Why the Bears will win

[Tunescribe]

LOL, I'm glad someone has my sick sense of humor - first thing I thought of when I thought of the poor horse was, man, that is not a good omen for Indy.

I had the same thought but didn't have the balls to post it.

 

[JoeSixPat]

Barbaro has not died in vain. It's an omen.

Can you imagine all the jokes if the Colts lose?

I mean, I don't want to beat a dead horse, but they will never live this down!

 

[Tunescribe]

Can you imagine all the jokes if the Colts lose?

I mean, I don't want to beat a dead horse, but they will never live this down!

Haunted by the ghost of Barbaro ... I wonder if the people who administered the euthanasia had Chicago connections?

 

[Fixit]

Imagine the headlines if Barbaro had been mauled by a grizzly, instead.

 

[Crowpointer]

If the Colts lose it won't be a monkey climbing back on Peyton's back but a 500 lb Gorilla.

 

[sieglo]

Colts will put eight in the box and force Grossman to beat them.

 

[Box_O_Rocks]

Colts will put eight in the box and force Grossman to beat them.

Which he can do.

Regarding the earlier note about the Colts run game...remember that Giants/Buffalo game back in January 1992 I believe? Some guy named Belichick told his D to punish the WRs and live with the 100 yd RB. Ron Rivera may or may not have heard about that game, but if he has...

 

[RyanTheColtsFan]

During Colts/Pats week everyone was saying that was the SB and neither NFC foe could beat the winner of the AFC. Now that it's the Colts in the SB, the Bears all of a sudden have a good chance?

Chicago is a very good football team but some of you must have went to the John Kerry school of flip flop.

 

[PonyExpress]

During Colts/Pats week everyone was saying that was the SB and neither NFC foe could beat the winner of the AFC. Now that it's the Colts in the SB, the Bears all of a sudden have a good chance?

Chicago is a very good football team but some of you must have went to the John Kerry school of flip flop.

IMO the Bears became the favorite once SD and Baltimore were eliminated. I believe they would have given the Pats all they could handle and possibly won that game as well. It goes in line with one of the safest betting tools for Super Bowls: the team that allowed the fewest points in the regular season almost invariably wins. The only exceptions are in rematches and in Sbs where a team is going for back to back titles. Otherwise the better scoring D has always won the SB. Be very worried.

 

[Box_O_Rocks]

Be very worried.

He is Pony, don't be so hard on him.

 

[gomezcat]

Bears have NO SHOT TO WIN!!!! Give me a break.

Nor did the New York Jets or the New England Patriots in two bigger shocks than this one would be.

 

[Pat_Nasty]

A possible misconception about the Colts is that they have been playing the Tampa 2. Unless I am mistaken, they have been playing primarily one-deep safety with Sanders crowding the LOS.

Yes. This is the cover-3 shell I was talking about earlier. Bethea is the lone deep safety, and Sanders cheats up towards the line. The corners play off the line, and backpedal at the snap into their deep zone. This allows them to stuff the run better, while still protecting against deep passes. It's main weakness are short passes thrown underneath the retreating corners. These are the type of passes that Grossman was just unable to complete last week.

If the Colts rely on their run game on offense, it will keep the score reasonably close and allow the Bears to stay in the game until the 4th Q, by which time I expect the Bears O-line to assert its dominance on the Colts defense.

That's not necessarily true. If the Colts are able to run early, it could open up lanes for Manning, and set up those seem routes to Clark or Utecht that killed us in the 2nd half, as Urlacher will have to play closer to the line. And even if the Colts do stick with a run-heavy offensive plan, this will only keep the game close if the Bears offense can put some points on the board as well.... and that depends a lot on Grossman.

The Pats gashed the Colts run D in the 1st half, racking up 90 yards rushing.... and then abandoned it in the 2nd half, with only 5 attempts. That was more about a young, star-struck McDaniels giving in to Brady, something Weis would never have done, than an inability to run the football.

The Pats did run well in the 1st half, though not as well as the 90 yards suggests; remember, 35 of those came on one 4th and short play when Dillon burst through to daylight. IMO, something must have happened to Dillon, as I don't think he saw the field except for one play in the 3rd quarter. Meanwhile, Maroney couldn't get out of the backfield. His last five carries were all for negative yardage. We were moving the ball better with short passes. Oh, and Kevin Faulk also had only one touch in the 2nd half, early in the third quarter -- which is particularly odd considering that Brady was in shotgun much of the time, a formation that usually features Faulk, but instead, had Heath Evans as the lone back. I'm willing to bet that something had happened to Faulk, too.

The Bears offensive line and running backs should fare better against the Colts than ours did, but only if their defense or Grossman can make enough plays early to keep the game close, so they can continue to pound the ball.

 

[Water Boy]

First off, let me say: Wow. A lot of great stuff in their, Pony. Given a little edit for readability, that would be better than 90% of the breakdowns you'll read on ESPN or SI's websites.

All told, you make a convincing argument, but there Two matchups/factors that you didn't mention that I think give the Colts the edge, overall. First, the Colts running game has been quite strong during the playoffs. Even a good cover team like the Bears won't want to devote any extra guys to the box, and the Bears can be run on. Furthermore, the Colts' offense has shown less of a tendency to abandon the run in key situations -- perhaps Manning doesn't have as much control over play calling as in years past?

Second, though the Colts defense did not look particularly good vs. the Patriots, they did not allow the Patriots to take over the game with the rush attack. They played a lot of cover-3 with Sanders in the box, and pinched their ends, forgoing some pass rush to clog up the middle.

The Pats were able to put up 27 points vs. them because Brady was able to spread the ball around, and find the receiver squatting in the hole in the Colts' zone. The Colts tampa-2 takes away the deep ball, and that's pretty much the only thing Grossman could throw last week. 100 of his 144 yards came on 4 long completions -- he simply could not hit his receivers on any of the shorter timing or touch passes. This kind of performance won't move the chains vs. the Colts' D, unless Jones + Benson are able to go all Ron Dayne against them. D )

Great post on why the Bears will win, but I think I am in your camp Pat Nasty. The colts will win because:

1. The Colts will be able to run the ball
2. Indy's defense can take away the long ball
3. Chicago will not be able to take control with their run game because Bob Sanders is a freak. He can be lined up in deep zone coverage and still blow up run plays in the box.
4. Manning's passing accuracy and ability to deliver the ball in the face of pressure
5. Grossman's lack of consistency in the short passing game
6. Bill Polian has paid off the officials
7. Adam Vinatieri is the Devil


Face it, starting at 10:00 pm on Sunday night the gag-inducing image of Peyton Manning hoisting the Lombardi Trophy in a torrent of blue and white confeti will be shown on TV non-stop for the next year and beyond.

 

[stcjones]

Bears have NO SHOT TO WIN!!!! Give me a break.

This is a very ignorant post.......anything can happen in the NFL......any given sunday.....How do you explain 2001 Mr. Tibbs....when we had NO CHANCE TO WIN....think man....think!!

 

[everlong]

They gave up a lot more points once Harris and Brown went down.

But I'm still rooting for Da Bears.

 

[JoeSixPat]

During Colts/Pats week everyone was saying that was the SB and neither NFC foe could beat the winner of the AFC. Now that it's the Colts in the SB, the Bears all of a sudden have a good chance?

Just the opposite Ryan.

The Colts haven't been this much of a favorite since Super Bowl III.

Rest assured I'm sure this one will turn out just as well for your guys.