Another Theory on Patriot Draft Performance

[DropKickFlutie]

I saw this from PonyExpress buried in the Butler thread and thought it was such a great write-up that it deserved its own thread. We can debate all we want about whether Belichick has declined over time as a drafter, or blame/praise various members of his scouting/GM staff for why our drafts were strong or weak from year to year. One area that may be influencing which drafts pan out is how strong the extended Patriot coaching staff is in coaching up our young players and making them better.

Several ways of approaching this draft problem.

Historical parallel: Chuck Noll early 80s. Noll had been such a drafting genius throughout his tenure when he started to stumble it took onlookers about 5 years to realize the Steeler dynasty talent was not being replenished. He made blunder after blunder. He never regained his magic, with a few exceptions like Louis Lipps.

BB analysis: BB is recognizing his errors, not denying them like Noll did. That is a positive development, and indicates the potential for a drafting renaissance, supported by limited evidence from draftee performances in 2010.

As for the root reason for these draft errors, the problem may not be entirely related to the talent drafted, but the quality of coaching draftees are receiving. I do not mean they are deprived of information, I am speaking about the leadership ability of the extended coaching staff.

The principle decline for the Pats these past 5 years has been the coaching talent drain. Coaches such as Romeo, Charlie et al are invaluable leaders, and cannot be easily replaced. They are mentors, motivators, and tacticians, and influence every player with whom they come in contact. On a day to day basis they helped mold young men into mature, game ready warriors.

There is no shame in stating that their successors have not measured up from a talent development standpoint.

If we open our eyes and look closely at the debacle that occurred last playoffs, we will observe that our team was outcoached. If we match up the Jets current coaching staff with our coaching staff, man for man, an argument can be made the only position we dominate is Head coach. The Jets have Bill Callahan, Tom Moore, and Mike Westhoff on staff, 3 superior coaches. Ryan has to do is bluster to the media and motivate his defense, which is what he should be doing, that is his talent.

The principle area where we need improvement is in the coaching staff and player development. Hopefully the sting of last season was educational not just for our players but for the young bucks on the staff as well, who have matured as coaches. If so, the sky is the limit for this club this season, and championship predictions are justified.

 

[rookBoston]

I buy it. The players we've had over the last three years are, talent wise, superior to the 2001, 2003 and 2004 teams, and much deeper. David Patten and Rod Ruttledge at their prime could not make this team. The difference is the staff, not only coaching but backoffice. Romeo and Charlie, for sure, but McDaniels, Mangini, Pioli, Dimitroff were all core to those teams, and haven't been adequately backfilled.

 

[BlueThunder]

I have to agree with the assumption regarding the coaching staff....especially on the OFFENSE...Dante is still doing his outstanding job coaching up the OL, however the PLAYCALLING could be substantially improved......

When the fans can see what play is coming before it is called...imagine what the opposing DC's can see.....

Lets hope Ridley provides the running game with enough that defenses have to respect the run on 3rd and 5 or 6......no back the Pats have had recently (other than possibly Woodhead) provided that threat......putting Ridley AND Woodhead in the backfield may cause defenses a few problems in those situations.....they could even be used as a blitz pickup and a safety valve.....

Plenty of options with an imaginative OC.....

 

[kkpat]

Why did we not try to sign Romeo or Chaelie Weis before they joined Kansas Chiefs?

I think by trading down and getting more picks, we got some good players but lost on several players.

 

[Bostonian1962]

I can't prove this, but I think many of the "misses", have to be related somewhat to the trade down and add picks approach. You would think more picks would mean more hits, but if you take a 1st round pick, and turn it into a 2nd and 5th, wouldn't you be less likely to hit on one of them, than the 1st Round pick? That's just an example, but don't more 1st Round picks turn into stars, than any other round?

All that said, I agree that BB may just be learning from his mistakes. Last year was the best draft in the NFL and this year may turn out well also. Just my two cents.

 

[bagwell368]

Why did we not try to sign Romeo or Chaelie Weis before they joined Kansas Chiefs?

I believe we did, but much like BB had to get out of the shadow of the Tuna, these guys wanted to do something they would get credit for.

 

[mcsully]

We can tap dance around the subject but less than 3 years later, we've dropped a lot of draft picks... HIgh ones..

Bottom line


Our scouting department is not good..

 

[Patriot Missile]

I disagree. Look at the top 10 teams over the last 3 years and find how many starters they've produced. Chung,Mccourty,Vollmer,Gronkowski,Hernandez Spikes. Not to mention some of the lower picks or undrafted free agents that are able to contribute to this team.
The ability to use draft picks to get a player like Haynesworth or Ochocinco should also be taken into consideration.

I'm sure you'll find teams that have done a better job but not many.

