Should fans realize O'Connel is Cassel 2.0 & Matt is awesome trade bait?

[Box_O_Rocks]

wouldn't it be an enormous waste of cap space for 2009 if the Pats were to just trade him for Picks, considering they would have had to sign him to a large one-year contract?

You confuse me...if the Pats Franchise and Trade Cassel, they trade his contract, which clears their books since they haven't paid him any guaranteed money up front.

 

[Wildo7]

You confuse me...if the Pats Franchise and Trade Cassel, they trade his contract, which clears their books since they haven't paid him any guaranteed money up front.

Yeah it clears their books, but they would have had to make $11 million in space available in order to tag him to begin with. They can't violate the cap and say "$11 million of it doesn't count because we're going to trade him." I agree that AFTER he is traded there would be an additional $11 million in empty cap space, but where is that money going to be spent? Unless they are receiving a currently active player in the trade with a large contract, they are going to have 11$ million in unused cap for 2009. Unless of course I have a shoddy understanding of this, which is a distinct possibilty.

 

[Box_O_Rocks]

why would anyone trade for him if they get him on the FA market in the spring?

Those advocating trade are, for the most part, doing so after the Pats have presumably Franchised Mattyice thus reasserting control of his market.

 

[Wildo7]

Those advocating trade are, for the most part, doing so after the Pats have presumably Franchised Mattyice thus reasserting control of his market.

I still don't see how they can risk doing that considering they'd have 11$ million in empty space with nobody to spend it on and if there's a chance no other team is willing to pay him 11$ million for 2009.

 

[sieglo]

Aren't we looking at an uncapped year anyway? So who cares? LOL.

 

[ctpatsfan77]

I still don't see how they can risk doing that considering they'd have 11$ million in empty space with nobody to spend it on and if there's a chance no other team is willing to pay him 11$ million for 2009.

11$ million?

Seriously, though, I can think of a few folks that they might be able to use that $11M on (e.g., Vince Wilfork, Richard Seymour, Ellis Hobbs, David Thomas, Stephen Gostkowski, etc.).

Aren't we looking at an uncapped year anyway? So who cares? LOL.

2010 is scheduled to be uncapped, but the salary cap is alive and illin' until then.

 

[Wildo7]

11$ million?

Seriously, though, I can think of a few folks that they might be able to use that $11M on (e.g., Vince Wilfork, Richard Seymour, Ellis Hobbs, David Thomas, Stephen Gostkowski, etc.).



2010 is scheduled to be uncapped, but the salary cap is alive and illin' until then.

11$ million is what the Pats would have to pay him for next year. When they tag him, they'd have to make sure that ALL of the other contracts are under the cap. Since they won't be able to ask Wilfork or whoever to renegotiate their contracts on the assumption that Cassel will leave, they'll have all of their existing contracts (minus whoever they had to cut to free up 11 million in the first place) plus an extra $11 million to spend on nobody. Just giving it to Wilfork or someone for the sake of it does nothing, since it's cap space for 2009 only, not beyond that. You'd be basically getting rid of 11$ million dollars worth of contracts and players inorder to apply the tag and replacing it with nothing.

 

[Box_O_Rocks]

Yeah it clears their books, but they would have had to make $11 million in space available in order to tag him to begin with. They can't violate the cap and say "$11 million of it doesn't count because we're going to trade him." I agree that AFTER he is traded there would be an additional $11 million in empty cap space, but where is that money going to be spent? Unless they are receiving a currently active player in the trade with a large contract, they are going to have 11$ million in unused cap for 2009. Unless of course I have a shoddy understanding of this, which is a distinct possibilty.

I believe Miguel has projected Franchise Tag value for a QB to be in the $14 million range.

The Franchise Tag is applied before Free Agency or the Trade window is opened. Teams seriously interested in trading for Matt would begin exploring the possibility fairly early - the reason being they would want to get him into their offseason program as early as possible to begin training him on their playbook and giving him time to develop relationships with his fellow offensive teammates and his new coaches. That $14 million of cap space would most likely be available early enough for the Pats to take full advantage of it - the Pats have 7 "starters" (counting Gostkowski, but excluding older veterans like Bru, Vrabes, and Faulk) and at least 3 key role players entering Free Agency after the 2009 season.

The Pats have two reasons to Franchise Tag Cassel:
- Tommy's rehab is going slower than hoped and there is a real risk he may not be ready for the start of the 2009 Regular Season (implicit in this is a belief that neither O'Connell or Gutierrez would be ready to serve if called upon).
- Tommy's rehab is going well and the market for Mattyice is strong enough they can be assured of a trade occuring early enough to receive significant value above and beyond any cap inconvenience.

The bottom line for fans: BB and SP know their jobs and will make their decision based on what's best for the team. All our speculation is just a variety of guesses, some more reasonable than others. If they Franchise Mattyice, it's because they have reason to believe they will get their money's worth out of that move - either on the playing field or in the NFL marketplace.

