Patriots decline was years in the making

[Ring 6]

You posted quite a bit that should be looked at by people, but I wanted to focus on the above portion, because it's really the key, in my mind.

Some of the problem was cap, but I certainly don't think it was all, or even much, of it. Most of the players were kept on through their prime, after all. The only major losses have been Law, Samuel and Seymour (That's assuming his trade was about money). I'd put Washington there as well, but that wasn't as much a case of the Patriots not having the money as it was of the Patriots screwing around and trying to low ball a player.

Bruschi - stayed
Johnson - retired
McGinest - was shot when he left
Vrabel - was shipped out past his prime
Cox, Pfifer, Pleasant, Hamilton, Smith, Compton - Contributors, but older and not expected to last

I think it's mostly been a tale of two problems, one with a subset: Lesser quality players via the draft, and poor free agency due to both big misses and bad luck.

Free Agency:

In the beginning, it was the notion of signing 50 guys to find 3. As time went on, and more teams became adept at locking up the players who had some value, this approach became less and less successful, which led to the need to sign higher priced players like Colvin and Thomas. The problems there are epitomized by those two players. Colvin was hurt just about as he was unpacking his clothes, and Thomas was both injured and, apparently, a poor match for the team.

Taking a good look at the Free agent signings from 2005, 2008 and 2009 really says a lot about why the team has declined, I think.

Draft: I've talked about this before, but just to recap:

2000-2005

Pro Bowl/All Pro talent:

Seymour
Brady
Wilfork
Light
Samuel
Koppen
Mankins

Plus "a step down"/complimentary guys like Branch, Warren Wilson, Watson, Hobbs, Kaczur, Cassel, Sanders and Graham.

2006-2009

Pro Bowl/All Pro talent:

Meriweather (as an alternate)

Yes, Mayo showed promise last year, and there are some "a step down"/complimentary guys on could put on the list, but it's nothing like it was prior to 2006.

I dont think the point was necessarily whether they were washed up when they left.
I'm comparing what we had in say 03-04 and the value of that roster compared to what it would cost, starting from scratch. Its not just marquee players either. From those teams we lost players such as Branch and Givens, Graham, Andruzzi, a slew of starter/backup OL that filled in effectively in SB seasons, along with 13 players you listed above, and others that were lesser pieces.

My point is not about the CHOICE to keep them or not. Its about the potential to mainitain OR replace those pieces.
For example, if we had Mike Smith playing for 1.5 mill a year, but playing at a pro-bowl level, as a microcosm of the entire roster (ie we have many players out playing their cost) the issue I am addressing is not whether or not to resign them or let them go, or whether their play will continue, but for the overall quality of the TEAM to continue.
If many players on your team are playing under a contract that is much less than what they would receive on the open market you simply cannot maintain the quality of your roster. If you retain them you must pay them more, and cut elsewhere, if you let them go, you have a salary slot to replace them with that will not bring the same quality.
Thats the point I am trying to make with hypothetical numbers.
If the 03-04 Pats had a team that was fitting under a 75mill cap, but the cumulative value of those players on the open market was 150 mill you will not be able to keep them all, and when you don't you will not have sufficient money to replace them with equal quality.

Basically, the overall cap cost of the entire NFL is equal to what those players would earn on the open market. Some teams have more value than cost, others have more cost than value. The first will decline almost by definition as those contract expire, the second will improve (ie get rid of a bad player making 6mill and replace him with a good one, or more).

I would submit that the 03-04 Pats had more excess in this area, that is, the open market value of its roster exceeded it cap charges by more than any team in the cap era.
The team was doomed at that point to having the deck stacked against them in maintaining the quality of its roster.

 

[eagle eye]

Concord Monitor - Decline was years in the making

If I had to write an article of why the Patriots domination is starting to have big chinks in the armor,this article would pretty much sum it all up..very well written although its something we are not happy to agree with.

I've criticised articles in the past for having facts wrong and being unfairly biased towards or against the Patriots.

This article doesn't seem to have any of that, it just seems to have been written by somebody with very little clue about the game in general. In fact its what I'd expect to see a 10 year old child with little or no clue about the game to write for a debate on the subject. Its extremely poor.

As said by others, we are still an elite team in the NFL, the mediots were hoping we missed out on the playoffs so they could call this the end of an era. This organization is so good that rebuilding is done while maintaining a very high level of football on the field.

As for calling it the end of an era or whatever, if either the head coach or QB was gone but thats not the case, they are the guys that ultimately define the team and both are thankfully still with us.

