Why the Bears will win

Discussion in 'PatsFans.com - Patriots Fan Forum' started by PonyExpress, Feb 1, 2007.

  1. PonyExpress

    PonyExpress In the Starting Line-Up

    Manning played 1 half of good football this postseason, and even with that half has 2 Tds and 6 INTs during the playoffs. It is an indication of the sliding scale the media and football world apply to Manning that with one half of good football he has "dispelled all his doubters", while other qbs can win multiple Sbs and still be tagged as system Qbs or caretakers, such as Bradshaw, Brady, Aikman. Still, Manning did perform in the 2nd half against the Pats, although against an exhausted, flu-ridden, depleted unit at home, in a dome.

    The SB will be on Turf, out of doors, at a neutral site, against a rested opponent. While the media mocks Grossman, he has statistically outperformed Manning in the playoffs. His Bear team will be the more rested squad, having played 1 less game in recent weeks due to their bye during the Wild Card rd. 2nd half exhaustion is usually a key factor in the SB, due to the physical and emotional toll the game takes on and off the field. That extra week off may give the Bears an edge in the 2nd half that few anticipate.

    The Colts D has received accolades for its surprisingly stellar play in the postseason, although they allowed 27 points at home to the only decent offense they encountered. At a neutral sight, where the RCA dome crowd noise doesn't give the Colts D-line the snap advantage, an opponent with quality rbs and O-line that can stay in the game and commits to the run for 4 Qs will wear down this Colt team and dominate late.

    Physical Rbs like Benson and Jones are a match for Sanders and will not lose heart after a few solid hits. Nor will the Bear coaching staff abandon the run after early difficulty. The leader of the offense is T. Jones, and he will not stand for it.

    The Colts do not blitz up the middle. That is one of Grossman's weaknesses (along with inability to control his emotions), as the Pats exposed. The grass field will limit Freeney and Mathis' explosiveness off the edge. The Bears handled Grant and W. Smith of NO, better players than Freeney and MAthis, although on a slick field. Berrian is more than a match for any Colt cb deep, and the Bear TE Clark is a savvy, gutty player who will catch the ball in the clutch. One thing that is being overlooked about this Bear team is its tremendous heart, on both sides of the ball, and how physical it is. Chicago was IMO as physical a team vs. the Pats as SD, especially along the O-line.

    Dallas Clark will not be a major factor in this game. He is no match for Briggs or Urlacher. The effectiveness of the short pass to the rb will be limited due to the Bear's speed at LB. Wayne is the key threat to the Bears, a player with more guts than the mercurial Harrison, who has no stomach for the spotlight and big stage.

    The Colts will attempt to start with a bang and shock the Bears with a deep pass or two to establich an early lead. Even if this succeeds it will not dishearten the Bears, who have great character. Eventually, as the game settles in and the Colts realize they are in for a fight, they will fall back on what worked for them vs the Pats in the 2nd half, and vs. the Ravens, the short passing game. But they will find the going much more difficult vs the Bears than the Pats.

    Special teams seem like an obvious Bear advantage, although Hester is an accident waiting to happen. For that reason alone, the special teams game is a draw. Hobbs is a better KO returner than the league recognizes yet, which makes the Colts' coverage break downs vs. the Pats more excusable. Hester, a rookie, will be more prone to the mistake in this big game than the big play. If the Bears do lose, he will be the goat, and not Grossman.

    The bottom line will be the ability of the Qbs on either side to control their emotions and play with poise. The whole Colt team is more likely to struggle emotionally if Manning is off his game than the Bears will if Grossman starts poorly, as Brad Johnson did for the Bucs in '03. The Bears are accustomed to surviving when Grossman falters a bit, and are mentally tough enough to fight through it. They have all season. They are a more well-rounded team than the Colts, and the best team will win. Bears win 27-23. Thomas Jones MVP.
    Last edited: Feb 1, 2007
  2. fleabassist1

    fleabassist1 In the Starting Line-Up

    #12 Jersey

    Thanks, GP

  3. BelichickFan

    BelichickFan B.O. = Fugazi PatsFans.com Supporter

    #12 Jersey

    And I thought the Bears would win because I'll cry if they don't :D

    If they had their defense from mid year I would be more confident. As it is, I'll wait and see if they can hold up downfield. You're right about the LB on Clark. And the ST. And the Bears will likely be more determined than we were. And Manning's good half against us was with half our defense out.

    But I don't want to get my hopes up.
  4. Sean Pa Patriot

    Sean Pa Patriot Veteran Starter w/Big Long Term Deal

    #12 Jersey

    Just want it to end, this has been the longest 2 weeks for pats fans to take..
  5. Fogbuster

    Fogbuster Pro Bowl Player

    It has been a surreal kind of bummer, hasn't it. I'm trying to make the best of it, but I cannot help thinking that we gave the game to the Colts. Just gave it to them. THAT'S what hurts.

    My only salve: hopefully the Colts will just go away now. Back to their back-up role status.

  6. MrClutch

    MrClutch Third String But Playing on Special Teams

    Some good stuff Pony, thanks.
  7. fgssand

    fgssand PatsFans.com Supporter PatsFans.com Supporter

    #12 Jersey

    Oh man you got that right - PLEASE - end this season already.

