Defense

[JSn]

I'm just chiming in to say I think our coaching and scheming was 60% of what made Asante great. Having studied him and knowing the team they're playing with, I expect our secondary to do very well this year and if O'Neal plays a lot, you can bank on a good number of int's. He's still athletic and smart. If our front gets good pressure there will be tons of leather bubbles floating over the field for those guys to pop.

 

[PATRIOT64]

I'm just chiming in to say I think our coaching and scheming was 60% of what made Asante great. Having studied him and knowing the team they're playing with, I expect our secondary to do very well this year and if O'Neal plays a lot, you can bank on a good number of int's. He's still athletic and smart. If our front gets good pressure there will be tons of leather bubbles floating over the field for those guys to pop.

I read an amusing (but not so funny if you are a pats fan) thing about O'Neal

The article said he is still a decent player who can help a team but Deltha never saw a pump fake he didn't like - Now thats funny!

 

[JSn]

I read an amusing (but not so funny if you are a pats fan) thing about O'Neal

The article said he is still a decent player who can help a team but Deltha never saw a pump fake he didn't like - Now thats funny!

Hehe. I'll remember that next time I face him in Madden... oh wait, I won't now.

 

[D-cleater]

I am going to be the first one to say this, and anyone who would like to can bookmark this and remind me of it whenever you want.
THE DEFENSE WILL BE BETTER THAN IT WAS LAST YEAR.
I also expect that we will break the team record for fewest points allowed, which we have hovered close to breaking in many of BBs years.

We have gotten faster, and younger. We have added Mayo, Wheatley, Sanders, ONeal, Wilhite, Crable.
What have we subracted?
Seau. In his prime thats a loss, at this stage of his career, it is not.
Samuel. OK, we lost a starter.
Colvin. Not really a loss since we didn't have him at the end, and were better with Thomas outside.
Gay. I do not believe that a player could make our roster who would perform worse than Randal Gay did in the SB.

I see improvement, I see more speed, I see a healthy Seymour, a better group of LBs including depth, I see Meriwhether upgrading speed and play at safety with a much larger role, and I see 2 strong rookies, PLUS 2 experienced vets to fill the role of Asante Samuel in playing TEAM DEFENSE.
If we think losing just one player can have the impact on this defense that it may have on another, then we have totally missed the point that BB builds an entire system around playing team defense, with less impact, good or bad, possible from any one player.

Not really such a bold prediction given the easier schedule we have this year. I personally do not think they will set any records for points allowed, and expect them to be solid but not spectacular. If the rookie class makes as much as an impact as you predict, I think 2009 is the year we can start predicting broken records. I think this is a huge development year for the defense. Here's how I see it:

• Warren returns to PB form and either he or Wilfork make the PB. However, I think the combination of Seymour/Thomas is slightly overrated by the average Pats fan. Teams ran effectively on the weakside at various times last year. Seymour is still one of the best in the game, but he's been injured 4 of the last 5 years and is not playing at his pre-injury/pre contract levels. I put zero stock in how he looks in pre-season, just like I did with those who looked bad.

• 
  Thomas may be an ugrade over colvin, but IMO we've never fully replaced Willie's productivity and clutch play. If we are just comparing the D from this year to last, I predict the same or slightly less production from the front 5 Believe it or not, I see Crable as having the biggest impact in terms of comparing this year to last, just for the opportunity to spell Vrabel with some competency. With Colvin and Seau gone, we are always one play away from Pierre Woods being a full time starter and that his a HUGE weakness.

• 
  Seau's loss in particular is not insignificant. players age differently - I see him, right now, as a more effective ILB than Bruschi even though he's older. I'll take the rookie talent and depth in exchange, but the old adage about this system is that it takes a long time for rookies to get comfortable in the system.
  
  The long time posters in this forum ( you know who you are) have long maintained that BB does not draft MLB's to play in this system....BB looks for experienced vets to fill the ILB role... takes a rookie too long to develop..... Now we get to see , from Week 1, whether this plays out.
  
  I'm optimistic, but I sense some of us are whistling through the graveyard just a tad here.

