The possibilities of trading either up or down

[JoeSixPat]

4 weeks to go before the draft - which is still a very long time - and I find myself split three ways on whether the Patriots will trade up, down, or stay where they are.

Despite all the predictions of the Pats grabbing a corner at #7 (McKelvin in most Mocks) my gut feeling is that such a pick is the default "best player available" for the Pats if Vernon Gholston is gone.

I think that's the guy the Pats want (well, at least that's the guy I want) but everyone expects MangIdiot will beat us to the punch at #6.)

As such I don't think the Pats would hesitate to make a trade to move up to #5. Doing so would "cost" them 200 trade value chart points - the equivilent of a mid 3rd round pick (along with the additional signing bonus $$) It's also really not hard to imagine a scenario in which the Chiefs trade with the Pats and still get the guy they want at #7 plus a 3rd rounder or whatever the trade is for.

Just as likely in my mind is the chance that Dallas, despite their talk about not being interested in moving up, is prepared to go for it all this season (the notion of Pacman going there only reaffirms that) and that the guy they really want is Darren McFadden.

Depending on how the draft shakes out, McFadden could be there at #7 and Dallas' picks at 22 and 28 aren't that far off from the 1500 trade value points (they total 1440 - but Jerry Jones and I think most folks agree the high cost of signing top picks is a factor as well). So if the Pats don't trade up and the Jets grab Gholston, my gut is telling me that a trade with Dallas is more likely than the Pats using their #7 pick.

A third scenario involves Belichick spooking MangIdiot into trading up himself, to circumvent a Patriots trade to #5 to grab Gholston. I could definately see how Belichick could orchestrate a situation forcing MangIdiot to waste 200 trade value points (i.e. a third rounder) and expending that much more salary cap space to grab a guy they'd likely have at #6 anyway. I can see that happening even if Belichick's intent all along having been to trade back with Dallas and acquire another 1st round pick.

I find myself warming to this scenario most of all, even though I like Gholston and have no idea who the Pats would take at 22 and 28. But for some reason I'm just getting the feeling that staying at #7 is the LEAST likely scenario - in part because the numbers seem to work well on the trade value, mock drafts of players likely to be available, and Belichick's ability to choose players well later in the first round.

The bottom line is that no one knows what's going to happen - and that there are going to be a ton of changes in draft predictions in the next few weeks. By the end of Day 1 I expect that no matter what happens, I'll be pleased with our picks.

 

[Brady'sButtBoy]

I had initially thought only Ryan and McFadden to be trade targets for teams below us. But after Dorsey's big work out and the way Ellis is steadily gaining momentum, I see several more possibilites of trades working out. I'm sticking with my theory, however, that Ryan is the real lynchpin of the top of the draft. If he somehow falls to us - I highly doubt it - we will find a trade partner. Dorsey, Ellis, McFadden, I'm not sure they really make teams feel they need to move up, these three could tempt teams but Ryan would be the biggest bait of all.

 

[alvinnf]

Down better than up, Draft is short on DT's. If one of the big 2 is on the board at seven, there should be a couple suitors.

 

[JoeSixPat]

Down better than up, Draft is short on DT's. If one of the big 2 is on the board at seven, there should be a couple suitors.

I'm primarilly focusing on Dallas and their interest at #7 with their two picks and near equal draft trade value to our 1500 points.

That's not to say another team wouldn't throw in next year's #1 pick but that's always taking a chance (though it worked out well this year).

In a draft where picks 10-30 are probably about the same talent level I'd expect that if given a choice between two #1s this year or next Belichick - given the fact that we actually do have a few needs - would choose this year, making Dallas the preferred trading partner.

But most also agree that Gholston would fit well in our system (and finding LBs that do fit in our system via the draft is very difficult) and is a game breaking player. Taking a player like that away from a Division rival, while addressing a key area of need on our team, makes a 200 point move up to #5 just as likely or desireable.

This is the main scenario I'm keeping my eye on these days but of course it all depends on who goes 1-4. If the Jets haven't made a preventive move to get up to #4 and Gholston's available at #5 I expect some serious discussions with KC. At that point the Jets likely get involved in discussions as well.

Even if Belichick isn't truly interested in moving up I think he goes through this charade of sort just to force the Jets to expend some capital to block the Patriots.

Such a move just to bluff their way into getting the Jets to spend more in terms of draft picks and salary cap space would be true to form for the Patriots.

