Do the Pats have a second half problem?

[aluminum seats]

The Pats had an easy victory over a mediocre team yesterday, which is nice and was needed. What is somewhat troubling is the fact that the Pats weren’t nearly as impressive in the second half, playing the Jets to a tie of 7-7.

In fact, the Pats 1st & 2nd half splits this year are pretty stark. They’ve been ahead at halftime every game this year except for opening day against the Bills. Conversely, their second half record is 5-4-1.

The quarter-by-quarter breakdown is as follows:

1st Quarter: Pats 71, Opponents 27
2nd Quarter: Pats 125, Opponents 52
3rd Quarter Pats 39, Opponents 37
4th Quarter Pats 55, Opponents 45

OK, so while the Pats aren’t losing any quarters, the second half is looking like a different game than the first half. On the one hand, the defense has been fairly consistent. In fact, taking out the 4th quarter meltdown against the Colts, the defense has only given up 24 points in the 4th quarter during the first 10 games, an average of less than a FG during those other 9 games. Hard to argue with that.

The offense, meanwhile, is simply not putting up the same kind of numbers in the second half. This is partly to be expected—apart from the fluke of 2007, the game plan is typically to try and use up the clock with any kind of sizeable lead. Still 39 points in the 3rd quarter over 10 games (25 in 9 games apart from Tennessee) isn’t going to get it done, whether it’s the play calling, coming out flat, or something else. One of the characteristics of good coaching—and successful Pats teams this decade—has been winning the 2nd half.

Bottom line, the Pats will have to finish games strongly to succeed in the playoffs, and I don’t think the confidence is there yet they will do that.

 

[ForThoseAboutToRock]

I'll buy into this. I'm not sure what it is all about, but they definitely haven't been confidence inspiring in the 4th Q lately. I guess they're probably just coming back to the league norm - we're just used to them taking halftime leads to the bank in previous years.

 

[DarrylS]

The pats have a margin of victory of +126... second in the league to the Saints +165...

With that being articulated, it is difficult to maintain the defensive intensity for 60 minutes.... when they take the lead, they tend to play a little softer..

 

[PatsSox363804]

You have to take the Tennessee game into account but it's only one game, and yes we do have a second half problem, it's clear as day.

 

[DarrylS]

I guess there is a need to complain about something...

 

[PatsSox363804]

I guess there is a need to complain about something...

It's a concern when the team that has done it to us twice now in the past 3 seasons is the one we'll most likely have to beat in the playoffs. Winning that game would have been huge, we'd be one game out of the first seed with a tie breaker. Instead we lose and we have these lingering questions. I don't think it's complaining but it is a cause for some concern going forward. Hopefully we stomp the crap out of NO this Monday and remove any lingering doubts about our teams ability to close out a good team.

 

[Modest]

Maybe Im off base but I believe atleast some of it can be attributed to predictable play calling. That makes 2nd half adjustments for opposing teams much simpler.

 

[The Dynasty]

Maybe Im off base but I believe atleast some of it can be attributed to predictable play calling. That makes 2nd half adjustments for opposing teams much simpler.

I think its the lack of a running game which is the cause for our 2nd half woes. We have been trying to have long sustained drives, by buring clock, but we dont have the running game to do that so that is the cause for our 2nd half woes. I think once we get Morris, Taylor, Neal and Light back our running game will improve and we can now put games away in the 2nd half but having long drives that eat up a ton of time and punch it in the end zone.

 

[Rob0729]

A lot of this is overrated. We discount the margin of victory of the Pats because of Tennessee, but we don't discount their second half production in that game when Brady was pulled after the first drive of the third quarter? People are complaining about the second half defense yesterday eventhough after they gave up a TD on the Jets first drive, they forced a punt and had three turnovers. Even last week, the Pats controlled the game for three and a half quarters and got gassed in the end. It wasn't like the Pats totally collapsed in the second half.

Yes, there are things to be concerned about, but I think people are putting too much emphasis on this. I am not saying that it isn't something the Pats have to address, but it isn't as bad as some make it.

 

[SVN]

its just uncanny how they come out with a very creative off and def game plan and start fast usually but by the 2nd half once the opponent adjusts ,they start to degrade a little bit.Very un patriot like .maybe they miss some of those coaches gone by.

 

[Modest]

Has there been ANY news on when Taylor and Morris might return? ************.

 

[The Dynasty]

A lot of this is overrated. We discount the margin of victory of the Pats because of Tennessee, but we don't discount their second half production in that game when Brady was pulled after the first drive of the third quarter? People are complaining about the second half defense yesterday eventhough after they gave up a TD on the Jets first drive, they forced a punt and had three turnovers. Even last week, the Pats controlled the game for three and a half quarters and got gassed in the end. It wasn't like the Pats totally collapsed in the second half.