 

[Box_O_Rocks]

11$ million is what the Pats would have to pay him for next year. When they tag him, they'd have to make sure that ALL of the other contracts are under the cap. Since they won't be able to ask Wilfork or whoever to renegotiate their contracts on the assumption that Cassel will leave, they'll have all of their existing contracts (minus whoever they had to cut to free up 11 million in the first place) plus an extra $11 million to spend on nobody. Just giving it to Wilfork or someone for the sake of it does nothing, since it's cap space for 2009 only, not beyond that. You'd be basically getting rid of 11$ million dollars worth of contracts and players inorder to apply the tag and replacing it with nothing.

They may have to reshuffle a few pennies, but that's been done before - no big deal.

 

[Wildo7]

I believe Miguel has projected Franchise Tag value for a QB to be in the $14 million range.

The Franchise Tag is applied before Free Agency or the Trade window is opened. Teams seriously interested in trading for Matt would begin exploring the possibility fairly early - the reason being they would want to get him into their offseason program as early as possible to begin training him on their playbook and giving him time to develop relationships with his fellow offensive teammates and his new coaches. That $14 million of cap space would most likely be available early enough for the Pats to take full advantage of it - the Pats have 7 "starters" (counting Gostkowski, but excluding older veterans like Bru, Vrabes, and Faulk) and at least 3 key role players entering Free Agency after the 2009 season.

The Pats have two reasons to Franchise Tag Cassel:
- Tommy's rehab is going slower than hoped and there is a real risk he may not be ready for the start of the 2009 Regular Season (implicit in this is a belief that neither O'Connell or Gutierrez would be ready to serve if called upon).
- Tommy's rehab is going well and the market for Mattyice is strong enough they can be assured of a trade occuring early enough to receive significant value above and beyond any cap inconvenience.

The bottom line for fans: BB and SP know their jobs and will make their decision based on what's best for the team. All our speculation is just a variety of guesses, some more reasonable than others. If they Franchise Mattyice, it's because they have reason to believe they will get their money's worth out of that move - either on the playing field or in the NFL marketplace.

I don't doubt that they will do what ever is best, but the only scenario I can see them franchising him is if they think he's going to have to fill in for Brady in some capacity, but I'm talking about the idea of "trade bait."

Speculating specifically about this, which we are allowed to do as fans, Cassel would have no incentive to tell the Pats "yeah franchise tag me and trade me and I'll agree to a long term contract with that team" when he can refuse and hit FA. No team is ever going to trade for a player worth $14 million dollars for ONE year without having a long term contract lined up, and his agent knows that the contract they offer in the trade is going to be less than what he could get if 4 or 5 teams would be competing for him.

 

[ctpatsfan77]

11$ million

Sorry. . . . just wondering about the odd punctuation.

 

[Box_O_Rocks]

I don't doubt that they will do what ever is best, but the only scenario I can see them franchising him is if they think he's going to have to fill in for Brady in some capacity, but I'm talking about the idea of "trade bait."

Speculating specifically about this, which we are allowed to do as fans, Cassel would have no incentive to tell the Pats "yeah franchise tag me and trade me and I'll agree to a long term contract with that team" when he can refuse and hit FA. No team is ever going to trade for a player worth $14 million dollars for ONE year without having a long term contract lined up, and his agent knows that the contract they offer in the trade is going to be less than what he could get if 4 or 5 teams would be competing for him.

I'm sorry, how is Cassel allowed to "refuse and hit FA?"

The first question you need to answer - what does Matt Cassel want?
- a. To start.
- b. To remain a reserve.
- c. To retire.

As long as its "a," you can be reasonably certain he will wlecome a trade after being Franchised.

 

[Wildo7]

I'm sorry, how is Cassel allowed to "refuse and hit FA?"

The first question you need to answer - what does Matt Cassel want?
- a. To start.
- b. To remain a reserve.
- c. To retire.

As long as its "a," you can be reasonably certain he will wlecome a trade after being Franchised.

d. - to get the best contract he can get.

when the Pats contact the Vikings they say, "if we agree to get Cassel to sign a contract with you, we'll then tag him and trade him to you for X." They then would have to go to Cassel and say, "Matt, we're going to tag you and trade you to the Vikings if you agree to sign a long term contract with them." What are the chances that Cassel's agent believes the Vikings contract offer is going to be anywhere near what he can get if he refuses and the Pats have to release him?

Two unique factors here:

1) Nobody believes under this scenario that the Pats actually intend on keeping and paying Cassel for $14 million for a year so if he refuses, he knows he's going to likely be released.

2) Whatever the Vikings offer Cassel in terms of a long term contract is going to be minus whatever they would have to give up to the Patriots in order to get him. Since Cassel receives no direct value from that, the Vikings would have to give up some value to the Patriots and then still give him a contract which isn't markedly lower than a realistic estimate for what they would have to get him if he went to FA.

