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The Last 5 Games

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mayoclinic

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The Pats opened the season 3-2, with two painful road losses, Brady looking rusty and out of sync, Mayo missing essentially the first 4 games and Welker missing 2 games. The Pats' opponents for those 5 games have an aggregate record of 23-27. Our high powered offense was averaging under 21 PPG through those games. Our rushing offense averaged 101 YPG in those 5 games, running for over 100 yards only once (168 against Atlanta; we averaged 84 YPG in the other 4 games). Our defense was better than ancitipated allowing an average of 18.2 PPG, forcing 6 turnovers (4 fumbles and 2 interceptions, one by Randy Moss on an Ortan Hail Mary; there was also a key fumble forced by our special teams unit against Buffalo). Our point differential through 5 games averaged a paltry 2.6 PPG.

In contrast, the Saints opened the season 5-0. Their 5 opponents have a current aggregate record of 21-29. They averaged 38.4 PPG over those 5 games, and put up 45 or more in 3 of the 5 games. They averaged 157.8 YPG rushing. They destroyed Philadelphia and the Giants, both of whom are playoff contenders. Their defense gave up an average of 18.6 PPG over those 5 games, facing two of the top 10 scoring offenses in the NFL (Giants and Philly), and forced 15 turnovers, producing 3 defensive scores. Their point differential through 5 games averaged 19.8 PPG.

Now let's look at the past 5 games.

The Pats have gone 4-1, with the only loss a 1 point loss to Indy on the road after dominating the game for 3+ quarters. They have done this despite losing their starting LT and 2 of their running backs. Our opponents for these 5 games have an aggregate record of 24-26. During this period the Patriots have averaged 37.2 PPG, best in the NFL. Take away the 59-0 blowout against Tennessee and we're still averaging almost 32 PPG. Tom Brady has thrown for over 300 yards in all 5 games. The running attack (minus Taylor and Morris) has averaged 126.6 YPG, rushing for over 100 yards in all 5 games and outrushing the opposing team in 4 of the 5 games. The defense has given up an average of 14.6 PPG, despite giving up 21 points to Peyton Manning in the 4th quarter. Take away that quarter and they are averaging 10.2 PPG. The defense has forced 15 turnovers in those 5 games, including 2 defensive TDs. The only downside is that the defense has given up an average of 122.6 YPG rushing in those 5 games. The Pats have a differential of 22.6 PPG over those 5 games.

The Saints have gone 5-0 in the last 5 games, coming from behind against Miami and Carolina and struggling against 1-9 St. Louis. They have had several injuries to key players during that period. Their opponents for those 5 games have an aggregate record of 16-34. During that period the Saints have averaged 35.4 PPG, second only to the Pats. The running game has had to deal with injuries, but has still averaged 150.8 YPG. Their defense has given up an average of 22.2 PPG over those 5 games, and has forced 14 turnovers including 3 for TDs. Their point differential through those 5 games has been 13.2 PPG.

The Saints have been very consistent despite injuries in the past 5 games. Their scoring has gone down slightly (38.4 to 35.4 PPG) but they still remain at or close to the top. Their running game has continued to pile up over 150 YPG despite injuries. Their defense has given up more points (22.2 vs. 18.6, and against weaker competition) but has continued to force turnovers at an impressive pace, often leading to defensive scores.

The Pats have been a completely different team over the past 5 games. They were 3-2 and not terribly impressive by the stats in their first 5 games. They have dominated the past 5, leading the league in scoring and in scoring defense over that period. Their rushing attack has picked up despite injuries to Sammie Morris, Fred Taylor and Matt Light. Their defense has started producing turnovers at a pace similar to that of New Orleans' defense. And they have gone 4-1 against a much tougher schedule the NO's for the past 5 games (24-26 vs. 16-34) with their only loss being a 1 point road loss to the Colts in a game they had dominated and should have won.

The Saints have been the better team over 10 games. Over the past 5 games, the Pats have been the more impressive team.

Should be a great game Monday night.
 
Excellent post Mayo. I can see your analysis showing up on on MNF with Gruden or Jaws making the points you're making.

Excellent.

QB12
 
Excellent post Mayo. I can see your analysis showing up on on MNF with Gruden or Jaws making the points you're making.

Excellent.

QB12

Thanks, though I'm not sure I want to be compared to the MNF crowd.
 
Great post mayoclinic. This Monday night there will be a Patriots Domination Revolution that will leave the Saints only marching to defeat.
 
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Sorry, but fat chance at seeing 2 16-0 teams. The Saints just look like theyre waiting to slip, and the Pats are more than willing to be the "slippers"
 
The Saints have been pretty consistent in terms of their running game and forcing turnovers between the first 5 games and the last. What would worry me if I were a Saints fan is that they've decreased their own scoring by 3 PPG and given up an additional 3.6 PPG against markedly inferior opposition. Tampa Bay and St. Louis are both in the bottom 5 in scoring defense, Miami and Carolina in the bottom 10, and Atlanta tied for 19th. In terms of offensive scoring Carolina is 23rd, Tampa Bay 27th, and St. Louis 31st. The Saints allowed the Rams to score over double their average points (12 more than their 11.2 average), and allowed Carolina (20 vs. 19.3), Atlanta (27 vs. 25.2), and Miami (34 vs. 24.2) to also exceed their average scoring.

I think Adam Duerson's point on CNNSI that the Saints played their best football in the first 5 games and the Pats have played their best in the last 5 games is a valid one.
 
The losses the Pats have sustained this season have all been tough to swallow, but it is quite clear that this team is doing what they've done in their best seasons. This means getting better as the year goes along. They are playing great football and I don't think they're peaking yet. Everyone remembers peaking too early in 07, hopefully this is a year where they're peaking just in time to hoist a shiny trophy
 
The losses the Pats have sustained this season have all been tough to swallow, but it is quite clear that this team is doing what they've done in their best seasons. This means getting better as the year goes along. They are playing great football and I don't think they're peaking yet. Everyone remembers peaking too early in 07, hopefully this is a year where they're peaking just in time to hoist a shiny trophy

I've mentioned in previous threads that there's quite a bit of data against early frontrunners winning the SB, or even making it.

2008 - Tennessee opens 10-0. NY Giants are dominant NFC team thru November. Neither team makes their conference championship game, much less the SB.

2007 - Pats open as the most dominant team ever, finish 16-0. Lose to the Giants (who needed a late surge to make the postseason as a wild card) in the SB.

2006 - Chargers are the dominant team in the NFL, finishing 14-2. Lose in the divisional round to the Patriots. Indy, who had finished 2-3 in their last 5 games, suddenly finds a defense in the playoffs and wins the SB.

2005 - Indy starts 13-0 but loses 2 of its next 3 and is upset in the divisional round by wild card Pittsburgh (who needed a 4 game win streak just to make the playoffs), who goes on to win the SB.

2004 - Pittsburgh finishes the season with an NFL best 15-1 record, including a win over the 14-2 Patriots, who beat them in the AFCCG and go on to win the SB.

2003 - NE starts the season 2-2 but then wins 12 in a row and goes on to win the SB.

This history doesn't favor 10-0 Indy and 10-0 New Orleans winning the SB. Dominating early usally means peaking early, and that's not generally a good thing. We learned that the hard way in 2007.
 
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