Remember folks, he's just a KICKER

[Mooch]

Know what the difference between a career 81% FG kicker (Adam V.) and a career 75% FG kicker (Paul Edinger) is over the past 6 years?

If you pro-rate Edinger's 75% rate against AV's 188 attempts over 6 seasons, you can assume that Edinger makes 141 Field Goals in that time span. AV made 156 in that same time period. A difference of 15 field goals over 6 years gives you an average of 2.5 FGs per season -- A total of 7.5 points per year. That's little more than one TD.

Now suppose the "downgrade" from AV to Paul Edinger saves you somewhere in the neighborhood of $1.5 million per season -- Which enables you to get a player like say, Eric Moulds instead of David Givens.

Over Givens 4 seasons with the Pats, he scored 12 TDs, or 72 points. Moulds? 20 TDs (120 points) in that same time frame. That's a 48 point upgrade, or a whopping 12 points per season.

Now understand that this "math" is heavily dependant on a lot of things -- WR opportunities in the end zone, offense playcalling/scheme etc... HOWEVER, the point is pretty clear:

A $1.5 million upgrade/downgrade in your kicker is usually less important than a $1.5 million swing in your starting WR. IF the Patriots can add a talent like Moulds for $1.5 million per year over what they would have paid Givens, and Edinger for $1.5 mil less than Vinatieri recieved then it's probably a net gain when it's all said and done.

Word to the wise: DON'T PANIC. Yet.

 

[shakadave]

Know what the difference between a career 81% FG kicker (Adam V.) and a career 75% FG kicker (Paul Edinger) is over the past 6 years?

If you pro-rate Edinger's 75% rate against AV's 188 attempts over 6 seasons, you can assume that Edinger makes 141 Field Goals in that time span. AV made 156 in that same time period. A difference of 15 field goals over 6 years gives you an average of 2.5 FGs per season -- A total of 7.5 points per year. That's little more than one TD.

Now suppose the "downgrade" from AV to Paul Edinger saves you somewhere in the neighborhood of $1.5 million per season -- Which enables you to get a player like say, Eric Moulds instead of David Givens.

Over Givens 4 seasons with the Pats, he scored 12 TDs, or 72 points. Moulds? 20 TDs (120 points) in that same time frame. That's a 48 point upgrade, or a whopping 12 points per season.

Now understand that this "math" is heavily dependant on a lot of things -- WR opportunities in the end zone, offense playcalling/scheme etc... HOWEVER, the point is pretty clear:

A $1.5 million upgrade/downgrade in your kicker is usually less important than a $1.5 million swing in your starting WR. IF the Patriots can add a talent like Moulds for $1.5 million per year over what they would have paid Givens, and Edinger for $1.5 mil less than Vinatieri recieved then it's probably a net gain when it's all said and done.

Word to the wise: DON'T PANIC. Yet.

Great analysis: this is a good slightly-new way to explain the Pats MO.

I do worry when Keyshawn jokes about playing for $5 in New England. I'll never cease to be amazed how greedy pro athletes are. If AV took the Patriots' offer, say 2.2 million a year with a $2m signing bonus, he could buy a very nice car, build an indoor swimming pool addition on his house, and still afford to eat lunch at Legal Seafood 3 times a week. Are these guys all trying to buy car dealerships or something?

 

[Mooch]

And my math was originally wrong on the WR upgrade, too! Lack of coffee this am...

8 TDs = 48 point upgrade. Over 4 years that's 12 points per year -- Or a 2 TD upgrade each season. That's nearly 100% improvement.

 

[SeanBruschi54]

Know what the difference between a career 81% FG kicker (Adam V.) and a career 75% FG kicker (Paul Edinger) is over the past 6 years?

If you pro-rate Edinger's 75% rate against AV's 188 attempts over 6 seasons, you can assume that Edinger makes 141 Field Goals in that time span. AV made 156 in that same time period. A difference of 15 field goals over 6 years gives you an average of 2.5 FGs per season -- A total of 7.5 points per year. That's little more than one TD.

Now suppose the "downgrade" from AV to Paul Edinger saves you somewhere in the neighborhood of $1.5 million per season -- Which enables you to get a player like say, Eric Moulds instead of David Givens.

Over Givens 4 seasons with the Pats, he scored 12 TDs, or 72 points. Moulds? 20 TDs (120 points) in that same time frame. That's a 48 point upgrade, or a whopping 12 points per season.

Now understand that this "math" is heavily dependant on a lot of things -- WR opportunities in the end zone, offense playcalling/scheme etc... HOWEVER, the point is pretty clear:

A $1.5 million upgrade/downgrade in your kicker is usually less important than a $1.5 million swing in your starting WR. IF the Patriots can add a talent like Moulds for $1.5 million per year over what they would have paid Givens, and Edinger for $1.5 mil less than Vinatieri recieved then it's probably a net gain when it's all said and done.

