38 or (60 plus 74)

[mgteich]

Everyone agrees that trades depend on what is available at the time of the pick. Personally, I think it extremely likely that thre will be a top OL or OLB or even other palyer that the patriots might covet at 38. In addition, this trade would gives us more flexibility is using other earlier picks.

FOUR STUDS
17
28
33
38

We would still have plenty of additional picks available for further upgrades. After all, we would still have picks in 3rd, 4th, 5th and 6th rounds.

 

[MaineMan]

Everyone agrees that trades depend on what is available at the time of the pick. Personally, I think it extremely likely that thre will be a top OL or OLB or even other palyer that the patriots might covet at 38. In addition, this trade would gives us more flexibility is using other earlier picks.

FOUR STUDS
17
28
33
38

We would still have plenty of additional picks available for further upgrades. After all, we would still have picks in 3rd, 4th, 5th and 6th rounds.

I think I understand where you're going with this, but I have a hard time seeing the Cards being willing to trade down 20+ spots in the 2nd, even for the extra two picks.

 

[patchick]

Well, the big question is what kind of "stud" is likely to be available at #38. Let's make it concrete (albeit hypothetical). The choice is likely to be something like...

ONE of:
Danny Watkins
Justin Houston
Stefen Wisniewski
Allen Bailey
Aaron Williams
Ryan Williams
Sam Acho
Leonard Hankerson

vs.

TWO of:
Ben Ijalana
Ras-I Dowling
Jabaal Sheard
Randall Cobb
Clint Boling
Quinton Carter
Edmund Gates
Kenrick Ellis
Shane Vereen
Edmond Gates
John Moffitt

 

[mgteich]

I agree with your analysis. However, I might move Boling to the first group (I don't think that he will be there at 60) and add Carpenter, Fusco and Kirkpatrick to the second list.

CASE ONE - NO GUARD DRAFTED BY US THROUGH PICK 33
Now, I definitely want to choose between Watkins and Wisnewski.

CASE TWO - A GUARD HAS ALREADY BEEN PICKED, BUT ONLY ONE FRONT 7 PLAYER
Now I want to move up for a linebacker.

CASE THREE - A GUARD AND TWO FRONT SEVEN PLAYERS HAVE BEEN PICKED BT 33
I still might want Watkins or Wisnewski, but the need is less.

BOTTOM LINE
IMHO, I would like four of the five needs filled early: 2 front seven defensive players, 2 interior linemen, and an OT. I could see passing on the OT, especailly if Light is extended. After all, Dante could be fine with Kaczur or LeVoir starting or t least competing for a starting spot with a mid-level veteran free agent.

I suppose that if safety is now viewed as a critical need, we would be less likey to trade up.

Well, the big question is what kind of "stud" is likely to be available at #38. Let's make it concrete (albeit hypothetical). The choice is likely to be something like...

ONE of:
Danny Watkins
Justin Houston
Stefen Wisniewski
Allen Bailey
Aaron Williams
Ryan Williams
Sam Acho
Leonard Hankerson

vs.

TWO of:
Ben Ijalana
Ras-I Dowling
Jabaal Sheard
Randall Cobb
Clint Boling
Quinton Carter
Edmund Gates
Kenrick Ellis
Shane Vereen
Edmond Gates
John Moffitt

 

[patfanken]

having the 33rd pick is a huge advantage for the Pats. They SHOULD get more than fair value for that pick. For example: Say one of the QB poor teams didn't want to take a chance on a Ryan Mallet in round one. They would pay dearly for the opportunity to get him at the top of the 2nd. Also because they Pats will have a full day to field offers the deals will likely get better and better as team try and bid for the pick

I don't know what will happen come April, but I'm fairly certain that when the first round of the draft is completed, the Pats will still have the #33 pick....and it will be up for sale.

 

[The Gr8est]

Well, the big question is what kind of "stud" is likely to be available at #38. Let's make it concrete (albeit hypothetical). The choice is likely to be something like...

