianapolis 34 Kansas City 17

Saturday 8:00 -- Dallas @ Seattle: MEH...Seattle, at home, sucks a little less than Dallas, on the road. A late Romo pick seals this one, mercifully sending football fans everywhere to bed: Seattle 28 Dallas 21

Sunday 1:00 -- New York Jets @ New England: A game that conjures up images of November 12th early with Noodle Arm controlling the clock, and running the "circa 2001 Patriots short passing game" to a T. The adrenaline finally wears off, however, and the Patriots talent overcomes the initial surge. Look for big days from Dillon/Maroney and a bruising day from Heath Evans. The Pats finally take control of this game late, and Pennington can't bring his team back: New England 20 New York Jets 14

Sunday 4:30 -- New York Giants @ Philadelphia: The Giants really blow. Fortunately (??) for them, the Redskins really blow as well, and the NFC REALLLLLLY blows, so they get to play a 17th game. Philly is probably playing better than any team outside of Qualcomm and MAYBE M&T Bank recently. Division rivalries be damned, this is nothing but a laugher: Philly 41 NYG 13

 

[PatsFanInVa]

Dragon I think you gave me credit for some extra ammo brought by the next poster (the point on shedding blocks... which falls under execution, although my original post pointed toward tackling rather than getting to the ballcarrier.)We had some games where the tackling was hard to watch... I remember yelling "Somebody TACKLE the guy!" a time or two... but I think that poster is right, and that the lion's share of critique had to do with LBs shedding the blocks. I think also in 2002 we were pre-Ted Washington, and nobody else we had was up to the task of playing nose in the 3-4... since then we've been blessed with Traylor, and then Wilfork.

Here's a page explaining what another poster was saying about the gap responsibilities, with diagram.

http://football.calsci.com/DefensiveLine3.html

I'm not a font of football wisdom but the more I know that more fun the games are. Patsfans.com has been great for that. Welcome to a great resource, and enjoy!

PFnV

 

[Box_O_Rocks]

Thanks Box_O_Rocks. Obscuring Pennington's vision and clogging the lanes with the taller linemen for the short routes wasn't something I had thought of. Like all good ideas it's very simple.

I have noticed how Green comes in for the throwing situations - he ran riot when brought in against the Bengals earlier in the year with Palmer throwing the catch up.

The starting seven in a 4-3 would be Warren - Wilfork - Seymour - Green - Vrabel - Bruschi - Colvin I assume?



I'll try to get my hands on that BB press conference. Alternatively if anyone has it in their possesion I'd appreciate a copy.

http://www.patriots.com/homepage/ or http://www.allthingsbillbelichick.com/index.html happy hunting!

 

[The_Dragon]

Dragon I think you gave me credit for some extra ammo brought by the next poster (the point on shedding blocks... which falls under execution, although my original post pointed toward tackling rather than getting to the ballcarrier.)We had some games where the tackling was hard to watch... I remember yelling "Somebody TACKLE the guy!" a time or two... but I think that poster is right, and that the lion's share of critique had to do with LBs shedding the blocks. I think also in 2002 we were pre-Ted Washington, and nobody else we had was up to the task of playing nose in the 3-4... since then we've been blessed with Traylor, and then Wilfork.

Here's a page explaining what another poster was saying about the gap responsibilities, with diagram.

http://football.calsci.com/DefensiveLine3.html

I'm not a font of football wisdom but the more I know that more fun the games are. Patsfans.com has been great for that. Welcome to a great resource, and enjoy!

PFnV

Much obliged PFnV. Both for the welcome and the link. Thanks!

 

[Box_O_Rocks]

Here's a page explaining what another poster was saying about the gap responsibilities, with diagram.

http://football.calsci.com/DefensiveLine3.html

PFnV

Kewl PFnV! Thanks!

 

[E Belichick Unum]

Pats open up on defense and stuff the run on first down, blitz on second and third, resulting in a vicious sack. By the end of the game the Pats are up 32 to 7 and Penington has been sacked three times, knocked down 8 more times.

Offense, Brady hits his first 8, Marony breaks a long one in the first half for a TD.

