Lombardi's Diner Morning News: Draft Talk

[BPF]

Great points here by Lombardi:
The National Football Post | Diner Morning News: Draft Talk

....The top of the draft is all about offensive and defensive linemen and quarterbacks. If you’re reading a mock draft (pay attention, Wes Bunting) and there are too many wide receivers in the first round (more than five), then it’s a bad draft. Receivers will slip, linebackers who do not play on third down will slip, and tight ends will slip.

To help you along, here’s my set of basic rules that I developed for my mock drafts:

1. If the team and the player are always the same, then the chances of that player going there are zero. Think outside the box. Remember, misinformation is key.



2. Running backs tend to slip. Since 2001, 19 backs have been picked in the first round, six in the top 10, and three were top 10 picks in 2005. Backs have short careers in the NFL; picking one in the first round is a huge investment.



3. If the mock you’re reading does not have six DL in the first round, stop reading it. Defensive linemen will go quickly. You have to work defensive and offensive linemen heavily in the first round.



4. After the 10th pick in the first round, it’s all about how well you know “what the team needs.” Study team needs and put the player in the spot that fits those specific needs.



5. The Giants, Raiders, Dolphins, Jaguars, Cowboys and Packers are size/speed teams. They will pick players that fit the profile for the position.

....

 

[patchick]

Love Lombardi (and I'm certainly on record against WRs going high), but this statement makes no sense:

"The Lions cannot make a mistake with this top pick as they also have the 20th overall pick in the first round courtesy of the Roy Williams trade. Therefore, cashing in on this pick is critical"

Huh? Having a 2nd #1 makes the first pick more vital to get right? Isn't that totally backwards?

 

[BPF]

Love Lombardi (and I'm certainly on record against WRs going high), but this statement makes no sense:

"The Lions cannot make a mistake with this top pick as they also have the 20th overall pick in the first round courtesy of the Roy Williams trade. Therefore, cashing in on this pick is critical"

Huh? Having a 2nd #1 makes the first pick more vital to get right? Isn't that totally backwards?

I think he means money wise it would be disastrous if they missed on any of these picks.

 

[patchick]

I think he means money wise it would be disastrous if they missed on any of these picks.

Really? There isn't a word about money in the entire column. Besides, cap room isn't a problem for the Lions.

His main point, though -- that much more emphasis should be placed on OT & DL/pass rushers in mocks -- seems right on to me. I tend not to trust mocks where William Beatty is still around at #34 and Jarron Gilbert at #58.

 

[BPF]

Really? There isn't a word about money in the entire column. Besides, cap room isn't a problem for the Lions.

His main point, though -- that much more emphasis should be placed on OT & DL/pass rushers in mocks -- seems right on to me. I tend not to trust mocks where William Beatty is still around at #34 and Jarron Gilbert at #58.

Nothing to do w/cap room. The 1st pick w/cost them $30-35 mil in guaranteed money. A miss would set them back for another 5 yrs. Lombardi is looking at it from an NFL exec perspective.

I feel the same when I see Tyson Jackson avail into the 2nd Rd. Ridiculous.

 

[VrabelMayeWin]

Love Lombardi (and I'm certainly on record against WRs going high), but this statement makes no sense:

"The Lions cannot make a mistake with this top pick as they also have the 20th overall pick in the first round courtesy of the Roy Williams trade. Therefore, cashing in on this pick is critical"

Huh? Having a 2nd #1 makes the first pick more vital to get right? Isn't that totally backwards?

I think he just worded it badly and was trying to say that having two #1 picks this year, the #1 pick and a pick they traded a former #1 for, they have to hit on this draft. They've loaded up for this draft with these picks and they can't blow it.

 

[bakes781]

I think the influence of the 3-4 defenses is also becoming more and more important. Other than BJ Raji there hasn't been mention of any DT prospects in the 1st round. Yet there are about a half dozen OLB/DE tweeners for the 3-4 being projected to go mid-late 1st.

 

[patchick]

I think he just worded it badly and was trying to say that having two #1 picks this year, the #1 pick and a pick they traded a former #1 for, they have to hit on this draft. They've loaded up for this draft with these picks and they can't blow it.

Yeah, it certainly makes more sense talking about this draft as a whole. Because regardless of whether you're talking about cash outlays or opportunity costs, having a second shot in the top 20 can only make the #1 less critical.

 

[Ochmed Jones]

I feel the same when I see Tyson Jackson avail into the 2nd Rd. Ridiculous.

I would love for BB to pick Jackson at #23. But I doubt he lasts that long.

PS: I would not be surprised to see BB sign DE Bobby Greenwood as an UDFA.