Barking up the Wrong Tree...

[cmasspatsfan]

Kaepernick and Dalton were still in play. and other Teams tried to Trade with the Pats but they already had their obligatory first rounder for 2012. There is a blunder that no one will ever tell us about. But it was none-the-less. Dowling would have lasted a few more picks and if he was nervous we had ammo to move back up from a higher 2nd rounder than we got from the Saints.

He still Drafts like he is afraid to make a mistake but the greatest Coach ever.
DW Toys

Cmon DW, you've been around this team long enough and Im sure you've read Patriot Reign. The Pats have their own board, rated in order of what they look for in a player. You and Mel Kiper and all the dratftniks may like certain players but they may not fit the Pats criteria. They simply pick the highest guy on THEIR board or if they think they can trade down and still get their guy they do that accumulating picks by doing this.
Considering where they finish every year BB's been masterful picking up extra picks and even moving into the first round for another pick some years.
You may not agree with their board or his drafting style but look where its got him. When you have a system thats successful you have to stick to the system. After wallowing in the cellar for years under past regimes I kind of like the current system.

 

[BradyFTW!]

If they franchise him again next year, I believe he goes from "Average of top 5 guards" to "Average of top 5 players".


They're not paying him the 18M or so a year that'll cost.

Pretty sure that's not true. The Seahawks tagged Walter Jones for three consecutive years at one point. For the first year (2002), his salary was $4.9M, and for the second his salary was $5.7M.

Source: http://blog.seattletimes.nwsource.com/seahawks/2009/01/29/seahawks_franch.html

 

[jmt57]

Pretty sure that's not true. The Seahawks tagged Walter Jones for three consecutive years at one point. For the first year (2002), his salary was $4.9M, and for the second his salary was $5.7M.

Source: Seahawks Blog | Seahawks franchise-tag history | Seattle Times Newspaper Blog

I believe you are correct, if I'm not mistaken the "Walter Jones rule" is that a player can only be tagged a maximum of three straight times, and also he gets the greater of either the current price for being tagged at his position (average of top five at the position), or 120% of his previous year's salary.

Bumping a player up to 120% of what he made under the franchise tag designation the previous season becomes extremely expensive and prohibitive.

 

[PatsFan37]

One of the fallacies that I keep seeing is that if either Reed or Sheard turn into the next Clay Matthews, then the Dowling pick was bad. That would be true if Bill had picks 33 and 34.

If either Reed or Sheard are mediocre, the 'draft is a crap-shoot' argument is once again validated. If both are better at their positions than Dowling is at his, the bitter fans are validated.

You can't cherry-pick Clay Matthews or any other proven pass-rusher and use that as an argument that passing on the unproven pass-rusher is a mistake.

OTOH, one of the few arguments I've seen that makes sense is Reiss' statement that they've thrown so many darts at CB, they ought to throw more than one dart (Cunningham) at pass rush. And THIS is where I trust Bill to judge the players available at that time, in the absence of hindsight.

 

[Joker]

You can't cherry-pick Clay Matthews or any other proven pass-rusher and use that as an argument that passing on the unproven pass-rusher is a mistake.

sure you can...in fact, it's become an art form here...:bricks:

 

[plk]

There was an interesting post to Mike Reiss's mailbag which is relevant here.

Digger wrote: In the past five years, 39 OLBs have been chosen in the first two rounds of the draft (2006-2010). Of those selections, only Lamarr Woodley, Tamba Hali and Clay Matthews have been significantly more productive than the player the Patriots are trying to replace (Tully Banta-Cain). That represents a 7 percent success rate, in my view. Of course not all play the same system, but a quick look of previous drafts find a graveyard of Jerry Hughes, Clint Sintim, Larry English, Bobby Carpenter, Robert Ayers, Everette Brown, Jarvis Moss, Aaron Maybin, etc.

