Time to groom a QB for future?

[townes]

I see Brady ending his career with the Patriots when he is 40. He is playing the best ball of his and i believe that will continue for another 3-4 years before we start to see a decline, and even then i feel that decline will still leave him head and shoulders over 80% of the QB;s in this league. Brady's game is built on his football knowledge and accuracy and both are still getting better. If they took a QB with a first or second round pick four years from now i would support that completely, prior to that i see it as a waste of a high pick and an expensive clipboard holder.

 

[ctpatsfan77]

Don't they take a QB every year somewhere in the draft? Kevin McConnell, Zac, Cassell. It would be a surprise if the didn't take a QB.

Since Brady, they've drafted:

Rohan Davey (2002)
Kliff Kingsbury (2003)
Matt Cassel (2005)
Kevin O'Connell (2008)
Zac Robinson (2010)

So they don't draft QBs every year, but obviously they bring some in every year.

 

[patriotscpfc]

You won't have to. When the Pats draft a QB on day 2, I'll bump it for ya.

O'Connell would be a day 2 pick now.

I expect Stanzi to be taken at some point in the 3rd round.

Seems the perfect fit.

 

[Glorystomper]

Still thinking that Andy Dalton is the best bet!

 

[Danielbaron1]

Yea andy dalton looks good

 

[Wolfpack]

Brady is the current NFL MVP. Top of his game no question. But he turns 34 this summer. Consider the following:

Montana finished his career in San Francisco at age 36.
Hall of Famer Troy Aikman retired at age 34.
Hall of Famer Terry Bradshaw retired at age 35.
Hall of Famer Dan Fouts retired at age 36.
Hall of Famer Jim Kelley retired at age 36.

No QB in the history of the NFL has ever won a Superbowl past the age of 38, and even that has been done only once ( Elway ).

Assuming it takes a guy like Jake Locker ( or most any other rookie ) at least 2 years before he is ready for prime time, is it worth it to invest a high pick at QB to groom for the future / protect against injury ?

While Brady missed a full season due to injury, overall his body has not sustained anywhere near as much cumulative wear and tear as the guys mentioned on that list. A better comparison would be Manning, who is older but doesn't seem to be anywhere near retirement.

 

[Patspsycho]

Brady is the current NFL MVP. Top of his game no question. But he turns 34 this summer. Consider the following:

Montana finished his career in San Francisco at age 36.
Hall of Famer Troy Aikman retired at age 34.
Hall of Famer Terry Bradshaw retired at age 35.
Hall of Famer Dan Fouts retired at age 36.
Hall of Famer Jim Kelley retired at age 36.

No QB in the history of the NFL has ever won a Superbowl past the age of 38, and even that has been done only once ( Elway ).

Assuming it takes a guy like Jake Locker ( or most any other rookie ) at least 2 years before he is ready for prime time, is it worth it to invest a high pick at QB to groom for the future / protect against injury ?

I've mentioned this a few times before, and I'll repeat it: Brady takes very good care of himself. He stays in shape year round, is on a strict diet, and takes his routines very seriously. He even avoids red wine.

It is highly likely that most of those quarterbacks tend to come to training camp out of shape, especially the older generations one who ate plenty of red meat and drank heavily (except for Montana). IIRC Fouts was a smoker.

I think that with this generation of quarterbacks, 40 is the new 35.

To invest in a QB in the high rounds at this point would be a big waste of resource. Hoyer has proven himself to have a competent grasp of the offense.

 

[JoeSixPat]

I've mentioned this a few times before, and I'll repeat it: Brady takes very good care of himself. He stays in shape year round, is on a strict diet, and takes his routines very seriously. He even avoids red wine.

It is highly likely that most of those quarterbacks tend to come to training camp out of shape, especially the older generations one who ate plenty of red meat and drank heavily (except for Montana). IIRC Fouts was a smoker.

I think that with this generation of quarterbacks, 40 is the new 35.

To invest in a QB in the high rounds at this point would be a big waste of resource. Hoyer has proven himself to have a competent grasp of the offense.

No matter how good shape Brady attempts to keep himself in, Belichick won't gamble on being the first QB in the history of football to remain Super Bowl caliber at age 40.

The smart move will be to cover his bets and be looking for a potential replacement within the duration of Brady's current contract. (I don't know who said they'll wait til Brady's contract runs out before looking, but that's ridiculous)

Belichick knows the "worst" case scenario is that he has two Super Bowl caliber QBs on the roster - and whether he keeps or trades them the bottom line is that it's a valuable commodity.

