Statistical evidence Colts favored by Refs

[FilPats]

The NFL cannot continue to ignore this statistical impossibility/anomaly.

 

[jamin3204]

This just confirms what I've always believed and that is that Bill Polian has intimidated these officials to the point of fear. You see it every game the Colts play, the officials fear the wrath of Polian the following Monday, it's corruption to the nth degree.............

If you really believe this, your a sick man.

 

[PatsFan24]

The NFL wants the Colts to win the super bowl, because they know they attract a big audience with that high powered offense, and with peyton manning being the advertisment man in the nfl. remember the steelers colts playoff game in jan 2006? if you watched that game and did not think there was something going on, then you just do not what to see it. Just like why the PI rule wont be changed, and why so many QBs are overprotected, the nfl only cares about money, and the best way to get money and interst in the game is a lot of points being scored. Have you ever watched a game and seen a QB just barley get touched and they call a 15 yard penalty? Of course you have, that could be because the NFL puts pressure on the officals to make those calls to get the offense down the field. The game is rigged.

 

[Bostonian1962]

Maybe its just possible that the Colts don't commit that many penalties, where does it say in the rule book that the refs have to call the same amount of penalties on each team?

A predictable response, except, we saw in the Pats - Colts game the refs made a bunch of calls against the Patriots that were not penalties, or should not have been.

Is that the norm? My guess is yes.

 

[NEGoldenAge]

A 10 game pool and the eye test are not damning evidence to get the Colts convicted, as it's not solid proof. It is, however, enough to warrant an investigation and is very "fishy".

 

[Miguel]

Do you have the numbers for the 2006 season???
2005 season??
2004 season???

 

[BradyToMoss]

The Chargers game had alot of bad calls against the Colts including a quick whistle that cost us a touchdown or at least a FG...I didn't complain about it because we played so bad in that game we didn't deserve to win anyway..

BS, the quick whistle on that play caused ALL of the Charger players to stop, Sessions would not have made it past the 20 yard line, don't give us that.

Bill Polian is in the back pocket of these officials, Mike Perreira included, and that cannot be denied and something really has to be done about it.

 

[makewayhomer]

A 10 game pool and the eye test are not damning evidence to get the Colts convicted, as it's not solid proof. It is, however, enough to warrant an investigation and is very "fishy".

it's not fishy at all, in and of itself.

#1) it's perfectly possibly that 1 team is more guilty of penalties than another

#2) until you know the difference in the type of penalties being called, these 'stats" mean even less. ie, are they all 'objective' calls like Facemasks, False Start, etc? or are they all more subjective calls like Pass Interference, Holding, etc?

I saw this on another board:

"Being EXTREMELY conservative with my criteria, the Pats have 28 objective penalties. That is including basically only facemasks, offsides, false starts and delays of game. I didnt even count unsportsmanlikes (of which there were a surprisingly high number) or blocks in the back or anything like that. So, the Pats have nearly as many objective penalties as the Colts do total penalties."

 

[NYPatsFan]

Citing Wikipedia as an authoritive source for something like this which has no clearly verifiable facts is comical. Wikipedia is user-edited, and it ostensibly strives for a neutral point of view but often fails. Anyone, *anyone*, can edit what they want and unless someone else cares enough to change it it will sit there looking official. I could change that entry to read "Don Shula served on the rules committee and his teams were always among the least penalized in the NFL due to his policy of paying for Miami Beach prostitutes to service visiting referees" and it would be accepted until someone decided to change it.

You are correct, but the entry about Shula's teams being the least penalized and him serving on the rules committee also happens to be true. Now, the part about Shula hiring prostitutes is between you, Don Shula and the prostitutes. Don't ask, don't tell.

 

[godef]

I know what my eyes tell me. But I still had to check it out for myself.

Every Monday morning when I read the paper, it seems like the box scores show the Colts getting called for far fewer penalties than thier opponent.

What I do know about the Colts is that they are a fast defensive/offensive team, but they are well-documented as to having given up size for speed.

Common sense tells me that speed is helpful in skill positions but in the trenches, there is no substituting strength and brute force. Yet somehow, the Colts manage to be rarely called for holding. But as we have all witnessed, the Colts game plan every game is to hold as much as possible. It is truly shocking what they can get away with.

So, I dug up the last 10 games the Patriots played this year and what the penalties were and the last 10 games the Colts played and thier penalties.

Here is what I found:

Patriot Penalties 54 for 516 yards

Patriot Opponents 60 for 466 yards


Colt Penalties 36 for 235 yards

Colt Opponents 57 for 505 yards

This is a massive difference. It speaks for itself. I have not had the time to look into what the each NFL team has been penalized to this point but this is clearly favoratism. I would be willing to bet that a statatician would say that things balance out over the course of a season but this can only be explained as an anomoly. Or, statistical proof that the Colts are being helped by the refs.

For what it's worth, fast players tend to cause problems for opponents as they need to resort to holding, etc.

That said however, I note in your stats that the penalties for Colts opponents appear to be on par (compared to the Pats/opponents numbers); what is disturbing is the lack of penalties called on the Colts.