ONE of:
Danny Watkins
Justin Houston
Stefen Wisniewski
Allen Bailey
Aaron Williams
Ryan Williams
Sam Acho
Leonard Hankerson

vs.

TWO of:
Ben Ijalana
Ras-I Dowling
Jabaal Sheard
Randall Cobb
Clint Boling
Quinton Carter
Edmund Gates
Kenrick Ellis
Shane Vereen
Edmond Gates
John Moffitt

From the names you I listed I would much rather have two from column B.

Say, instead of Danny Watkins, I would much prefer Randall Cobb and Ben Ijalana, and I can come up with several other pairs. It would take someone slipping unexpectedly for me to prefer option "A".

 

[mgteich]

I think that many posters put too much of a premium on the stupidity of other GM's. If they want to reach for a QB, they would just as likely to trade for 32 as for 33. Having a night to think about it is greatly over-rated.

having the 33rd pick is a huge advantage for the Pats. They SHOULD get more than fair value for that pick. For example: Say one of the QB poor teams didn't want to take a chance on a Ryan Mallet in round one. They would pay dearly for the opportunity to get him at the top of the 2nd. Also because they Pats will have a full day to field offers the deals will likely get better and better as team try and bid for the pick

I don't know what will happen come April, but I'm fairly certain that when the first round of the draft is completed, the Pats will still have the #33 pick....and it will be up for sale.

 

[The Gr8est]

I think that many posters put too much of a premium on the stupidity of other GM's. If they want to reach for a QB, they would just as likely to trade for 32 as for 33. Having a night to think about it is greatly over-rated.

Once teams have had a break to reset their boards I DO think that #33 will be at a premium. It isn't stupidity that I am counting on, it is executives who need to make a splash now to keep their jobs and can't resist an impulse buy.

BB's job security gives him a huge advantage there as he is always considering the balance between short term and long term gain.

If picking player "A" is better for your team in the long run but player "B" will have a more immediate impact, far too many GMs will opt for player "B", and BB will be there to help them out; for a price of course..

 

[ctpatsfan77]

Once teams have had a break to reset their boards I DO think that #33 will be at a premium. It isn't stupidity that I am counting on, it is executives who need to make a splash now to keep their jobs and can't resist an impulse buy.

That's exactly how the Pats GOT #33 in the first place.

 

[patchick]

I think that many posters put too much of a premium on the stupidity of other GM's. If they want to reach for a QB, they would just as likely to trade for 32 as for 33. Having a night to think about it is greatly over-rated.

Perhaps GMs "having a night to think about it" is the wrong framing. Instead, let's consider the impact of Belichick having a whole night, rather than just 10 minutes, to field offers, play teams off of one another, make 'em sweat, etc. I think that could definitely affect the value realized from a trade.

 

[patchick]

CASE ONE - NO GUARD DRAFTED BY US THROUGH PICK 33
Now, I definitely want to choose between Watkins and Wisnewski.

CASE TWO - A GUARD HAS ALREADY BEEN PICKED, BUT ONLY ONE FRONT 7 PLAYER
Now I want to move up for a linebacker.

CASE THREE - A GUARD AND TWO FRONT SEVEN PLAYERS HAVE BEEN PICKED BT 33
I still might want Watkins or Wisnewski, but the need is less.

BOTTOM LINE
IMHO, I would like four of the five needs filled early: 2 front seven defensive players, 2 interior linemen, and an OT. I could see passing on the OT, especailly if Light is extended. After all, Dante could be fine with Kaczur or LeVoir starting or t least competing for a starting spot with a mid-level veteran free agent.

I like your flow chart approach, but I view the options a little differently based on how the talent is distributed in this draft. I see little chance of drafting a starting-caliber DE, DT or OT much below #33, but good prospects for a starting OG with a more modest trade up from #60 (e.g. using #92), and then a promising developmental C at #74.