 

[Box_O_Rocks]

“Watching the way Hoyer conducts himself and the thoughts inside the building with Matt Cassel and his development, they feel Hoyer is where (Cassel) was or better,” Zolak said. “That he gives them an as good or better chance to win than Matt Cassel did. Cassel had a lot of success here, but they love Hoyer. I think Hoyer’s the guy — flat-out.”

Let the bidding begin.

 

[MoLewisrocks]

“Watching the way Hoyer conducts himself and the thoughts inside the building with Matt Cassel and his development, they feel Hoyer is where (Cassel) was or better,” Zolak said. “That he gives them an as good or better chance to win than Matt Cassel did. Cassel had a lot of success here, but they love Hoyer. I think Hoyer’s the guy — flat-out.”

Let the bidding begin.

Once upon a time the media here thought KOC was the guy, and as I recall the loved, loved, loved Gutierrez... This is Zo talking. He thought Drew was the guy. Frankly he probably believed he was the guy.

Hoyer is gone in a year or two tops (this year, RFA year and tag and trade year thereafter only at the outer limits of possibility). However, a kid they locate or draft next year or the year after to replace Hoyer might both develop and be around long enough affordably to replace Brady when the time comes (which won't be for at least another 4-6 years).

People need to remember the cap is going to take a step back for at least the next couple of seasons, and with Brady likely the #2 highest contract player in the league behind Manning and with some fine young talent that will be lining up for their second deals... value will be a concern.

 

[Ring 6]

Andy, I don't want to get into a long word-parsing debate with you, but does fore-casted position in the draft determine whether a QB is one that BB could "develop in his system?"

In other words, I think it's possible to have a QB who can be "develop(ed) in his system" at #1 in the Draft and at #199, just like its possible to have a QB who is "set in his ways" at #1 and at #199.

Assuming that the physical skill set and basic mental aptitude are there, isn't it a matter of assessing the attitude of the individual, no matter where he's slotted by the pundits, that determines whether a QB can be "develop(ed) in his system"?

Sticking to that narrow point, do you see that differently? If so, how would you see that differently?

I think a QB drafted #1 and a guy drafted in the 6th like Brady, 7th like Cassell or never like Hoyer bring a different history and mentality to the job.
My thinking is an un heralded late round pick with low expectations is much more maleable than a highly touted 'franchise QB to be' kind of guy.
A common concept in business is that if you train a guy from square 1, and teach him only your way, then you don't have to untrain the bad habots the experienced guy has. I think there is somewhat of a parallel to that.

 

[MoLewisrocks]

No matter how good shape Brady attempts to keep himself in, Belichick won't gamble on being the first QB in the history of football to remain Super Bowl caliber at age 40.

The smart move will be to cover his bets and be looking for a potential replacement within the duration of Brady's current contract. (I don't know who said they'll wait til Brady's contract runs out before looking, but that's ridiculous)

Belichick knows the "worst" case scenario is that he has two Super Bowl caliber QBs on the roster - and whether he keeps or trades them the bottom line is that it's a valuable commodity.

The "worst" case scenario is that he still has just one SB caliber QB on the roster and the other has no trade value or even viability as a replacement while a valuable draft pick and other resources spent on him have been wasted rather than used to fill more likely need elsewhere. Linemen (offense and defense) and receivers and corners and the like are a lot less likely to play to 40 or sign incremental team/cap friendly deals than has been this QB...

What Belichick needs to focus on in seeking backups to potentially replace Brady is locating guys who haven't been handed it, guys willing to work for it and adapt their skill set to his needs and schemes and you're a lot more likely to find that kind of guy where he's found the handful who have already worked out well for him, in the late rounds or later... These replacement discussions occur every season and mirror the hue and cry for a veteran backup to Brady that Bill has moved away from ever since Brady became that veteran presence on this team.

Brady will sign one more deal/extension here before he departs. He's on his fourth already because his have always been incremental. He's missed 15 starts (and few snaps otherwise) in his career, but all in one season (from which he's MVP rebounded) due to the timing of the injury alone...

I'd be more concerned if this was Indy and his name was Manning because he has struggled a little more when faced with adversity (knee and neck woes) and he's only now getting hit more than ever and they have yet to field a remotely competent even emergency backup behind him... They will need to go back to their same well (top of the first) to replace him as a result... It will take a disasterous season or some pretty savvy tradesmanship we haven't seen from Polian in over a decade to even be in position to begin to accomplish that replacement.

