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Patriots decline was years in the making


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Actually the seeds of decline had already begun with the 2004 NFL Draft. Aside from Wilfork, Watson, and trading a 2nd round draft pick for Corey Dillon, the 2004 NFL Draft for the New England Patriots was chock full of busts.

National Football League: NFL Draft History Full Draft - by Team

Not only the best player was not selected at the position (for instance Cedric Cobbs versus Michael Turner) but the teams needs were not prioritized (Marquise Hill in the second versus right tackle):

2nd Round Marquise Hill versus Max Starks

The New England Patriots entered the 2004 NFL Season with three stiffs at right tackle: Klemm, Ashworth, and Gorin. It was a miracle the Patriots won the Super Bowl with Gorin after Ashworth went down. The greater need for the was right tackle not an eighth defensive lineman in camp.

4th Round Cedric Cobbs versus Michael "the burner" Turner

Michael Turner was rated much higher than Cedric Cobbs who was a monumental bust.

Draft Countdown - 2004 NFL Draft Rankings

NFL Draft Scout Rankings, From Prep to Pro Coverage for Pros by Pros - Powered by the Sports Xchange

5th Round PK Sam versus Nick Leckey

The Patriots already carried five wide receivers on the roster during the 2004 NFL Season. A sixth wide receiver was not necessitated. Meanwhile, the Patriots needed a backup center with the departure of Damien Woody.

Draft Countdown - 2004 NFL Draft Rankings

NFL Draft Scout Rankings, From Prep to Pro Coverage for Pros by Pros - Powered by the Sports Xchange

7th Round Christian Morton versus Jabari Greer

Christian Morton was not even invited to the NFL Combines. That should speak for itself!

I completely agree. The decline of the Dynasty That Never Was began with the drafting of Ben Watson, their 2nd 1st-round TE in 3 years, instead of Karlos Dansby. If Bill wanted Watson that badly, then he could've traded his 2nd- & 3rd-rounders to move up sufficiently to take Watson in the 2nd round, similar to the Chad Jackson trade 2 years later.

Except for a decent recovery in 2005, the rest of the drafts have been piss-poor, to be generous. At least 2009 - with Chung (though a half-round over-drafted), Butler, Vollmer, Ingram & Edelman - is more encouraging.
 
When your argument is that "aside from getting a top notch running back, the best nose tackle in football and a quality tight end, the draft had some busts and some guys who's careers were ruined due to injury" and you're pointing to a running back (already dealt with via the Dillon trade) and a 5th and 7th round pick, your argument is weak.
Huh? Since when did Dexter Reid or Cedric Cobbs career's end in injury. Both were released the very next season. PK Sam never got with the program. Marquise Hill was an unnecessary pick since the Patriots already had seven defensive lineman on the roster prior to his selection. You just can't release your draft picks after one season and prolong excellence over an extended period of time. Also I never did complain whatsoever about the Guss Scott pick at that time. Now Cedric Cobbs versus Michael Turner was a whole different manner.
 
Huh? Since when did Dexter Reid or Cedric Cobbs career's end in injury. Both were released the very next season. PK Sam never got with the program. Marquise Hill was an unnecessary pick since the Patriots already had seven defensive lineman on the roster prior to his selection. You just can't release your draft picks after one season and prolong excellence over an extended period of time. Also I never did complain whatsoever about the Guss Scott pick at that time. Now Cedric Cobbs versus Michael Turner was a whole different manner.

I didn't say that Cobbs had a career end due to injury, I noted that the deal for Dillon made his failure as a 4th round pick a moot point. However, both safeties did have knee injuries that hampered, or killed, their careers. As for Hill, call me when teams don't look for more than just starters at positions in the NFL. Your argument's just a bad one, that's all. You people have got to stop looking at rounds 5-7 as if a miss there is some epic failure, because it's not.

Furthermore, the 2005 draft more than made up for any failings you can claim in the 2004 draft, so it's a non-starter anyway.
 
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I didn't say that Cobbs had a career end due to injury, I noted that the deal for Dillon made his failure as a 4th round pick a moot point.
It's not a moot point. You have to look not only towards the present but the future as well. Also, you can never have enough depth in the NFL.