 

[mgteich]

I think that we are general agreement, but checking always good.
=========================================================
PICKS THROUGH 33
We need to get our front seven starting quality players here or not at all.
If we judge that we need a starting quality OT, then it is here or not at all.

I think that I allow for the possibility that Belichick will draft other thatn 2 front seven players and an OT. In this event, I think that an OG might be considered. In the end, if Light is extended, I think that we might not draft a backup OT this year.
==========================================================
PICKS AFTER 33
I think that we agree on the need for a starting quality OG and a developmental center. In my analysis, I add the possibility that it worthwhile getting one of the LB's on your list. You say that starting quality will not be available much below 33. Well, 38 is not much lower than 33.

You suggest moving up to 37 (using 92). I suggest moving up to 38 using 74. Obviously we could also offer 92 and 124 and moved up somewhere in between). I think exactly where we trade up depends on who is there at 38, who has already been drafted, and available trade partners.

It seems that we are in agreement that we might need to trade up from 60 to get our strarting quality OG.


QUOTE=patchick;2501301]I like your flow chart approach, but I view the options a little differently based on how the talent is distributed in this draft. I see little chance of drafting a starting-caliber DE, DT or OT much below #33, but good prospects for a starting OG with a more modest trade up from #60 (e.g. using #92), and then a promising developmental C at #74.[/QUOTE]

 

[Seneschal2]

Perhaps GMs "having a night to think about it" is the wrong framing. Instead, let's consider the impact of Belichick having a whole night, rather than just 10 minutes, to field offers, play teams off of one another, make 'em sweat, etc. I think that could definitely affect the value realized from a trade.

There's also the 'bird in a hand" approach. There could be a pre-draft agreement on the table from one team. Or perhaps BB will only field offers (no agreements), allowing suitors to sweeten the pot until the 11th hour.

Could apply to any of the Pats first three picks - 17, 28, 33.

 

[MaineMan]

The more I look at other teams' needs, the more I think the actual 1st round is going to be vastly different than many of us expect. Seems to me entirely possible that Phil Taylor, 3 QBs and only one OT are gone by #17 along with Watt, Wilkerson and Kerrigan, leaving Heyward as the last potentially elite 3-4 DE on the board with the Chargers picking right behind us. IOW, we might not be able to move #17 at all.

 

[Seneschal2]

The more I look at other teams' needs, the more I think the actual 1st round is going to be vastly different than many of us expect. Seems to me entirely possible that Phil Taylor, 3 QBs and only one OT are gone by #17 along with Watt, Wilkerson and Kerrigan, leaving Heyward as the last potentially elite 3-4 DE on the board with the Chargers picking right behind us. IOW, we might not be able to move #17 at all.

I always remember BB saying how the pass rushers, the full-sized D-linemen, and the left OTs go early, along w/ the top rated individuals from the WR/QB/RB/CB group. This draft may not be much different...

 

[Off The Grid]

Once teams have had a break to reset their boards I DO think that #33 will be at a premium. It isn't stupidity that I am counting on, it is executives who need to make a splash now to keep their jobs and can't resist an impulse buy.

BB's job security gives him a huge advantage there as he is always considering the balance between short term and long term gain.

If picking player "A" is better for your team in the long run but player "B" will have a more immediate impact, far too many GMs will opt for player "B", and BB will be there to help them out; for a price of course..

VERY nicely put, sir.

 

[MaineMan]

I always remember BB saying how the pass rushers, the full-sized D-linemen, and the left OTs go early, along w/ the top rated individuals from the WR/QB/RB/CB group. This draft may not be much different...

Actually, I was thinking less "positionally" than wrt specific players. For instance, I could see Dareus, Fairley or both falling out of the top 16 and Quinn falling out of the 1st round altogether.

 

[NewFeep]

Count me "all in" to trade down to 38 if possible. If BB hits on 17,28,33 and 38 like he did last year with McCourty, Gronks, Cunningham and Spikes it would cement a title-seeking missile of a team for the next decade........