• 
  I am bullish on the secondary. I didn't get a good look at Wilhite in preseason, but I accept the two of them are going to get burnt, they are going to make mistakes, but at the end of the day I'm confident in a BB 2nd rd corner. By *end of season*, I think the CB position will be getting the job done and can take us into the playoffs, where they will again take thier lumps. Regardless, I'm buying low.
  
  Safety I agree we are better with Merriweather in his second year, but Rodney is a year older. Unless you can confirm BM is our starting FS on first down, I'm holding.
  

Some of the wildcards: easier schedule, the addition of dom capers , and a bigger commitment to sustained drives rather than the quick hit all weigh in favor of the D having a good year, but IMO your expectations are incredibly optimistic. I hold this defense to a high standard as well, but they were great last year. I don't see such a dramatic improvement. They are good enough for us to go deep into the playoffs and compete for a championship, and thats enough for me.

But Vrable, Bruschi, and Harrison *WILL* start to wear down as the season goes. They've played into January every year since 2002. It's inevitable that they show some weakness and how effective the rookies are will determine how much it shows

 

[Ring 6]

Not really such a bold prediction given the easier schedule we have this year. I personally do not think they will set any records for points allowed, and expect them to be solid but not spectacular. If the rookie class makes as much as an impact as you predict, I think 2009 is the year we can start predicting broken records. I think this is a huge development year for the defense. Here's how I see it:

• Warren returns to PB form and either he or Wilfork make the PB. However, I think the combination of Seymour/Thomas is slightly overrated by the average Pats fan. Teams ran effectively on the weakside at various times last year. Seymour is still one of the best in the game, but he's been injured 4 of the last 5 years and is not playing at his pre-injury/pre contract levels. I put zero stock in how he looks in pre-season, just like I did with those who looked bad.

• 
  Thomas may be an ugrade over colvin, but IMO we've never fully replaced Willie's productivity and clutch play. If we are just comparing the D from this year to last, I predict the same or slightly less production from the front 5 Believe it or not, I see Crable as having the biggest impact in terms of comparing this year to last, just for the opportunity to spell Vrabel with some competency. With Colvin and Seau gone, we are always one play away from Pierre Woods being a full time starter and that his a HUGE weakness.

• 
  Seau's loss in particular is not insignificant. players age differently - I see him, right now, as a more effective ILB than Bruschi even though he's older. I'll take the rookie talent and depth in exchange, but the old adage about this system is that it takes a long time for rookies to get comfortable in the system.
  
  The long time posters in this forum ( you know who you are) have long maintained that BB does not draft MLB's to play in this system....BB looks for experienced vets to fill the ILB role... takes a rookie too long to develop..... Now we get to see , from Week 1, whether this plays out.
  
  I'm optimistic, but I sense some of us are whistling through the graveyard just a tad here.

• 
  I am bullish on the secondary. I didn't get a good look at Wilhite in preseason, but I accept the two of them are going to get burnt, they are going to make mistakes, but at the end of the day I'm confident in a BB 2nd rd corner. By *end of season*, I think the CB position will be getting the job done and can take us into the playoffs, where they will again take thier lumps. Regardless, I'm buying low.
  
  Safety I agree we are better with Merriweather in his second year, but Rodney is a year older. Unless you can confirm BM is our starting FS on first down, I'm holding.
  

Some of the wildcards: easier schedule, the addition of dom capers , and a bigger commitment to sustained drives rather than the quick hit all weigh in favor of the D having a good year, but IMO your expectations are incredibly optimistic. I hold this defense to a high standard as well, but they were great last year. I don't see such a dramatic improvement. They are good enough for us to go deep into the playoffs and compete for a championship, and thats enough for me.

But Vrable, Bruschi, and Harrison *WILL* start to wear down as the season goes. They've played into January every year since 2002. It's inevitable that they show some weakness and how effective the rookies are will determine how much it shows

Honestly breaking the points allowed record isnt a real bold prediction because almost every year we are close to doing it. It wouldnt really be a big improvement, since we didnt miss it by a whole lot last year. It really was some hyperbole but the truth is our defense has been so good for so long, that its going to still be good either way.

 

[AllabouttheVinces]

Of all the dumb things people post, saying we "lost" this many sacks or this many INTs is the absolute dumbest.

If you add up all the turnovers we "lost" by players leaving over the years, it would surely run into the hundreds per game. We never did recover from losing Ray Clayborne and Mike Haynes.