 

[Deus Irae]

...My point is not about the CHOICE to keep them or not. Its about the potential to mainitain OR replace those pieces...

And my point was that the team was, in fact, able to maintain OR replace those pieces. The problem was that the replacement pieces failed for various reasons (Colvin was injured and was never the impact player they needed him to be, Thomas was injured in his first 2 seasons and was an issue this year, etc...). Moss, after all, was a replacement piece, as was Welker, and they weren't just replacements, but were upgrades. They didn't 'replace' Samuel, but they paid him the franchise value for a season.

 

[Deus Irae]

I don't know if I agree with that. The 2009 team faced one of the tougher schedules of the decade (besides the 2007 team, which, ironically, didn't lose any regular season games). The AFCE has gotten a lot stronger this season. And we won it, last year, we didn't. So by definition, I have to say the 2009 team was better than the 2008 team. By defensive-adjusted #s, this team was one of the best in the league, it just didn't play like one when it counted. But neither did the 2008 team, so its a toss up to me.

The 2009 team played a lot of terrible teams. It lost to the good teams, just as the 2008 team did. The 2008 team was playing better at the end of the year than was the 2009 team. However, my comment was

The 2009 team was, arguably, the worst team

so if you want to argue that 2008 was worse, that's your call. Personally, I would rank the post-2004 teams, from best to worst, as follows:

2007
2006
2008
2005
2009

Earlier in the year, I wouldn't have put the 2009 team down at the bottom, but it never progressed from that point, and it actually seemed to get worse.

 

[BradyManny]

The 2009 team played a lot of terrible teams. It lost to the good teams, just as the 2008 team did. The 2008 team was playing better at the end of the year than was the 2009 team. However, my comment was



so if you want to argue that 2008 was worse, that's your call. Personally, I would rank the post-2004 teams, from best to worst, as follows:

2007
2006
2008
2005
2009

Earlier in the year, I wouldn't have put the 2009 team down at the bottom, but it never progressed from that point, and it actually seemed to get worse.

According to footballoutsiders, Brady faced the toughest schedule of any QB (pass defense wise) in 17 years. I factor that in. I know some of the offenses we faced were weak, but we did play tough defenses.

Though yes, either way, whether its 2008 or 2009, I know it supports the idea that the first half of the decade was stronger.

 

[PATRIOTSFANINPA]

I've criticised articles in the past for having facts wrong and being unfairly biased towards or against the Patriots.

This article doesn't seem to have any of that, it just seems to have been written by somebody with very little clue about the game in general. In fact its what I'd expect to see a 10 year old child with little or no clue about the game to write for a debate on the subject. Its extremely poor.

As said by others, we are still an elite team in the NFL, the mediots were hoping we missed out on the playoffs so they could call this the end of an era. This organization is so good that rebuilding is done while maintaining a very high level of football on the field.

As for calling it the end of an era or whatever, if either the head coach or QB was gone but thats not the case, they are the guys that ultimately define the team and both are thankfully still with us.

This team is NOT an Elite team dude,get off the smack please...go to that roster where Tully Banta Cain is our best pass rusher..Lawrence (can't ever break 100) Maroney is our featured back and the OL gives Brady about 2 seconds to find a receiver not to mention an overated elder Moss who takes vacations in the middle of games and a team who uses a former QB and a STs player as a 3rd receiver.

An Elite team is one that does not have many flaws or holes...you better learn to know the meaning of Elite and put the Homer glasses away in the drawer....Elite?

BTW: If you think maintaining a ELITE level of play is by losing to EVERY team in the playoffs then you really need help..

Statements like yours makes me vomit - This is a GOOD team bordering on mediocre right now,NOTHING more and this is coming from a DIEHARD Pats fan for going on 35 years now...You seem to forget 2004 is over

This team has LOTS and LOTS of work to be done to get to the Elite level,You make it sound like a Genie can come down and snap his arms and the team becomes fantastic again....not so easy anymore.

We need an offseason of transitions this offseason that must make the 2007 offseason look pathetic if you want an Elite team back next season...

 

[mgteich]

If an elite team is a team without holes, then there has never been one since the merger.

Going into the season, there was no question. With the expectation of Brady coming back healthy, we were expected to be an elite team. Brady was much less than healthy, and then wa injured again and again.

You make fun of Maroney, yet the offense was a top 5 offense, and certainly would have been better if one of our #3 WR worked out and stayed healthy or if Brady were healthy.