New England Patriots draft mailbag: Measuring success of draft class starts with Ras-I Dowling - ESPN Boston

 

[plk]

OTOH, one of the few arguments I've seen that makes sense is Reiss' statement that they've thrown so many darts at CB, they ought to throw more than one dart (Cunningham) at pass rush. And THIS is where I trust Bill to judge the players available at that time, in the absence of hindsight.

I like the "drafting is like throwing darts at a board" analogy, and let me try to extend it. Each draft pick is like throwing a dart at a target, but the targets are not all the same. Some seem to have a good-sized center spot; some have a really tiny center spot. I think BB wants to throw his darts when the center spot is as large as possible, and I also trust his judgment to figure this out.

 

[ivanvamp]

If BB likes to shock the world and prove is coaching prowess, he should kick the tires on Gholston.

I think the Pats should bring Gholston in, not so that BB can improve his resume, but because, as you pointed out, Gholston has a ton of athleticism and is, theoretically anyway, a pass rusher that could work in a 3-4 scheme.

Obviously (duh!) he has been a major bust in the NFL so far. Bringing him in will cost the Pats virtually nothing. It's certainly worth a shot. Because if he could even be half of what was expected out of him, he would be a very helpful player.

 

[Synovia]

I believe you are correct, if I'm not mistaken the "Walter Jones rule" is that a player can only be tagged a maximum of three straight times, and also he gets the greater of either the current price for being tagged at his position (average of top five at the position), or 120% of his previous year's salary.

Bumping a player up to 120% of what he made under the franchise tag designation the previous season becomes extremely expensive and prohibitive.

Again, no. As I have cited, the 3rd tag is at 144% of the player's salary, or the highest franchised position, whatever is higher. This is actually called the Walter Jones rule, to prevent situations like his. It was put in after Jones being tagged.

 

[Synovia]

OTOH, one of the few arguments I've seen that makes sense is Reiss' statement that they've thrown so many darts at CB, they ought to throw more than one dart (Cunningham) at pass rush. And THIS is where I trust Bill to judge the players available at that time, in the absence of hindsight.

What people don't understand is they HAVE thrown darts at pass rusher. (Cunningham, Crable, Redd, etc). They just haven't worked out.

 

[VJCPatriot]

Peter King is not my favorite but he is close to many organizations. Truth be told, BB made a big mistake at #28. The Saints will be a top Team in 2011. If he held off until #33 he could have had a higher second round pick and a higher first round pick in 2011. He played his cards wrong or is full of crap about value. He was going to take Dowling no matter what. I predict the big news is he will be playing Safety sooner than later. King chastised BB for taking a CB. I think Mr. King is wrong. He also could not understand the depth that could not produce a OLB or DE pass rusher of value at #28.

So according to you, the Pats made a huge mistake because they didn't draft Mark Ingram. I'll bet you hands down that Shane Vereen + the 1st round pick they got from the Saints will be substantially more valuable than Ingram alone.

The Saints were already a top team in 2010 BTW. They finished 11-5 and were in the PLAYOFFS. Their RB injuries late in the season derailed any chance they had in the postseason. Why would it be surprising to ANYONE that they'll be a top team again in 2011?

Kaepernick and Dalton were still in play. and other Teams tried to Trade with the Pats but they already had their obligatory first rounder for 2012. There is a blunder that no one will ever tell us about. But it was none-the-less. Dowling would have lasted a few more picks and if he was nervous we had ammo to move back up from a higher 2nd rounder than we got from the Saints.

He still Drafts like he is afraid to make a mistake but the greatest Coach ever.
DW Toys

Did you even watch the draft coverage? NO TEAM was willing to offer a 2nd in this year's draft plus a future pick for #33. That's the reason WHY they didn't trade down. Maybe there's a chance Dowling makes it past Buffalo who took a CB the VERY NEXT pick at #34, but there's no way he slides out of round 2. Outside of Dowling himself, FIVE other DBs were taken in Round 2 alone. And furthermore if the Dowling pick FIXES the issues in the secondary, how is that a 'blunder'? Your conclusions are based on misinformation.

