If you could ask Bill Belichick one of these questions, which would it be?

[ausbacker]

His best coaching job for mine. I'd love to sit down and watch the game listening to him explain the decisions he made, the roles assigned to players and how they executed those requirements.

 

[Gumby]

I think the FG question is easy.

1. Young kicker who may have been impressionable to the hype and lights of the SB. Why mess with his confidence by throwing him in there where the pecentages to miss probably outweighed the percentages to make it? BB likely felt as though a miss by a young kicker may have thrown him off for the rest of the game..

Excuse me - mess w/ his confidence - THAT IS HIS JOB. Should brady have not thrown any passes in his first SB; (after all, he could have thrown an INT)?

2. It was not at a crucial point in the game IIRC. Had it been later, the decision may have been different. It would have been at least considered more. At that early of a juncture, it probably wasn't the best choice to try the attempt. It's just a coincidence that leads us to ask the question about the FG now, since the score was 17-14. A much more relevant question may be to ask the coach about some of the defensive calling/scheming on the Giants' final drive.

I don't know about the 'everyone being smarter after the fact'; I was screaming at the TV at the time. The change in field position was NOT that much and as I recall there wasn't that much time left for the giants to take advantage of it.

As to the defensive scheme calling - the stuff that has come out about both DB this week and about Asante when he was traded reveals that there was 'A WHOLE LOTTA FREELANCING GOING ON OUT DAH.'

3. He may have known something that we don't know, such as (gasp) it may have been out of Gostkowski's range. It was obviously right on the cusp in a best case scenario.

BS! As the other poster said; HE WAS IN A DOME!!! Gost has a bigger leg than Vinatieri ever did; and BB has put Vin out there for longer shots in (outdoor) worse conditions.

At the end of the day I think this is one he would rather have back.

 

[supafly]

Excuse me - mess w/ his confidence - THAT IS HIS JOB. Should brady have not thrown any passes in his first SB; (after all, he could have thrown an INT)?



I don't know about the 'everyone being smarter after the fact'; I was screaming at the TV at the time. The change in field position was NOT that much and as I recall there wasn't that much time left for the giants to take advantage of it.

As to the defensive scheme calling - the stuff that has come out about both DB this week and about Asante when he was traded reveals that there was 'A WHOLE LOTTA FREELANCING GOING ON OUT DAH.'



BS! As the other poster said; HE WAS IN A DOME!!! Gost has a bigger leg than Vinatieri ever did; and BB has put Vin out there for longer shots in (outdoor) worse conditions.

At the end of the day I think this is one he would rather have back.

Dude, you can say or question whatever you want. That is certainly your right, and I respect it--like anyone else, but c'mon, these are simple/easy reasons as to what Belichick was likely thinking at the time.

Pick one...pick two..any of them are very reasonable. I think any of them are very fitting as to what he was thinking, and pretty much exactly what he'd say.

You may not agree with it--my theory, or Belichick's decision, but what else are you going to come up with?

What is your assessment on why Belichick didn't opt to try the FG attempt? He didn't want to win the game? He didn't want to get another 3 pts?

The feeling was he obviously felt that the percentage of missing was greater than the percentage of making it...case closed. That, and he likely took Ernie Adams' advice into play (I'm sure). Hell, he may have even taken Gostkowski's advice into play. For all we know, Gostkowski was 50/50 from that distance in pre-game warmups. It was not a short FG....Don't tell me about it being "his job" to make extremely long FG's. It's also Belichick's "job" to put his team in the best chance of winning, and that includes making choices as when to try and make a long FG, and when to pass that chance up. They both are very good at their "jobs," but that doesn't mean that Gostkowski should be knocked b/c he wasn't doing his job. Even the greatest of FG kickers know that the odds from 50+ aren't that great. What was Viniteri's percentage from 50+ his last yr here in New England? That's what I thought.

