Which team will acquire the 28th pick for a quarterback?

[furley]

This could be Belichick's best route to go if he desires to trade the twenty-eighth pick for a second round pick and additional picks in later rounds, or future picks. What we know is these teams may or may not use the draft to fill their need for a new quarterback. Conversely, there are a few teams who might be able to hold-off and wait until next year.


Arizona - John Skelton or Max Hall or better
Buffalo - Ryan Fitzpatrick (FA 2012)
Carolina - Jimmy Clausen or Tony Pike or better
Cincinnati - Carson Palmer (retire?)
Jacksonville - David Garrard
Miami - Chad Henne
Minnesota - Joe Webb or better
Oakland - Jason Campbell (FA 2012)
San Francisco - Alex Smith FA
Seattle - Charlie Whitehurst (FA 2012)
Tennessee - Vince Young (FA 2012) Trade?
Washington - Donovan McNabb Trade or cut?


Ideally, Cincinnati, Minnesota and San Francisco are the teams you want to hear from if you're New England. Of the three, Minnesota is the one that you're the most curious about. It's no secrete that they would like to start over at quarterback and could select him with the twelfth pick. Still, New England affords all three teams the opportunity to select the best available player at their pick and use New England's pick to select a quarterback. Moreover, all three teams own a second round pick in the top thirteen of the second round.

The draft is nearly upon us, and you would be hard pressed to find two teams that agree on the order of the top eight quarterbacks. There really isn't a consensus No. 1, as most like Blaine Gabbert, but some prefer Cam Newton.

And the third quarterback really is up for grabs. Newton will be the third on some boards. On other boards, he'll be lower still. Other players who will be ranked third by various teams include Jake Locker, Ryan Mallet and Christian Ponder.

On draft day, some of those players could be jumped by Andy Dalton, Colin Kaepernick, or maybe even Ricky Stanzi.

"The all have holes in them," an NFC director of college scouting said. "So it will be beauty in the eye of the beholder."

Despite the fact that all of them have holes in them, they aren't supposed to last long on draft day. It's starting to look like all eight could be gone by the end of round three. "Teams that think they'll get the quarterback they want in the second round could be in for a rude awaking," the director said. "Teams could be trading up to late first round for those guys."

NFP Sunday Blitz | National Football Post

 

[MaineMan]

This could be Belichick's best route to go if he desires to trade the twenty-eighth pick for a second round pick and additional picks in later rounds, or future picks. What we know is these teams may or may not use the draft to fill their need for a new quarterback. Conversely, there are a few teams who might be able to hold-off and wait until next year.


Arizona - John Skelton or Max Hall or better
Buffalo - Ryan Fitzpatrick (FA 2012)
Carolina - Jimmy Clausen or Tony Pike or better
Cincinnati - Carson Palmer (retire?)
Jacksonville - David Garrard
Miami - Chad Henne
Minnesota - Joe Webb or better
Oakland - Jason Campbell (FA 2012)
San Francisco - Alex Smith FA
Seattle - Charlie Whitehurst (FA 2012)
Tennessee - Vince Young (FA 2012) Trade?
Washington - Donovan McNabb Trade or cut?


Ideally, Cincinnati, Minnesota and San Francisco are the teams you want to hear from if you're New England. Of the three, Minnesota is the one that you're the most curious about. It's no secrete that they would like to start over at quarterback and could select him with the twelfth pick. Still, New England affords all three teams the opportunity to select the best available player at their pick and use New England's pick to select a quarterback. Moreover, all three teams own a second round pick in the top thirteen of the second round.

Actually, I think that, with so much elite defensive talent at the top of this draft, a couple early teams that could really use OT may also skip that with their first pick and then try to get back in at #28 before the top five are all gone (since there are at least a couple teams around the end of the first that may also need OT). So, really, it's potentially a double bidding-war scenario - both for QB and OT. It just comes down to which team has the most ammo to barter with (or which is the most desperate).

The other thing is, for those teams seeking to trade up that DON'T have a lot of 2011 ammo, their offers of future picks should require a higher than normal premium since accepting payment in 2012 picks is officially "at your own risk." Maybe the risk isn't that great, but a team being offered a 2012 is certain to exaggerate the risk somewhat in negotiations. Be foolish not to.

