Time to groom a QB for future?

[PatsFanSince74]

Brady is the current NFL MVP. Top of his game no question. But he turns 34 this summer. Consider the following:

Montana finished his career in San Francisco at age 36.
Hall of Famer Troy Aikman retired at age 34.
Hall of Famer Terry Bradshaw retired at age 35.
Hall of Famer Dan Fouts retired at age 36.
Hall of Famer Jim Kelley retired at age 36.

No QB in the history of the NFL has ever won a Superbowl past the age of 38, and even that has been done only once ( Elway ).

Assuming it takes a guy like Jake Locker ( or most any other rookie ) at least 2 years before he is ready for prime time, is it worth it to invest a high pick at QB to groom for the future / protect against injury ?

Good data. You left out Bob Griese, another HOFer, who retired at 35.

The average retirement age for an SB era HOF QB is 37.5 and the median is 38. There is a critical mass of the very best who retire at that age:
37: Bart Starr and Roger Staubach.
38: John Elway, Dan Marino, Joe Montana, Fran Tarkenton and Steve Young.

The guys who retired older are either old timers or Warren Moon, who spent many years in the CFL and then hung around a long time after he was effective and retired at 44.
Old Timers: Len Dawson, Sonny Jurgensen and Johnny Unitas all retired at 40.

There have been too many threads lately with a lot of duplicate posts, so please see my post above in response to PatsWickedPissah if you want to know what I think.

 

[PatsFanSince74]

49ers never drafted Young.They got him from the Bucs and he was pretty crappy during that time so the Bucs drafted Testaverde to replace him.

Thanks, that was a brain fart, as I knew it. I'll correct the text.

 

[PatsFanSince74]

Not to mention that it seems clear that BBs preference is to find his next QB by starting with a blank canvass that he can develop in his system.

Andy, I don't want to get into a long word-parsing debate with you, but does fore-casted position in the draft determine whether a QB is one that BB could "develop in his system?"

In other words, I think it's possible to have a QB who can be "develop(ed) in his system" at #1 in the Draft and at #199, just like its possible to have a QB who is "set in his ways" at #1 and at #199.

Assuming that the physical skill set and basic mental aptitude are there, isn't it a matter of assessing the attitude of the individual, no matter where he's slotted by the pundits, that determines whether a QB can be "develop(ed) in his system"?

Sticking to that narrow point, do you see that differently? If so, how would you see that differently?

 

[MoLewisrocks]

Tuna, the great QB selector...

Belichick has had his best luck with guys teetering on UDFA...and there is a reason for that. They tend to be good at things he values that traditional scouts can't see. The last two QB's he took in the 3rd or 4th round couldn't land a starting or even hold a #2 job anywhere. Most college QB's make their mark with their arms or legs. Which is why the position doesn't translate nearly as well at this level as some other positions do. Most of what a QB at this level has to master envolves the space between his ears. Top tier prospects often haven't been challenged to use that space and they aren't necessisarily motivated to cultivate it because they've become conditioned to teams selecting them based on physical tools or building around them based on their skillset. Guys like Brady aren't heavily recruited at any level because scouts don't understand why they just win and often attribute it to random circumstance (the weapons around them or coaching).

Bill hasn't been good enough at picking diamonds out of the rough to risk investing in a potential polished and pre-set diamond being worth the price, with or without Brady still on the roster. Especially in a year when he's been unable to plug roster gaps elsewhere via FA. Better to persue the guy who while believing in himself knows he's a longshot for even a chance to become a starting NFL QB who will do whatever it takes to get that shot and be ready to capitalize on it if and when it comes.

Cassel and Hoyer are two examples of guys who seem up to that task. Although absent the opportunity nobody would ever know it. Cassel got his and took advantage. Hoyer hasn't yet, but he may get his elsewhere based on Cassel. Rohan, Gutierrez, O'Connell were unable to take advantage because they weren't up to the task to begin with. They can all throw the football and run and by all accounts were bright guys. Just either not bright enough or not driven enough or not adaptable enough or humble enough to move away from their comfort zone to make it at the next level. Ditto a couple of other guys Bill showed pre draft interest in that still intrigued him enough to kick their tires when they washed out elsewhere. You could say the same thing about Drew (minus the ability to move at all). Overall intelligence aside, his problem here and eventually elsewhere was his arm strength made it near impossible for him to humbly embrace the concept of adapting and adjusting and developing a football brain between his ears.