As for Hill, call me when teams don't look for more than just starters at positions in the NFL.
The New England Patriots prior to traning camp already had Traylor, Seymour, Bailey, Green, Warren, Kelley, Wilfork on the defensive line. There were other areas on the Patriots roster that needed far greater upgrades than the defensive line.

Your argument's just a bad one, that's all. You people have got to stop looking at rounds 5-7 as if a miss there is some epic failure, because it's not.
Aside from Corey Dillon, rounds two thru five were epic failures.

Furthermore, the 2005 draft more than made up for any failings you can claim in the 2004 draft, so it's a non-starter anyway.
Yeah the third round trade for Duane Starks made up for the selection of Christian Morton in the seventh round of the 2004 NFL Draft. In essence, the New England Patriots missed out the future replacement of Corey Dillon with either a fourth round pick in 2004 (Michael Turner) or a third round pick in 2005 (Marion Barber). By postponing the future replacement of Corey Dillon, the New England Patriots pushed the panic button and selected Maroney in the first round of the 2006 NFL Draft when inside linebacker became an extremely pressing need in 2006. It's an avalanche, keep missing on one position (running back) then the other positions (inside linebacker) on the roster start to suffer as well.
 
It's not a moot point. You have to look not only towards the present but the future as well. Also, you can never have enough depth in the NFL.

The New England Patriots prior to traning camp already had Traylor, Seymour, Bailey, Green, Warren, Kelley, Wilfork on the defensive line. There were other areas on the Patriots roster that needed far greater upgrades than the defensive line.

Aside from Corey Dillon, rounds two thru five were epic failures.

Yeah the third round trade for Duane Starks made up for the selection of Christian Morton in the seventh round of the 2004 NFL Draft. In essence, the New England Patriots missed out the future replacement of Corey Dillon with either a fourth round pick in 2004 (Michael Turner) or a third round pick in 2005 (Marion Barber). By postponing the future replacement of Corey Dillon, the New England Patriots pushed the panic button and selected Maroney in the first round of the 2006 NFL Draft when inside linebacker became an extremely pressing need in 2006. It's an avalanche, keep missing on one position (running back) then the other positions (inside linebacker) on the roster start to suffer as well.

I have to tell you, this kind of exercise of retrospective, selective drafting seems to me to have no merit whatsoever. I suspect Belichick himself would do an improved job of drafting with a time machine at his disposal like you do.
 
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1) Anyone who thinks that the 2007 season was part of long spiral downward is an idiot. We we were one crazy play away from being one the consensus top three or four teams of all time.

2) Anyone who whines and moans about being 11-5 without Brady in 2008 is a moron and/or a mediot.

and finally,

3) Anyone who considers a division winning season an aweful result of a long decline in the making shouldn't be paid for writing sports columns or should be a beat writer for a paper in Detroit instead of New England.

just my 2 vents and 2 cents

I agree with 2 and 3

1 is open for debate.
 
I have to tell you, this kind of exercise of retrospective, selective drafting seems to me to have no merit whatsoever. I suspect Belichick himself would do an improved job of drafting with a time machine at his disposal like you do.

I think the bottom line is even though Belichick does not have the capabilities of knowing a player he has chosen will be good or not because you can't see the future.the point is that he certainly has failed in the evaluation of many draft picks to the point where they truly suck as an NFL player and he just happened to fail to find good talent the past couple of years..
this is of course not for ALL the picks because a few guys turned out decent, but since 2006 you could say a good chunk of duds...one too many have arrived and left Gillette stadium...A good reason why the team is in decline right now.

Look at the Colts...While they are not winning a bunch of SBs, they just seem to hit on a lot of draft picks year in and year out and as the decade ends the team is still winning 12 or more games a year...good drafts will keep you going right and Polian is making good decisions and evaluations.
 
