The one pitfall of being the #1 seed

[Prefect]

Those stats don't look too bad for the #1 seeds, at least in the AFC. The #1 seed makes it to the Superbowl 17 out of 34 years which looks like pretty good odds to me.

 

[PatsFanSince74]

Every year, sort of "by definition," is going to be different in terms of who plays whom from which seed.

If we look back on the last nine SB's, here's what we see "seed wise."

The AFC has sent four #1 seeds, three #2 seeds and two #3 seeds to the Super Bowl.

The NFC has sent five #1 seeds, one #2 seed, one #3 seed, one #4 seed and one #5 seed to the Super Bowl.

The SB has been won by two #1 seeds, four #2 seeds, two #3 seeds and one #5 seed (need we be reminded of the latter?).

What does that say to me about the last nine seasons?

A) Being seeded #1 or #2 and getting the bye is (statistically) important to winning a Conference Championship and going to the SB.
--Six of nine AFC Champions had the bye.
--Six of nine NFC Champions had the bye.

B) Being seeded #1, for whatever reason, has been more important to winning the AFC Championship than it has been to winning the NFC Championship.
--Four of nine AFC #1 seeds have won the Conference Championship.
--Only two of nine NFC #1 seeds have won the Conference Championship.

C) Getting the bye is (statistically) important to winning the Super Bowl.
--Six of the nine SB's were won by a team that had the bye.

D) However being seeded #1 is not as important (statistically) as getting the bye when it comes to winning the Super Bowl:
--Only two #1 seeds have won the SB in the last nine years (New England in 03/04 and New Orleans in 09/10).

 

[Brady_to_Moss]

Patriots only have a lone loss at home in the playoffs if I'm not mistaken(correct me if I'm wrong) and that was on a year Brady was of his knee surgery and our defense was declining. Pats at home are nearly unbeatable its possible but its not an easy thing to do I'm comfortable with any team that comes to Foxboro.

i very confident at home as well..just remember that we can lose at home even though its not often...aka last year in playoffs

 

[The_Riddler]

We are more than likely going to see the Jets in Round 1, I don't see Matt Cassel and his lack of PO experience being able to beat an experienced Jets team especially given the level of competition each has faced.

This works out as it would send Balt/Indy to play the Steelers and I could honestly see either one of them beating Pitt.

Regardless, no one said these 2 home games were going to be walks in the park, but the team I would like to face the most is the Ravens, I'm just not impressed with Flacco and I can't see that team beating us at the Razor in back to back PO games.

Don't forget, Balt still could win the division if Pitt loses in Cleveland, this would put Pitt back to the 6th seed assuming the Jets beat Buffalo at home as they beat Pitt head-to-head. So this scenario would send Pitt to KC and the Jets to Indy and I could then see Pitt beating KC and then coming to NE for game one, which I will take also.

 

[Patriot_in_NY]

I think the the thing the Patriots should work most toward, if I many be so bold, is the fact that #1 #2 seeds have a very hard time winning Super Bowls, especially in the AFC.

Release » Top Seeds

We are well aware of this, but did not see a reason to bring it up, as much doubt was already pretty prevalent last year. This made us very nervous.

Im not sure how to handle it, but it seems the #1 #2 seed do not have a very good history of making or winning the show. Our hope is that you prevail.

It's been discussed a bit already in this thread, but deserves more attention.

It's not relevant what other teams do with their #1, only what the Patriots do. We've had it 2 times in the BB era and made it to the show both times. At this point, that is all we can ask for. Make it to the show...... Then see what happens. It's all any fan can ask for. So this stat actually favors us. If we get the #1 seed, we make the Bowl.... I'm happy with those odds.

There are a lot of reasons for that. The two most prominent are: 1) When BB has 2 weeks to prepare for a game, he has a ridiculous winning %, and 2) We play EXCEPTIONALLY well at home (last year's playoff loss not withstanding).

 

[mgteich]

And has been pointed out, the patriots have gone to the SB 100% of the time when they were the #1 seed.

There is no problem with being the number 1 seed. It is the best outcome a team can hope for after the regular season.

 

[mgteich]

The patriots record is 100%, 5 out of 5.

Those stats don't look too bad for the #1 seeds, at least in the AFC. The #1 seed makes it to the Superbowl 17 out of 34 years which looks like pretty good odds to me.

 

[BadMoFo]

Ravens and Colts will knock the other out

Just like Cleveland.

 

[Fahrenhype]

We are more than likely going to see the Jets in Round 1, I don't see Matt Cassel and his lack of PO experience being able to beat an experienced Jets team especially given the level of competition each has faced.

This works out as it would send Balt/Indy to play the Steelers and I could honestly see either one of them beating Pitt.

Regardless, no one said these 2 home games were going to be walks in the park, but the team I would like to face the most is the Ravens, I'm just not impressed with Flacco and I can't see that team beating us at the Razor in back to back PO games.

Don't forget, Balt still could win the division if Pitt loses in Cleveland, this would put Pitt back to the 6th seed assuming the Jets beat Buffalo at home as they beat Pitt head-to-head. So this scenario would send Pitt to KC and the Jets to Indy and I could then see Pitt beating KC and then coming to NE for game one, which I will take also.

All good points. It is interesting that if KC steps up, than only one of the three teams that has beaten the Pats or played them close in this regular season (Jets, Colts, Ravens) will be proceeding into the divisional round.

I say the Colts finally sealing up the South is inevitable this weekend and that the current seeding projections hold true. With that being the case, I think the most satisfying win in the divisional round would be ending the Jets season. Then bring on Pittsburgh, Indy, or Baltimore for the title game. I just don't want the title game caliber matchup happening before the actual title game due to the two strong AFC divisions mucking up the seeding.

