Do the Pats have a second half problem?

[Synovia]

Makes sense, but I dont think Maroney is that guy, he has too many 0 or negative yardage plays.

DO I need to point out success rate again? Maroney literally is one of the best RBs in the league at avoiding runs for losses.


Your eyes are lying to you.

 

[aluminum seats]

Look at some the situations. The Pats scored five TDs vs. the Titans in the second quarter and then took Brady out of the game in the second half. The Pats are up 45-0 at half time in that game. They score 14 more points the rest of the game with Hoyer at QB for most of the second half. That skews the data quite a bit.

It really doesn't. Look at the numbers throwing out that game entirely...by quarter through the other nine games:

Pats score 61, 90, 25, 55

Opponents scores stay the same, naturally, because Tenn. was shut-out:

27, 52, 37, 45

What you could do is focus the discussion at bit more, as Mayo did a good job with--arguably the Pats' primary problem is 3rd quarter offense.

 

[Synovia]

And I will, just for kicks. Top 10 Runningbacks in the NFL, success rate:

1. Ricky Williams (58%)
2. M. Bell (NO) (57%)
3. Ray Rice (55%)
4. P. Thomas(NO) (54%)
5. J. Steward (54%)
6. R. Mendenhall (54%)
7. MARONEY (53%)
8. K. Moreno (53%)
9. M. Barber (52%)
10. A. Bradshaw (51%)


Adrian Peterson is at 45%. He's more like the 1st back than the second one. Fortunately, he looks like this instead:

2,3,2,3,75,3,65,2,3,4

 

[aluminum seats]

Are you arguing that they didn't do that, because to me, thats exactly what happened.

Put the Jets and away and control the second half? No, I don't think the Pats did that.

I think they won. I think the Jets are currently a bad team with an overmatched quarterback. I think if Sanchez was even marginally competent, the Jets could have easily made a game of it. I don't think that would be case if the Pats were putting a team away and controlling the game.

 

[The Dynasty]

And I will, just for kicks. Top 10 Runningbacks in the NFL, success rate:

1. Ricky Williams (58%)
2. M. Bell (NO) (57%)
3. Ray Rice (55%)
4. P. Thomas(NO) (54%)
5. J. Steward (54%)
6. R. Mendenhall (54%)
7. MARONEY (53%)
8. K. Moreno (53%)
9. M. Barber (52%)
10. A. Bradshaw (51%)


Adrian Peterson is at 45%. He's more like the 1st back than the second one. Fortunately, he looks like this instead:

2,3,2,3,75,3,65,2,3,4

I'll give credit where it is due, and that is a good stat. He definitely has improved on that because I can remember earlier in the year something like 25% of his runs were for negative yards, I even remember posting that stat. I am actually a Maroney fan, unlike many people on here. I just think when it comes to having a long sustained drive with a running attack Morris or Taylor is more suited for that. I would like to see Maroney get the ball thrown to him out of the backfield and give him some space, I think he would be very effective.

 

[chris66]

Pats dont have that go to back that can just eat the clock on a consistent basis.

 

[Synovia]

Put the Jets and away and control the second half? No, I don't think the Pats did that.

The jets never came within 10 points. The pats held the ball for 21 minutes in the 2nd half.

How is that "not controlling the half"

 

[Synovia]

I'll give credit where it is due, and that is a good stat. He definitely has improved on that because I can remember earlier in the year something like 25% of his runs were for negative yards, I even remember posting that stat.

You may remember that, but its never been the case. Maroney has consistently been in the top 10 in the league in success rate

I am actually a Maroney fan, unlike many people on here. I just think when it comes to having a long sustained drive with a running attack Morris or Taylor is more suited for that.

The statistics show otherwise. Morris gets stopped in the backfield a ton. Taylor was terrible last year, and theres just not enough carries this year to say anything about him.

 

[Synovia]

Pats dont have that go to back that can just eat the clock on a consistent basis.

They've got 3 of them. They don't have a line that run blocks well.

 

[Rob0729]

It really doesn't. Look at the numbers throwing out that game entirely...by quarter through the other nine games:

Pats score 61, 90, 25, 55

Opponents scores stay the same, naturally, because Tenn. was shut-out:

27, 52, 37, 45

What you could do is focus the discussion at bit more, as Mayo did a good job with--arguably the Pats' primary problem is 3rd quarter offense.

I pointed out one game. There are other situations if you go through the games individually.

Mayo also pointed out the Tampa game second half being irrelevant.

Against the Bills, the Pats scored more in the second half (15 points with two failed two point conversions) than they did the first (10 points).

They scored 13 points vs. the Falcons in both halves. And the Pats won by more than two TDs.

Against, the Ravens, they scored 17 points in the first half and 10 points in the second which isn't a huge disparity.