 

[convertedpatsfan]

Originally, I was hoping for Mallet and/or Locker to sneak into the top half of the 1st round to increase the chances of getting a blue at #17. But I think that #28 might be where they start to go.

Imagine if someone does trade up to #28 to take their QB, and that triggers another deal for a QB in the late 1st. Then the QB-needy teams might panic, offering up a ton for #33 to make sure they get their guy.

 

[mgteich]

My gut says that many of these teams will not wait until 28. My crystal ball sees Gabbett, Newton, Mallet and Locker all being gone before we pick at 28.

MINNY
I'd be shocked if Minniy hasn't acted before 28. Minny has #12 and #43; but those are their only picks in the top 100. IMHO, Minny will pick a QB at 12, or trade down and draft a QB before 20. Minny is indeed a trade partner, but for a trade up to 12.
=======================
TEN OTHER POSSIBLES WHO PICK BEFORE 50
34 BUFF
35 CINCI (probably will move higher than 28)
36 DEN (the rumors are out that they want a QB)
37 CLEV
38 ARIZ
39 TENN
41 WASH
43 MINN
45 SF
49 JAX
==========================
If Belichick doesn't get value for a trade at 28, perhaps he will wait and get value at 33. Of course, Belichick might trade with SAN DIEGO who has #50 and #61 and might want to move up.

 

[FoxboroFlyer]

Even if Gabbert, Newton, Mallett, and Locker are all gone by pick 28 that still leaves Ponder, Dalton, and Kaepernick. Who ever misses out on the top 4 will be overpaying to move up, and get one of those three. That could actually work out even better for us, whether it be for pick 28 or 33.

 

[ctpatsfan77]

If Belichick doesn't get value for a trade at 28, perhaps he will wait and get value at 33. Of course, Belichick might trade with SAN DIEGO who has #50 and #61 and might want to move up.

I could live with a 1 and four 2s IF the Pats actually use at least three of those four.

 

[andrewgarrr]

My gut says that many of these teams will not wait until 28. My crystal ball sees Gabbett, Newton, Mallet and Locker all being gone before we pick at 28.

MINNY
I'd be shocked if Minniy hasn't acted before 28. Minny has #12 and #43; but those are their only picks in the top 100. IMHO, Minny will pick a QB at 12, or trade down and draft a QB before 20. Minny is indeed a trade partner, but for a trade up to 12.
=======================
TEN OTHER POSSIBLES WHO PICK BEFORE 50
34 BUFF
35 CINCI (probably will move higher than 28)
36 DEN (the rumors are out that they want a QB)
37 CLEV
38 ARIZ
39 TENN
41 WASH
43 MINN
45 SF
49 JAX
==========================
If Belichick doesn't get value for a trade at 28, perhaps he will wait and get value at 33. Of course, Belichick might trade with SAN DIEGO who has #50 and #61 and might want to move up.

If Gabbert, Newton, Mallet, and Locker all go before 28, there will certainly be some value at #28.

 

[furley]

In my opinion, Ryan Mallett is the most unlikely to be selected in the first round. Like Mallett, Jake Locker's stock is steadily on the decline. Whereas, Colin Kaepernick's stock is on the rise. Ditto for Christian Ponder.

So, I've a tough time seeing as many as six quarterbacks getting selected in the first round because the Kevin Kolb trade will affect that.

Amazingly it's not giving up the first round draft which bothers these teams. They’re concerned that Kolb will have outrageous contract demands.

"Keep hearing that teams interested inKkolb are not scared of draft choice compensation. They’re scared of the contract Kolb wants."

Despite the success he’s had in a few games, Kolb is still an unproven entity. He hasn’t taken a team to the playoffs or led a team to a playoff win.

QB-Needy Teams Are Concerned About Kolb’s Salary Demands | GCOBB.COM

 

[supafly]

I could live with a 1 and four 2s IF the Pats actually use at least three of those four.

Absolutely agree.