 

[Seacoast Fan]

Not sure I buy this theory. I know Crennel and Weis have reputations, but its not like there were no draft day busts when they were around. Also, what is the support for the assertion that the Jet coaches...Callahan, Moore and Westhoff...are superior? I seem to remember more then a few games where Moore and his offensive charges, including Manning, were totally flummoxed. And while the jury may be out on this years draft for the Pats, I think last year's draft was pretty damn good...who "coached up" those draft picks?

 

[mcsully]

I disagree. Look at the top 10 teams over the last 3 years and find how many starters they've produced. Chung,Mccourty,Vollmer,Gronkowski,Hernandez Spikes. Not to mention some of the lower picks or undrafted free agents that are able to contribute to this team.
The ability to use draft picks to get a player like Haynesworth or Ochocinco should also be taken into consideration.

I'm sure you'll find teams that have done a better job but not many.

I have high hopes for all patriot players.. But until Spikes and Chung can stay healthy, we shouldn't add them into anything..

 

[Clonamery]

I have high hopes for all patriot players.. But until Spikes and Chung can stay healthy, we shouldn't add them into anything..

So is it injuries or drafting?

 

[mcsully]

So is it injuries or drafting?

This makes little or no sense.. YOu can have all the talent in the world, unless you are out on the field contributing, you aren't helping the team..


I'm sorry to say this but our drafting has been below average at best most years (except '10)

 

[patsfaninpittsburgh]

We can tap dance around the subject but less than 3 years later, we've dropped a lot of draft picks... HIgh ones..

Bottom line


Our scouting department is not good..

Bottom line

You are not that bright.

Let's dispence with the stupid proclamations. Here's the bottom line

The draft is a crap shoot. 50% success on the 1st round is considered good. The later rounds drop off from there.

The whole idea of the BB strategy is to recognize this and get more chances. My guess is a whole lot of posters here would actually think a team that hits on 3 of 3 picks is better than a team that hits on 4 of 6 for the same period.

Likewise, my guess is Ted Williams sucked as a hitter in 1941 because he missed on 6 of every ten at bats.

More "misses" can be expected when a team has more high picks because there is more competition at various points. Would Tate still be here? He was drafted as an extra 3rd round but was beaten out by Price (extra pick) and Hernandez (extra pick)

Player acqusition has to taken in total. Getting a Haynesworth for a 2080 50th round pick may mean Brace is gone. If Haynesworth is a success, who cares? Only the dysfunctional thinkers referenced above. The draft is simply one component of player acquisition.

BB will trade a pick if he doesn't like the players. Can he always trade?

A bust has to be evaluated for performance and like players drafted afterward.

 

[Ochmed Jones]

I think there is some truth to our coaching staff's inability to coach up talent.

I have often wrote thatyear after year we list all the 3-4 DE/OLB conversion types available in the draft and year after year we watch BB pass on them and we are dumbfounded as to why.

I have suggested that BB is not entirely convinced our coaching staff can coach up a young prospect at that position. Hard to prove since except for Slow as paint drying Cunningham, we have not drafted any DE/OLB conversion types highly.

The other part of this is how hard is a kid willing to work to become great once he is drafted? This is where I think Merriweather and Butler flamed out. I saw them at a Miami game a few years ago laughing and giggling on the sidelines while we were being beat like a dog on the field. They just did not care. Then I hear guys like Harrison say that of all the secondary guys on the team, only Sanders was a film junkie.

One reason BB finds success with UDFA's and young throwaways from other teams is that they will do whatever it takes, even run through a brick wall to make and stay on a team. BB finds a hint of talent and a willing soul and he can ususally make that player something respectable. CB Arrington is a great example of this.

It is also why BB can bring in veterans that have not won previously and they fit right in, they want to do whatever it takes to win.

At the end of the day drafting and development is a team's lifeblood, but no one can measure the heart and desire of a draftee. That is where I see the disconnect.

 

[patsfan13]

Drafting into a team that is winning 12 reg season games or more is not easy, tougher roster to make. The comments about development and effort are very good. We have players like T Brown, Slater, Fletcher, who will work hard and do whatever to help the team, Butler and Meriweather and Butler looked like they had the POTENTIAL to justify their draft position their first year. They didn't put in the work required and didn't develop and as a result lost their roster sport.

 

[Shockt327]

This makes little or no sense.. YOu can have all the talent in the world, unless you are out on the field contributing, you aren't helping the team..


I'm sorry to say this but our drafting has been below average at best most years (except '10)

This is ridiculous. Which teams do you consider to be "average" then? Cause even the downright excellent teams over the past decade: like Balt, SD, Indy, or PIT have been on par with, or worse than, NE.

Really, people need to stop hinging their entire draft outlook on who it was that got passed over.

