Snowball's Chance: Thoughts from Canada, eh.

[JSn]

Last year I would often do a "things I learned from the game" post, but this year there were enough of those out there for the reading.

Today, I just have to write a bit on this game, even just to air my own thoughts.

I really thought we'd make a different kind of statement than we did. The statement, now re-enforced by the Saints, but already made in the Colts loss is that we aren't a championship football team, at least not as November becomes December.

Things I think that may be clear:

• Maroney is slowly becoming one of the better players on this team. I don't know how this could even happen, but f'real, he is. He is hardly one of the problems on this team. We just need to see him secure the ball a little better. Props to Bill for not benching him after the drop.
  
• Wilfork is maybe the only consistent player on this defense. They better keep him around if they want a chance.
  
• Brady is a very good QB, but he's not as good as he once was and it's tough to know if he ever will be. He's had some great games, but the mental errors are really shocking to me. He just doesn't seems scary out there any more, unless you're a crappy team with no chance. There's no way he shouldn't have lit that secondary up, however...
  
• The O-Line is a wreck. Are you kidding me? They rush 3-4 guys and and still get tons of pressure? I put a lot of it on Connolly on Light. Light is a far cry from Vollmer, imo. It's hard to say that, but I think it's true. We can harp on Kaczur, but I think he's left second guessing what's happening with the RG on a lot of plays which is causing problems.
  
• Sam Aiken IS a viable #3 receiver. If Brady puts down a better throw to him along the sidelines, he may have had a TD. Someone is caoching that guy up to use his TE-ish physique as a weapon.
  
• And finally, coaching is a glaring weakness. I don't mean Bill, you could see his frustration. If I were him I would get Weis in there at whatever the cost NOW and take over the defense and kick Pees to the curb. I don't think the D woes are all player-related. I think there's some big problems in the coaching and it's pretty tough to ignore that. All this talent is going to go to waste and they can wait NO LONGER than today to fix it.

I love this team, I think they can be great, but Bill is gonna have to perform some surgery on this team, especially in the coaching staff, if they're going to do ANYTHING this year. I don't even feel like I can fairly predict 12-4, to be honest.

Thanks for letting me rant guys.

 

[IndianPat]

The OL is definitely a problem. Yet another problem is the inability of the TE to participate in the passing game. Sure, they help to block in the run game, but the production in the passing is practically non-existent. No wonder, the opposition is able to concentrate on Moss and Welker.

C,mon Watson. You have to get open. Even Daniel Graham, who was supposedly a blocking tight end, had more receptions than you per year.

That said, even though our offense put up 17 points yesterday, they could have easily put up 30 points yesterday - the missed field goal could have been closer, the fourth and four would have been 3 points and the last 7 minutes would have brought 7 points.

The reverse is true of our dL and LB's. While the oppositions 3 or 4 rushers take on our OL with ease, our pass rush has not pressured any one. Ultimately, I think a lot of mistakes can be corrected. Unfortunately, the deficient pass rush will stay with us this year.

 

[Patstopia]

It saddens me to think that a 12-4 or 11-5 season is now considered unacceptable. Have Patriots fans become that arrogant that nothing short of perfection is acceptable? I read these boards and cannot understand half the BS that is said. People need to grow a pair and stop acting like a bunch of babies.

 

[NickOGS20]

Yet another problem is the inability of the TE to participate in the passing game.

Think that problem's been overlooked a little, it's a great point. Baker and Watson seem to have vanished as pass-catchers in recent weeks and that only serves to make us all the more predictable on offense.

 

[The Intimidator]

It saddens me to think that a 12-4 or 11-5 season is now considered unacceptable. Have Patriots fans become that arrogant that nothing short of perfection is acceptable? I read these boards and cannot understand half the BS that is said. People need to grow a pair and stop acting like a bunch of babies.

No we haven't been, were just looking at the fact of how we are playing vs. elite competition and on the road, it draws a lot of red flags. We are simply stating that this team is not living up to expectations to begin the year and has beaten average to below average competition this season. Last night didn't concern you? It certainly did me, and what I have seen out of this team tells me that they couldn't beat a New Orleans, San Diego, Minnesota or Indy in the playoffs. I agree with you that we shouldn't be *****ing about being 7-4 and making this team sound like were the Browns or the Lions, but there is some complaining to be done after laying an egg last night in a huge game for playoff seeding.

 

[ausbacker]

Last year I would often do a "things I learned from the game" post, but this year there were enough of those out there for the reading.

Today, I just have to write a bit on this game, even just to air my own thoughts.

I really thought we'd make a different kind of statement than we did. The statement, now re-enforced by the Saints, but already made in the Colts loss is that we aren't a championship football team, at least not as November becomes December.