 

[Wilfork#75]

Actually, I think that, with so much elite defensive talent at the top of this draft, a couple early teams that could really use OT may also skip that with their first pick and then try to get back in at #28 before the top five are all gone (since there are at least a couple teams around the end of the first that may also need OT). So, really, it's potentially a double bidding-war scenario - both for QB and OT. It just comes down to which team has the most ammo to barter with (or which is the most desperate).

I agree that OT could also be a position teams could be looking to move up into the end of the 1st to target, especially where we are situated. I think at least 4 of the top 5 OT's will be gone by 28, but if there is still one available, then 28 seems like the perfect spot to trade up to, to grab the last one before Chicago. I think the ideal trade partner would be trading 28 to Buffalo for 34 and 100, who could target a QB, OT or OLB at 28 depending on who they take at 3. I think this would be ideal because of the power and control that could come with having the top 2 picks at the start of round 2. We would still have the ability to get the best value for 33, while controlling who is taken there, so we can still get who we want at 34. For example, if Cameron Hayward is available at the start of the second round, we can trade 33 to a team that is highly unlikely to take him at that spot. So say SD take Wilkerson at 18, and want to trade back up to 33, they are most likely to be targeting an OLB rather than another DE, so I would feel safe making that trade. Something like 33 and 159 for 61, 82 and 89.

 

[TealSox]

Sounds like I'm in the minority.

Outside of Gabbert and Newton, I think any team would be reaching to take a QB in the first round. Last year, fans saw Jimmy Clausen and Colt McCoy drop into the second and third round. Tebow, had it not been for Denver, could had easily fallen into the second round.

I suppose the difference is, there are more teams in need of a franchise QB than last year. My predication is that four QBs will be taken in the first round, while the other QB-needy teams will scramble around the second round to get their future bust.

If a Offensive Tackle fell to the 28th spot [a la Joe Staley], the Patriots could move back to the deep end of the QB prospect pool.

 

[furley]

Some interesting tidbits regarding both Denver and Seattle.

- SI.com picked up a story this weekend we’ve been holding for ten days. Sources have told us a while ago they expect the Denver Broncos to draft a quarterback this year and it could be early. Many familiar with the situation told us Tim Tebow is not the quarterback for John Elway- and with the future Hall of Fame passer calling many of the shots for the franchise a signal caller is a priority. Colin Kaepernick of Nevada at the top of round two makes the most sense. The team has already worked out Kaepernick and will bring him in for a visit next week. Sources have also said the team will draft a playmaking tight end at some point in the draft. Julius Thomas is one of the players they seem to be targeting. Teams have been impressed with his football smarts and love his upside.

- Last week we made mention of Ryan Mallett falling down draft boards and Andy Dalton being the beneficiary. This week we can tell you the Seattle Seahawks presently have Dalton as a round one target. We understand the team still likes cornerback Jimmy Smith in the first as well.

April’s NFL Draft Insider News & Notes: 4-3

 

[supafly]

Some interesting tidbits regarding both Denver and Seattle.





April’s NFL Draft Insider News & Notes: 4-3

I think your article solidifies the fact that at least 4 QB's will go in round 1. There are just too many teams with a need at the position, not to mention no free agency for guys like Kolb, McNabb, Bulger, Palmer, etc.

 

[Box_O_Rocks]

Some interesting tidbits regarding both Denver and Seattle.

April’s NFL Draft Insider News & Notes: 4-3

So, Saint Elway doesn't want any competition for franchise icon!

This will make things interesting if Tebow hits the trade market. I'm wondering when Hoyer is going to draw some interest from more than Mike Lombardi?

 

[furley]

In my mock draft thread I'd said the ideal trade partner for the twenty-eighth pick is Denver.

http://www.patsfans.com/new-england-patriots/messageboard/13/743780-my-mock-draft.html


In accordance to Rotoworld...



The Broncos are interested in trading back to draft Florida State QB Christian Ponder, according to Scout.com draft analyst Chris Steuber.

This comes on the heels of a report saying Tim Tebow is "not the quarterback for John Elway." Ponder is perhaps the most NFL-ready quarterback in the draft and will likely be available in the back end of the first round or the first part of the second round. The Broncos have two second-round picks to use as ammo -- they are unlikely to part with the No. 2 overall pick.