O'Connell's selection was a head scratcher for me. Run first, risk taker, a bad play is better than no play, etc. Turns out it was a head scratcher for Bill, too. Maybe that was Josh's bright idea...since it seems while he was capable of coordinating an offense with a HOF QB at it's helm, he wasn't terribly successful picking them or coordinating an offense absent one. Same people who are calling for a replacement now were annointing KOC as it based on his drafting in 2007. LOL He was never more than potential Cassel replacement insurance if Gutierrez failed to develop as he did and a possible future trading chip to be played in a QB starved league had he not also failed to develop.

Too much solid depth at positions of need this strange offseason to waste a 3 on a QB. Better to trade the pick to move up or for a 2 in 2012 if they don't have the roster space to accommodate a more logical pick at that draft slot. There are lots of teams looking to add 2011 picks so it would be a shame to miss that value opportunity to take a flyer on the possibility of locating a backup to the backup QB who still has two years here if they want him to.

 

[VJCPatriot]

FWIW, Phil Simms said yesterday that if Mallett does not turn out to be one of the best 10 players of the draft..............he would retire.

He's already retired from football, what does he have to lose?
It's interesting to see that he's so high on Mallet though.
Physically, Mallett has what you look for in a prototypical QB, 6-6 frame, 235 lbs with a strong arm and a ridiculous 163 career QB rating at the college level.
But doesn't he come with character issues?

To me the Kevin O'Connell selection (3rd) shows that BB is not afraid to take a backup QB in the later rounds of the draft. Just because he struck out with one QB doesn't mean he won't try again. He's struck out on WRs multiple times but continues to take his shots in the 2nd-3rd rounds.

 

[JoeSixPat]

My theory (and it might not be a good theory!) is it's all just scouting and note-taking for guys the Patriots will be facing down the road. I mean, you know you're going to play against these guys eventually; what better way to find out what makes them tick (or not) than some face time?

It's also posturing to inflate the value of the Patriots 1st and 2nd round draft picks...

Teams in need of a QB are quickly realizing that if they want to trade up they may need to overpay... having Belichick express interest in a QB, regardless of whether he wants one in this draft, helps increase the value of the pick in question... i.e. one more team looking to take a QB

Beyond that Brady's got 4 more years on his contract. While I'd love to see him play at a top level well into his 40s it would be stupid to look beyond his current contract.

As such, giving a rookie 4 years to learn the ropes with the hopes of displacing Brady would be a nice luxury.

We've seen the Pats expend a third round pick on a QB when Brady was younger - I wouldn't be surprised to see them do so in this draft, when the need is actually higher... except for the fact that we're talking about a year when there's more intense competition for QBs.

So in this case I expect they'll use a later round draft pick and take a chance with a young, thin QB with some leadership skills who can grow into the job... another skinny 6th round choice perhaps!

 

[crowell33]

He's already retired from football, what does he have to lose?
It's interesting to see that he's so high on Mallet though.
Physically, Mallett has what you look for in a prototypical QB, 6-6 frame, 235 lbs with a strong arm and a ridiculous 163 career QB rating at the college level.
But doesn't he come with character issues?

To me the Kevin O'Connell selection (3rd) shows that BB is not afraid to take a backup QB in the later rounds of the draft. Just because he struck out with one QB doesn't mean he won't try again. He's struck out on WRs multiple times but continues to take his shots in the 2nd-3rd rounds.

Correct. I believe O'Connell was the 96th pick of the draft.

 

[Ghost of Ben Dreith]

I understand and want the Pats to go OL/DL/OLB in the draft....but....I also want Mallett to be in a Patriot's uniform and carry on after Brady is gone.

Every time I watch Mallett play he impresses me with his arm and accuracy downfield...with a bullet on line.

I like Hoyer, but I also think he has a fairly low cieling while Mallet could be the guy to take us into the next decade after Brady...and we wouldn't need to rush him.

This is the time to use a pick for somebody that is a "nice to have" selection.

The bottom line is what BB thinks of him and how his Foxboro interview is.

I really want him here more than any other QB I have seen in a while.

 

[eagle eye]

TJ Yates will do fine this year, no need to spend big picks on a QB just yet. Yates could be very special or a total bust but I just like his attitude.

 

[tasmlab]

I wouldn't spend a 1 or a 2, but I could see the Pats spending a 3 or a 4.

Don't they take a QB every year somewhere in the draft? Kevin McConnell, Zac, Cassell. It would be a surprise if the didn't take a QB.

 

[Rob0729]

If the Pats are going to take Mallet, they may have to trade up into the top 10 since the rumor is now that the Redskins are going to take him at #10. With all the hype about the QBs in this draft, they are going to go early. Which means (at least IMHO) the Pats aren't going to take one in the first round and this is all a smoke screen to generate a buzz about Mallett and Locker so teams will want to trade with the Pats for #28 or #33.