Word to the wise: DON'T PANIC. Yet.

I understand your reasoning and rationale very well but theres one variable you didn't include in for any of the players and that variable is "X" which would stand for age.

Age is very important when calculating anything with players and production and decline.

If you could somehow add in age and declined production in an analysis then you'd have a perfect chart.

I can do it but it takes a bit.

 

[PatsFan4eva]

And my math was originally wrong on the WR upgrade, too! Lack of coffee this am...

8 TDs = 48 point upgrade. Over 4 years that's 12 points per year -- Or a 2 TD upgrade each season. That's nearly 100% improvement.

so you put it like that.... sounds good. Now, will it happen? THAT is a whole different equation.

 

[JoeSixPat]

I agree with your overall point - Don't Panic

But to say that Adam V. is "just a kicker" is like saying that Tom Brady is "just a QB" or that Vince Lombardi was "just a coach"

Adam V. is "just the all-time leading scorer of the franchise". One shouldn't minimize that.

 

[Mooch]

But to say that Adam V. is "just a kicker" is like saying that Tom Brady is "just a QB" or that Vince Lombardi was "just a coach"

I think you're 100% wrong on this.

The difference between AV and the average kicker in NFL history is a hell of a lot closer than Tom Brady and the average QB or Lombardi and the average coach.

Let's think of it in terms of relative value at the position. Having a Pro Bowl kicker isn't nearly as valuable as having a pro bowler at almost every other position on the field, except for punter. I think it's pretty safe to say that if the Patriots improve at WR, LB and DB, they can still win with a league-average kicker.

 

[brdmaverick]

just a kicker?

tell that to the '05 Cowboys or '04 Jets

 

[aabtec]

Know what the difference between a career 81% FG kicker (Adam V.) and a career 75% FG kicker (Paul Edinger) is over the past 6 years?

If you pro-rate Edinger's 75% rate against AV's 188 attempts over 6 seasons, you can assume that Edinger makes 141 Field Goals in that time span. AV made 156 in that same time period. A difference of 15 field goals over 6 years gives you an average of 2.5 FGs per season -- A total of 7.5 points per year. That's little more than one TD.

Now suppose the "downgrade" from AV to Paul Edinger saves you somewhere in the neighborhood of $1.5 million per season -- Which enables you to get a player like say, Eric Moulds instead of David Givens.

Over Givens 4 seasons with the Pats, he scored 12 TDs, or 72 points. Moulds? 20 TDs (120 points) in that same time frame. That's a 48 point upgrade, or a whopping 12 points per season.

Now understand that this "math" is heavily dependant on a lot of things -- WR opportunities in the end zone, offense playcalling/scheme etc... HOWEVER, the point is pretty clear:

A $1.5 million upgrade/downgrade in your kicker is usually less important than a $1.5 million swing in your starting WR. IF the Patriots can add a talent like Moulds for $1.5 million per year over what they would have paid Givens, and Edinger for $1.5 mil less than Vinatieri recieved then it's probably a net gain when it's all said and done.

Word to the wise: DON'T PANIC. Yet.

There are lies...damn lies..and then Statistics...2 SB winning kicks..
need I say more ?

 

[Mooch]

just a kicker?

tell that to the '05 Cowboys or '04 Jets

Yeah, it really makes sense to put a player in his proper perspective by comparing him to really bad players at the same position. Or are you suggesting that the only replacements for Vinatieri are Doug Brien or Billy Cundiff?

If you're referring to "clutch kicking", take a look at this piece from NFL.com, breaking down the most "clutch kickers" in the NFL from 1999-2001. Look at some of those names: Martin Gramatica, Jason Hanson, Steve Christie and John Carney topped the list:

http://www.nfl.com/features/2001/kickingcharts.html

By 2003, Gramatica and Christie were barely still in the league. Carney and Hanson are still solid kickers with similar stats to AV, who just happened to play for lousy teams so they haven't had as big of a stage as Vinatieri.

AV is a very good kicker who has been successful on a big stage over the past few years. But to suggest that he's that much better than everyone else because of "clutch kicks" seems to overstate his value a TON.

All the Adam V. love comes from the standpoint that there's never been a more clutch playoff kicker in NFL history. I'd counter that no other kicker in NFL history has had the opportunity to BE clutch like AV. He's done his job in some tough spots, for sure. But does anyone remember Super Bowl 38? How "clutch" was AV missing the chip shot and having one blocked in the first half of that game?