 

[ivanvamp]

What people don't understand is they HAVE thrown darts at pass rusher. (Cunningham, Crable, Redd, etc). They just haven't worked out.

They've also tried this via trade or free agency (Thomas, Burgess, Colvin, etc.). Those haven't produced a dynamic pass rusher either (though Thomas was solid in his first season, and Colvin was a pretty good overall LB).

 

[Don Kipines]

If BB himself would not have said this was the Best Draft for from 7 defensive guys he had seen in years, and then walked away, it would have made sense. It was a crappy Draft. I like the Mallet move for a future first or high pick and Cannon who was rated in the first round by some. I like Dowling and had us taking him but later. The rest don't put starch in my shorts.
So we got a development LT, a bigger Danny Woodhead, a power running back some said should have stayed in school another year, a TE/LS (almost makes sense) and two definite maybe/give-ups. We got a second from Oakland...o.k. I guess...... and a high first rounder if we would have waited would have been higher.

Peter King is not my favorite but he is close to many organizations. Truth be told, BB made a big mistake at #28. The Saints will be a top Team in 2011. If he held off until #33 he could have had a higher second round pick and a higher first round pick in 2011. He played his cards wrong or is full of crap
about value. He was going to take Dowling no matter what. I predict the big news is he will be playing Safety sooner than later. King chastised BB for taking a CB. I think Mr. King is wrong. He also could not understand the depth that could not produce a OLB or DE pass rusher of value at #28.

Kaepernick and Dalton were still in play. and other Teams tried to Trade with the Pats but they already had their obligatory first rounder for 2012. There is a blunder that no one will ever tell us about. But it was none-the-less. Dowling would have lasted a few more picks and if he was nervous we had ammo to move back up from a higher 2nd rounder than we got from the Saints.

He still Drafts like he is afraid to make a mistake but the greatest Coach ever.
DW Toys

They didn't have any offers for a second-rounder with that 33rd pick. They had one for a third plus a 2012 third, which is a pretty good deal. But there was no second- round offer. They certainly didn't have any other shot at a future #1.

I get that people are upset that they didn't pick a pass-rusher, but it's craziness to pass over guys you feel good about to take players at need positions. Think of Jacksonville all these years picking defensive ends and passing up good players (like Josh Freeman) to plug supposed holes on their roster. Or Arizona picking Levi Brown over Adrian Peterson because they already "had" a running back (Edgerrin James). You pick players you feel sure about and don't ever reach for need, especially high. The Ravens and Ozzie Newsome have a system: pick best player available high up and draft for needs in the sixth and seventh rounds. That makes the most sense: you don't miss out on great players as much and you still have a shot at plugging your holes.

The Pats started with three picks in the top 33 and came out with two elite talents, a starting running back and a first-round pick: four players. The Saints started with three picks (including next year's #1) and came away with two players. Obviously the prospect of Ingram turning into Emmitt Smith is scary. But 27 other teams passed on Ingram, too. And the way the math works in this deal, Ingram will have to be a LOT better than Vereen to make this a bad deal for New England. You can quibble with the players they picked (none of us knows if Dowling was a better pick than, say, Aaron Williams) but the trade strategy is pretty hard to criticize. Over and over again, the Pats end up with more top draft choices and therefore have a much wider margin of error-- how can we complain about this?

 

[Shelterdog]

They didn't have any offers for a second-rounder with that 33rd pick. They had one for a third plus a 2012 third, which is a pretty good deal. But there was no second- round offer. They certainly didn't have any other shot at a future #1.

The offer that's being reported was the 49ers 2d round pick (45), the 49ers 2011 third round pick (76) and the 49ers 2012 third round pick, with the Pats insisting they'd only do the pick for a 2011 second, 2011 third, and 2012 second. Tennessee Titans like what they have in rookie quarterback Jake Locker - Peter King - SI.com


The Pats were really holding the line for a ton of value (the draft value chart has 33 at 580 points and the 2011 49ers picks at 665, so even without any 2012 pick it would make some sense for the Pats to do the deal); that suggests that either the Pats really liked talent at 33 relative to later in the draft, they felt compelled to never back down from their initial position because they wanted to show they were tough/honest negotiatiors, or both.