So the Vikings are going to say to themselves, "what is the additional value that we are willing to give up in order to keep him from hitting FA?" If he hits FA, they fear they might have to pay him more so just in case, they are willing to give up the additional picks to the Pats AND give him a contract that's close to what Cassel's agent thinks he can get in FA? I really doubt it.

That is if they're even allowed to collude before hand. I'm not saying they aren't but with Tebucky, his franchise tag wasn't so monstrous that they couldn't afford to keep him if they had to so I don't know if they had the trade worked out before hand.

 

[Deus Irae]

d. - to get the best contract he can get.

when the Pats contact the Vikings they say, "if we agree to get Cassel to sign a contract with you, we'll then tag him and trade him to you for X." They then would have to go to Cassel and say, "Matt, we're going to tag you and trade you to the Vikings if you agree to sign a long term contract with them." What are the chances that Cassel's agent believes the Vikings contract offer is going to be anywhere near what he can get if he refuses and the Pats have to release him?

Two unique factors here:

1) Nobody believes under this scenario that the Pats actually intend on keeping and paying Cassel for $14 million for a year so if he refuses, he knows he's going to likely be released.

2) Whatever the Vikings offer Cassel in terms of a long term contract is going to be minus whatever they would have to give up to the Patriots in order to get him. Since Cassel receives no direct value from that, the Vikings would have to give up some value to the Patriots and then still give him a contract which isn't markedly lower than a realistic estimate for what they would have to get him if he went to FA.

So the Vikings are going to say to themselves, "what is the additional value that we are willing to give up in order to keep him from hitting FA?" If he hits FA, they fear they might have to pay him more so just in case, they are willing to give up the additional picks to the Pats AND give him a contract that's close to what Cassel's agent thinks he can get in FA? I really doubt it.

That is if they're even allowed to collude before hand. I'm not saying they aren't but with Tebucky, his franchise tag wasn't so monstrous that they couldn't afford to keep him if they had to so I don't know if they had the trade worked out before hand.

You only have to go back to Jared Allen last season....

 

[Wildo7]

You only have to go back to Jared Allen last season....

what happened with that? They agreed on a trade before they tagged him? I'm asking because I really don't know.

 

[Deus Irae]

what happened with that? They agreed on a trade before they tagged him? I'm asking because I really don't know.

SignOnSanDiego.com > Sports -- Sack leader Allen traded to Vikings

 

[Wildo7]

SignOnSanDiego.com > Sports -- Sack leader Allen traded to Vikings

Yeah but it doesn't say anything in that article about the trade being agreed upon BEFORE the tag was applied. The Chiefs could have presumably afforded to keep him for a year. The difference here is that the Pats can't afford to pay Cassel $14 million for one year when Brady gets back so they have to tag him being 100% sure he's going to agree to the terms of the trade.

 

[Deus Irae]

Yeah but it doesn't say anything in that article about the trade being agreed upon BEFORE the tag was applied. The Chiefs could have presumably afforded to keep him for a year. The difference here is that the Pats can't afford to pay Cassel $14 million for one year when Brady gets back so they have to tag him being 100% sure he's going to agree to the terms of the trade.

You're making a claim when you talk about what the team can or can't afford, not a factual statement. Miguel has the team with over $24 million below the cap next season. The reality of the situation, at least as reflected by Miguel's numbers at the moment, seems to show that the team could, in fact, afford to make the move:

http://www.patscap.com/futureyears.html

 

[Wildo7]

You're making a claim when you talk about what the team can or can't afford, not a factual statement. Miguel has the team with over $24 million below the cap next season. The reality of the situation, at least as reflected by Miguel's numbers at the moment, seems to show that the team could, in fact, afford to make the move:

http://www.patscap.com/futureyears.html

Ok fair enough. But I still don't see why knowing he's not risking injury by being a backup QB, Cassel would agree to sign with another team when he can wait it out and hit FA next year. Jared Allen was still going to be playing, so he'd want a long term contract tied up right away. Even if the Pats can technically afford him, it just seems very unlikely to me that if you called their bluff, they'd sit on Cassel for a year at $14m.

 

[Deus Irae]

Ok fair enough. But I still don't see why knowing he's not risking injury by being a backup QB, Cassel would agree to sign with another team when he can wait it out and hit FA next year. Jared Allen was still going to be playing, so he'd want a long term contract tied up right away. Even if the Pats can technically afford him, it just seems very unlikely to me that if you called their bluff, they'd sit on Cassel for a year at $14m.

Cassel can financially afford to sit out a season, but his career would be severely harmed if he did so. He doesn't have a lengthy resumé and teams would be dealing with a one year player who had gone another year without starting. Toss in the uncertainty of the CBA, and it's one hell of a gamble for Cassel to take.