4 weeks to go before the draft - which is still a very long time - and I find myself split three ways on whether the Patriots will trade up, down, or stay where they are. Despite all the predictions of the Pats grabbing a corner at #7 (McKelvin in most Mocks) my gut feeling is that such a pick is the default "best player available" for the Pats if Vernon Gholston is gone. I think that's the guy the Pats want (well, at least that's the guy I want) but everyone expects MangIdiot will beat us to the punch at #6.) As such I don't think the Pats would hesitate to make a trade to move up to #5. Doing so would "cost" them 200 trade value chart points - the equivilent of a mid 3rd round pick (along with the additional signing bonus $$) It's also really not hard to imagine a scenario in which the Chiefs trade with the Pats and still get the guy they want at #7 plus a 3rd rounder or whatever the trade is for. Just as likely in my mind is the chance that Dallas, despite their talk about not being interested in moving up, is prepared to go for it all this season (the notion of Pacman going there only reaffirms that) and that the guy they really want is Darren McFadden. Depending on how the draft shakes out, McFadden could be there at #7 and Dallas' picks at 22 and 28 aren't that far off from the 1500 trade value points (they total 1440 - but Jerry Jones and I think most folks agree the high cost of signing top picks is a factor as well). So if the Pats don't trade up and the Jets grab Gholston, my gut is telling me that a trade with Dallas is more likely than the Pats using their #7 pick. A third scenario involves Belichick spooking MangIdiot into trading up himself, to circumvent a Patriots trade to #5 to grab Gholston. I could definately see how Belichick could orchestrate a situation forcing MangIdiot to waste 200 trade value points (i.e. a third rounder) and expending that much more salary cap space to grab a guy they'd likely have at #6 anyway. I can see that happening even if Belichick's intent all along having been to trade back with Dallas and acquire another 1st round pick. I find myself warming to this scenario most of all, even though I like Gholston and have no idea who the Pats would take at 22 and 28. But for some reason I'm just getting the feeling that staying at #7 is the LEAST likely scenario - in part because the numbers seem to work well on the trade value, mock drafts of players likely to be available, and Belichick's ability to choose players well later in the first round. The bottom line is that no one knows what's going to happen - and that there are going to be a ton of changes in draft predictions in the next few weeks. By the end of Day 1 I expect that no matter what happens, I'll be pleased with our picks.