 

[ctpatsfan77]

In my mock draft thread I'd said the ideal trade partner for the twenty-eighth pick is Denver.

I know there's unlikely to be a new CBA in time for the draft, but imagine if that trade ended up with Tebow in Foxboro. It might be one of the few trades that caused heads to explode in both fan bases.

 

[furley]

More of the same.



NFL Network's Albert Breer "keeps hearing -- from everyone" that a "ton" of trades will be made on April 28 by teams looking to acquire quarterbacks late in the first round.

The feeling around the NFL is that Cam Newton and Blaine Gabbert will go early, and all of the quarterback-needy teams will be looking to pounce after the first half of round one. "Commence game of leapfrog," writes Breer. Quarterbacks potentially worth trading back into round one for include Christian Ponder, Andy Dalton, Jake Locker, Colin Kaepernick, and Ryan Mallett.



If there are to be six quarterbacks selected in the first round, then I predict that these teams will be the ones who take one. Somebody has to be the odd man out so I see him being Locker. Subsequently, he'll be there for either Tennessee or San Francisco to select in the second round.


1. Carolina - Newton
3. Buffalo - Gabbert
12. Minnesota - Kaepernick
25. Seattle - Dalton
28. Denver (from New England) - Ponder
31. Cincinnati (from Pittsburgh) - Mallett

 

[bucky]

I think the best team/QB match might be SF and Ponder. Ponder is ideal for West Coast offense and he should be able to start right away.

However, at the moment it seems highly unlikely that teams picking at 29-32 would draft a QB. So I would agree that the more likely target at 28 would be either OT or DL. And 33 could be the perfect place to get a team needing a QB.

Assuming the Patriots have already drafted a DE by now, I don't see a lot of value staying at 28 or 33.
So in terms of trades, I'm guessing:

28, 125, and 159 to Cowboys for 40, 71, and 220;
33 to 49ers for 45 and #2 in 2010.

 

[bucky]

More of the same.



NFL Network's Albert Breer "keeps hearing -- from everyone" that a "ton" of trades will be made on April 28 by teams looking to acquire quarterbacks late in the first round.

The feeling around the NFL is that Cam Newton and Blaine Gabbert will go early, and all of the quarterback-needy teams will be looking to pounce after the first half of round one. "Commence game of leapfrog," writes Breer. Quarterbacks potentially worth trading back into round one for include Christian Ponder, Andy Dalton, Jake Locker, Colin Kaepernick, and Ryan Mallett.

Last year, all the media were predicting 4 QBs would go in round 1. But Clausen didn't go till 48 and McCoy till 85. So I'm not buying it. I just don't see teams tripping over themselves to grab Ryan Mallet or Jake Locker.

 

[Box_O_Rocks]

More of the same.

NFL Network's Albert Breer "keeps hearing -- from everyone" that a "ton" of trades will be made on April 28 by teams looking to acquire quarterbacks late in the first round.

The feeling around the NFL is that Cam Newton and Blaine Gabbert will go early, and all of the quarterback-needy teams will be looking to pounce after the first half of round one. "Commence game of leapfrog," writes Breer. Quarterbacks potentially worth trading back into round one for include Christian Ponder, Andy Dalton, Jake Locker, Colin Kaepernick, and Ryan Mallett.

If there are to be six quarterbacks selected in the first round, then I predict that these teams will be the ones who take one. Somebody has to be the odd man out so I see him being Locker. Subsequently, he'll be there for either Tennessee or San Francisco to select in the second round.


1. Carolina - Newton
3. Buffalo - Gabbert
12. Minnesota - Kaepernick
25. Seattle - Dalton
28. Denver (from New England) - Ponder
31. Cincinnati (from Pittsburgh) - Mallett

Just a heads up: Cincinnati's new OC apparently intends to transition to a West Coast offense. Cincy is going to be looking for accuracy and decision making in the short passing game and mobility (Ponder and Dalton early, McElroy later).

A thought on Denver: Elway is calling the shots - having had a big arm and good mobility he knows what the ideal QB looks like.