 

[PatsWickedPissah]

If I were BB working my butt off 24/7 and delivering the goods, I would be a bit POed that my boss Bob Kraft has not seen fit to get someone from the Pats on the competition committee to both monitor and offset Bill Polian's insidious influence. With all that goes into a Patriots season, the work by draft scouts, coaches, players et. al. it seems a shame to leave one potentially massive influence totally uncontrolled.

 

[hambone1818]

http://msn.foxsports.com/nfl/sortab...fense&stable=downs&stat=penYds&dir=descending

Number of penalties and yards called on each team. I don't have the time to find the number of penalty yards called on opponents, and that would be a more telling statistic combined with the above numbers.

Colts #2 on the list with 309 penalty yards called against them, just 4 yards ahead of #1 Seattle and 50 fewer than #3, the NYJ. Patriots are middle of the pack with 532 while the most penalized team is Arizona with 875.

Make of this what you will, but I will say that this would have to be combined with the yards against opponent to make any kind of analysis.

 

[Buchanty]

If I were BB working my butt off 24/7 and delivering the goods, I would be a bit POed that my boss Bob Kraft has not seen fit to get someone from the Pats on the competition committee to both monitor and offset Bill Polian's insidious influence. With all that goes into a Patriots season, the work by draft scouts, coaches, players et. al. it seems a shame to leave one potentially massive influence totally uncontrolled.

What you say is true - the NFL committees are an area of potentially massive influence which remains undocumented and as far as the other 20 odd teams in the NFL are concerned "uncontrolled". If parity is to be realized then it would be fairer if the current elite were not represented, though selecting that as a criterion is flawed. It would be better to have a rotation so that all teams can have representation. I would only add a time limit of 4 years for any representation.

 

[speed]

If I were BB working my butt off 24/7 and delivering the goods, I would be a bit POed that my boss Bob Kraft has not seen fit to get someone from the Pats on the competition committee to both monitor and offset Bill Polian's insidious influence. With all that goes into a Patriots season, the work by draft scouts, coaches, players et. al. it seems a shame to leave one potentially massive influence totally uncontrolled.

I've thought this all along, if this entity is as powerful as many believe on this board, I would want my team to have a rep on it.

 

[PatsFanSince74]

I know what my eyes tell me. But I still had to check it out for myself.
I would be willing to bet that a statatician would say that things balance out over the course of a season but this can only be explained as an anomoly. Or, statistical proof that the Colts are being helped by the refs.

thanks for doing this analysis. it certainly suggests a smoking gun. I don't think a statistician would say that this would balance out, but there's not enough to draw conclusions either since it's only data for two teams.

I wish I had the time to do it, but the analysis that would nail the coffin shut about colts favoritism would be to look at all 32 teams this year, looking at the number of penalties called for and against, the yards penalized and the yards per penalty. we could then do some meaningful statistical tests of the patriots and colts vs. the rest of the nfl.

it would also be great if we could break out the long defensive Pass Interference penalties from the more frequent holding and false start calls. seeing if there is any difference in the advantage that a home team gets from crowd noise on false starts would be interesting as well.

 

[makewayhomer]

it would also be great if we could break out the long defensive Pass Interference penalties from the more frequent holding and false start calls.

I already linked to something like that above.

if the Pats have 1,000 more penalty yards, but they are all due to an additional 200 False Start penalties (which are called very accurately the vast majority of the team), then that is a perfectly valid explanation.

ditto for lining up in the neutral zone, facemask, etc, things which are basically automatic calls for any team.

and even if there IS a big difference in Pass Interference penalties, a perfectly logical explanation could be "the Pats play more aggressive and with more contact".

you can't just look at Total Penalty Yards and come to any meaningful conclusion

 

[Ring 6]

I dont think statistics are proof.
But it is very curious to me when against Atl on Tgiving night, there was a play that looked like a horsecollar, that was not called. Then Manning went over to the ref, talked to him, and THEN he threw the flag, at least a full 45 seconds after the play.

 

[SamBam39]

it's clear the pansy colts need the league's help to compete.
that's why they're hanging now after years of showing what they're really made of.

the stats, the constant complaints by teams, that play them, and of course, common sense and what your eyes see tell us the refs and the league are in the bag.

so what can be done about it? complaining on a fan message board isn't enough. are we forced to just let the league decide the champion each year and manipulate game results through insulting refereeing?

the coaches get fined if they talk and the broadcasters and media aren't going to say it, so where do we go with these statitics showing a 43% drop in colts penalties, etc. ? Is there an answer od are we forced to be victims to this shame?

 

[Joker]

the first rule that should be drafted this offseason is that the QB CANNOT approach the refs and beg for a call after the play is over...call it the "Peytie Pout Rule"

 

[elandadem]

As the last thing the NFL wanted was another Dan Marino (QB breaks a ton of records yet never wins the Super Bowl) I had hoped that once Peyton (isn't that a girl's name) Manning won a ring, the NFL would cease its blatant favoritism.

I was wrong.

What we need is an Affirmative Action program for the NFL.

From now on, in order to overcome the pro Colts bias inherent in the system, every other team must be flagged for two separate penalties before the lesser of the two is enforced.

All penalties against the Colts are doubled (e.g. Offensive Holding is 20 yards, not 10; Illegal Contact is 10 yards and 2 automatic First Downs, not 5 yards and 1). This might even the playing field.