What type of tender with Gostkowski get?

[bucky]

Where are all those people telling me I was nuts to think a late picking, kicker poor team like Indy would consider stealing Gostkowski if the compensation was only a second round pick? Funny what the market looks like when lesser kickers start getting franchised. :snob:

That would be you and me who had that discussion. Since I went through and listed all the Colts' 2nd round draft picks in an earlier thread somewhere (funny how the same thread just keeps coming up), I won't go over it again. I like Gost and will be glad to see him here for the next 5 years. But if he wants to be paid like to top 3 kicker, I would be happy to get a late 2nd for Gost. If you look at the teams who've been successful in the playoffs, having a great kicker is not that high a priority.

With regards to franchised kickers, the only one that's been franchised so far is Redd. Correct? I'd have to say Reed is a better kicker than Gost, though obviously his off-field problems are a headache.

 

[ctpatsfan77]

That would be you and me who had that discussion. Since I went through and listed all the Colts' 2nd round draft picks in an earlier thread somewhere (funny how the same thread just keeps coming up), I won't go over it again. I like Gost and will be glad to see him here for the next 5 years. But if he wants to be paid like to top 3 kicker, I would be happy to get a late 2nd for Gost. If you look at the teams who've been successful in the playoffs, having a great kicker is not that high a priority.

With regards to franchised kickers, the only one that's been franchised so far is Redd. Correct? I'd have to say Reed is a better kicker than Gost, though obviously his off-field problems are a headache.

Why? He's not really any better at 40+, or overall. . . .

 

[Box_O_Rocks]

That would be you and me who had that discussion. Since I went through and listed all the Colts' 2nd round draft picks in an earlier thread somewhere (funny how the same thread just keeps coming up), I won't go over it again. I like Gost and will be glad to see him here for the next 5 years. But if he wants to be paid like to top 3 kicker, I would be happy to get a late 2nd for Gost. If you look at the teams who've been successful in the playoffs, having a great kicker is not that high a priority.

With regards to franchised kickers, the only one that's been franchised so far is Redd. Correct? I'd have to say Reed is a better kicker than Gost, though obviously his off-field problems are a headache.

FR: Franchise Players 2010 Football Relativity

I believe Gostkowski is at least matching Reed's completion percentage, and what does it say about how teams view the kicker market that two teams are franchising their PK? New England franchised Vinatieri twice, oddly enough we can even point to playoff performance where his production proved effective. Clearly a reliable PK is of value to NFL teams and it's hardly a coincidence both Pittsburgh and Seattle are cold weather stadiums.

Here's Franchise Tag info: NFLLabor.com 2010 February 20

Here's RFA tender info: NFLLabor.com Frequently Asked Questions ? Tenders for Restricted Free Agents

And here are the contract details for the #63 overall pick (where Indy would be picking this year): Cody Brown signs on with Cardinals | ProFootballTalk.com

I'd rather have a nice reliable Gostkowski than try to pick over the PKs in this draft class or on the NFL scrap heap.

 

[bucky]

FR: Franchise Players 2010 Football Relativity

I believe Gostkowski is at least matching Reed's completion percentage, and what does it say about how teams view the kicker market that two teams are franchising their PK? New England franchised Vinatieri twice, oddly enough we can even point to playoff performance where his production proved effective. Clearly a reliable PK is of value to NFL teams and it's hardly a coincidence both Pittsburgh and Seattle are cold weather stadiums.

Here's Franchise Tag info: NFLLabor.com 2010 February 20

Here's RFA tender info: NFLLabor.com Frequently Asked Questions ? Tenders for Restricted Free Agents

And here are the contract details for the #63 overall pick (where Indy would be picking this year): Cody Brown signs on with Cardinals | ProFootballTalk.com

I'd rather have a nice reliable Gostkowski than try to pick over the PKs in this draft class or on the NFL scrap heap.

I don't see how you're tying all of this together. I did forget about Mare getting the tag. But the big difference here is - if Seattle and Pitt don't apply the tag, they lose the kicker for nothing. The Pats would be getting a 2nd rounder back. That to me is the crux of the entire argument - a 2nd round pick is worth more than a (arguably) top 5 kicker.

With regard to Gost vs. Reed, Reed kicks in an arguable tougher stadium. But more importantly, Reed has not missed a postseason kick since his rookie year, while Gost is the opposite - he was great in 2006, but not so much in 2007 and 2009.

 

[PatsFaninME]

The Pats should be doing everything reasonable to keep this guy. First Round tender for sure, but I'd like to see a long term deal when it can be done. For any team, the idea that it could pick up a proven, highly reliable Pro Bowl K, who will be around for at least another seven or eight seasons, for a Second Rounder is such a no brainer as to be silly.

I agree completely. There would be 31 teams lined up to grap him for a 2nd. I think they're be a few to even gladly give a 1st and 3rd, honestly. The Pats better sign this guy to a 5+ year deal before Friday or we are in trouble. Gost is easily worth 3 mil per year.