And the thinking that FG kickers are more prone to getting shaken up after an early miss in a big game (especially rookie/2nd yr kickers) has been proven time and time again. The kick was relatively early on. There could be something to it, there could not be..we'll likely never know. But I can guarantee you 100% that you can take any one or more reasons on my list, and Belichick would likely agree with that being one or more of his reasons as to why he chose NOT to try the long FG.

What else could it be? I mean--seriously...

 

[supafly]

^^^

And you're probably right that there was some freelancing going on during the last drive, but does that explain blitzing and leaving Ellis Hobbs one-on-one in a matchup nightmare with Burress, who was 6'5"? (With the entire season and SB on the line) That has nothing to do with freelancing. To be honest, I'm not even going to attempt to question a coach of his caliber, b/c it would be stupid and disrespectful, but you'd have to admit that there are certainly some questions on the final drive that we'd all like to know about. The issue of "freelancing" has absolutely nothing at all to do with anything. You are referring to one play where Samuel was out of position when Tyree caught the ball over harrison, but that does not explain all of the nuances on an 83 yrd drive to win the game. There was obviously more to it than that, and you could ask questions regarding ANY drive and it'd be relevant.

As far as Gostkowski's strong leg vs. Viniteri's leg---Adam had a plethora of invaluable experience which Gostkowski obviously did not. That was the difference there..and no other reason. You also have to remember that Gostkowski was either a 1st/2nd yr player at the time, so the choice may certainly be different now than opposed to the 2007 season.

We just went through a very similar scenario in last yr's playoff game against the NYJ, down 2 scores and needing points to try and come back. And what does Belichick do? He passes again on a potential 51 yrd FG attempt to cut the game to one score. Don't act like Gostkowski is known to walk out there time and again in a big game scenario and knock them in from 50+ like Adam Viniteri did. I am sure that BB wanted to win (and kick the FG) in BOTH scenarios. There are reasons why he chose not to try. Most importantly, he obviously felt as though the chances of Gostkowski making it was not that good. At least not as good as him missing it. I don't care who your FG kicker is, asking them to kick a 50+ yd FG is certainly not automatic, or anything close.

Again, we may never know, but if you're going to pick apart 4-5 very viable reasons and explanations that are obvious to just about all of us, then prepare to explain what your reasoning is etc...not to mention the fact that Belichick has ALREADY explained this the day after the game.

I am interested in hearing your assessment..since you do not see any of my 4-5 reasons as possible thoughts that based Belichick's choice to NOT try and put points on the board. There obviously was a good reason, that is without question.

I believe in the end he would simply say that he felt the percentages of missing were greater than the percentages of making it. It was not a short FG attempt. Why else would you go for it on 4th and 13???

This is not rocket science, and I am not sure why you are trying to make it out as some complicated matter??

 

[Gumby]

Don't tell me about it being "his job" to make extremely long FG's. It's also Belichick's "job" to put his team in the best chance of winning, and that includes making choices as when to try and make a long FG, and when to pass that chance up.

For the record - the comment about being 'his job'; was not about whether or not he makes the kick; it was about as originally stated "mess with his confidence".

A kicker's job is to go out there and kick it and then come out again the next time without thinking about the previous results.

(Try not to change my argument in order to prove yourself right.)


Thanks for the War and Peace on 'you have your opinion and I have mine'.

Any FG versus punt versus go for it decision is naturally a judgement call. I'm just saying; I for one, thought it was wrong as it occurred. And I am relatively aggressive in when I think you go for it on 4th down. So don't be dismissive of others who disagree with the decision whichever way they think was right.
In that case IMO I think 1. Kick, 2. Punt (coffin corner optimally) 3. Go for it was the right priority of choices (IN THIS INSTANCE )

If was less than 5-6 yds for a 1st then I think going for it was for sure # 2 depending on field position or #1 if same FG distance.

 

[supafly]

For the record - the comment about being 'his job'; was not about whether or not he makes the kick; it was about as originally stated "mess with his confidence".

A kicker's job is to go out there and kick it and then come out again the next time without thinking about the previous results.