The Jets have issues, their DBs are worse than ours was last year, their defensive line is undersized. Their LB's are very good and if they can be handled, the Jets are screwed. Look for a lot of crossing patterns to tie the linebackers up, it also limits the amount of zone blitzing. With their backfield they will be playing a lot of zone, look for medium posts in the soft spot in the zone. When the Jets start to slump into the middle of the zone, watch for Brady to go deep and try to hit on some big plays.

Pennington's arm was never that good, and it hasn't gotten any better with the two surgeries. His strength is the sideline out and the middle post. His WR's are better than ours, but his arm strengh minimizes that advantage. Their running game is just OK, although Washington looks very good, but it is our greatest strength on Defense. If it were up to me, I would apply early pressure on Pennington, try to knock him around a little. If you watched any of their games this year, he is a pretty mobile QB, but gets a little timid when he gets hit. Maybe a stunt or two on the line, they have two rookies starting and D'Brick has given uo 10 sacks.

All in all, the Patsies should romp this weekend.

 

[RyanTheColtsFan]

Most of the 4 letter goons are picking KC & NE. In the Patriots case, I think its very valid. In the Colts case, they're doing their usual bullcarp "Lets be safe and pick the easiest outcome".

Vegas just bumped the Colts up to +7. Now tell me who you'd be more confident in trusting... The line makers or those losers Mark Schlereth and Sealsbury Steak?

 

[PatsDeb]

Most of the 4 letter goons are picking KC & NE. In the Patriots case, I think its very valid. In the Colts case, they're doing their usual bullcarp "Lets be safe and pick the easiest outcome".

Vegas just bumped the Colts up to +7. Now tell me who you'd be more confident in trusting... The line makers or those losers Mark Schlereth and Sealsbury Steak?

Aren't you concerned about the Colt's run D? They haven't exactly inspired confidence in the last month of the season. How will they stop LJ? I saw how you put down Trent Green for several turnovers. What if those don't happen or Herm takes your advice and starts Damon Huard?

 

[RyanTheColtsFan]

Aren't you concerned about the Colt's run D? They haven't exactly inspired confidence in the last month of the season. How will they stop LJ? I saw how you put down Trent Green for several turnovers. What if those don't happen or Herm takes your advice and starts Damon Huard?

They've given up 100 yards every week this season. People think its something new that the Run D is miserable. They won 12 games the way it is. Sanders has to be worth something.

 

[shirtsleeve]

Long time lurker, first time poster. ;-) Love reading the various posts, especially the series by series analysis. Have these been discontinued?

Pats v Jets - Pats. Have to say that as a fan but logically it points to a Pats win. I think it will be close right till the end but I think our D is more likely to make a play to pull out a win. The loss at home to the Jets in the regular season will be a huge motivating factor as well.

The Jets will probably try and stack the box against the run again early on but I feel that our offense is in a lot better place than it was when we last lost to the Jets, specifically in the passing game(Thomas, Gaffney etc, all more familiar and comfortable with the system). Andre Dyson being out helps a lot as well.

Pats win.

Colts v Chiefs - For all the problems the Colts have in stopping the run I still expect them to win and I expect Manning to play well. I can see a 2 TD win for the Colts.

As an aside I would imagine that stopping the run is an one of the easier problem to remedy as oppossed, to say, poor pass defense. I mean that in the sense that it is easier to teach some to tackle than it is to get someone to cover a receiver - would I be naive in saying this?

Eagles v Giants - Dangerous game for the Eagles as not much is expected of the Giants I feel. However if the Eagles can take away the Giants running game - and they did in both regular season games - then I don't believe Manning is, on current form, capable of winning the game for the Giants. Eagles win.

Hawks v Cowboys - I find this one hard to call. Both teams have problems and yet both also have a lot of potential upside. Dallas' D is a lot better than it has shown in recent weeks IMO and Seattle's offense is capable of being explosive if they can jel. If I had to pick I'd take the Cowboys as they have shown more form in patches throughout the season.

Welcome Dragon! Excellent first post! I would like to add that in the Pats/Jest game, we should win the battle of the line of scrimmage (with the exception of Matt Light?) But I am a bit concerned about the WR's of the Jests against the DB's of our Pats. I think we find a way to control them and win by 10.

I am picking the Chiefs as the surprise winner of the upset of the week against the Dolts. I have to disagree with your opinion of fixing a running D. If the Dolts stack the box, they are going to have a very long day getting exploited with short passes with tons of YAC.