Look, I'm going to miss Vinatieri. We all will. But the kind of "see no evil" hero worship that goes on for the guy in New England sometimes baffles me -- It's the same kind of stuff we Red Sox fans ridicule Yankees fans who think that Derek Jeter is the best shortstop ever due to "clutch" performanes that they selectively remember, carefully omitting times when he's come up short.

 

[JoeSixPat]

I think you're 100% wrong on this.

The difference between AV and the average kicker in NFL history is a hell of a lot closer than Tom Brady and the average QB or Lombardi and the average coach.

Let's think of it in terms of relative value at the position. Having a Pro Bowl kicker isn't nearly as valuable as having a pro bowler at almost every other position on the field, except for punter. I think it's pretty safe to say that if the Patriots improve at WR, LB and DB, they can still win with a league-average kicker.

Oh Yeah? Well I think YOU'RE 100% wrong!

As good as the Patriots are and have been their SB victories have often come down to a clutch kick at a crucial time.

You can't just nonchalantly factor those into an overall percentage of kicks made over a career!

Those weren't "just FG attempts". They were crucial kicks that had the hopes of all the players, all the coaches, all the fans in a region, counting on him.

Adam didn't choke - he made those kicks in the toughest of conditions. If he doesn't come through the New England Patriots are just another team that choked at crunch time.

Do you want to compare Vanderjagt's percentage to Adam's? Go ahead.

That's a perfect apples to apples comparison of two pro bowl kickers.

Do the Patriots have all their SB rings with Vanderjagt on the team? It doesn't seem likely does it.

That's an intangible that your statistics just won't show you.

Common sense needs to come into play.

But I still agree, there is no need to panic. It might take some time to find the right long term kicker solution, but its really a matter of trying out lots of guys to see who's got what it takes.

 

[Mooch]

Oh Yeah? Well I think YOU'RE 100% wrong!

As good as the Patriots are and have been their SB victories have often come down to a clutch kick at a crucial time.

You can't just nonchalantly factor those into an overall percentage of kicks made over a career!

Those weren't "just FG attempts". They were crucial kicks that had the hopes of all the players, all the coaches, all the fans in a region, counting on him.

Adam didn't choke - he made those kicks in the toughest of conditions. If he doesn't come through the New England Patriots are just another team that choked at crunch time.

Do you want to compare Vanderjagt's percentage to Adam's? Go ahead.

That's a perfect apples to apples comparison of two pro bowl kickers.

Do the Patriots have all their SB rings with Vanderjagt on the team? It doesn't seem likely does it.

That's an intangible that your statistics just won't show you.

Common sense needs to come into play.

But I still agree, there is no need to panic. It might take some time to find the right long term kicker solution, but its really a matter of trying out lots of guys to see who's got what it takes.

Once again "intangible" is the word of the day. Just like Jeter fans cite his "intangibles" when saying he's the best shortstop ever. Once again, all I see is people saying "two Super Bowl winning kicks". Well, you're right. He hit them, and deserves due credit for them. But in the end, you're talking about a kicker going 2 for 2. To say that he's the ONLY kicker who could do that is just as silly as saying that EVERY kicker could do that. I'd bet that the truth is somewhere in between. And so would BB and Pioli.

 

[flutie2phelan]

Once again "intangible" is the word of the day. Just like Jeter fans cite his "intangibles" when saying he's the best shortstop ever. Once again, all I see is people saying "two Super Bowl winning kicks". Well, you're right. He hit them, and deserves due credit for them. But in the end, you're talking about a kicker going 2 for 2. To say that he's the ONLY kicker who could do that is just as silly as saying that EVERY kicker could do that. I'd bet that the truth is somewhere in between. And so would BB and Pioli.

Perhaps this is reasonable definition of "clutch":
The franchise’s all-time leading scorer, he converted 19 game-winning kicks during his Patriots career, including four in the postseason and 18 in the final minute or overtime. He only missed one such attempt, against Kansas City in 1999.
edited extract - http://patriots.bostonherald.com/patriots/view.bg?articleid=131584

Incidentally, i'm one of those who don't much mind ... the back, the money, the age.

 

[JoeSixPat]

Once again "intangible" is the word of the day. Just like Jeter fans cite his "intangibles" when saying he's the best shortstop ever. Once again, all I see is people saying "two Super Bowl winning kicks". Well, you're right. He hit them, and deserves due credit for them. But in the end, you're talking about a kicker going 2 for 2. To say that he's the ONLY kicker who could do that is just as silly as saying that EVERY kicker could do that. I'd bet that the truth is somewhere in between. And so would BB and Pioli.

Maybe intangible is the wrong word. Super Bowl rings are VERY tangible!

Does your statistical view of sports give extra weight to his 20 game winning kicks?

Does it give extra weight to the games that won or tied playoff games?

Does it give extra weight to the SB winning kicks?

No? Of course it doesn't. Which perectly illustrates the fallacy of using statistics to prove your point.