*OMG we could've had Clay Matthews?!? Ugh, whole draft is a bust!*

 

[bagwell368]

I think there is some truth to our coaching staff's inability to coach up talent.

I have often wrote thatyear after year we list all the 3-4 DE/OLB conversion types available in the draft and year after year we watch BB pass on them and we are dumbfounded as to why.

How about you study the fate in the NFL of every player projected in the draft to be a 3-4 OLB that played 4-3 DE in college that was drafted in the top 50 since the 2005 draft.

I'm fairly confident that after you that you may change your mind to - geez this is a tough transition just about anywhere and with any staff.

BB knows what he wants. His first big FA move was for Colvin. IMO the single worst injury in Pats history since BB signed on is Colvin being hurt, and all that money tied up in a guy that didn't play for a time, and when he came back was never the same. IMO one and perhaps two SB titles went out the window as a result. BB is very aware of what he wants at OLB in a 3-4. His failure with that x Raven dog Adalius may have been the biggest single push to moving him to this new attack 4-3 - the near impossibility at getting or developing a Colvin/Vrabel type. Some things you can't coach.

 

[Deus Irae]

Drafting into a team that is winning 12 reg season games or more is not easy, tougher roster to make. The comments about development and effort are very good. We have players like T Brown, Slater, Fletcher, who will work hard and do whatever to help the team, Butler and Meriweather and Butler looked like they had the POTENTIAL to justify their draft position their first year. They didn't put in the work required and didn't develop and as a result lost their roster sport.

The Patriots were an 11 game winner, with their backup QB, in 2008. Despite that, the team put a bunch of players from the 2009 draft on the team. The problem is talent, not numbers. Numbers have only been a true bar with the 2007 team, and a good part of that was because the 2007 draft had so little talent.

Keeping all other things even: had the team just drafted Sean Smith (my binkie) instead of Darius Butler, and Mike Wallace instead of Tate (I was ok with Tate as a flyer pick, but that's a huge swing with just one pick), the team would be much better off, and it has nothing to do with the difficulty of making the roster in any particular year.

This year has proven this, in spades. A 14-2 team has just replaced

Warren
Warren
TBC
Butler
Sanders
Meriweather
Moore
Wilhite
Page

just on the defensive side of the ball. That's 9 players, 8 of whom played significant roles during their time last year, and one who'd have been a starter had he not missed the entire season, that have been replaced. That shows two things, unless you think Belichick has lost his mind:

1.) Those who were saying that the defense wasn't as good as its numbers, and that the coaching was covering for a lack of talent, were right.

2.) There's plenty of room for players, even on a 14 win team.

 

[ralmat55]

Good point about coaching. When the Patriots were winning Super Bowls and still managing to get younger by developing late round draft picks and integrating them into great teams , the assistant coaches included not only Weis, Crennel, Mangini and mcDaniels who all have been head coaches but also Jeff Davidson, Brian Daboll, and Rob Ryan who all have been coordinators since leaving. That's a lot of coaching talent. What's left; Dante, Pepper and a bunch of pro level graduate assistants. I understand Belichick wanting to develop his own coaches, but there is a learning curb.

 

[mcsully]

Bottom line

You are not that bright.


Let's dispence with the stupid proclamations. Here's the bottom line

You're an idiot by the pure homer goggles u wear.. my 8 year old nephew knows that with more draft picks, you have more failures. Maybe you can come over and he'll show you how to do his math homework.. Seriously piss poor way of starting out a post.

& i know people don't want to hear this but the Pats are a middle of the road team when it comes to drafting.

The draft is a crap shoot. 50% success on the 1st round is considered good. The later rounds drop off from there.


The whole idea of the BB strategy is to recognize this and get more chances. My guess is a whole lot of posters here would actually think a team that hits on 3 of 3 picks is better than a team that hits on 4 of 6 for the same period.

Likewise, my guess is Ted Williams sucked as a hitter in 1941 because he missed on 6 of every ten at bats.

More "misses" can be expected when a team has more high picks because there is more competition at various points. Would Tate still be here? He was drafted as an extra 3rd round but was beaten out by Price (extra pick) and Hernandez (extra pick)

The Ted Williams analogy is ridiculous.. Do I need to explain base lines for you? pst..


By your own argument, BB has more chances to draft more players. Do you think he's done a great job of drafting since 07? I don't..

So out of the 50 + picks, we have 7 starters and a couple more that contribute on special teams. in 5 drafts you are happy we walked away with 7 starters? Yikes.. I'm not..

Competition? You bring this up. and you are right, its great to have but when undrafted free agents beat our 2nd and 3rd rounders, you have to wonder why we drafted these guys..
Our scouting department for the college ranks is below par.