 

[alvinnf]

I'm primarilly focusing on Dallas and their interest at #7 with their two picks and near equal draft trade value to our 1500 points.

That's not to say another team wouldn't throw in next year's #1 pick but that's always taking a chance (though it worked out well this year).

In a draft where picks 10-30 are probably about the same talent level I'd expect that if given a choice between two #1s this year or next Belichick - given the fact that we actually do have a few needs - would choose this year, making Dallas the preferred trading partner.

But most also agree that Gholston would fit well in our system (and finding LBs that do fit in our system via the draft is very difficult) and is a game breaking player. Taking a player like that away from a Division rival, while addressing a key area of need on our team, makes a 200 point move up to #5 just as likely or desireable.

This is the main scenario I'm keeping my eye on these days but of course it all depends on who goes 1-4. If the Jets haven't made a preventive move to get up to #4 and Gholston's available at #5 I expect some serious discussions with KC. At that point the Jets likely get involved in discussions as well.

Even if Belichick isn't truly interested in moving up I think he goes through this charade of sort just to force the Jets to expend some capital to block the Patriots.

Such a move just to bluff their way into getting the Jets to spend more in terms of draft picks and salary cap space would be true to form for the Patriots.

I would'nt be shocked if Vernon does'nt get to 2, if he does , your right the jets will clammoring in the dark as quickly as possible to load their gun to shoot themselves in the foot.. The Jets......

 

[Seneschal2]

Regarding a tradedown, here's just one scenario...

If Clady makes it past the Chiefs at #5, he'll make it to #7. The #2 ranked OT may represent excellent trade value for teams at #'s 13 & 14 (Panthers, Bears). Both teams have shown serious interest in Clady. In those slots, the Pats may be able to select Groves or a CB (Cason).

In addition to that first-rounder, the Pats could swap positions in round two -- #62 for #43 or #44. If not enough, throw in the Panthers/Bears '09 third-rounder as well. With such a trade, it's possible for the Pats to land OLB/DE Groves and CB Flowers, or CB Cason and OLB/DE Avril in just the first two rounds. Also, with two third-rounders available, one could be used in any necessary tradeup from #43 or #44, if we're targeting a specific player.

 

[dryheat44]

Regarding a tradedown, here's just one scenario...

If Clady makes it past the Chiefs at #5, he'll make it to #7. The #2 ranked OT may represent excellent trade value for teams at #'s 13 & 14 (Panthers, Bears). Both teams have shown serious interest in Clady. In those slots, the Pats may be able to select Groves or a CB (Cason).

Why exactly? Why couldn't a team like the Panthers or Bears trade up to #6 to take Clady?

 

[mike100915]

I think a team could trade up to #6 with the Jets, but would the Jets really want to move out of their pick, when there is really 6 excellent players in this draft. After pick#6 there is kind of a drop off in talent. I don't think the Jets will move out of there pick. They need some real talent on that team. Whether it be McFadden or Gholston, I don't think the Jets move out, unless there are completly bowled over. They are going for it now, and by moving down a bit in the draft that won't happen them as much this year.

 

[Seneschal2]

Why exactly? Why couldn't a team like the Panthers or Bears trade up to #6 to take Clady?

Suppose they could. So EXACTLY what are the needs of the Jets and Pats?

 

[dryheat44]

I think a team could trade up to #6 with the Jets, but would the Jets really want to move out of their pick, when there is really 6 excellent players in this draft. After pick#6 there is kind of a drop off in talent. I don't think the Jets will move out of there pick. They need some real talent on that team. Whether it be McFadden or Gholston, I don't think the Jets move out, unless there are completly bowled over. They are going for it now, and by moving down a bit in the draft that won't happen them as much this year.

You could make the same argument in support of the Jets trading down to get two picks in the top 40. Do you think the Jets would be better served with the #6 pick, or the #22 and #28, for example? I guess if they thought that McFadden was a perenial all-pro and miles ahead of every other RB in the draft, they'd turn down the trade. But they're competent in the front office (if not the coaching staff). I think they'd rather have Jon Stewart and Kentwan Balmer.

 

[JoePats]

I agree w/ dryheat. The Jets could theoretically be a real pain in terms of the Pats trading down.

 

[BelichickFan]

My gut feeling is the Jets won't trade down. I think the Patriots picking right after them will make them feel like they have to take the right guy, if not they'll be criticized (and perhaps fired) for leaving (fill in the blank) to the Patriots. Especially if Gholston is sitting there.