(Try not to change my argument in order to prove yourself right.)


Thanks for the War and Peace on 'you have your opinion and I have mine'.

Any FG versus punt versus go for it decision is naturally a judgement call. I'm just saying; I for one, thought it was wrong as it occurred. And I am relatively aggressive in when I think you go for it on 4th down. So don't be dismissive of others who disagree with the decision whichever way they think was right. In that case IMO I think 1. Kick, 2. Go for it 3. Punt (coffin corner optimally) was the right priority of choices.

I'm not trying to change any argument. You stated that it was his job, as opposed to my saying that Belichick may have felt that it was not the best move to put a young, inexperienced kicker out there early on under the bright lights of the SB. The fact is that if he misses it may have runied his confidence later on in a more important situation. The thought is not that out of left field, it has been proven to be true many times over the yrs. Kickers are fragile creatures, and can be thrown off their game. It was really only 1 of 4-5 possible theories that I listed anyway. But you chose to try and pick apart ALL of them for whatever reason. You still haven't come up with any kind of better thought or answer.

Your assessment was that it doesn't matter to you re: the circumstances. Well, apparently it mattered to Belichick, or he would've done it. As I said before, it's BB's job to make that decision, and whether or not you agree with it is completely irrelevant.

As far as the "War and Peace" goes, most of us on here are able to read several paragraphs at a time...I am sorry that you got bored too easily. I stated several, viable theories which make a ton of sense. You chose to come back with "uggh...it's his job to be a kicker, he was in a dome..." That is not much of an argument.

Belichick uses a ton of relevant data, other opinions, Ernie Adams etc to come up with the best choice. As I proved, he made the exact same decision at home (on familiar grounds) in January to pass it up again..this time when the team was actually down 10 at the last gasp effort in the game, so your thoughts about it being Gostkowski's 'job' under any circumstances doesn't hold much water.

If you recall, Viniteri was what? 0 for 6 in a row from 50+ his last couple yrs here, so obviously the range isn't anywhere near automatic for any kicker--or at least the last 2 that we've had. Interestingly enough, Adam V. has only made 2 kicks over 50+ yds in the past 8 years...and he's one of the most clutch kickers of all time. From 2002--through his last yr here in 2005 he made 1 kick over 50 yds. In 2003, 2004, and 2005 he made 0.

As far as Gostkowski's attempts over 50+, Belichick obviously doesn't put him out there too often, as he has attempted a total of 3 in 5 yrs here, so that's an attempt of over 50+ every other YEAR. But you felt that early on in a reletively meaningless situation in the freaking SB was a good time to try that once every 28-30 game average?? Obviously, like I said, it's extremely simple reasoning why Belichick did not attempt the FG.

 

[Gumby]

Thanks for evaluating my reading skills from 3000 miles away.


I didn't say I didn't read your answer - just implied it was long and boring.

And I will explicitly say - repetitious.

Invoking the name 'ernie adams' over and over again may get you brownie points but doesnt win the argument. (especially if you never say what YOU THINK Ernie Adams definition of when to kick, punt or go for it is). I dont think his statistical argument says go for it on 4th and 13 from almost anywhere on the field.

And yes the argument does come down to something as simple as 'it was in a dome'.

he made the exact same decision at home (on familiar grounds) in January

HELLO SUPAFLY - Do you actually read what you write? Making the same decision at HOME (much more favorable to going for it) (OUTDOOR Stadium - much less favorable to kicking), in JANUARY (are you really equating Foxboro outdoors to dome condiitions for kicking) :bricks:,

Also for the record it would have been a 49 YARD attempt. Not 50+. Do FACTS LIKE THAT; have any influence on your opinion? So far your arguments haven't convinced me of much.

WIKIPEDIA:
The Patriots then drove to the Giants' 25, but Strahan sacked Brady for a 6-yard loss on third down. Then on 4th-and-13, with the ball on the Giants' 31, Belichick decided against a long field goal attempt by Stephen Gostkowski (which would have been a 49-yard attempt, near Gostkowski's season long of 50 yards) and tried to pick up a first down instead. Brady's pass to Jabar Gaffney was incomplete as it went out of the back of the end zone and the Giants took over on downs.