We will get out share of turnovers this year, as we do most years.

Playmakers force turnovers. We lost the playmakers. Say what you will about Assante, but everyone will acknowledge that the guy was a ball hawk. So what we lost was 4 guys that were playmakers who forced more than half the turnovers in '07.

Remember, Law didn't start Wk1 of his rookie yr, Assante didn't, and either did Hobbs, Lawyer or Meriweather. At LB, BB has never as Pats coach started a rookie LB. So those of you who believe that starting a rookie LB and rookie CB Wk 1 is not a risk are taking a huge leap of faith. Personally, I think BB has sized up the schedule and decided that it will be OK to let these guys learn on the job, make their share of mistakes, and even perhaps cost a game or two. The schedule is that soft, the Pats will still win their share of games.

 

[emoney_33]

Playmakers force turnovers. We lost the playmakers. Say what you will about Assante, but everyone will acknowledge that the guy was a ball hawk. So what we lost was 4 guys that were playmakers who forced more than half the turnovers in '07.

It's not as if Samuel was playing on an island by himself locking down great receivers and getting picks. The patriots schemed around Samuel's route jumping tendencies to put him in position to get those picks as well as give some protection for when his risk did not work out.

Remember, Law didn't start Wk1 of his rookie yr, Assante didn't, and either did Hobbs, Lawyer or Meriweather. At LB, BB has never as Pats coach started a rookie LB. So those of you who believe that starting a rookie LB and rookie CB Wk 1 is not a risk are taking a huge leap of faith.

BB has never selected a LB in the 1st, much less with the 10th pick...

Personally, I think BB has sized up the schedule and decided that it will be OK to let these guys learn on the job, make their share of mistakes, and even perhaps cost a game or two. The schedule is that soft, the Pats will still win their share of games.

Or they could just be the players that are best to play for the 2008 patriots compared to what we have and what was out there... BB is not the type of coach to play or not play anyone based on a PERCEIVED strength or weakness in the schedule. He plays the players that he feels will help the team the most. I don't understand why this is such a hard point for so many to understand.

 

[Ring 6]

Playmakers force turnovers. We lost the playmakers. Say what you will about Assante, but everyone will acknowledge that the guy was a ball hawk. So what we lost was 4 guys that were playmakers who forced more than half the turnovers in '07.

Remember, Law didn't start Wk1 of his rookie yr, Assante didn't, and either did Hobbs, Lawyer or Meriweather. At LB, BB has never as Pats coach started a rookie LB. So those of you who believe that starting a rookie LB and rookie CB Wk 1 is not a risk are taking a huge leap of faith. Personally, I think BB has sized up the schedule and decided that it will be OK to let these guys learn on the job, make their share of mistakes, and even perhaps cost a game or two. The schedule is that soft, the Pats will still win their share of games.

I find it ridiculous to call 39 year old Jr Seau a playmaker. I think anyone calling Colvin a 'playmaker' either never watched another decent OLB or doesnt understand what playmaking is. And to call Randall Gay a playmaker is laughable.

I also think that your depiction of BB as making decisions based upon looking at the schedule, calling it weak, and deciding that he will put players on the field that will cost him games because he can afford to lose them is 100% contradictory with what BB is about.
He will do what gives the team the best chance to win. The idea that since you disagree with his decision there must be an ulterior motive to prove that he really agrees with you but just wont show it, is insulting to me.

 

[PatsFan37]

I think anyone calling Colvin a 'playmaker' either never watched another decent OLB or doesnt understand what playmaking is.

A lot of people say that fans on this board begin to denigrate players the moment their lockers are empty. I'm beginning to think it's true.

Colvin was one of the league leaders in quarterback pressures, he has had 52-1/2 career sacks. He courageously came back from what could have been a career-ending hip fracture and left the Patriots because of another injury. He was a smart, savvy and athletic player.

He was absolutely a playmaker.

 

[D-cleater]

Honestly breaking the points allowed record isnt a real bold prediction because almost every year we are close to doing it. It wouldnt really be a big improvement, since we didnt miss it by a whole lot last year. It really was some hyperbole but the truth is our defense has been so good for so long, that its going to still be good either way.

Thats a good point, I didn't bother to look up the numbers.