Uglies comfortably handle the Gints. They will stop Tiki again and when you threaten pain on a Manning, they ALWAYS choke and fold like a cardboard box.

There isn't much to worry about when it comes to our first draft pick next year. Dallas is going to dominate the Hawks. The Hawks are starting a rookie and a safety at corner. Hasselback has a season QB ranking in the 60's. Dallas by 2 TD's.

Welcome to the board. I look foreward to bright posts like this from you in the future.

 

[frankiesfly]

Pats vs. Jets- Pats in a blow out win, making a statement. Revenge for last game when jets won. Pennington throws three INTS. Brady completes passes to at least 7 dfferent recievers, three of them Td's. Reche has 50 yard+ td reception.pats win 38-14

Cowboys vs. Seahawks- Cowboys are a bad team period. They are to inconsistent for my liking,from the QB position to ther Wide reciever position. They never get over there loss to Detroit. Alexander has 3 TD's and 150 rushing yards. Romo 2 picks. Hawks win 28-7.

Chiefs vs. Colts- How bad i want the Chiefs to win,and hope they do, i dont see it happening. Larry Johnson isnt enough to win in Indy. The Colts are undefeated at home and it will stay that way. In this high scoring game, LJ's three TD's arent enough to beat the Colts in this high scoring shootout. Colts win 41-31.

 

[PatsDeb]

Well, it appears everyone thinks the Pats will win (big surprise), most think the Eagles will win, and things are divided between Dallas/Hawks and KC/Indy. Should be an interesting weekend.

 

[PatsFan37]

Here's a page explaining what another poster was saying about the gap responsibilities, with diagram.

http://football.calsci.com/DefensiveLine3.html
PFnV

Nice link, PFnV, much obliged.

As Box pointed out above, (I think it was him), BB likes to switch off to a 4-3 in passing downs, but keeps the two-gap discipline. They're pretty effective at stopping surprise runs that way and still good at generating pressure and flooding the field with coverage.

If there's a weakness, it seems to be defending the pass on 1st down.

Also, I've seen them telegraph the safety blitz a couple times. Against the Titans, you could see Rodney (sadly, it won't be him this time) creep up to the line, and there'd be a delay in the snap count, and everyone knows he's coming, and then the snap and Rodney blitzes anyway.

Now on that play, he got through, which makes me question the intelligence of the QB for not pointing him out to the line. Pennington will see it coming, get the safety blocked, and take advantage of the man-coverage.

Sometimes I feel I'm missing the razzle dazzle of the defense that we used to see, in mixing up formations.

 

[Box_O_Rocks]

Nice link, PFnV, much obliged.

As Box pointed out above, (I think it was him), BB likes to switch off to a 4-3 in passing downs, but keeps the two-gap discipline. They're pretty effective at stopping surprise runs that way and still good at generating pressure and flooding the field with coverage.

If there's a weakness, it seems to be defending the pass on 1st down.

Also, I've seen them telegraph the safety blitz a couple times. Against the Titans, you could see Rodney (sadly, it won't be him this time) creep up to the line, and there'd be a delay in the snap count, and everyone knows he's coming, and then the snap and Rodney blitzes anyway.

Now on that play, he got through, which makes me question the intelligence of the QB for not pointing him out to the line. Pennington will see it coming, get the safety blocked, and take advantage of the man-coverage.

Sometimes I feel I'm missing the razzle dazzle of the defense that we used to see, in mixing up formations.

I expect the Safeties to play back and let the front 7 handle run defense.

 

[TheBostonStraggler]

Long time lurker, first time poster. ;-) Love reading the various posts, especially the series by series analysis. Have these been discontinued?

Pats v Jets - Pats. Have to say that as a fan but logically it points to a Pats win. I think it will be close right till the end but I think our D is more likely to make a play to pull out a win. The loss at home to the Jets in the regular season will be a huge motivating factor as well.

The Jets will probably try and stack the box against the run again early on but I feel that our offense is in a lot better place than it was when we last lost to the Jets, specifically in the passing game(Thomas, Gaffney etc, all more familiar and comfortable with the system). Andre Dyson being out helps a lot as well.

Pats win.

Colts v Chiefs - For all the problems the Colts have in stopping the run I still expect them to win and I expect Manning to play well. I can see a 2 TD win for the Colts.