I think the bottom line is even though Belichick does not have the capabilities of knowing a player he has chosen will be good or not because you can't see the future.the point is that he certainly has failed in the evaluation of many draft picks to the point where they truly suck as an NFL player and he just happened to fail to find good talent the past couple of years..
this is of course not for ALL the picks because a few guys turned out decent, but since 2006 you could say a good chunk of duds...one too many have arrived and left Gillette stadium...A good reason why the team is in decline right now.

Look at the Colts...While they are not winning a bunch of SBs, they just seem to hit on a lot of draft picks year in and year out and as the decade ends the team is still winning 12 or more games a year...good drafts will keep you going right and Polian is making good decisions and evaluations.

I'm not trying to defend Belichick's draft record; I actually don't know of a good methodology to do so, though surely one could be constructed. It's the popular practice of using hindsight to single out an unsuccessful pick and replace him with a player now known to be successful that I decry. Almost every pick by every team in 2000 could be criticized because Tom Brady was an available alternative. Almost as bad is picking players who were highly rated by (say) Kiper that were passed over for another player that didn't work out. Every team has bad picks in every draft, and most every team has unpopular picks that turn out to be bad. Retrospective cherry picking of improvements to a teams draft is a pointless exercise unless it can be demonstrated the team made a bad choice based on the evidence it should have had at the time it was actually picking. It's reasonable to show that (say) Gosselin at the time claimed that the Patriots made a controversial pick that later didn't work out, as Gosselin actually builds his draft board by polling teams. Saying that (say) Kiper had someone highly rated that the Patriots passed over who later worked out is much less compelling. Kiper is sometimes right for the wrong reasons, and teams are sometimes wrong for the right reasons. The bane of every such assessment methodology is identifying and eliminating false positives and false negatives.
 
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I have always wondered if BB takes joy in selecting unconventional surprise picks just for the sake of demonstrating his "genius".
Year after year he picks surprise picks at positions that are not maximum need.


If BB had been consistently more
conventional in his picks then the Patriots dynasty would still be continuing
 
Perhaps Belichick should have been more conventional and traded up for one of teh OT's picked in the 2-8 range and have given up the picks used for Butler, Vollmer, Tate and Edelman. Or perhaps did fine.

I have always wondered if BB takes joy in selecting unconventional surprise picks just for the sake of demonstrating his "genius".
Year after year he picks surprise picks at positions that are not maximum need.


If BB had been consistently more
conventional in his picks then the Patriots dynasty would still be continuing
 
And my point was that the team was, in fact, able to maintain OR replace those pieces. The problem was that the replacement pieces failed for various reasons (Colvin was injured and was never the impact player they needed him to be, Thomas was injured in his first 2 seasons and was an issue this year, etc...). Moss, after all, was a replacement piece, as was Welker, and they weren't just replacements, but were upgrades. They didn't 'replace' Samuel, but they paid him the franchise value for a season.

You cant point to a few people and say they were the replacements for all of the players that left. Colvin was on the team in 03, so he isnt a replacement from the 03-04 rosters, by the way.
I am saying the 53 man roster could not be replaced. Its simply a fact. That if you get 150mill of talent under a 75mill cap, your talent will erode as those contracts expire. To name 2 or 3 players at 2 positions doesnt come close to repsonding to the issue I am talking about. You said yourself Samuel wasn't replaced. Law was never replaced by equal ability, nor even was Tyrone Poole, at the level he played at that time. Ted Johnson, Roman Phifer, Ted Washington, Givens, Branch, Graham and on and on and on.
Naming some replacements doesnt address that it was impossible to replace ALL with like talent. In fact, my overall point was the a tremendous job was done replacing SOME to improve areas to compensate for the overall degredation.
 
What does this mean? Are you implying he was invited? Because his combine stats are empty...

Also, a subscription to NFL Draft Scout does not an expert make. It is sad that I feel the need to state this outright.
With regard to Vollmer, look at his draft rating - late 3rd round, early fourth round. Vollmer was not an unknown commodity in the 2009 NFL Draft.

Christian Morton was rated at best a late sixth round, early seventh round draft pick AND was not invited to the NFL combine. Jabari Greer was rated a late fourth round, early fifth round draft pick AND was invited to the NFL combine. Not only Jabari Greer was rated a higher cornerback but he was available for inteviews during the NFL combines.

