Know what the difference between a career 81% FG kicker (Adam V.) and a career 75% FG kicker (Paul Edinger) is over the past 6 years?
If you pro-rate Edinger's 75% rate against AV's 188 attempts over 6 seasons, you can assume that Edinger makes 141 Field Goals in that time span. AV made 156 in that same time period. A difference of 15 field goals over 6 years gives you an average of 2.5 FGs per season -- A total of 7.5 points per year. That's little more than one TD.
Now suppose the "downgrade" from AV to Paul Edinger saves you somewhere in the neighborhood of $1.5 million per season -- Which enables you to get a player like say, Eric Moulds instead of David Givens.
Over Givens 4 seasons with the Pats, he scored 12 TDs, or 72 points. Moulds? 20 TDs (120 points) in that same time frame. That's a 48 point upgrade, or a whopping 12 points per season.
Now understand that this "math" is heavily dependant on a lot of things -- WR opportunities in the end zone, offense playcalling/scheme etc... HOWEVER, the point is pretty clear:
A $1.5 million upgrade/downgrade in your kicker is usually less important than a $1.5 million swing in your starting WR. IF the Patriots can add a talent like Moulds for $1.5 million per year over what they would have paid Givens, and Edinger for $1.5 mil less than Vinatieri recieved then it's probably a net gain when it's all said and done.
Word to the wise: DON'T PANIC. Yet.
If you pro-rate Edinger's 75% rate against AV's 188 attempts over 6 seasons, you can assume that Edinger makes 141 Field Goals in that time span. AV made 156 in that same time period. A difference of 15 field goals over 6 years gives you an average of 2.5 FGs per season -- A total of 7.5 points per year. That's little more than one TD.
Now suppose the "downgrade" from AV to Paul Edinger saves you somewhere in the neighborhood of $1.5 million per season -- Which enables you to get a player like say, Eric Moulds instead of David Givens.
Over Givens 4 seasons with the Pats, he scored 12 TDs, or 72 points. Moulds? 20 TDs (120 points) in that same time frame. That's a 48 point upgrade, or a whopping 12 points per season.
Now understand that this "math" is heavily dependant on a lot of things -- WR opportunities in the end zone, offense playcalling/scheme etc... HOWEVER, the point is pretty clear:
A $1.5 million upgrade/downgrade in your kicker is usually less important than a $1.5 million swing in your starting WR. IF the Patriots can add a talent like Moulds for $1.5 million per year over what they would have paid Givens, and Edinger for $1.5 mil less than Vinatieri recieved then it's probably a net gain when it's all said and done.
Word to the wise: DON'T PANIC. Yet.
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