Things I think that may be clear:

• Maroney is slowly becoming one of the better players on this team. I don't know how this could even happen, but f'real, he is. He is hardly one of the problems on this team. We just need to see him secure the ball a little better. Props to Bill for not benching him after the drop.
  
• Wilfork is maybe the only consistent player on this defense. They better keep him around if they want a chance.
  
• Brady is a very good QB, but he's not as good as he once was and it's tough to know if he ever will be. He's had some great games, but the mental errors are really shocking to me. He just doesn't seems scary out there any more, unless you're a crappy team with no chance. There's no way he shouldn't have lit that secondary up, however...
  
• The O-Line is a wreck. Are you kidding me? They rush 3-4 guys and and still get tons of pressure? I put a lot of it on Connolly on Light. Light is a far cry from Vollmer, imo. It's hard to say that, but I think it's true. We can harp on Kaczur, but I think he's left second guessing what's happening with the RG on a lot of plays which is causing problems.
  
• Sam Aiken IS a viable #3 receiver. If Brady puts down a better throw to him along the sidelines, he may have had a TD. Someone is caoching that guy up to use his TE-ish physique as a weapon.
  
• And finally, coaching is a glaring weakness. I don't mean Bill, you could see his frustration. If I were him I would get Weis in there at whatever the cost NOW and take over the defense and kick Pees to the curb. I don't think the D woes are all player-related. I think there's some big problems in the coaching and it's pretty tough to ignore that. All this talent is going to go to waste and they can wait NO LONGER than today to fix it.

I love this team, I think they can be great, but Bill is gonna have to perform some surgery on this team, especially in the coaching staff, if they're going to do ANYTHING this year. I don't even feel like I can fairly predict 12-4, to be honest.

Thanks for letting me rant guys.

1. We've known for a while that the o-line is problematic and susceptible to a good pass rush.
2. I don't think Aiken is a viable 3rd receiving option. Maybe a fourth or fifth, but not a 3rd.
3. Brady looks a far cry from what he "was/is" because he no longer looks at his best receiver being the open receiver. That was the glaringly obvious difference between him and Brees last night. That's because the Patriots only go 2 deep at wideout in Moss and Welker.
4. Maroney is starting to chug along nicely. His ball protection has been a little shoddy, but he is running powerfully and letting plays evolve rather than having to make them happen.
5. I believe we'll probably make the playoffs, but unless we get home field, I doubt we'll put up much of a yelp in the playoffs and be out early unless something drastic changes. I had us sitting somewhere in the 12-4 to 10-6 range dependent upon how much the Patriots hurt the Patriots chances.

 

[mayoclinic]

It saddens me to think that a 12-4 or 11-5 season is now considered unacceptable. Have Patriots fans become that arrogant that nothing short of perfection is acceptable? I read these boards and cannot understand half the BS that is said. People need to grow a pair and stop acting like a bunch of babies.

11-5 was a great performance from last year's team, with no Brady and a porous secondary. It would be a bit of disappointment from this year's team. What's mainly disappoint so far is the way our losses have come:

- 0 wins on the road (not counting Wembley)
- 0 wins in the 4 most hyped games of the year (first Jets game, Broncos, Indy and NO)
- Big time collapse against New Orleans after the team had appeared to be on the rise

I think we're accustomed (and albeit spoiled) by seeing BB teams peak in December and play their best ball, regardless of how the season turns out. To have a BB team have these kind of lapses and mistakes this late in the season is unusual.

But we're admittedly spoiled.

 

[NJPatsfan26]

11-5 was a great performance from last year's team, with no Brady and a porous secondary. It would be a bit of disappointment from this year's team. What's mainly disappoint so far is the way our losses have come:

- 0 wins on the road (not counting Wembley)
- 0 wins in the 4 most hyped games of the year (first Jets game, Broncos, Indy and NO)
- Big time collapse against New Orleans after the team had appeared to be on the rise

I think we're accustomed (and albeit spoiled) by seeing BB teams peak in December and play their best ball, regardless of how the season turns out. To have a BB team have these kind of lapses and mistakes this late in the season is unusual.

But we're admittedly spoiled.

Agree with you...As fans, we are definitely spoiled. This team has been amazing in the last decade. But the issue is we are so used to being so good, that when we loose 4 games in a season, its over. Life begins to crumble and we start acting like chicken little's.

In the short of it, we will be fine as a team. We will rebuild as a franchise and be a good as we can.