Against Miami, the Pats scored 16 points in the first half and 10 points in the second. Again not a huge disparity.

In the three losses, the disparity has been the greatest other than yesterday and the blow outs.

Again, I still think this whole discussion is a bit overblown. In several games, there is a TD or less difference in the points scored in the first vs. second half. I don't think that is enough to be alarmed about. It is a concerned that needs to be fixed, but it doesn't deserve all the attention it has been getting the last 24 hours.

 

[aluminum seats]

The jets never came within 10 points. The pats held the ball for 21 minutes in the 2nd half.

How is that "not controlling the half"

Yes they did. The score was 24-14 and the Jets got the ball to midfield before Sanchez' suckitude kicked in.

 

[The Dynasty]

You may remember that, but its never been the case. Maroney has consistently been in the top 10 in the league in success rate


The statistics show otherwise. Morris gets stopped in the backfield a ton. Taylor was terrible last year, and theres just not enough carries this year to say anything about him.

I believe this was after week 3...

According to Mike Reiss' blog:
The breakdown of negative runs:

Laurence Maroney -- 7 in 27 attempts
Fred Taylor -- 2 in 45 attempts
Sammy Morris -- 2 in 13 attempts
Kevin Faulk -- 1 in 16 attempts

I will agree that Maroney has definitely improved on this, but I just wanted to show you that he struggled with this at the beginning of the year.

 

[aluminum seats]

Again, I still think this whole discussion is a bit overblown. In several games, there is a TD or less difference in the points scored in the first vs. second half. I don't think that is enough to be alarmed about. It is a concerned that needs to be fixed, but it doesn't deserve all the attention it has been getting the last 24 hours.

I don't know about how much attention it's getting one way or the other. It's just something I was thinking about and thought worthy of discussion.

 

[Rob0729]

Yes they did. The score was 24-14 and the Jets got the ball to midfield before Sanchez' suckitude kicked in.

I think Synovia meant the Pats never had less than a 10 point lead in the game.

 

[Patspsycho]

Look at some the situations. The Pats scored five TDs vs. the Titans in the second quarter and then took Brady out of the game in the second half. The Pats are up 45-0 at half time in that game. They score 14 more points the rest of the game with Hoyer at QB for most of the second half. That skews the data quite a bit.

I'm also looking at situations where we almost never score in the 3rd quarter. That is something you cannot overlook, manipulate, or discount.

 

[Kontradiction]

As of right now, I think it's more of a concern than a problem, if that makes sense. The second half offense, particularly in the last two games, has stalled. Yesterday, it produced 7 points. However, I have a feeling that this is because of the injuries to the O-Line. In the last two games the offense's undoing on the vast majority of their drives were because a slew of defenders were in Brady's face as he completed the third step in his dropback, much like the Super Bowl. Ryan even said yesterday that his defense didn't try to pressure Brady nearly as much in the first half as it did in the second half. If it did, this game would have been MUCH closer (we still would have won thanks to the Sanchize though).

In short, these offensive problems are fixed when Light and Neal return to the line-up. I blame the early season Jets loss on Brady not being fully recovered and the Broncos loss as being a mixture of the same excuse for Brady and just bad defense. The defense seemed to have fixed itself yesterday. Brady is obviously back, but cannot complete throws on his back. When Light and Neal return, this offense should roll for the entire 60 minutes.

 

[Synovia]

I believe this was after week 3...

According to Mike Reiss' blog:
The breakdown of negative runs:

Laurence Maroney -- 7 in 27 attempts
Fred Taylor -- 2 in 45 attempts
Sammy Morris -- 2 in 13 attempts
Kevin Faulk -- 1 in 16 attempts
.

Thats not struggling.

Seriously. Thats pretty much average, especially when the sample size is so small as to be useless. Most running backs in the NFL have negative carries on 30-40% of their carries.

 

[Rob0729]

I'm also looking at situations where we almost never score in the 3rd quarter. That is something you cannot overlook, manipulate, or discount.

I agree with Mayo and you that there may be a third quarter problem, but the Pats don't have so much of a second half problem all together.

 

[Synovia]

However, I have a feeling that this is because of the injuries to the O-Line.

Definitely. Aside from one terrific (although probably illegal) block on a screen, Levoir looked terrible. Connoly also got abused a couple of times.

 

[Kontradiction]

Definitely. Aside from one terrific (although probably illegal) block on a screen, Levoir looked terrible. Connoly also got abused a couple of times.

Kaczur also looks like a shell of himself when Neal is out of the line-up. His play stands to improve with Neal back. I do have to give him props for gutting it out through what looked like a badly torn ACL yesterday. He didn't even leave the game for a minute. Guy's a trooper.