 

[DW Toys]

So according to you, the Pats made a huge mistake because they didn't draft Mark Ingram. I'll bet you hands down that Shane Vereen + the 1st round pick they got from the Saints will be substantially more valuable than Ingram alone.

The Saints were already a top team in 2010 BTW. They finished 11-5 and were in the PLAYOFFS. Their RB injuries late in the season derailed any chance they had in the postseason. Why would it be surprising to ANYONE that they'll be a top team again in 2011?



Did you even watch the draft coverage? NO TEAM was willing to offer a 2nd in this year's draft plus a future pick for #33. That's the reason WHY they didn't trade down. Maybe there's a chance Dowling makes it past Buffalo who took a CB the VERY NEXT pick at #34, but there's no way he slides out of round 2. Outside of Dowling himself, FIVE other DBs were taken in Round 2 alone. And furthermore if the Dowling pick FIXES the issues in the secondary, how is that a 'blunder'? Your conclusions are based on misinformation.

Woa...back off cowboy. I said I like the Dowling pick. I actually had him in my mock. I thought #33 was a tad too high. I had him later. I see him as a hybrid Safety though flopping back and forth.

I said I don't know why everyone is so high on this Vereen kid. He is a taller Woodhead. It wasted two picks on RBs because Ridley makes up for the skill set Vereen does not have. With Ingram we Draft in the first next year because we sell #33 to a Team with bigger needs and will be a higher pick. We wind up using the Ridley pick for other things.

Yes I am saying it right now. Ingram will have a better season than Vereen and Ridley combined. Torture me for it at the end of the season if I am wrong. I hope that I am extremely wrong! So Ingram and perhaps the Niners pick will be better I say. We could have went up and got Dowling with #60 and the fourth we gave away to Al. Or better yet a pass rusher like Sheard or Reed who I understand the Pats were hoping for at #60.
DW Toys

 

[Don Kipines]

Woa...back off cowboy. I said I like the Dowling pick. I actually had him in my mock. I thought #33 was a tad too high. I had him later. I see him as a hybrid Safety though flopping back and forth.

I said I don't know why everyone is so high on this Vereen kid. He is a taller Woodhead. It wasted two picks on RBs because Ridley makes up for the skill set Vereen does not have. With Ingram we Draft in the first next year because we sell #33 to a Team with bigger needs and will be a higher pick. We wind up using the Ridley pick for other things.

Yes I am saying it right now. Ingram will have a better season than Vereen and Ridley combined. Torture me for it at the end of the season if I am wrong. I hope that I am extremely wrong! So Ingram and perhaps the Niners pick will be better I say. We could have went up and got Dowling with #60 and the fourth we gave away to Al. Or better yet a pass rusher like Sheard or Reed who I understand the Pats were hoping for at #60.
DW Toys

A couple of things:

1) A taller Woodhead would be a pretty good player, well worth drafting in the second round. A guy with that same skillset who is a little bit bigger and can hold up in pass protection a little more is a very valuable player. Just because we got Woodhead for nothing doesn't mean it's easy to get guys who average five and a half yards a carry and can run routes like a wide receiver.

2) I seriously doubt we could have gotten Dowling for #60 plus a fourth. A very generous take for that trade would be pick #56 or #55. You really think Dowling is there 20 picks later?

3) You still seem to be saying that we could have gotten a first-rounder for that #33 pick by selling to a worse team with "bigger needs" whose future pick would be a "higher pick." But there's no evidence that anyone was willing to give up a #1 next year. Certainly nobody was willing to give up a current-year high pick and a future high pick for #33 -- nothing like the Saints trade.

 

[Oswlek]

People need to pull their heads out of the their arses with regard to Vereen. When did he get a rep for being a shrimp? The guy weights 210 pounds.

That's 15 more than Woodhead.