 

[SVN]

personally i think the real adv is playing 1 less game than 4 other teams to get to the SB which doesnt get mentioned in that fashion.

 

[jbb9s]

Employing the use of the online interwebs, I have confirmed a suspicion I had earlier in the day: The Patriots may be hosting the tougher opponent during the divisional round, despite being the first seed. .

be at peace with two facts:

since the first game the Pats will play in the playoffs is coming off a bye, it is actually advantageous for them to play the more difficult opponent coming off 2 weeks than in the AFCCG

and

since the season ending has simply a binary outcome in this organization: win SB or not. And if they lose any of the three games, it will be the latter outcome. We could be robbed a Patriots game (or two), but in 10 years looking back it will be an equal disappointment for the Brady/Belichick legacy.

 

[captain insano]

Employing the use of the online interwebs, I have confirmed a suspicion I had earlier in the day: The Patriots may be hosting the tougher opponent during the divisional round, despite being the first seed. Two issues:

01. Four of the best teams in the conference were in two divisions - East and North. Yeah, we gotta see if the Jets are still deserving of this distinction (the only thing keeping them in the picture was the victory over the Steelers) but either way you're getting teams that were at one point looking like division winners as wild card contenders. This doesn't impact the Pats immediately since they have the bye, but...

02. The Chiefs seem to be a total wrench in the prognostication machinery (sounded better than calling them the "wild card"). They have only played ONE of the other AFC playoff teams this year in a loss to the Colts. The NFC division they played isn't going to a field a + .500 team in the playoffs. I have no idea how anyone predicts how they fare in the wild card round. It would be easy to write off their lack of a tough schedule but the Cardinals made it to the superbowl two years ago.

The way I see it, the Chiefs could be better than people are giving them credit for, but not quite as good as a team they are seeded higher than like the Ravens. The Steelers could be sitting pretty with the #2 seed, not having to play Baltimore in the divisional round. There is no way the Patriots play the Chiefs in the divisional round, so they could be looking at either Indy or Baltimore. Despite recent performances, it is hard to even consider the Jets as a lesser team since they played a considerably tougher schedule and have the same number of wins right now. The plus side there is a recent matchup indicates the Pats are simply the better team right now, even with the expectation of a playoff game being closer. Wild card weekend is going to be very, very interesting.

there is no pitfall to the one seed. zero nadda zip. what difference does it make when they play the best team available? they have to win two games . it doesnt matter when they play any team.

 

[karran_s]

The patriots record is 100%, 5 out of 5.

IMO.. The Pats make history this year and will go all the way !

 

[Brady-To-Branch]

In all 4 Pats SB seasons (# 1 seed):

2001 - # 2 (Pittsburgh)
2003 - # 1
2004 - # 2 (Pittsburgh)
2007 - # 1

 

[PatsFan24]

For you guys you love history, the pats have been a #1 seed two other times, both times they made it to the super bowl. In my time of being a fan they have had a bye 5 times before this year, and they have played in the super bowl all 5.

 

[Fahrenhype]

be at peace with two facts:

since the first game the Pats will play in the playoffs is coming off a bye, it is actually advantageous for them to play the more difficult opponent coming off 2 weeks than in the AFCCG

Agreed. I'm glad they are #1 and have home field and the bye. I probably should have worded the thread title better but it really has more to do with division winners automatically getting a third or fourth seed, and this to me is actually going to be a much bigger deal in the NFC considering they will likely have the Saints and Packers as wild cards.

Falcons could easily be "none and done" in terms of playoff wins if the Packers or Saints go into there in the division round - either of those matchups would be a worthy conference title game. The Steelers best win to get to the superbowl for Ring #5 was over Indy in the divisional round, not over the Broncos in the title game.

Most interesting story to me this weekend is the potential for the Seahawks getting the #4 seed with a losing record. The league has to want the Rams to win to save face, because otherwise you're going to be hearing plenty about nuking the initial seeding just based on division winners when you potentially have to the two best teams in the conference playing in the divisional game. I just don't think such an oddly skewed playoff seeding due to a crap division results in the best games. Saying "win your division" is all well and good but the Saints may very well be four wins (or FIVE!) better than the NFC West "champion." We already saw a few seasons ago how eleven wins wasn't enough to get into the playoffs which was ridiculous.

 

[RodRustsGhost]

Ok, so I looked at the list there and basically what I read is, if you're a #1 seed you have a HUGE statistical advantage of winning a superbowl. More than 20 of the last 30 superbowls were won by #1 seeds. NFC having a wide advantage there, but regardless, #1 is a gigantic advantage in first getting to the superbowl and then winning it. There's absolutely no drawback.

If you were to plot it out like a bell curve it quickly becomes apparent that #1 seeds are the big boy at the top of the curve. I don't see any disadvantage here at all.

 

[Fahrenhype]

Ok, so I looked at the list there and basically what I read is, if you're a #1 seed you have a HUGE statistical advantage of winning a superbowl. More than 20 of the last 30 superbowls were won by #1 seeds. NFC having a wide advantage there, but regardless, #1 is a gigantic advantage in first getting to the superbowl and then winning it. There's absolutely no drawback.

If you were to plot it out like a bell curve it quickly becomes apparent that #1 seeds are the big boy at the top of the curve. I don't see any disadvantage here at all.

Like I said, it was poor wording on my part. It is more about how the 3 - 6 seeding works. I honestly think if the Seahawks get in there is going to be a change.

 

[KamikazeKnight]

Personally, i'm rooting for the seahawks to get in with a losing record and upset everyone all the way through to a Super Bowl win. :singing:

 

[rabthepat]

Personally, i'm rooting for the seahawks to get in with a losing record and upset everyone all the way through to a Super Bowl win. :singing:

It would not shock me at all...this years Superbowl is wide open.