Meanwhile Belichick has managed unbeknowst to the enlightened local media and most of the long time fan base to have been in position to replace Brady if and when he must basically since 2006...all the while flying under the radar. If it ain't broke, don't fix it. I think as with his overall system and scheme, Bill has the courage of his convictions that he won't have to when it comes to the QB position. Will Brady's eventual replacement be a HOF QB? Hard to say regardless of where he's drafted. Same could be said about whomever replaces the HC. The goal here for Kraft as well as BB has always been to build something that could sustain a winning record consistently. Because if you just do that anything becomes possible.

 

[PatsFanSince74]

I think a QB drafted #1 and a guy drafted in the 6th like Brady, 7th like Cassell or never like Hoyer bring a different history and mentality to the job.
My thinking is an un heralded late round pick with low expectations is much more maleable than a highly touted 'franchise QB to be' kind of guy.
A common concept in business is that if you train a guy from square 1, and teach him only your way, then you don't have to untrain the bad habots the experienced guy has. I think there is somewhat of a parallel to that.

Good point. It is very reasonable to think that the "unheralded" guy is more likely to be "malleable" than the first round stud.

On the other hand, I don't think that the two are mutually exclusive, viz., first round hype and a willingness to learn and adapt.

I guess I would hope that the Patriots would never take a pass on someone that they think might be "the guy," just because he was going to go early in the draft. Clearly that increases the financial and cap risks but there are other risks associated with picking further down the board as well.

In the final analysis, I guess it comes down to trusting the judgment of Belichick and maybe one or two others to make the right trade-offs among the different risks when they are "on the clock."

Thanks.

 

[RobertWeathers]

In the final analysis, I guess it comes down to trusting the judgment of Belichick and maybe one or two others to make the right trade-offs among the different risks when they are "on the clock."

Thanks.

Bingo.

There is no question that BB is the forward-thinking type of guy as it relates to the Qb position. Drafting KOC in the 3rd round illustrates that point. The problem is that the guy was a bust and by many was a projected late-round pick. Everyone misfires on draft day and I'm not to denigrate BB on that point. However unless the guy is a big-time value pick or a sure-fire, productive QB my preference is to wait until the 6th or 7th round to draft a QB. History has been kind to the Pats in that regard

 

[JoeSixPat]

The "worst" case scenario is that he still has just one SB caliber QB on the roster and the other has no trade value or even viability as a replacement while a valuable draft pick and other resources spent on him have been wasted rather than used to fill more likely need elsewhere. Linemen (offense and defense) and receivers and corners and the like are a lot less likely to play to 40 or sign incremental team/cap friendly deals than has been this QB...

What Belichick needs to focus on in seeking backups to potentially replace Brady is locating guys who haven't been handed it, guys willing to work for it and adapt their skill set to his needs and schemes and you're a lot more likely to find that kind of guy where he's found the handful who have already worked out well for him, in the late rounds or later... These replacement discussions occur every season and mirror the hue and cry for a veteran backup to Brady that Bill has moved away from ever since Brady became that veteran presence on this team.

Brady will sign one more deal/extension here before he departs. He's on his fourth already because his have always been incremental. He's missed 15 starts (and few snaps otherwise) in his career, but all in one season (from which he's MVP rebounded) due to the timing of the injury alone...

I'd be more concerned if this was Indy and his name was Manning because he has struggled a little more when faced with adversity (knee and neck woes) and he's only now getting hit more than ever and they have yet to field a remotely competent even emergency backup behind him... They will need to go back to their same well (top of the first) to replace him as a result... It will take a disasterous season or some pretty savvy tradesmanship we haven't seen from Polian in over a decade to even be in position to begin to accomplish that replacement.

Meanwhile Belichick has managed unbeknowst to the enlightened local media and most of the long time fan base to have been in position to replace Brady if and when he must basically since 2006...all the while flying under the radar. If it ain't broke, don't fix it. I think as with his overall system and scheme, Bill has the courage of his convictions that he won't have to when it comes to the QB position. Will Brady's eventual replacement be a HOF QB? Hard to say regardless of where he's drafted. Same could be said about whomever replaces the HC. The goal here for Kraft as well as BB has always been to build something that could sustain a winning record consistently. Because if you just do that anything becomes possible.

There's no telling what Brady's status will be 4 years from now. Belichick's been caught without a contingency plan in the past at other positions (WR for example in Branch's hold out year) - he won't let that happen at QB.

 

[RobertWeathers]

There's no telling what Brady's status will be 4 years from now. Belichick's been caught without a contingency plan in the past at other positions (WR for example in Branch's hold out year) - he won't let that happen at QB.