As an aside I would imagine that stopping the run is an one of the easier problem to remedy as oppossed, to say, poor pass defense. I mean that in the sense that it is easier to teach some to tackle than it is to get someone to cover a receiver - would I be naive in saying this?

Eagles v Giants - Dangerous game for the Eagles as not much is expected of the Giants I feel. However if the Eagles can take away the Giants running game - and they did in both regular season games - then I don't believe Manning is, on current form, capable of winning the game for the Giants. Eagles win.

Hawks v Cowboys - I find this one hard to call. Both teams have problems and yet both also have a lot of potential upside. Dallas' D is a lot better than it has shown in recent weeks IMO and Seattle's offense is capable of being explosive if they can jel. If I had to pick I'd take the Cowboys as they have shown more form in patches throughout the season.

Dangerous game for the Eagles? Maybe if there is a lightning storm overhead and they were wearing lightning rods on the top of their helmets and aluminum foil pads. This is as close to a lock as there is. The Giants have a coach who not only is a certainty to be gone after their next loss but unable to motivate players who seemingly have tuned him out. They have little pass rush. They have a QB struggling to do anything. And many don't believe, including their own players, that they even belong in the playoffs. They also have no momentum coming in. The Eagles are playing the most consistent ball in the NFC. Peaking at the right time. Have momentum. They are playoff experienced. They are at home. Vegas would be wise to put the odds at Eagles -17. It wouldn't be right cause I believe the Eagles will beat them by more than 17. This one is over by the half.

Regarding the Jets/Pats, I agree that they will stack the box as needed to stop the run. If they can do it with just 7 they will. If they need 8 they will. Stop the run and blitz Brady will be their defensive plan. If they don't do that, they are crazy. If the Pats establish a strong run game, this should be a comfortable win for the Patriots. If the Jets effectively limit our rushing yards and blitz like hell, victory will be uncertain enough for me to feel measurably worried.

 

[The_Dragon]

I am picking the Chiefs as the surprise winner of the upset of the week against the Dolts. I have to disagree with your opinion of fixing a running D. If the Dolts stack the box, they are going to have a very long day getting exploited with short passes with tons of YAC.

Uglies comfortably handle the Gints. They will stop Tiki again and when you threaten pain on a Manning, they ALWAYS choke and fold like a cardboard box.

Thanks for the welcome shirtsleeve!

Reagrding the Chiefs v Colts game - I'm not sold on the Chiefs passing attack since Green has been reinstated. Outside of Gonzalez I don't see a major threat that will worry the Colts unduly. The Colts took a chance coming to Foxboro in stacking the box against the run and I can see them taking that chance again to stop LJ. I just don't see the Chiefs being able to punish them for that in the passing game.

On the Eli Manning topic - I heard commentators discuss this recently and I had noticed it a few times this year - he really does have a fear of being hit doesn't he? I've seen him turn his back after throwing and not stepping into throws for fear of being hit. It reall affects his accuracy and it must be really demoralising to be playing offense with someone like that, especially the QB, the supposed leader of the team.

Makes me appreciate Brady's toughness all the more. The commentators on the Redskins - Giants game last week actually used Brady as an example of what Eli should be aiming for in terms of hanging in there and taking the hit.

 

[bakes781]

1. Pats vs. Jets - Pats, but probably not in a blowout like many are predicting. With Harrison out it's up to the DL to pressure Penny, so we don't get beat for a big play again. I think the new field turf has given Brady confidence & he will be better prepared for the "Mangenius" scheme.

2. Indy vs. KC - KC, because it's clear to anyone watching football that the Colts can't stop the run. And if there's a team that can pound you with the run it's KC. Turnovers & special teams will be key in this one as I expect a score in the high 30s.

3. Seattle vs. Dallas. Seattle in another close one. Despite the injuries to the DB Seattle has a huge homefield advantage. And with Romo's inexperience already starting to show of late I expect him to crack under pressure. Where as Hasselbeck is coming off a SB appearance & that bitter taste of losing is still very fresh I'm sure.

4. Eagles vs. Giants. Eagles in quite possible the most convincing win of the weekend. Tiki Barber is clearly the only consistent weapon for NY. Garcia has been playing better than any QB in the NFC in the 2nd half of the season. Eli & Coughlin are not on the same page & it will likely cost Tom his job IMO.