I think people should consider that passing up this or that player in the first round... this is a strategy the Pats have about accumulating picks in the 2-3 rounds that is almost automatically successful.
Look at last year. The Patriots took a lot of heat for passing up Clay Matthews. But look at what the haul is from that trade, since we can finally add it up.
It works out to be Clay Matthews to the Packers and sixth-round LB Travis Goethel to the Raiders (from this year's draft) for Darius Butler, Brandon Tate, Julian Edelman, and Rob Gronkowski.
Matthews is a good player and it would be great to have him. But the Pats' haul will almost certainly turn out better; I think it's already about even, given we got a starting corner and a productive wideout already in the deal. If Gronkowski plays up to its billing at all, it's a wipeout in our favor-- and that's even considering Matthews panned out great for Green Bay, meaning that in that sense it was the worst possible outcome for the Pats and they still probably won the trade.
This year's deal turns out to be Bryant to the Cowboys and A.J. Edds to the Dolphins in return for Devin McCourty, Taylor Price, and Aaron Hernandez. We just have to see how it works out, but I like the odds there. Moreover I'm not sure New England trades 89 to Carolina for the 2011 #2 without having that Cowboys third-rounder.
Look at the second-round deal, too. They did a deal that basically goes like this:
LB Daryl Washington to the Cardinals; New England gets Brandon Spikes, Zoltan Mesko, and a 2011 #2.
I'm not sure Spikes won't turn out to be better than Washington all by himself.
The people who whine about passing up this or that star player don't realize that it's the hype over star power that makes lopsided deals like this possible. Just like fans, teams fall in love with players and give up too much to get them. So long as your team drafts at least decently -- in other words, Devin McCourty plays at least in the ballpark of a first-round corner -- you can't lose. Especially when you add the contract disparity into the picture. The other factor is that when you have a stable coaching situation, i.e. a coach like Belichick who isn't afraid of losing his job, he can steal from a coach willing to mortgage next year for this year. It's really a great strategy. You can quibble with who the Pats pick, but not with the strategy I think.