As of now my mock says :

Miami - C. Long
Rams - Dorsey
Falcons - Ryan
Raiders - McFadden
Chiefs - Clady or Otah
Jets - Gholston
PATRIOTS - I would expect a trade down with someone wanting Ellis at this point.

 

[JoePats]

Why wouldn't the Chiefs take J Long?

Though the Pats could clean up if that was the case because a lot of teams would want J Long.

 

[Jimke]

I think a team could trade up to #6 with the Jets, but would the Jets really want to move out of their pick, when there is really 6 excellent players in this draft. After pick#6 there is kind of a drop off in talent. I don't think the Jets will move out of there pick. They need some real talent on that team. Whether it be McFadden or Gholston, I don't think the Jets move out, unless there are completly bowled over. They are going for it now, and by moving down a bit in the draft that won't happen them as much this year.

The Jets will take the same approach as last year, quality over

quantity. They should end up with two solid starters by drafting

6th and 36th. Maybe, they can combine late round picks with their

4th round pick and move back into the 3rd round.

When the rosters are cut to 53 players, the Jets will add a couple of

the Pats 2008 draft choices to bring along as developmental

players.

 

[ctpatsfan77]

Why wouldn't the Chiefs take J Long?

Though the Pats could clean up if that was the case because a lot of teams would want J Long.

Nothing would make me happier than a bidding war for the Pats' pick.

 

[dryheat44]

Why wouldn't the Chiefs take J Long?

Though the Pats could clean up if that was the case because a lot of teams would want J Long.

I expect it would take a real sweetheart of a deal. I think Belichick would be extremely happy to draft Jake Long. In fact, I doubt the Pats would trade the pick.

 

[BelichickFan]

My gut feeling is the Jets won't trade down. I think the Patriots picking right after them will make them feel like they have to take the right guy, if not they'll be criticized (and perhaps fired) for leaving (fill in the blank) to the Patriots. Especially if Gholston is sitting there.

As of now my mock says :

Miami - C. Long
Rams - Dorsey
Falcons - Ryan
Raiders - McFadden
Chiefs - J. Long
Jets - Gholston
PATRIOTS - I would expect a trade down with someone wanting Ellis at this point.

Why wouldn't the Chiefs take J Long?

Crap I blew that one

Corrected . . .

It actually makes it more realistic looking as I think Clady or Otah would be a little high at #5 but I really think the Chiefs will take an OL.

 

[ctpatsfan77]

Why exactly? Why couldn't a team like the Panthers or Bears trade up to #6 to take Clady?

Because there's no rational reason for the JEST to sign an OL at this point, so you'd just be overpaying to get a player you should be able to get at #7 (or even lower).

 

[dryheat44]

The Jets will take the same approach as last year, quality over

quantity. They should end up with two solid starters by drafting

6th and 36th. Maybe, they can combine late round picks with their

4th round pick and move back into the 3rd round.

When the rosters are cut to 53 players, the Jets will add a couple of

the Pats 2008 draft choices to bring along as developmental

players.

They would also end up with three solid starters drafting at 22, 28, and 36. Again, unless they think whomever is at #6 (McFadden in this thread) is miles above the field, trading down is probably the wiser move. Maybe they trade 28 and 36 to move up to the 18-21 range if there's a guy they really, really, like there. I can't imagine a smart front office drafting a RB at #6 unless you're going to give him 25 carries a game and are confident he can handle the load. I'm not sure McFadden is that guy.

 

[BradyManny]

OK, this is probably scary/nerdy that I'm dreaming about the draft, but I had a dream that Oakland took Gholston at #4 and then traded with us for #7 to get McFadden. Now, I don't remember details more than that, but b/c it was a non-nonsensical dream, they probably traded a fleet of unicorns and leprachauns for #7 for all I know, but when I woke up, I realized the idea of them trading their 09 1st & 2nd and their 08 2nd to us for #7 wasn't the most absurd thing my subconscious ever came up with. Hmm. Anyway....

Back in reality, I do think that the idea of at least partially trading into 09's first round is probably the fall-back if we can't find a suitable trading partner for 08.

I also think a trade that doesn't move us many spots (ie, trading with NO or Carolina) is another legit scenario. I think 7 for 13 & 43 with Carolina fits. That would work beautifully for us. That would really make me forget that Goodell stole our own 1st rounder.