(Besides, you can use statistics to prove anything you want. 95% of all people know that! )

 

[mgteich]

Better players also means kicking less often in crucial situations.

 

[Mooch]

Maybe intangible is the wrong word. Super Bowl rings are VERY tangible!

Does your statistical view of sports give extra weight to his 20 game winning kicks?

Does it give extra weight to the games that won or tied playoff games?

Does it give extra weight to the SB winning kicks?

No? Of course it doesn't. Which perectly illustrates the fallacy of using statistics to prove your point.

(Besides, you can use statistics to prove anything you want. 95% of all people know that! )

Again, he's been very good in the clutch. I'm not saying that he hasn't been money. However, "clutch" kicking is the result of a combination of opportunity and talent. Jason Hanson from the Lions has made 12 game-winning fourth quarter or overtime kicks during his career (six in regulation; six in OT) and from what I can find online, has NEVER missed one. He has a lot of talent, but limited opportunity. Jason Elam is just as accurate and just as clutch as AV... And makes a lot less dough.

And more to the original point: If you upgraded at other positions instead of overpaying for a kicker, you might not need your kicker to make as many "clutch" kicks in the first place.

It's not a "fallacy". You just don't agree with it. That's fine.

 

[SoonerPatriot]

I think you're 100% wrong on this.

The difference between AV and the average kicker in NFL history is a hell of a lot closer than Tom Brady and the average QB or Lombardi and the average coach.

Let's think of it in terms of relative value at the position. Having a Pro Bowl kicker isn't nearly as valuable as having a pro bowler at almost every other position on the field, except for punter. I think it's pretty safe to say that if the Patriots improve at WR, LB and DB, they can still win with a league-average kicker.

I bet you weren't saying that when he lined up to make the snow bowl kicks and the SB kicks.

Look, I know it's vogue to minimize the guy this week because he bolted. Frankly, I think it was the right move for both parties. But I think it's kind of chicken sh!t to sit back and pull out all of these stats, none of which count for a hill of beans in reality, in order to denegrate the guy's contributions to the team. He's not the face of the team. He's not the most important part of the team. But he was, in fact, an important part of this team for years.

I hate his new address and I wish him the worst when he plays us. But there are a lot of people who have suddenly come down with alzheimers this week.

 

[Mooch]

Who's denigrating Vinatieri here?

Did I ever say anything bad about him other than (a) replacing him with a guy who's only say 75% as good for 50% of the money is a GOOD thing if you upgrade at other positions or (b) AV just might not be the only "clutch kicker" on the market or in the league.

Anything else is just wasted anger onto me for disagreeing with you (such as "chicken sh!t" and alzheimers, for example).

Sometimes you NEED to take a cold analytic approach to things. Put it another way: I'd bet you that the braintrust that has enabled our team to win 3 Super Bowls agrees a hell of a lot more with MY analysis than yours.

 

[SoonerPatriot]

Who's denigrating Vinatieri here?

Did I ever say anything bad about him other than (a) replacing him with a guy who's only say 75% as good for 50% of the money is a GOOD thing if you upgrade at other positions or (b) AV just might not be the only "clutch kicker" on the market or in the league.

Anything else is just wasted anger onto me for disagreeing with you (such as "chicken sh!t" and alzheimers, for example).

Sometimes you NEED to take a cold analytic approach to things. Put it another way: I'd bet you that the braintrust that has enabled our team to win 3 Super Bowls agrees a hell of a lot more with MY analysis than yours.

Actually, I think the parting of ways was mutual. Adam has said repeteadly he wanted to finish his career in a warm climate or a dome. I think he knows it's getting close to the end and he views playing in a dome as a way to extend his career. Since the Pats have no plans to build a dome, I'm not sure where your "expert" analysis comes in.

And yeah, I think it's chickensh!t to pull out a bunch of stats now when if someone did it a year ago you would have been putting up a fierce argument on how that person was wrong and how Adam was a great kicker yada yada yada.

Saying he is just another kicker is patently wrong. Jose Cortez is just another kicker. Paul Edinger is just another kicker.

Again were you saying he was just another kicker a year ago, or two? Funny how things change.

 

[stcjones]

great point.....

Great analysis: this is a good slightly-new way to explain the Pats MO.

I do worry when Keyshawn jokes about playing for $5 in New England. I'll never cease to be amazed how greedy pro athletes are. If AV took the Patriots' offer, say 2.2 million a year with a $2m signing bonus, he could buy a very nice car, build an indoor swimming pool addition on his house, and still afford to eat lunch at Legal Seafood 3 times a week. Are these guys all trying to buy car dealerships or something?

good post....HOW much money is ENOUGH for these guys? He could have retired here a hero.......now that is all over.....