As for your NFL Draft Scout comment, if you wish to be uninformed that is your prerogative.
 
You cant point to a few people and say they were the replacements for all of the players that left. Colvin was on the team in 03, so he isnt a replacement from the 03-04 rosters, by the way.
I am saying the 53 man roster could not be replaced. Its simply a fact. That if you get 150mill of talent under a 75mill cap, your talent will erode as those contracts expire. To name 2 or 3 players at 2 positions doesnt come close to repsonding to the issue I am talking about. You said yourself Samuel wasn't replaced. Law was never replaced by equal ability, nor even was Tyrone Poole, at the level he played at that time. Ted Johnson, Roman Phifer, Ted Washington, Givens, Branch, Graham and on and on and on.
Naming some replacements doesnt address that it was impossible to replace ALL with like talent. In fact, my overall point was the a tremendous job was done replacing SOME to improve areas to compensate for the overall degredation.

Colvin, however, was replacing an earlier departee, which is how you keep the team from declining. The Colvin problem arose because one of the very things you're saying they couldn't do was, in fact, done, but had a disappointing result due to injury.

From where I'm reading, you've confused a determination not to pay certain people money with the inability to do so. The team could certainly have paid Branch, just as an example, but it refused to move on the last year of Branch's rookie contract. Givens was paid far more than he reasonably should have. You let those players walk regardless of any salary cap. We see that in sports like baseball, all the time. You're also focused mainly on players that I noted: Seymour, Law and Law, all of whom were given large number contracts while still with the Patriots and all of whom played at least a season with the team at those high numbers.

Johnson and Pfifer weren't cap casualties. Johnson retired due to concussion issues, but he was already in camp. Seau certainly was an adequate replacement brought in the next season. Phifer was no longer the player he had been. He was 36 in 2004. Replacements were brought in. They were simply less successful.

I understand what you're saying, but you've combined two separate assertions. One regards talent replacement and the other regards salary cap issues. I'm in complete agreement with the idea that great players were not replaced with great players over the course of time. I'm simply pointing out that the facts don't support the argument that this was due to the salary cap, at least in most cases.
 
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I have to tell you, this kind of exercise of retrospective, selective drafting seems to me to have no merit whatsoever. I suspect Belichick himself would do an improved job of drafting with a time machine at his disposal like you do.
Please rate the New England Patriots draft for 2006 and 2008.
 
this is of course not for ALL the picks because a few guys turned out decent, but since 2006 you could say a good chunk of duds...one too many have arrived and left Gillette stadium...A good reason why the team is in decline right now.
Obviously you see the big picture however the New England Patriots draft in 2004 from the second round on down, with the exception of Corey Dillon, was abysmal. It seems the even years 2004, 2006, 2008 have produced subpar results.
 
3) Anyone who considers a division winning season an aweful result of a long decline in the making shouldn't be paid for writing sports columns or should be a beat writer for a paper in Detroit instead of New England.

just my 2 vents and 2 cents
The manner in which the New England Patriots played against the Baltimore Ravens in the 2009 AFC Playoffs should question the decline of the New England Patriots.
 
Colvin, however, was replacing an earlier departee, which is how you keep the team from declining. The Colvin problem arose because one of the very things you're saying they couldn't do was, in fact, done, but had a disappointing result due to injury.

From where I'm reading, you've confused a determination not to pay certain people money with the inability to do so. The team could certainly have paid Branch, just as an example, but it refused to move on the last year of Branch's rookie contract. Givens was paid far more than he reasonably should have. You let those players walk regardless of any salary cap. We see that in sports like baseball, all the time. You're also focused mainly on players that I noted: Seymour, Law and Law, all of whom were given large number contracts while still with the Patriots and all of whom played at least a season with the team at those high numbers.

Johnson and Pfifer weren't cap casualties. Johnson retired due to concussion issues, but he was already in camp. Seau certainly was an adequate replacement brought in the next season. Phifer was no longer the player he had been. He was 36 in 2004. Replacements were brought in. They were simply less successful.