 

[supafly]

I think the FG question is easy.

1. Young kicker who may have been impressionable to the hype and lights of the SB. Why mess with his confidence by throwing him in there where the pecentages to miss probably outweighed the percentages to make it? BB likely felt as though a miss by a young kicker may have thrown him off for the rest of the game..

2. It was not at a crucial point in the game IIRC. Had it been later, the decision may have been different. It would have been at least considered more. At that early of a juncture, it probably wasn't the best choice to try the attempt. It's just a coincidence that leads us to ask the question about the FG now, since the score was 17-14. A much more relevant question may be to ask the coach about some of the defensive calling/scheming on the Giants' final drive.

3. He may have known something that we don't know, such as (gasp) it may have been out of Gostkowski's range. It was obviously right on the cusp in a best case scenario.

And finally, and most importantly...

4. Ernie told him not to kick it!!

Thanks for evaluating my reading skills from 3000 miles away.


I didn't say I didn't read your answer - just implied it was long and boring.

And I will explicitly say - repetitious.

Invoking the name 'ernie adams' over and over again may get you brownie points but doesnt win the argument. (especially if you never say what YOU THINK Ernie Adams definition of when to kick, punt or go for it is). I dont think his statistical argument says go for it on 4th and 13 from almost anywhere on the field.

And yes the argument does come down to something as simple as 'it was in a dome'.



HELLO SUPAFLY - Do you actually read what you write? Making the same decision at HOME (much more favorable to going for it) (OUTDOOR Stadium - much less favorable to kicking), in JANUARY (are you really equating Foxboro outdoors to dome condiitions for kicking) :bricks:,

Also for the record it would have been a 49 YARD attempt. Not 50+. Do FACTS LIKE THAT; have any influence on your opinion? So far your arguments haven't convinced me of much.

Whether it was 49 yards or 50, the thought remains the same.

If Vinieteri and Gostkowski combined from 2003--2007 (5 seasons) had only made ONE kick from long distance, my thought that Belichick may have felt that it was a bad scenario to try at that point in the game with a young, inexperienced kicker is certainly relevant.

YOU chose to take 4-5 relevant and possible scenarios and purposely break them down one-by-one as to why they were "wrong" in your opinion. You could have disagreed with the post, but thought "that's fair enough reasoning." Why you chose to break down each one, which all were quite possible, is beyond me?

The comparison to Jan in Foxboro vs the SB is relevant due to the fact that we were down 10 and it was a last ditch hope and effort. If BB is not going to try in that scenario, then he's certainly going to think pretty hard when choosing to do so, as proven by his 3 total attempts in the Gostkowski era.

 

[supafly]

And for what it's worth to you, the coach addressed this topic the day after the SB anyway, to where he stated that he did not feel that attempting the kick was the right move at the time. Which is exactly what I have said now numerous times.

As far as bringing up E.Adams, I am not sure why it would get me brownie points? We all know that he refers to him in many important situations. It was likely the 2 of their choices that it was not a good move at the time, whether it was 'only' 49 as you say or not. The kick was a damn long one.

I'm totally fine with your disagreeing, that's what the boards are about, but to choose to pick apart a bunch of reasonable thoughts was just strange. Surely there was something in there that made sense to you, no?

And I don't know what was so boring and repetitious? I brought up many facts to back my argument up. I am sorry that I bored you, but my point remains the same. Any one of those 4 facts was probably the reason, if not more than one.

Again, for the last time---why do you feel as though he chose not to kick the FG? All you have done is told me that you disagree with it. No sh!t. I understand that. But what do you feel is the reasoning behind it, if you don't see any of my reasons as being correct?