    Home field advantage will go to Bears big time, they have more money and wherewithal to afford to buy tickets and Superbowl packages. Just as Philly outnumbered NE fans by about 8-1 in Jax, expect the same for Bears over Indy. Not that it really matters.
  8. MrTibbs

    MrTibbs Rotational Player and Threatening Starter's Job

    Bears have NO SHOT TO WIN!!!! Give me a break.
  9. Crowpointer

    Crowpointer Third String But Playing on Special Teams

    The Colts lost the last 3 times they played on grass (in December)@Tenn, @Jax, @Hou, so they are much more vulnerable on the road and on grass. If they can lose to Houston they can lose to the Bears.
  10. everlong

    everlong Experienced Starter w/First Big Contract

    #12 Jersey

    Vinitieri wide right.............. :rocker:
  11. cblesz

    cblesz Rotational Player and Threatening Starter's Job

    God, THAT would be AWESOME! Would finally make this knot in my stomach go away!!:rocker:
  12. JoeSixPat

    JoeSixPat Pro Bowl Player

    The stars are aligned. If the Colts lose someone's going to have to put them out of their misery.

    And if ever there was a week to euthanize a Colt, this is it.
    Last edited: Feb 1, 2007
  13. BradyManny

    BradyManny Pro Bowl Player

    I agree. After big losses, Sox, Pats or whoever, I normally start to become rational and start to put things in perspective after 2-3 days devoted to sulking and hating life.

    It's really lingered on with this loss. Anytime I briefly begin to think about anything that happened during that game, I feel sick.

    But, as for the game, I agree with you completely PonyExpress - I really think the Bears have a good chance at winning, and I'm not sure why a team which for so much of the season was considered the best in the league, is a 7 point underdog to a team that for so much of the season, was not very good.
  14. BradyManny

    BradyManny Pro Bowl Player

    LOL, I'm glad someone has my sick sense of humor - first thing I thought of when I thought of the poor horse was, man, that is not a good omen for Indy.
    Last edited: Feb 1, 2007
  15. fleabassist1

    fleabassist1 In the Starting Line-Up

    #12 Jersey

    Barbaro has not died in vain. It's an omen.
  16. BradyManny

    BradyManny Pro Bowl Player

    Yes, may his death bring us joy!

    ...that sounded a lot more evil than I meant it.
  17. frankiesfly

    frankiesfly Rotational Player and Threatening Starter's Job

    Good post bro. I agree with you on a lot of things. I think the one two punch of benson, and jones is what is going to make the difference in this game. If i remember the season right the Colts would play good against the run for a couple games, then all of a sudden go into a game VS. Jax and look horrible. Now that the Colts have had a few good games stopping the run, i think they are over due to have a bad game. The Bears will be successful running the ball. The Bears having success with thier run game, will also open up some deep plays down the field. Grossman will connect on at least one deep ball to mohammed. The few games i did get to see the Bears play, i noticed how unbelievably fast they are on D. I think thats why the Bears D was so successful this year, because of how fast they are, and there ability to tackle as individuals and as a team. I think the Bears defense is a nightmare for the Colts. Urlacher will have a hall of fame day, forcing two fumbles and having 12 tackles. Manning will also get picked off at least once. Bears win 31-17.
  18. fleabassist1

    fleabassist1 In the Starting Line-Up

    #12 Jersey

    Not really - Death is a joyous occasion - if you are a christian.

    If you said that, and your not a christian - well, then yes - it's evil
  19. Pat_Nasty

    Pat_Nasty Third String But Playing on Special Teams

    First off, let me say: Wow. A lot of great stuff in their, Pony. Given a little edit for readability, that would be better than 90% of the breakdowns you'll read on ESPN or SI's websites.

    All told, you make a convincing argument, but there Two matchups/factors that you didn't mention that I think give the Colts the edge, overall. First, the Colts running game has been quite strong during the playoffs. Even a good cover team like the Bears won't want to devote any extra guys to the box, and the Bears can be run on. Furthermore, the Colts' offense has shown less of a tendency to abandon the run in key situations -- perhaps Manning doesn't have as much control over play calling as in years past?

    Second, though the Colts defense did not look particularly good vs. the Patriots, they did not allow the Patriots to take over the game with the rush attack. They played a lot of cover-3 with Sanders in the box, and pinched their ends, forgoing some pass rush to clog up the middle.

    The Pats were able to put up 27 points vs. them because Brady was able to spread the ball around, and find the receiver squatting in the hole in the Colts' zone. The Colts tampa-2 takes away the deep ball, and that's pretty much the only thing Grossman could throw last week. 100 of his 144 yards came on 4 long completions -- he simply could not hit his receivers on any of the shorter timing or touch passes. This kind of performance won't move the chains vs. the Colts' D, unless Jones + Benson are able to go all Ron Dayne against them. :)D )
  20. PonyExpress

    PonyExpress In the Starting Line-Up

    A possible misconception about the Colts is that they have been playing the Tampa 2. Unless I am mistaken, they have been playing primarily one-deep safety with Sanders crowding the LOS. If the Colts rely on their run game on offense, it will keep the score reasonably close and allow the Bears to stay in the game until the 4th Q, by which time I expect the Bears O-line to assert its dominance on the Colts defense. The Pats gashed the Colts run D in the 1st half, racking up 90 yards rushing.... and then abandoned it in the 2nd half, with only 5 attempts. That was more about a young, star-struck McDaniels giving in to Brady, something Weis would never have done, than an inability to run the football.
    Last edited: Feb 1, 2007

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