I understand what you're saying, but you've combined two separate assertions. One regards talent replacement and the other regards salary cap issues. I'm in complete agreement with the idea that great players were not replaced with great players over the course of time. I'm simply pointing out that the facts don't support the argument that this was due to the salary cap, at least in most cases.

Stop the strawman.

Nowhere in anything I have said am I talking about whether they could, would, wanted to or didn't want to replace individual players.
I am saying they could not afford to either:
A) Keep EVERY player or
B) Replace them with an equal player for the same cap cost

Players contracts expired throughout the the subsequent 5 years.
They kept some. They replaced every single one. They maintianed 53 man rosters.
But it was impossible to retain them or replace them with SIMILAR talent, because what it would cost to replace them that way would have enormously exceeded the cap.
We haven't been as good at corner since Law left. One of the consequences of what I am describing is that we could not spend as much on a replacement as we were spending on Law. Not if we intended to give raises to any players, or to replace the ones that leave with equal ones. Its not about the decisions that were made. A player who left due to age rather than money means no difference.

Once again:
The total level of talent on the 03-04 Patriots was by far the best in the NFL.
As soon as those contracts started expiring, there were 3 choices:
1) Give the player a raise
2) Let the player go and replace them with an equal talent costing substantially more
3) Let the player go and replace him with a player costing about what he did, which would be a big dropoff in talent

You can look at individual instances where we did 1 or 2 but every time we did that it meant we had to do 3, or even the 4th option which is fill out the back of the roster with more rookies, minimum salary free agents, etc, because there wasnt cap space left.

You want to strawman this into saying players were replaced. That is ignorant. Of course they were replaced, we maintained 53 players on the roster. But the overall talent level was destined to decline.

Here is an analogy.
The Yankees payroll is far above everyone elses. If we stipulate agree for the sake of argument that players are paid about their value, if you introduced a salary cap into baseball and made every player a fre agent, the decrease in overall talent on the roster of the Yankees would be the greatest in the league.
That is exactly what happened to the Patriots, but it happened over time as the contracts expired one by one. "Bargain" contracts were signed as the dynasty was built and players outplayed their contracts. Its foolish to think the talent level could be maintained under a salary cap.
 
Colvin, however, was replacing an earlier departee, which is how you keep the team from declining. The Colvin problem arose because one of the very things you're saying they couldn't do was, in fact, done, but had a disappointing result due to injury.

From where I'm reading, you've confused a determination not to pay certain people money with the inability to do so. The team could certainly have paid Branch, just as an example, but it refused to move on the last year of Branch's rookie contract. Givens was paid far more than he reasonably should have. You let those players walk regardless of any salary cap. We see that in sports like baseball, all the time. You're also focused mainly on players that I noted: Seymour, Law and Law, all of whom were given large number contracts while still with the Patriots and all of whom played at least a season with the team at those high numbers.

Johnson and Pfifer weren't cap casualties. Johnson retired due to concussion issues, but he was already in camp. Seau certainly was an adequate replacement brought in the next season. Phifer was no longer the player he had been. He was 36 in 2004. Replacements were brought in. They were simply less successful.

I understand what you're saying, but you've combined two separate assertions. One regards talent replacement and the other regards salary cap issues. I'm in complete agreement with the idea that great players were not replaced with great players over the course of time. I'm simply pointing out that the facts don't support the argument that this was due to the salary cap, at least in most cases.

Regarding your last paragraph, of course it was due to the cap, because the cap is the constraint. When Deion Branch, making 500k and playing at a 5mill level leaves, there isnt 5mill available to get another player to play at that level. Instead you get Reche Caldwell. Do you think they chose Reche Caldwell over a WR they could have paid 5 mill for, for any reason other than they couldn't afford it (along with the other 52 players) under the cap?
You cite players they signed, but those players represented increased expenditure to replace similar players. What does that mean? It means you must cut elsewhere.
My overall point was that given the absolute inability to maintain the overall talent level under a cap, the Patriots actually did an excellent job of prioritizing where to spend more and where to cheap, unless you consider the last 5 years in and of themselves an utter failure. I don't.
 
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