Correction: BB has ALWAYS had a plan. It just didn't work out on a few occasions.

 

[mac]

I've mentioned this a few times before, and I'll repeat it: Brady takes very good care of himself. He stays in shape year round, is on a strict diet, and takes his routines very seriously. He even avoids red wine.

It is highly likely that most of those quarterbacks tend to come to training camp out of shape, especially the older generations one who ate plenty of red meat and drank heavily (except for Montana). IIRC Fouts was a smoker.

I think that with this generation of quarterbacks, 40 is the new 35.

To invest in a QB in the high rounds at this point would be a big waste of resource. Hoyer has proven himself to have a competent grasp of the offense.

To these eyes, during his last two full seasons, Brady, by playoff time, has had the look of a guy who has the mindset to just "get through" the 16 game regular season. Against the Ravens, he played like a high school quarterback. Against the Jets, he seemed to go into a funk and stay there. It is no coincidence that Yee, Brady's agent, suggested that, if the NFL were to go to an 18 game season, players be allowed only to play 16 games. Not to mention the disconnect between the off-season Brady lifestyle and the harsh combat-like demands of football. Hoyer to succeed TB is dubious. Bottom line, why piddle around with late-round QB prospects? If the NFL lockout lasts into the season, all rookies will be in essentiallly a redshirt year. Why not draft a touted QB who could benefit by such a redshirt year? Then, with grooming, in the coming two years after that, you have a stud in place to carrry on Brady's legacy. I hope BB picks one of the heralded QB's in the draft. That's what an extra pick in the first round is for--to try to hit a home run. Do you really want to add another young player with no pro experience and no time in the playbook to the Pats defense?

 

[PatsFanSince74]

Bingo.

There is no question that BB is the forward-thinking type of guy as it relates to the Qb position. Drafting KOC in the 3rd round illustrates that point. The problem is that the guy was a bust and by many was a projected late-round pick. Everyone misfires on draft day and I'm not to denigrate BB on that point. However unless the guy is a big-time value pick or a sure-fire, productive QB my preference is to wait until the 6th or 7th round to draft a QB. History has been kind to the Pats in that regard

Well said!

Of course, then we're left with the problem of lightening having to strike twice in the same place. Belichick has been very clear; he thought that there were issues with Brady (that there was "something going on there," to use his exact words) because Carr didn't give him the starter's job outright. That Brady dropped to the Pats in the Sixth Round was luck, not savvy drafting.

I just think that, in replacing Brady, the Pats will have their eyes open from the top of the draft all the way to Mr. Irrelevant and decide which risks are worth taking and which risks are not worth taking in the case of a particular individual. Is this particular guy worth the salary and cap risk of a top pick? Is this particular guy worth the risk of taking someone that everybody has pegged for the sixth or seventh round?

 

[convertedpatsfan]

To these eyes, during his last two full seasons, Brady, by playoff time, has had the look of a guy who has the mindset to just "get through" the 16 game regular season. Against the Ravens, he played like a high school quarterback. Against the Jets, he seemed to go into a funk and stay there. It is no coincidence that Yee, Brady's agent, suggested that, if the NFL were to go to an 18 game season, players be allowed only to play 16 games. Not to mention the disconnect between the off-season Brady lifestyle and the harsh combat-like demands of football. Hoyer to succeed TB is dubious. Bottom line, why piddle around with late-round QB prospects? If the NFL lockout lasts into the season, all rookies will be in essentiallly a redshirt year. Why not draft a touted QB who could benefit by such a redshirt year? Then, with grooming, in the coming two years after that, you have a stud in place to carrry on Brady's legacy. I hope BB picks one of the heralded QB's in the draft. That's what an extra pick in the first round is for--to try to hit a home run. Do you really want to add another young player with no pro experience and no time in the playbook to the Pats defense?

Which of the QBs in this draft would you consider heralded? They all have major question marks, and none of them are anywhere close to a Matt Ryan or Sam Bradford.

As for Brady's play-off performances the past two seasons, he wasn't brilliant. The Ravens performance was awful, but that was an awful day for everyone in a Pats uniform. As for the Jets, he wasn't really that bad. I mean he completed 64% of his passes, 2 TDs vs. 1 INT, an 89.0 QBR which is 3 points higher than his play-off average. He wasn't great though, and that team needed him to be great.

Considering he did all that with a stress fracture in his plant foot that required surgery, I've forgiven him for it.

 

[crowell33]

Called it. Mallet is the highest QB ever drafted in the Bill Belichick era. Mallet was drafted before any defensive front seven player by BB in this draft.