 

[supafly]

No we haven't been, were just looking at the fact of how we are playing vs. elite competition and on the road, it draws a lot of red flags. We are simply stating that this team is not living up to expectations to begin the year and has beaten average to below average competition this season. Last night didn't concern you? It certainly did me, and what I have seen out of this team tells me that they couldn't beat a New Orleans, San Diego, Minnesota or Indy in the playoffs. I agree with you that we shouldn't be *****ing about being 7-4 and making this team sound like were the Browns or the Lions, but there is some complaining to be done after laying an egg last night in a huge game for playoff seeding.

I think this is a great post, very spot on and accurate.
Most of us aren't complaining about anything more than the obvious, glaring weaknesses--and there are many homers here who refuse to believe there's much of a problem.

When was the last time a BB team went in the month of December without a win on the road?

We are basically 5-4, when you take out the 2 wins against hapless TEN and TAM.

We've lost all 4 of the 'big' challenge-type games against the NYJ, DEN, IND, and NO. We also had to score 14 pts in the last 4 min. to come back against BUF, were a dropped pass away from losing to BAL, and won against MIA where the game was 24-17 before a meaningless FG--and that was coming off a bye at home!!! This weeks MIA game on the road after losing a MNF game on the road in a shortened week will be a very serious, hard challenging game, yet there are many who fail to realize how hard it will be. Remember we are now dealing with the MNF rule, which states that teams who lose on the road during MNF and have to travel AGAIN during a shortened week have approximately a 15 % chance of victory.

The secondary has been given way too much credit due to the heightened stats against TEN, TAM, and mediocre NYJ and MIA games. They are once again on pace to give up almost the exact same number of TD'S through the air as last yr's 31st ranked passing TD'S allowed team.

People who state that the loss of Richard Seymour means nothing are in total denial, as every week we watch 31 other teams rush the QB. Our pass rush is the worst I can remember in yrs, and our rush defense is average at best. Teams will continue to attack our weakness, which is specifically through the right side of the secondary/and down the middle.

The off-season acquisitions are average at best. Greg Lewis, Alex Smith, Joey Galloway, Shawn Springs, Derrick Burgess, Kendall Simmons--even Chris Baker have all looked like complete failures. We failed to address many areas of need/weaknesses such as 3rd WR, pass rusher, even though we realized it was a problem early on in the year.

We are unable to currently instill fear in many opponents, as teams used to fear us in every game. Gameplanning has been a major problem, and this obviously goes hand in hand in coaching too.

2nd half game adjustments used to be our specialty, no one was better than this team. It has been a major weakness, and there hasn't been any progress made since the problem was addressed. That simply isn't Patriot football.


---------So, yes it seems we'll win the division by absolute default, as we did in 05 with a 10-6 record, but does anyone really think we'll go anywhere in the playoffs? The only teams that I would feel the least bit confident about right now would be rematches with DEN and BAL, and both of those games would be at home, not to mention very hard. I honestly think teams like IND, SD, CIN, and even PIT would certainly be favored. That is something that just shouldn't be. Not with one of the top 5 QB'S of all time. Not with one of the top 5 coaches of all time. Not with 2 great, all-pro WR's. I just don't feel like we have done a good job of taking advantage of our weapons, and the window for winning a SB is shrinking every day. I can already see the headlines regarding next yr's team stating that we'd be the odds-on favorites yet again, due to TFB returning to form, Welker, the last yr of Moss, BB, the growing up of this yr's rookies, and the draft additions--but that is starting to sound like a broken record the past 3-4 yrs.

Keep in mind, I have been a Pats fan since '85, and I have seen a lot of crappy years/teams, so I am always grateful for the ability to compete. I am not acting like a chicken-little, I am simply stating facts--and am frusterated like many of us, for not being able to fix these obvious problems. There is no reason to attack me, I am and will always be grateful to be a top 8-10 team, and I think with BB we'll always be. I just think we currently have the talent to make a run for another title RIGHT NOW, but cannot fix these problems well enough to make a serious run at the SB. No one should ever complain about going to the playoffs, it's just pretty apparent that this yr's team does not have what it would take to beat 3-4 great teams in a row, especially on the road, etc.

 

[RichSeymour]

It saddens me to think that a 12-4 or 11-5 season is now considered unacceptable. Have Patriots fans become that arrogant that nothing short of perfection is acceptable? I read these boards and cannot understand half the BS that is said. People need to grow a pair and stop acting like a bunch of babies.

True that. Here's the problem - a lot of people here EXPECTED a 16-0 season, so their homer egos are bruised. The fans that had realistic expectations, that Brady was coming back from surgery, proven vets such as Vrabel and my name-sake Seymour were gone, and that 2007 was a perfect storm that wouldn't happen again....well those fans shouldn't be too disappointed.