 

[supafly]

Invoking the name 'ernie adams' over and over again may get you brownie points but doesnt win the argument. (especially if you never say what YOU THINK Ernie Adams definition of when to kick, punt or go for it is). I dont think his statistical argument says go for it on 4th and 13 from almost anywhere on the field.

Of course Adams doesn't think that going for it on 4th and 13 is a high percentage move, but it was the only other option because they chose NOT to try the FG...

Apparently they were attacking and trying to score. You are right in saying that maybe BB wishes he could do it over, I wouldn't doubt that. But at the time that is what he (or they) chose to do.

It doesn't matter what I think Adams' defintion of when to go for it or not is, that is absolutely meaningless. I am not saying that I question him or anyone. I am saying that I gave several reasons why not trying the FG may have been the right move.

I still don't get what the problem is?

 

[Gumby]

Just for the record. some more FACTS for us to chew on together.

Year Team 1-29 30-39 40-49 50+ FG-Att Pct
2006 NEP 10-11 7-10 2-4 1-1 20-26 76.9
2007 NEP 10-10 8-9 3-5 0-0 21-24 87.5
2008 NEP 10-12 16-16 9-11 1-1 36-40 90.0
2009 NEP 7-7 12-13 5-8 2-3 26-31 83.9
2010 NEP 2-2 6-7 2-3 0-1 10-13 76.9
Totals: 39-42 49-55 21-31 4-6 113-134 84.3

Going by that Gost had a 100% rate on 50+ kicks. Statistically that is the WINNER!!!

Also note that the YOUNG IMPRESSIONABLE Gost was in his 2nd season. (in addition to having kicked in college).

I personally am not keen on your use of the fact that BB is pre-disposed in the past to NOT kick long FGs as a justification for why he shouldn't kick them in the SB. You say they (AV& SG) only "MADE one kick from distance"; but truth is as shown above BB doesnt chose to go for 50+ very often at all.

Make the decision based on the facts: yard-distance-field location-weather conditions and time on clock left. That decision to me was clear - KICK IT. If you miss the NYG are still on their side of the field. They got it anyway at the 31 by PATS missing on a shot in the EZ.

 

[supafly]

You say they (AV& SG) only "MADE one kick from distance"; but truth is as shown above BB doesnt chose to go for 50+ very often at all.

That is my whole entire point. As I said, he has only sent Gost out there 3 times in 5 yrs, so apparently Belichick does not normally feel as though it's a high percentage move.

That is what I have been saying the whole time. The fact that he would choose NOT to try a long FG of 49 yards is very reasonable to me, especially with a young 2nd yr kicker who was inexperienced and under the bright lights of the SB.

The fact that Gost kicked in the NCAA's is not meaning much, because he kicked off of a tee, so we can throw that out as not having much bearing on this debate.

Reagrdless, I get it. You don't agree. As I said before, I respect that, but to totally dismiss several completely reasonable points one-by-one because you don't agree isn't meaning much. As I keep asking you time and time again---what do you believe was the reason as to why BB passed up the chance to kick the FG?

B/c I have given many, none of which you apparently agree with, or come close to seeing as reasonable.

I am not even sure exactly what we are disagreeing about, but it's not my style. I don't get into back and forths---ever. So I appreciate your opinion, and am sorry for stating reasons with seemed pretty obvious and worthwhile.

Maybe Belichick just didn't want to win the game..I really don't even care anymore.

Thank you (in all seriousness) for defending the country, if that is why you are in germany. Take care.

 

[Froob]

I'm not sure I want to know the answer to the 1st one. That super bowl still burns. How much time was left on the 4th & 12 it was before the half wasn't it? Man if Brady had throw it a little better and Gaffney had caught that....

 

[MoLewisrocks]

Thread outcomes are so predictable here...

Like I said back on page 1. We already know the answers to these questions. Just don't like them. So this thread becomes another great opportunity to rehash 42...:bricks:

 

[Gumby]

That is my whole entire point. As I said, he has only sent Gost out there 3 times in 5 yrs, so apparently Belichick does not normally feel as though it's a high percentage move.