Something that I will be looking for this year, and we probably won't see it the first few weeks, is whether the DB's start to use more press coverage, especially on 3rd down. I remember conversations here and i n the media speculating that the addition of Capers could possibly influence us to use a more attack-style defense, where we blitz more and use press coverage. I know Hobbs and Wheatley are both giving up a few inches and pounds to most receivers, but they are both competitive, scrappy players and I think it'd be worth giving the offense a different look on occasion.

 

[Ring 6]

A lot of people say that fans on this board begin to denigrate players the moment their lockers are empty. I'm beginning to think it's true.

Colvin was one of the league leaders in quarterback pressures, he has had 52-1/2 career sacks. He courageously came back from what could have been a career-ending hip fracture and left the Patriots because of another injury. He was a smart, savvy and athletic player.

He was absolutely a playmaker.

Being able to muster 7 sacks a year and being a playmaker are 2 very different things.
Colvin was not a bad OLB. I consistently gave him more credit than anyone else for his run defense.
But it is what it is, and Colvin simply never was a 'playmaker'. An OLB is SUPPOSED to get near the QB, thats his job. A playmaker makes special plays over and above what you would expect from the position.
I dispute your claim that he was 'one of the league leaders in QB pressures' because I saw Vrabel apply pressure at least twice as often, but please show me where you get that from. In any event 'QB pressure' is not part of being a playmaker, and getting an average or below average # of sacks for your postion doesnt make you a playmaker even if you add up the entire career to make the number look better.
Being injured and returning has absolutely no impact on the assessment of how well you did on the field, and 'smart, savvy, and athletic' are objective adjectives that should be able to translate into success on the field, and not have to be used to make a lack of it sound better.

 

[Ring 6]

Thats a good point, I didn't bother to look up the numbers.

Something that I will be looking for this year, and we probably won't see it the first few weeks, is whether the DB's start to use more press coverage, especially on 3rd down. I remember conversations here and i n the media speculating that the addition of Capers could possibly influence us to use a more attack-style defense, where we blitz more and use press coverage. I know Hobbs and Wheatley are both giving up a few inches and pounds to most receivers, but they are both competitive, scrappy players and I think it'd be worth giving the offense a different look on occasion.

The thing is we are, if anything, a conservative team. BB is among the most conservative in philosophy of all NFL HCs. (Now when he does get aggressive he is very aggressive, but he picks spot rarely and when he can least be hurt) Capers aggressiveness or conservativeness isnt going to dictate our philosophy BBs is.
Given that we are clearly superior to most of our opponents, conservative makes sense (if you are better you want to be conservative so you dont allow a lesser team to beat you when your aggressiveness backfires) but by the same token you can afford to make a few more mistakes being aggressive.

 

[AllabouttheVinces]

I find it ridiculous to call 39 year old Jr Seau a playmaker. I think anyone calling Colvin a 'playmaker' either never watched another decent OLB or doesnt understand what playmaking is. And to call Randall Gay a playmaker is laughable.

I also think that your depiction of BB as making decisions based upon looking at the schedule, calling it weak, and deciding that he will put players on the field that will cost him games because he can afford to lose them is 100% contradictory with what BB is about.
He will do what gives the team the best chance to win. The idea that since you disagree with his decision there must be an ulterior motive to prove that he really agrees with you but just wont show it, is insulting to me.

Wow, you've got to have a cup of decaf Andy. No one is insulting you.

Since you missed my point about allowing the rooks to learn on the job, let me try again. In building the team for '08, Beoli sized up the salary cap and upcoming signings like Wilfork, and decided that was the priority. No high profile free agents this yr. Knowing that they were going to let Stallworth, Seau, Colvin (injury), Samuel and Gay walk, they could have invested some $$ in vet FAs to replace them, but decided that wasn't priority 1.

Alexander and Woods, both originally UDFAs, are nice STers but NOT ready for prime time as a starter. So the first 3 draft picks were NEED picks. Mayo, Wheatley and Crable are quality players (we hope) who will take time to assimilate the complex Pats D.

If ever there was a year to allow rooks to learn on the job, this is it. The weakest schedule in the league (based on 07 records) affords the Pats the luxury of allowing rookie mistakes. Can we agree there will be rookie mistakes? As long as those mistakes aren't costly, BB's calculated plan to turn over the roster without killing the salary cap will be yet another brilliant move.