 

[supafly]

True that. Here's the problem - a lot of people here EXPECTED a 16-0 season, so their homer egos are bruised. The fans that had realistic expectations, that Brady was coming back from surgery, proven vets such as Vrabel and my name-sake Seymour were gone, and that 2007 was a perfect storm that wouldn't happen again....well those fans shouldn't be too disappointed.

That's not true RS. In the season-prediction thread from Sept., I predicted a 11-5 season, due to the very hard schedule. What I didn't expect, were all of the things I listed in post #9.

 

[oldskool138]

We are simply stating that this team is not living up to expectations to begin the year and has beaten average to below average competition this season.

This...

The '09 Pats are a lot like the '09 Sox. Great against average and below average teams and bad against good teams.

 

[oldskool138]

3. Brady looks a far cry from what he "was/is" because he no longer looks at his best receiver being the open receiver. That was the glaringly obvious difference between him and Brees last night. That's because the Patriots only go 2 deep at wideout in Moss and Welker.

I've been saying this for a while now. Moss and Welker are great but I liked Brady when he'd throw to whoever was open and didn't focus in on one guy. That's what made him dangerous in the early part of his career. Remember when he'd throw to 8-10 different guys a game? What happened to that?

 

[Patspsycho]

True that. Here's the problem - a lot of people here EXPECTED a 16-0 season, so their homer egos are bruised. The fans that had realistic expectations, that Brady was coming back from surgery, proven vets such as Vrabel and my name-sake Seymour were gone, and that 2007 was a perfect storm that wouldn't happen again....well those fans shouldn't be too disappointed.

You couldn't be more wrong. It's clear that you made that up, if you go and see the POLL from the beginning of the season, MOST people picked 13-3, 12-4, and some picked 11-5.

So please don't embarrass yourself by making sh!t up. Just makes you look stupid.

 

[patsfan-1982]

i think this is who brady is he is on pace for 28 TD's and about 4000 yerd's


the 50... TD season was a one time thing

payton is the stat guy

brady was the winner and he did it not by throwing a lot of TD's but he did it by doing a nuff to get the lead and leting the D win it

and that's why they cant win on the road this D is to soft and has no pass rush at all


this D need's talent not leader's like seau who cant get on the field and that's not a knock on him
he is one of the greatest LB's to ever play this game but now he is a coach not a player

but BB is working on it, it's not going to happen over night it may take 2 or 3 year's for BB to get this D whear it was

 

[MoLewisrocks]

I've been saying this for a while now. Moss and Welker are great but I liked Brady when he'd throw to whoever was open and didn't focus in on one guy. That's what made him dangerous in the early part of his career. Remember when he'd throw to 8-10 different guys a game? What happened to that?

Belichick saw that result in back to back seasons where it wasn't nearly enough. So when opportunity knocked in the form of Randy Moss for a 4th he decided to do something about it by upgrading Tom's top two weapons in the passing game and going with a spread offense. He believed that in this present environment you needed quick strike vertical potential to compete, particularly if your defense was flagging down the back nine of several careers and was headed for an overhaul sooner than later and would need support throughout. And if you were already in possession of a HOF QB capable of adapting to any scheme you'd be foolish not to make the move toward it. Trouble is he didn't allow for the fact that his OL was so ill suited to the task he might not be able to scheme around their deficiencies.

Early on he was able to skate by virtue of catching the rest of the league napping on Moss' viability. Once they realized they'd made a glaring miscalculation, they set about each in their own way to recalculate their aproach to this monster Bill had created. By December of 2007 a couple of team were making inroads and the outline of a blueprint of sorts began to emerge centered on getting pressure on Brady. The Giants DC refined that blueprint in the run up to the superbowl. Other DC's have copied it while some, like Williams, have now further refined it and found ways to limit Welker in the process. Since his plan didn't involve all pro personnel across the LOS or shut down corners or exotic blitzing schemes, this is not an encouraging development. Though since it was also somewhat dependent on an elite QB performing at the top of his game it's not like just everyone can duplicate it, either. But that doesn't mean everyone won't give it the old college try, as they basically have been with this team from pre season to post season since 2007. The target on our backs doesn't diminish even when we haven't won one in 4 seasons...

This was an interesting post from the Planet's version of the fire Pees thread from one of the better x's and o's breakdown posters, addressing one of the simpleton why didn't the do what we used to do on offense or call plays that obviously would have worked posters, and his take on what went wrong on offense Monday night and why (given what went wrong on defense was clearly blown coverages and assignments and shoddy execution from a young group of defenders :ugh: ).