We went into the season with a DROY looking to improve. He was injured and was never the same.

So, it is a matter of perspective. It depends on who is re-signed and who comes back healthy. HOWEVER, I have no question that the health of Brady and Mayo were major factors in the patriots having ONLY won their 7th division this decade and failing in their playoff game. Until we know that Brady and Mayo are coming back healthy, and that Wilfork, Mankins and Bodden are coming back, I agree that we are NOT an elite team.

This team is NOT an Elite team dude,get off the smack please...go to that roster where Tully Banta Cain is our best pass rusher..Lawrence (can't ever break 100) Maroney is our featured back and the OL gives Brady about 2 seconds to find a receiver not to mention an overated dud in Moss who takes vacations in the middle of games.

An Elite team is one that does not have many flaws or holes...you better learn to know the meaning of Elite and put the Homer glasses away in the drawer....Elite?

BTW: If you think maintaining a ELITE level of play is by losing to EVERY team in the playoffs then you really need help..

Statements like yours makes me vomit - This is a GOOD team bordering on mediocre right now,NOTHING more and this is coming from a DIEHARD Pats fan for going on 35 years now...You seem to forget 2004 is over

This team has LOTS and LOTS of work to be done to get to the Elite level,You make it sound like a Genie can come down and snap his arms and the team becomes fantastic again....not so easy anymore.

 

[PATRIOTSFANINPA]

If an elite team is a team without holes, then there has never been one since the merger.

Going into the season, there was no question. With the expectation of Brady coming back healthy, we were expected to be an elite team. Brady was much less than healthy, and then wa injured again and again.

You make fun of Maroney, yet the offense was a top 5 offense, and certainly would have been better if one of our #3 WR worked out and stayed healthy or if Brady were healthy.

We went into the season with a DROY looking to improve. He was injured and was never the same.

So, it is a matter of perspective. It depends on who is re-signed and who comes back healthy. HOWEVER, I have no question that the health of Brady and Mayo were major factors in the patriots having ONLY won their 7th division this decade and failing in their playoff game. Until we know that Brady and Mayo are coming back healthy, and that Wilfork, Mankins and Bodden are coming back, I agree that we are NOT an elite team.

As far as Mayo is concerned, it seemed on the field he was on full
stride across the field in games I watched a few weeks after he injury,didn't look gimpy or anything- I don't know if he is one of those stuggling freshman guys or what.

No one said an Elite team has NO holes,I said an Elite team does not have many..The Patriots have almost as many holes to fill as some of the bottom dwelling teams heading into the offseason - 5 or 6 game changing type players at least are needed including a RT or maybe both O Tackles,An ILB,OLB,DE,A 2nd and a 3rd depth WR since Welker most likely misses about 3/4 of the season and possibly a kicker as well if Ghost wants more $$$ - thats possibly 8 guys we need to perform well,,,thats quite a bit for a team that just won a division no matter how weak the East was .

 

[emoney_33]

As far as Mayo is concerned, it seemed on the field he was on full
stride across the field in games I watched a few weeks after he injury,didn't look gimpy or anything- I don't know if he is one of those stuggling freshman guys or what.

No one said an Elite team has NO holes,I said an Elite team does not have many..The Patriots have almost as many holes to fill as some of the bottom dwelling teams heading into the offseason - 5 or 6 game changing type players at least are needed.

As many holes as the bottom dwellers? Step back and do an objective analysis please, you are completely wrong. We are about 3-5 solid "contributors" away from being superbowl favorites IMO.

5 or 6 game changing type players would put this team above the 2007 team by a full 2 steps. What the hell are you talking about. Do you understand what a game changing type player is?

So your definition of "Elite" is "Madden All Star team"...

 

[juxtapoz15]

One thing to think about....

When BB, Pioli, etc. planted the seeds of the Patriots dynasty there weren't many teams out there besides Pittsburgh that looked for players that fit the 3-4 defensive scheme. Now that former staff members from the Patriots are spread out across the league we have more competition for the types of players that we need to build a good defense, stout NTs, OLBs that can set the edge in the running game, etc. are now becoming highly sought after instead of just players that didn't fit well in a 4-3.

I don't think that BB can't find "Patriots Players" I think that there are just less of them available due to every other team wanting to be more like the Patriots.

 

[PATRIOTSFANINPA]

As many holes as the bottom dwellers? Step back and do an objective analysis please, you are completely wrong. We are about 3-5 solid "contributors" away from being superbowl favorites IMO.

