Another Theory on Patriot Draft Performance

[DropKickFlutie]

We can tap dance around the subject but less than 3 years later, we've dropped a lot of draft picks... HIgh ones..

Bottom line

Our scouting department is not good..

This thread is about WHY it's not so simple to just blame "scouting". You bring in players at a certain level, but a lot of coaching and development takes place to take a rookie to NFL starter level. The argument is that a big component of whether a player makes it or not is how strong the extended coaching staff is to coach up and develop our own guys. Our strategy of trading down in drafts and going for volume doesn't work if they don't improve once they get here. So, even though the Pats cut many players they drafted recently, it may be more complicated than just a scouting issue.

 

[ralmat55]

Even the staunchest Belichick supporter has to admit the 06-08 drafts were pretty awful with basically only Jerod Mayo and Matthew Slater to show for them. It is also disappointing that of the 6 2nd and 3rd round picks in the 09 draft only half remain and the jury is still out on Ron Brace. But, SOMEHOW the Patriots still have a strong roster which we all hope will contend for a championship this season.

My observation on the Patriots drafting is they've overvalued "value". "Value" can't play a position or cover a kick. The draft is about finding players, and it has seemed, at times, as if that pursuit is secondary to achieving proper value for every selection. The best "value" is a player who can actually play in the NFL and contribute to winning football games for your team.

 

[jBru]

Cutting many highly drafted players is not a sure indicator of poor drafting.

Given our repeatedly demonstrated ability to pick up quality veterans at reasonable prices, the goal of a high draft pick is to find an EXCEPTIONAL player, one who substantially out performs the non-star veteran talent available in free agency and through trades.

The biggest difference between BB and the rest of the NFL is that he is willing to cut highly drafted players who fail to meet this expectation. When the other teams cut highly drafted players early, they are almost always unqualified busts. How often do you see other teams cutting a player like Meriweather? Recent two time pro bowler, healthy, first round draft pick, playing for $1.65M? I'm not sure any other franchise has the guts to do this. So they keep their Meriweathers on the roster (at the cost of cap and roster space that could have been used on other talent).

 

[DropKickFlutie]

Cutting many highly drafted players is not a sure indicator of poor drafting.

Absolutely, which is the argument of this thread. There is a big gap between a rookie and a NFL starter, and solid coaching and development needs to take place even if you're an amazing drafter.


In reply to Kenneth one post above, I agree the idea of draft value may need to change. The Patriots did very well looking for "value" in free agency 8 to 10 years ago, but then every team's salary cap limit numbers went up so much that there wasn't much value in free agency available for the past half decade. I think Belichick knows the higher picks are worth more now with the lower rookie salaries, which is why he got that pick for Seymour.

 

[plk]

The best "value" is a player who can actually play in the NFL and contribute to winning football games for your team.

You are thinking in terms of the unstated and incorrect assumption that there is some way to know which "players can actually play in the NFL and contribute to winning football games for your team."

There is no known way to do that. Drafting would be much simpler if there were some way to do that. Drafting is attempting to predict the future and that is always a very uncertain process. All you can do is assign a probability that a "player can actually play in the NFL and contribute to winning football games for your team."

And, most importantly, you can try to avoid mistakes and maximize your chances which is where "value" comes in.

 

[plk]

There is a big gap between a rookie and a NFL starter, and solid coaching and development needs to take place even if you're an amazing drafter.

Eugene Wilson, Laurence Maroney, Darius Butler, and Brandon Meriweather all looked quite promising initially. You seem to need in players the "luck" that they have in them whatever it is that it takes for them to develop. Also, the "luck" of avoiding injuries that set back their careers.

 

[cmasspatsfan]

I thought the Patriots had a list of players from top to bottom based on their own criteria and doesnt, check that, never jives with the Mel Kipers of the worlds list. Then they pick the best player thats available on their list. I think value comes into the picture when theres a guy like McCourtey who may be lower on most boards and the Pats will trade their pick for a lower 1st and a pick in another round and get the player they wanted anyways.
I dont think if a guy was number one on their board and he was available and there was a chance he would go to one of the teams drafting right after them that they would try and trade down to pick up an extra pick and lose that player. They would jump on that guy.

 

[Shelterdog]

Eugene Wilson, Laurence Maroney, Darius Butler, and Brandon Meriwether all looked quite promising initially. You seem to need in players the "luck" that they have in them whatever it is that it takes for them to develop. Also, the "luck" of avoiding injuries that set back their careers.