That is what I have been saying the whole time. The fact that he would choose NOT to try a long FG of 49 yards is very reasonable to me, especially with a young 2nd yr kicker who was inexperienced and under the bright lights of the SB.

Agree he doesn't think is high %; I am still saying that it was a higher % than throwing on 4-13 and that THEREFORE BB WAS WRONG.

The fact that Gost kicked in the NCAA's is not meaning much, because he kicked off of a tee, so we can throw that out as not having much bearing on this debate.

Reagrdless, I get it. You don't agree. As I said before, I respect that, but to totally dismiss several completely reasonable points one-by-one because you don't agree isn't meaning much. As I keep asking you time and time again---what do you believe was the reason as to why BB passed up the chance to kick the FG?

B/c I have given many, none of which you apparently agree with, or come close to seeing as reasonable.

I think WHY he did it is likely many of the reasons you gave; plus as you stated his prediliction against long FGs. But we can't get inside his head; unelss he is willing to answer the question (PREMISE OF THIS THREAD).

Heck maybe the reason you didn't list (Lack of sleep from dealing w/ Spygate questions) is the REAL reason he made that choice.

But I don't see why you keep searching for answers as to WHY? only BB can tell us that. I again just think it was statistically NOT THE RIGHT CHOICE. And that given the opportunity BB would mulligan that decision.

I am not even sure exactly what we are disagreeing about, but it's not my style. I don't get into back and forths---ever. So I appreciate your opinion, and am sorry for stating reasons with seemed pretty obvious and worthwhile.

Well Here we agree whole heartedly. Sometimes it takes 10 posts to come full circle and ..............kumbaya (sp?)

Maybe Belichick just didn't want to win the game..I really don't even care anymore.

Now you are just being silly.


Thank you (in all seriousness) for defending the country, if that is why you are in germany. Take care. [/QUOTE]

I appreciate the thanks - happily recently retired; but still serving (DA civilian)

 

[captain stone]

I'm not sure I want to know the answer to the 1st one. That super bowl still burns. How much time was left on the 4th & 12 it was before the half wasn't it? Man if Brady had throw it a little better and Gaffney had caught that....

4th/13 occured in the 3rd qtr, at the end of the Pats' longest drive of the game.

And if Brady had spotted a wide-open Welker, he never would've thrown it to a double-covered Gaffney.

 

[nashvillepatsfan]

I think the FG question is easy.

1. Young kicker who may have been impressionable to the hype and lights of the SB. Why mess with his confidence by throwing him in there where the pecentages to miss probably outweighed the percentages to make it? BB likely felt as though a miss by a young kicker may have thrown him off for the rest of the game..

2. It was not at a crucial point in the game IIRC. Had it been later, the decision may have been different. It would have been at least considered more. At that early of a juncture, it probably wasn't the best choice to try the attempt. It's just a coincidence that leads us to ask the question about the FG now, since the score was 17-14. A much more relevant question may be to ask the coach about some of the defensive calling/scheming on the Giants' final drive.

3. He may have known something that we don't know, such as (gasp) it may have been out of Gostkowski's range. It was obviously right on the cusp in a best case scenario.

And finally, and most importantly...

4. Ernie told him not to kick it!!

5. Before Gisele came along, TFB wouldve made that first down. BB simply didnt have a good scouting report on her. :bricks:

 

[NinjaZX6R]

Plz stop talking about black sunday. Makes me want to cry...and drink some everclear..

I passed the f*** out (via everclear) after that sad sad day.

 

[captain stone]

Mmm...Everclear...

 

[TheGodInAGreyHoodie]

None of the above...my question to him would be.....

"What the eff where you thinking wearing a RED hoodie to Super Bowl XLII? You are the Oracle in the Grey Hoodie. Red was the color the Patriots wore when they sucked. You know when we had coaches who were named after metal corrosion."

Okay maybe more of a rant than a question, but it has always made me wonder why he dressed that way on that day.