Yes, there are things to be concerned about, but I think people are putting too much emphasis on this. I am not saying that it isn't something the Pats have to address, but it isn't as bad as some make it.

Seems like we have agreed a lot on this subject. All of this is overrated. The margin of victory is definitely a bit high because of the Tenn game, but you're right Brady played 1 series in the 2nd half, it could have been worse. The D yesterday I thought played well the whole game, even on the drive that the Jets scored a TD. They went for it on 4th and 1 on their own 45, and I though the TD was just a nice pass and catch, nothing you can really do. I was very pleased with the defense. Last week vs the Colts, you could say we dominated the first 3 quarters, but we just didnt know how to finish. We're a young defense and we're learning. We didnt finish vs the Colts and I think the D definitely learned from it and wont happen again.

Like you said, there are things to be concerned about, but these things are easily fixable. Things will change when we get some of our offensive players back. People dont realize how many injuries we have had to deal with this year, it seems like we have 1 major contributor get hurt every game. It's not an excuse, its just saying that you cant expect us to be at our best when we arent playing with all of our starters.

 

[DarrylS]

It's a concern when the team that has done it to us twice now in the past 3 seasons is the one we'll most likely have to beat in the playoffs. Winning that game would have been huge, we'd be one game out of the first seed with a tie breaker. Instead we lose and we have these lingering questions. I don't think it's complaining but it is a cause for some concern going forward. Hopefully we stomp the crap out of NO this Monday and remove any lingering doubts about our teams ability to close out a good team.

There are many things that cause concern on this or any team... but in reality in the end as long as their is a W.. it really does not matter.. Indy came back big time, and when that machine gets going it is very difficult to stop...

Maybe I have been a Pats Fan for too long, that much of this stuff sounds like whining to this fan... reminds me of the occasional Hansen is a bust thread, or we need to sack the QB more or the obligatory we need a running team to win this division thread...

The reality is that we have about the 3 or 4th rated O, a top 5 Defense.. and a margin of victory second only to the Saints... things are pretty good.

 

[Synovia]

The Pats had an easy victory over a mediocre team yesterday, which is nice and was needed. What is somewhat troubling is the fact that the Pats weren’t nearly as impressive in the second half, playing the Jets to a tie of 7-7.

When you're up by 3 scores going into the 2nd half, 7-7 isn't a tie.

 

[Synovia]

I think its the lack of a running game which is the cause for our 2nd half woes.

Running game looked fine in the 2nd half yesterday.

 

[Patspsycho]

A lot of this is overrated. We discount the margin of victory of the Pats because of Tennessee, but we don't discount their second half production in that game when Brady was pulled after the first drive of the third quarter? People are complaining about the second half defense yesterday eventhough after they gave up a TD on the Jets first drive, they forced a punt and had three turnovers. Even last week, the Pats controlled the game for three and a half quarters and got gassed in the end. It wasn't like the Pats totally collapsed in the second half.

Yes, there are things to be concerned about, but I think people are putting too much emphasis on this. I am not saying that it isn't something the Pats have to address, but it isn't as bad as some make it.

I don't think going from #1 scoring in the first half to #14 scoring in the 2nd half is overrated. Prior to this season we have been 63-1 when ahead at the first half or thereabout, and this season, we've lost 2 of 10 games while ahead.

There definitely is something there, that has to be dealt with. It's hard to put a finger on it, but it is enough of an issue to warrant concern.

 

[The Dynasty]

Running game looked fine in the 2nd half yesterday.

Its better what we have seen, but it isnt a good running game. A good running game is when you can run the ball and consistantly get 4 or 5 yards so you can get 1st downs by just running the ball. We couldnt really do that yesterday, although Maroney ran hard and looked good, it just wasnt dominating.

 

[RobertWeathers]

The stat that blew me away was that the team is 66-1 when leading at 1/2 time and 5-3 this year. Sheesh.

The common threads I've seen in the 3 losses are...

-Crappy, conservative playcalling in the 2nd 1/2
-Crappy offensive execution.
-Defense no comming up with key stops/big plays.

 

[Synovia]

Its better what we have seen, but it isnt a good running game. A good running game is when you can run the ball and consistantly get 4 or 5 yards so you can get 1st downs by just running the ball. We couldnt really do that yesterday, although Maroney ran hard and looked good, it just wasnt dominating.

Then nobody in the NFL has a good running game.

 

[Synovia]

I don't think going from #1 scoring in the first half to #14 scoring in the 2nd half is overrated.

I do. Do you really expect a team thats up 49-0 at the half to score just as many points in the 2nd half? How about 24-7? Theres no need to go out and beat teams by 60 points. You score enough to put the game away, and then you kill the clock.