I'll contradict this a little bit--while the other guys were ok, BMW couldn't get on the field much until late his rookie year. He did look pretty good in 08 and very good in 09.

Anyhow, picking players who can take coaching, who can mature physically, and who will work hard after making the NFL is part of the talent evaluation process as well. It's not luck but it is why drafting is so hard for every team.

 

[SanAngeloState]

part of the problem is that they've gone away from drafting guys who are good players and "love football".

Butler is just a very athletic guy but too timid to tackle well and has poor instincts for when to turn...how was this not obious in college? Brace is just big and slow and soft. Again, should have been obvious in an interview that he doesn't have much killer instinct. Merriweather was undisciplined in college...why would he be disciplined here?

Compare this to a guy like Gronkowski or even Price...at least they live and die football.

 

[jBru]

In reply to Kenneth one post above, I agree the idea of draft value may need to change. The Patriots did very well looking for "value" in free agency 8 to 10 years ago, but then every team's salary cap limit numbers went up so much that there wasn't much value in free agency available for the past half decade. I think Belichick knows the higher picks are worth more now with the lower rookie salaries, which is why he got that pick for Seymour.

Ten years ago, there were still (shockingly) many front offices that didn't fully appreciate the importance of the salary cap (that it gives an advantage to teams that consistently UNDERPAY for talent). This gave BB a significant edge.

In 2011, this is no longer the case. The only teams that aren't focused on salary cap implications, are the ones which have no intention of using up their cap (which is much easier now that teams can automatically move unused cap space into future years).

As for the Seymour pick, it wasn't high enough to give us a huge advantage over the old system. If Oakland had given us a top 10 pick or better, then we would have seen a greater improvement.

 

[plk]

Anyhow, picking players who can take coaching, who can mature physically, and who will work hard after making the NFL is part of the talent evaluation process as well. It's not luck but it is why drafting is so hard for every team.

It is probably the most difficult and uncertain part of talent evaluation. I believe predicting a player's personality correctly as he goes from college to the NFL requires a lot of luck.

 

[plk]

Another place that "value" comes in is when a player has fallen in the draft to such an extent that he represents a great bargain where you can get him, e.g. Ryan Mallett, and the Patriots take him even though he is not their most immediate need.

 

[plk]

Butler is just a very athletic guy but too timid to tackle well and has poor instincts for when to turn...how was this not obious in college? Brace is just big and slow and soft. Again, should have been obvious in an interview that he doesn't have much killer instinct. Merriweather was undisciplined in college...why would he be disciplined here?

It is notoriously difficult to predict performance in the NFL based on performance in college.

It is even very difficult to predict success in MLB based on performance in the minors.

I don't feel that I understand why, but it is the case.

 

[plk]

Compare this to a guy like Gronkowski or even Price...at least they live and die football.

Gronkowski had been injured. Except for that he would've been long gone by the time we drafted him.

Price was also injured and only available where we drafted him for that reason.

Drafting injured players is one risk that a team can take. Most players have something suspect, or they would already have been drafted. It's a matter of balancing the positives and negatives. Mostly, a team doesn't get to choose players who just have positives.

 

[DropKickFlutie]

Another place that "value" comes in is when a player has fallen in the draft to such an extent that he represents a great bargain where you can get him, e.g. Ryan Mallett, and the Patriots take him even though he is not their most immediate need.

Let's say the Patriots still draft extremely well and also still find great values every year. Have you ever played those football video games? Let's say a starter needs to rate 80/100 to make the lineup on the Patriots, and they draft well so they end up every year with a few players rated low 70's as rookies (which is good). The problem isn't the drafting per se, but that we have a more difficult time taking these rookies (even if we drafted well) and developing them into good players. After a few years they didn't make the leap, and they get cut bc they aren't worth a bigger non-rookie contract.

 

[plk]

Let's say the Patriots still draft extremely well and also still find great values every year. Have you ever played those football video games?

No, but I certainly agree with your point.

A 53 man roster for a sport with 22 starters and a need for reliable backups because there are a lot of injuries leaves very little room, particularly for a good team, to develop young players.

 

[DropKickFlutie]

This past topic is potentially interesting fodder given the recent threads blasting BB the GM. I would submit that maybe Belichick hasn't gotten worse as a GM, but that his extended coaching staff isn't as good as coaching and developing young players as they were 6+ years ago.