First off, let me say: Wow. A lot of great stuff in their, Pony. Given a little edit for readability, that would be better than 90% of the breakdowns you'll read on ESPN or SI's websites.
All told, you make a convincing argument, but there Two matchups/factors that you didn't mention that I think give the Colts the edge, overall. First, the Colts running game has been quite strong during the playoffs. Even a good cover team like the Bears won't want to devote any extra guys to the box, and the Bears can be run on. Furthermore, the Colts' offense has shown less of a tendency to abandon the run in key situations -- perhaps Manning doesn't have as much control over play calling as in years past?
Second, though the Colts defense did not look particularly good vs. the Patriots, they did not allow the Patriots to take over the game with the rush attack. They played a lot of cover-3 with Sanders in the box, and pinched their ends, forgoing some pass rush to clog up the middle.
The Pats were able to put up 27 points vs. them because Brady was able to spread the ball around, and find the receiver squatting in the hole in the Colts' zone. The Colts tampa-2 takes away the deep ball, and that's pretty much the only thing Grossman could throw last week. 100 of his 144 yards came on 4 long completions -- he simply could not hit his receivers on any of the shorter timing or touch passes. This kind of performance won't move the chains vs. the Colts' D, unless Jones + Benson are able to go all Ron Dayne against them.
D )