 

[reflexblue]

If the Pats are going to take Mallet, they may have to trade up into the top 10 since the rumor is now that the Redskins are going to take him at #10. With all the hype about the QBs in this draft, they are going to go early. Which means (at least IMHO) the Pats aren't going to take one in the first round and this is all a smoke screen to generate a buzz about Mallett and Locker so teams will want to trade with the Pats for #28 or #33.

Some teams are just good at drafting certain positions. The pats are good at finding QB's they don't need to pick one high in the draft, they've proven they can find on in the later rounds.

 

[Rob0729]

Some teams are just good at drafting certain positions. The pats are good at finding QB's they don't need to pick one high in the draft, they've proven they can find on in the later rounds.

It is ironic that the Pats have drafted something like 6 QBs in the Belichick era (maybe seven) and the only two that have panned out were drafted in the sixth and seventh round. The early round QBs were busts (O'Connell and Davey).

 

[reflexblue]

It is ironic that the Pats have drafted something like 6 QBs in the Belichick era (maybe seven) and the only two that have panned out were drafted in the sixth and seventh round. The early round QBs were busts (O'Connell and Davey).

Thats what i was thinking, they're more successful in the later rounds. Although i didn't realize they had drafted six QBs since BB has been here.

 

[townes]

They can start thinking about Brady's replacement four years from now, no need to do anything before then.

 

[VJCPatriot]

They can start thinking about Brady's replacement four years from now, no need to do anything before then.

There's something to be said for that. But then again there's something to be said for having a guy who has a couple years of experience holding the clipboard before he's actually called on to play in a real game. We would be drafting for the future here. It looks like historically the retirement age for even franchise QBs is around age 38. So drafting one now and getting him ready might not be a bad investment.

Mallet's physical profile reminds me of Drew Bledsoe or Big Ben. Strong, tall QBs with big arms who can take a hit before delivering the ball. How mobile is Mallet in the pocket? Is he a statue or can he run some? In any case I wouldn't expect Mallet to go before round 2. If the Redskins in fact take Mallet in Round 1 that would be a sign of desperation from them.

 

[BradyManny]

Too soon - he just won his 2nd MVP title in his last 3 healthy seasons and was rewarded with about an $18 million per year contract. I don't think we can afford to invest much more in the position - especially when his backup has looked rather effective in what time he's had.

 

[Uncle Rico]

So Mallett might not be the guy ...

Source: Mallett skips out on meeting with Panthers | National Football Post

Mallett met team officials for dinner April 8, the day he arrived in town, but meetings the next day at Bank of America Stadium were cancelled after Mallett called and said he was sick, multiple sources told the National Football Post.

Complicating the matter is the fact sources said Mallett was seen out on the town late following the dinner.

 

[patfanken]

They can start thinking about Brady's replacement four years from now, no need to do anything before then.

"Time to groom a QB for the Future? A resounding, unmitigated, echoing, unequivocal, definitive, absolute..... NO!!!!!!!!!.....Though I think townsie is off by a couple of years. Tom Brady's replacement is likely either getting ready for his senior year in college or going into his freshman year.

Now if you think you can improve on Hoyer, that's another story.....in the VERY late rounds. We can always use another camp arm (though I think we can easily get more talented ready to play back up in FA than anywhere in this draft after the first round. )

In fact if Chad Pennington was available for just above the vet minimum I'd be willing to keep 3 QBs on the roster this season.....maybe

In two years if some guy you REALLY REALLY liked became available I'd think about it. If not Townsie is going to be right and it will be 3 or 4 years. Ideally if his replacement is a rookie you'd like to time it out so that he'd sit behind Brady for just a year, 2 max.

Personally I believe the next starting QB for the Pats is going to be a guy who already has NFL experience. Every year there are always a few very solid vet FA QBs who would love the opportunity to come to a situation like the Pats. This should be true whenever Brady decides to hang them up.

 

[ctpatsfan77]

Rohan, Gutierrez, O'Connell were unable to take advantage because they weren't up to the task to begin with. They can all throw the football and run and by all accounts were bright guys. Just either not bright enough or not driven enough or not adaptable enough or humble enough to move away from their comfort zone to make it at the next level.

I still wonder what exactly happened to O'Connell; somehow I think it had something to do with McDaniels leaving.

As far as Gutierrez goes, I think it was more a numbers issue than anything else: they had Cassel as #2 in 2007 (with two years in the system), Cassel as #2 and O'Connell in 2008.

In any case, though, wasn't there a knock on Davey that his grasp on the playbook was about as strong as Bethel Johnson's?