About 10 lbs more than Jamaal Charles, Chris Johnson, Ahmad Bradshaw and Jahvid Best.

The same weight as Ray Rice, Addai and Brown from Indy and LeSean McCoy.

Within a handful of lbs from LdT and BJGE.

When did Vereen become Darren Sproles again?

 

[AzPatsFan]

People need to pull their heads out of the their arses with regard to Vereen. When did he get a rep for being a shrimp? The guy weights 210 pounds.

That's 15 more than Woodhead.

About 10 lbs more than Jamaal Charles, Chris Johnson, Ahmad Bradshaw and Jahvid Best.

The same weight as Ray Rice, Addai and Brown from Indy and LeSean McCoy.

Within a handful of lbs from LdT and BJGE.

When did Vereen become Darren Sproles again?

Good point. The Patriots Front Office had the pick of the litter, Mikel or Danny, and freely chose Verene, so it was not a case of having to "settle" for him.

The more I see of Ridley the more I like him too.

 

[Oswlek]

Good point. The Patriots Front Office had the pick of the litter, Mikel or Danny, and freely chose Verene, so it was not a case of having to "settle" for him.

The more I see of Ridley the more I like him too.

Agreed. NE went into the draft having one RB who took meaningful snaps in 2010 on the roster, and a bad taste of too much age at the position and acted accordingly.

Not only do both of these guys look like quality additions, they are also two of the more "Patriot ready" backs, being solid receivers and blockers as well as runners.

The amount of complaining about those two picks is ridiculous.

 

[VJCPatriot]

Yes I am saying it right now. Ingram will have a better season than Vereen and Ridley combined. Torture me for it at the end of the season if I am wrong. I hope that I am extremely wrong! So Ingram and perhaps the Niners pick will be better I say. We could have went up and got Dowling with #60 and the fourth we gave away to Al. Or better yet a pass rusher like Sheard or Reed who I understand the Pats were hoping for at #60.
DW Toys

So to frame your contention accurately, your main objection is passing on Ingram at pick #28 vs taking Vereen at #56, getting a 2012 1st, and taking Ridley at #73?

Ingram's limitations in terms of speed are known. He is not a burner, he's not going to break a lot of long runs. He ran a 4.62 at the combine. Even putting aside the questions about the health of his knee, Ingram is never going to be a homerun threat at RB. His upside would be Deuce McAllister at best. That's not necessarily a bad thing, it's pretty good. But I can't see how it is a 'blunder' to pass on a guy with limited upside who also has injury questionmarks.

Compare to Shane Vereen whose versatility and skillset compares favorably to Ray Rice.

I don't know about you, but I'd rather have the Ray Rice clone for the Patriots offense. When you have a QB as talented as Tom Brady, you want the defense to always be guessing and the pass to be an ever-present option for the halfback coming out of the backfield. Vereen also weighed in at 5'10 and 210 lbs at the Combine. In comparison Ingram weighed in at 5'9 215 lbs, an inch SHORTER and a scant 5 lbs heavier. Vereen is a substantially different back than Danny Woodhead. Unless you really feel that Ray Rice = Woodhead. And if you did there are very few posters here who would agree with that sentiment.

Where does Ridley enter the discussion? He's not a part of the trade down deal with the Saints. Considering his skillset, Ridley's upside is likely a Mike Alstott type. A goal line back who can get the toughest yards on 3rd short/4th short and pound it into the endzone. It's debateable whether Ingram would be a better GL back than Ridly or Alstott. What's not debateable is that a THIRD round pick has substantially LESS value than a 1st round pick, even a future 1st round pick, which is the bounty that the Pats picked up for passing on Ingram.

You don't have to like the Vereen or Ridley picks. But the rationale behind those picks is sound considering the skillset of the players and the benefits to be gained by deferring for an extra 1st next year. Even conceding that the Saints may not pick all that high in next year's draft, such picks have turned into players such as Vince Wilfork. When it comes to the Draft, the benefits of patience often outweigh those of impulse.