I might have to watch the game again to formulate a true opinion on what was taking place, but on first viewing, I thought the center of the Pats's OL was manhandled most of the night. Koppen and Neal were getting run over repeatedly. I don't think that Mankins was all that much better.

Screens are great against Man blitzes but not so great against Man 2 zone under which I believe we saw a lot of from the Saints. The Saints have very good LBs which allow them to make up for weaknesses elsewhere (Pats had that luxury a few years ago).

The Saints can play Man 2 Match while also covering three or four underneath zones while covering down slot receivers without too much fear of big plays down the middle of the field because of their backers.

These attributes took away many of the Pat's strengths like the MOFO throws to Watson (as we saw late w/Brady unable to connect on two of those throws), the bubbles, looks and smokes to Welk & Moss, the screens to the backs, etc. Being able to generate a pass rush while dropping eight allowed the Saints to play the screens, bracket Welker, sit low defenders on crossing routes to limit YAC, while also defending the deep holes outside and in the MOFO. This was just a poor match-up for the Pat's Offense made worse once they had to abandon the run trying to stay in the game. The run is the way to go against Man 2 looks as you said but the Saints ability to strike quick and early eventually killed that option. Their defensive speed also improved against the run as the game wore on.

 

[MoLewisrocks]

You couldn't be more wrong. It's clear that you made that up, if you go and see the POLL from the beginning of the season, MOST people picked 13-3, 12-4, and some picked 11-5.

So please don't embarrass yourself by making sh!t up. Just makes you look stupid.

I don't think he looks stupid although he's clearly playing the I told you so card. For all the rational ass covering predictions and prognostications here there remains a widespread irrational subconscious mindset where any loss is proof of impending epic failure. In game threads here it routinely reveals it's ugly head on basically a play by play basis.

 

[MassPats38]

I tend to agree with ausbacker on receiver options hurting the offense. Welker and Moss are great, but you currently have an array of options, seemingly different every week, at the other receiver positions. Gruden pointed out Monday night that that many changes during a season does not facilitate offensive production. Add in the number of offensive linemen added and deleted every week and you have different continuity issues. You cannot assume alternates will play as well as starters. The hope is you don't lose too much with the substitutions.

For those wondering if this team can win big games, ask if Indy is a major problem for any other teams in the playoffs. If it is, the Pats were drubbing them and in danger of running away with that game on the road. I suspect as the defense lacked Warren and Green that game, and the team relies heavily on rotation to avoid its big men tiring down, one might question whether the pressure through 3 quarters and collapse of the defense in the last had something to do with that. If the Pats won that game, would so many fans be contemplating sepaku after putting up a clunker against the New Orleans and pining away for those glorious days of yore when the Patriots were winners and had the greatest coaches since Lombardi calling the plays?

If the Patriots are 1 and done, who puts them out. Indy, for the reasons discussed above? San Diego at 8-3, with running backs typically sitting out the post-season and a leading receiver more know for drops than catches? The Steelers at 7-4? The Bengals, who lost to the Raiders and last beat the worst team in football 16-7 and have to play the Vikings and Chargers in the remaining games?

At this point, only the most absurd of homers would claim the Pats are some unstoppable juggernaut with a direct line to the Lombardi. There are issues in the form of injuries, execution and coaching. Short of a season-ending injury, all can be addressed in time for the playoffs. To anyone so certain the team is going nowhere, why watch at all? Failure isn't fun.

The Dolphins have an off chance of winning the division, the game is on the road, and a loss for them is a stake right through the heart of playoff dreams. If the assumption is the Pats can't win on the road, this should be a test for that proposition. Otherwise, the Pats have lost 3 away games to two 11-0 teams and another team high in the playoff mix. Other than the Saints (a game played after two highly emotional games and an out-of-conference game with a team with which the Pats have no real history), the losses were by a grand total of 4 points.

The only thing that should matter is the playoffs, whether the record is 16-0 or 9-7, and teams need to win on the road to clear that high hurdle. To do that, the Pats need to find a stride and execute on the field. I for one am not writing off playoff aspirations as a 7-4 record in the "any given Sunday" NFL indicates this team can win. The smackdown the Saints administered may be just the medicine to give this team perspective and focus, a good message that the road ahead is far from easy.

 

[MoLewisrocks]

Excellent points all. The guys on the post game show Monday were pointing out exactly the same thing.

 

[Spiral]

That's not true RS. In the season-prediction thread from Sept., I predicted a 11-5 season, due to the very hard schedule. What I didn't expect, were all of the things I listed in post #9.

Note to all those who, uh, forgot what they predicted at the start of the season, you can click on each response to see who predicted what. This thread should be a sticky. FWIW, supafly said 12-4.