 

[Box_O_Rocks]

I don't see how you're tying all of this together. I did forget about Mare getting the tag. But the big difference here is - if Seattle and Pitt don't apply the tag, they lose the kicker for nothing. The Pats would be getting a 2nd rounder back. That to me is the crux of the entire argument - a 2nd round pick is worth more than a (arguably) top 5 kicker.

With regard to Gost vs. Reed, Reed kicks in an arguable tougher stadium. But more importantly, Reed has not missed a postseason kick since his rookie year, while Gost is the opposite - he was great in 2006, but not so much in 2007 and 2009.

Why should it matter if they lose a kicker for nothing? Clearly you believe they can pick up an equivalent kicker easily enough.

If NE gets a 2nd for Gostkowski do you expect the Pats to use that second on a kicker? Then the compensation isn't significant, it's just another draft pick who most likely won't ever amount to much if we go by the bellyacher's laments.

The significance of two Franchise Tags and, we presume, an RFA Tender for three kickers is over 9% of the NFL is using CBA mechanisms with guaranteed salaries near the top of the position to retain their PKs. That isn't an insignificant number. Further, Pittsburgh and NE are both considered shrewd personnel management clubs by their peers (if not fans and pundits) - clearly PK isn't just a plug & play piece of the puzzle for teams who take continued competitiveness seriously.

 

[bucky]

Why should it matter if they lose a kicker for nothing? Clearly you believe they can pick up an equivalent kicker easily enough.

If NE gets a 2nd for Gostkowski do you expect the Pats to use that second on a kicker? Then the compensation isn't significant, it's just another draft pick who most likely won't ever amount to much if we go by the bellyacher's laments.

An argument can be made that a kicker is only as good as he psyche is at any given time - i.e. a good kicker can miss an important kick and turn into a bad kicker very quickly. Folk is an example of that. And although there is something to that, I'm not even going to go there. I'm simply saying that in most circumstances, a kicker is not worth a 2nd round pick. Of course I'm not going to use a 2nd round pick to replace him. I would either sign a lower end kicker like Graham or Feeley, or go the route they went last year - draft a kicker in the later rounds and pair him with a so-so free agent (like Folk, for instance) and see who wins the job.

The difference in kicking isn't going to be that drastic. In the meantime, with the 2nd rounder there's a 50-50 chance you could be getting the next Branch or Vollmer ( the other 50% falls in the Wheatley or Marquise Hill, but that's a chance worth taking).

 

[Box_O_Rocks]

An argument can be made that a kicker is only as good as he psyche is at any given time - i.e. a good kicker can miss an important kick and turn into a bad kicker very quickly. Folk is an example of that. And although there is something to that, I'm not even going to go there. I'm simply saying that in most circumstances, a kicker is not worth a 2nd round pick. Of course I'm not going to use a 2nd round pick to replace him. I would either sign a lower end kicker like Graham or Feeley, or go the route they went last year - draft a kicker in the later rounds and pair him with a so-so free agent (like Folk, for instance) and see who wins the job.

The difference in kicking isn't going to be that drastic. In the meantime, with the 2nd rounder there's a 50-50 chance you could be getting the next Branch or Vollmer ( the other 50% falls in the Wheatley or Marquise Hill, but that's a chance worth taking).

Well we'll know if BB subscribes to your thinking in a day or two.

 

[bucky]

Well we'll know if BB subscribes to your thinking in a day or two.

My guess is that he will not because there is no salary cap this year and Kraft is not cheap.

I should add that another reason behind my thought process here is that tendering Gost at 2nd round would allow them to tender Mankins at the lowest tender (which would still be a 1st round). If Gost is tendered at the 1st round level, due to some CBA complexities, Mankins would have to be tendered higher or he could be lost for less than a #1.

So by making those 2 moves, they would save about $2.5 mil that they could potential put towards getting some other free agent. They would obviously risk losing one or both of the players for a significant return.

 

[ctpatsfan77]

My guess is that he will not because there is no salary cap this year and Kraft is not cheap.

I should add that another reason behind my thought process here is that tendering Gost at 2nd round would allow them to tender Mankins at the lowest tender (which would still be a 1st round). If Gost is tendered at the 1st round level, due to some CBA complexities, Mankins would have to be tendered higher or he could be lost for less than a #1.

So by making those 2 moves, they would save about $2.5 mil that they could potential put towards getting some other free agent and drastically reduce the likelihood of their signing Gostkowski and especially Mankins long-term. They would obviously risk losing one or both of the players for a significant return.

Fixed your post for you.

 

[ctpatsfan77]

And to put this conversation in perspective, here's the Herald with the FAIL:

But there is a feeling among people watching that situation that the Patriots may actually offer Gostkowski the lowest possible tender. They could extend him the original pick compensation (4th round) tender, worth $1.2 million in one-year contract and securing the right to match any offer from any team.

[. . .]