BB is starting rookies because they are the best available on the roster. That's different from saying best available. He could have taken the $5M of unspent cap $$ and brought in vets, but he's taking the long term view. I don't disagree with that vision. I just believe that losing 3 former Pro-Bowlers and 2 other key contributors is a loss of significant talent. That talent is now replaced by some very talented rookies who will make mistakes while learning on the job.

 

[AllabouttheVinces]

I find it ridiculous to call 39 year old Jr Seau a playmaker. I think anyone calling Colvin a 'playmaker' either never watched another decent OLB or doesnt understand what playmaking is. And to call Randall Gay a playmaker is laughable.

I also think that your depiction of BB as making decisions based upon looking at the schedule, calling it weak, and deciding that he will put players on the field that will cost him games because he can afford to lose them is 100% contradictory with what BB is about.
He will do what gives the team the best chance to win. The idea that since you disagree with his decision there must be an ulterior motive to prove that he really agrees with you but just wont show it, is insulting to me.

One other thing: If Samuel, Seau, Colvin and Gay weren't playmakers, why do I see their names in the AFC sack and INT leaders last year?

http://www.sportsline.com/nfl/stats/leaders/AFC/INT/2007/regular


You can't praise these guys when they're in red,white and blue then slam them when their laundry changes. That seems to be popular on this board.

You'll notice you don't see Deltha O'Neal on that list. We know that everyone threw on Cincy. Let's hope he just had an off year.

 

[PatsFan37]

Being able to muster 7 sacks a year and being a playmaker are 2 very different things.
Colvin was not a bad OLB. I consistently gave him more credit than anyone else for his run defense.
But it is what it is, and Colvin simply never was a 'playmaker'. An OLB is SUPPOSED to get near the QB, thats his job. A playmaker makes special plays over and above what you would expect from the position.
I dispute your claim that he was 'one of the league leaders in QB pressures' because I saw Vrabel apply pressure at least twice as often, but please show me where you get that from. In any event 'QB pressure' is not part of being a playmaker, and getting an average or below average # of sacks for your postion doesnt make you a playmaker even if you add up the entire career to make the number look better.
Being injured and returning has absolutely no impact on the assessment of how well you did on the field, and 'smart, savvy, and athletic' are objective adjectives that should be able to translate into success on the field, and not have to be used to make a lack of it sound better.

52-1/2 career sacks qualifies him as a playmaker. If he was still playing for the Pats, you'd be touting him as a reason the Pats D was going to set records for points allowed.

 

[patfanken]

WOW! a real live football discussion. I loved all 12 pages of it. Good stuff on all sides of this issue. My 2 cents:

1. I tend to agree with Andy for the most part. Although I believe that his vision of this defense will much more apparent come December than it will be in the first half of the season

2. The way BB runs his defense has a definite effect on how "dominant" it appears to the casual observer. Historically attacking D's like those of the Ravens, Bears, and Bucs will always appear to be more "dominant". A lot of NFL fans around the country are generally surprised to find that the Pats have been amongst the best teams recently in the all important points allowed category. We seem to give up so many 3rd down plays (especially this preseason) and yds between the 20's that the IMPRESSION we get is that the defense is soft.

Another surprise to most fans across the country is that the Pats are usually amongst the top teams in sacks. That's because it is rare that an INDIVIDUAL player has a sack total in in the double digits and when they DO make it to that rarified altitude, its in the LOW double digits. Once again image is not reality when a team plays good team defense and is generally very sound in NOT giving up the big play (20+ yds)

Now lets get on to comparing (on paper) what we have this year compared to last.

DL- IMPROVEMENT - this comes mostly from having a healthy and fully capable Richard Seymour. While a strength last season, having a healthy and fully prepared Seymour (who owes the league 2 trips to Hawaii, btw) the DL will not only be fundementally strong, but he will give it an added dimension that will make his fellow DL & LBs lives easier and more productive.