Gostkowski is solid, very good even, and the Patriots want to keep him. But a two-year guaranteed contract worth a total of $5 million — which is what it would be with two consecutive years of first-round RFA tenders — is a ton for a kicker. It’s almost the average of the top 5 kickers (franchise tag), which is now at $2.8 million.

Instead, the Patriots may tender him at the lowest level, then allow other teams to essentially work out the contract for them. He can shop himself around, see what he’s worth, then watch teams work up a deal. Perhaps he finds a four-year, $10-million deal with a nice signing bonus and a bunch guaranteed. That’s the same as what the Pats would pay per-year for a two-year deal, but it also offers Gostkowski the up-front money and security he’d like. By year three for the Patriots, it’s a bargain.

Or maybe, the deal comes in at four years and $8 million, the Pats match it, and save money. The only risk — and it’s a decent risk — is that someone tries to pay him Sebastian Janikowski money of four years and $16 million. Then the Pats don’t match, lose their kicker, and are on the market.

But it seems like a risk worth taking.

:bricks: :bricks: :bricks:

 

[Box_O_Rocks]

And to put this conversation in perspective, here's the Herald with the FAIL:



:bricks: :bricks: :bricks:

Lord love a duck. :ugh:

 

[Bostonian1962]

Give him the high tender, we can't afford to lose him.

Agree completely! He's one of the best kickers in the NFL, if not the best. Another 2nd round pick is all well and good, but we'd be paying for it all year, with missed FGs.

 

[WelshPat]

Just to let you guys know that the draft after this one could be the strongest ever for kickers. Alex Henery from Nebraska is a kicker/punter who's hit from 57. There's a few others out there.

Just to add, i think Gostkowski is an above average kicker, but you could do better.

 

[alamo]

I agree completely. There would be 31 teams lined up to grap him for a 2nd. I think they're be a few to even gladly give a 1st and 3rd, honestly. The Pats better sign this guy to a 5+ year deal before Friday or we are in trouble. Gost is easily worth 3 mil per year.

There is certainly a chance that another team could be willing to pay a second, but you are nuts that there would be a stampede. This board tends to overvalue our good players and undervalue our average players, and this is a good example. 2nd seems right to me.

 

[VJCPatriot]

I like Gostkowski, don't get me wrong. He hits at a pretty good clip 80%? But how many big kicks do you remember him making? I'd take a 2nd round pick for him. 2.5M seems an awful lot to pay a kicker.

 

[Underdog]

But how many big kicks do you remember him making?

Heck, how many do you even remember BB letting him try?

I'd take a 2nd round pick for him. 2.5M seems an awful lot to pay a kicker.

Agreed. Especially one the coach doesn't trust in important situations. He barely tolerated paying that much for AV in his prime. Gost is a good, not great, kicker. If anyone wants to fork over a 2nd rounder and a big contract for him, I'll drive him to the airport myself.

Plus, tagging him at the 2nd rd level means they can tender Mankins for 110% of his last year's salary and still keep 1st round comp on him. That keeps a few extra mil in cash free for VW or whomever.

 

[bucky]

Plus, tagging him at the 2nd rd level means they can tender Mankins for 110% of his last year's salary and still keep 1st round comp on him. That keeps a few extra mil in cash free for VW or whomever.

Just one more point on this as well. Assuming we tag and keep both Gost and Mankins for 1 year, they would both be UFAs next year (I realize there is no CBA next year, but assuming one is worked out). Which means our chances of keeping both of them would be slim (with only 1 franchise tag and knowing they haven't been able to sign the long-term yet). And that doesn't even account for any other potential FAs like Brady, Moss, Wilfork, Light, etc. that we might want to keep with a FA tag.

So it's similar to the Wiflork/Seymour situation from a year ago. You could get something for 1 of them now, or risk losing then for nothing in 1 year.

 

[ctpatsfan77]

I like Gostkowski, don't get me wrong. He hits at a pretty good clip 80%? But how many big kicks do you remember him making? I'd take a 2nd round pick for him. 2.5M seems an awful lot to pay a kicker.

It's not exactly Gostkowski's fault that the Patriots have rarely needed him to make game-winning kicks.

And if BB doesn't "trust" Gostkowski, why the heck has there been ZERO competition for Gostkowski since 2006?

 

[ctpatsfan77]

Just one more point on this as well. Assuming we tag and keep both Gost and Mankins for 1 year, they would both be UFAs next year (I realize there is no CBA next year, but assuming one is worked out). Which means our chances of keeping both of them would be slim (with only 1 franchise tag and knowing they haven't been able to sign the long-term yet). And that doesn't even account for any other potential FAs like Brady, Moss, Wilfork, Light, etc. that we might want to keep with a FA tag.

So it's similar to the Wiflork/Seymour situation from a year ago. You could get something for 1 of them now, or risk losing then for nothing in 1 year.

You're operating under the flawed assumption that the Patriots' only option is to keep them on their tenders. The Patriots would still have several months to sign them to long-term contracts.