OLB - IMPROVEMENT - I think the improvement here is huge. Woods, Crable and an AThomas playing the position full time vastly upgrades the position. I loved Rosie Colvin. His injury in 2003 robbed us of seeing a special talent at OLB for the past few years. That fact he couldn't make a mediocre Houston team is an indication of how far his game has slipped and the production he gave us last season was more a result of his effort, schemes, and smart play, than his physical prowess. The Pats didn't even offer him a salary cut when they let him go. Taken out of the comfort zone of a defense that can protect a weaker player with good sound TEAM defense, he couldn't make a team because he no longer had the physical skills to survive a defensive concept that requires great INDIVIDUAL phyisical skills

DB - REGRESSION - but only in the short term. Some of the comments I made about Colvin hold true for Samuel as well. There is no question that he is a top flight CB in this league, but I never thought of him as an "elite" one. He too operated well WITHIN the confines of the Pats style of play. He might find his chances for making "big plays" more limited playing in an attacking system that favors CB with great physical skills. I see Samuel more akin to Deoin Branch. An excellent player, but better in our system than in someone else's. An asset to his team, but a vastly overpaid asset nonetheless

BTW- MY major concern of the secondary was not the talent and speed back there which has increased this season, but with the size of the guys. Getting ONeal was a plus. He can eventually fill the OTIS CB postion, but while the size of the WRs and TEs in the league keep on getting bigger, OUR DBs STILL struggle to get to 5'10

Bottom line We are physically much better at FS with Merriweather over Wilson whose regression has continued to the point where he was cut from Tampa. Sanders and Harrison give us a strong SS combo, and I think we will get what we need from ONeal and Wilhite at the left CB spot when you concider what the defense will do as a TOTALITY.

THAT's the key factor. We all have a tendency to look at the defense as a function of the individual parts (the DL, the LB's and DBs) rather than looking at in as a total organic unit with all the parts becoming a functioning WHOLE.

It is interesting that like the Colt defense, which is as opposite in philosophy as you can get from ours, they are both "safety orientated". In other words they attack the offense more from the safety position than the CB position. The safeties are the "impact" players.

BOTTOM LINE - this year's defense will be better than last year's by the time we get to the Playoffs...and as we learned so painfully last season,THAT is when it SHOULD be at its best.

 

[shakadave]

THE DEFENSE WILL BE BETTER THAN IT WAS LAST YEAR.

We have gotten faster, and younger. We have added Mayo, Wheatley, Sanders, ONeal, Wilhite, Crable.

What have we subracted?

Samuel. OK, we lost a starter.

I'm another who is skeptical of the welcome Andy optimism.
a) What do you mean we have "added" Sanders?
b) In Samuel we lost a lot more than just "a starter." Not only have we lost his production, but whatever effect he had on the rest of the secondary. For example, having ***ante over on the other side made life easier for Hobbs, who now has to step up his game to top corner just to match what the CBs did last year.
c) We also lost another year of youth on Bruschi's age. Ditto Rodney.
d) I tend to look at our Year 2 players on defense as a source of improvement. This year it's Meriweather alone, isn't it? Rookies can help, but aren't a sure thing. I think a year from now our Year 2 crop will be outstanding. I do think Mayo and Wheatley will be significant players this year.

 

[emoney_33]

I'm another who is skeptical of the welcome Andy optimism.
a) What do you mean we have "added" Sanders?
b) In Samuel we lost a lot more than just "a starter." Not only have we lost his production, but whatever effect he had on the rest of the secondary. For example, having ***ante over on the other side made life easier for Hobbs, who now has to step up his game to top corner just to match what the CBs did last year.
c) We also lost another year of youth on Bruschi's age. Ditto Rodney.
d) I tend to look at our Year 2 players on defense as a source of improvement. This year it's Meriweather alone, isn't it? Rookies can help, but aren't a sure thing. I think a year from now our Year 2 crop will be outstanding. I do think Mayo and Wheatley will be significant players this year.

How do you figure this? Asante in NO WAY made life easier for Hobbs, not one year. Ok maybe 3 years ago before Asante earned his reps and offenses always threw his way, but not since then.

 

[Julius]

With the Brady situation I just thought this subject became more interesting. Lost in the hoopla over Brady's injury was that the defense played very well. The run defense in particular was very solid and we saw some pressure on the quarterback. Anyone else notice Vrabel rushing from Colvin's old spot that is a new wrinkle.

 

[BadMoFo]

We have four chicks still here, three with big'uns. Who;s down?'