5 or 6 game changing type players would put this team above the 2007 team by a full 2 steps. What the hell are you talking about. Do you understand what a game changing type player is?

So your definition of "Elite" is "Madden All Star team"...

The Pats are about as an Elite team right now as I am to being president of the US.

The Pats need more than 5 players to make an impact instead of some of the worthless additions we had the past year who could care less about a ring and more about making money.

Just stop with your moronic responses will you?..you are one of the most irrational homers on this board ...everything the Pats do is perfect with you,glad for you..now go away and don't waste time responding with your garbage please.

 

[emoney_33]

The Pats are about as an Elite team right now as I am to being president of the US.

Listen Debbie-Downer you have proven to be an absolute pessimist without the ability to objectively analyze anything. The defense allowed <18 ppg, the offense played against a very difficult pass defense and put up top-5 offensive numbers. The team as a whole led the league in TIME OF POSSESSION. You have no idea what an elite team is because you lack any and all perspective. There was at most 2-3 teams that were "clearly" better than us heading into the last week of the season (before the Welker injury).

The Pats need more than 5 players to make an impact instead of some of the worthless additions we had the past year who could care less about a ring and more about making money.

I agree we need to do better than we did in failing with guys like Lewis and Galloway.

Just stop with your moronic responses will you?..you are one of the most irrational homers on this board,get BBs nanas out of your face for once and stop picking up the soap when Brady is in the room ...everything the Pats do is alright with you,glad for you..now go away to your room in the basement and don't waste time responding with your garbage excuses.

You are a whiny little b**** who holds the team to impossible expectations. The fact of the matter is this team is still elite and unless the team has an uncharacteristically HORRENDOUS offseason, they will be elite next year. Watch more games than just the ESPN highlights and maybe you'll get a better perspective.

 

[PATRIOTSFANINPA]

Listen Debbie-Downer you have proven to be an absolute pessimist without the ability to objectively analyze anything. The defense allowed <18 ppg, the offense played against a very difficult pass defense and put up top-5 offensive numbers. The team as a whole led the league in TIME OF POSSESSION. You have no idea what an elite team is because you lack any and all perspective. There was at most 2-3 teams that were "clearly" better than us heading into the last week of the season (before the Welker injury).



I agree we need to do better than we did in failing with guys like Lewis and Galloway.



You are a whiny little b**** who holds the team to impossible expectations. The fact of the matter is this team is still elite and unless the team has an uncharacteristically HORRENDOUS offseason, they will be elite next year. Watch more games than just the ESPN highlights and maybe you'll get a better perspective.

1st on my ignore list ,Thanks for starting one for me

 

[emoney_33]

Your an Elite idiot..now go away punk - 1st on my ignore list ,Thanks for starting one for me

Just the type of mature, fact-based response I'd expect from you.
You can't accept the facts, so ignore them... as they say "ignorance is bliss"

Good riddance, now please go start another 100 threads about everything terrible with the Patriots.

 

[ATippett56]

Actually the seeds of decline had already begun with the 2004 NFL Draft. Aside from Wilfork, Watson, and trading a 2nd round draft pick for Corey Dillon, the 2004 NFL Draft for the New England Patriots was chock full of busts.

National Football League: NFL Draft History Full Draft - by Team

Not only the best player was not selected at the position (for instance Cedric Cobbs versus Michael Turner) but the teams needs were not prioritized (Marquise Hill in the second versus right tackle):

2nd Round Marquise Hill versus Max Starks

The New England Patriots entered the 2004 NFL Season with three stiffs at right tackle: Klemm, Ashworth, and Gorin. It was a miracle the Patriots won the Super Bowl with Gorin after Ashworth went down. The greater need for the was right tackle not an eighth defensive lineman in camp.

4th Round Cedric Cobbs versus Michael "the burner" Turner

Michael Turner was rated much higher than Cedric Cobbs who was a monumental bust.

Draft Countdown - 2004 NFL Draft Rankings

NFL Draft Scout Rankings, From Prep to Pro Coverage for Pros by Pros - Powered by the Sports Xchange

5th Round PK Sam versus Nick Leckey

The Patriots already carried five wide receivers on the roster during the 2004 NFL Season. A sixth wide receiver was not necessitated. Meanwhile, the Patriots needed a backup center with the departure of Damien Woody.

Draft Countdown - 2004 NFL Draft Rankings

NFL Draft Scout Rankings, From Prep to Pro Coverage for Pros by Pros - Powered by the Sports Xchange

7th Round Christian Morton versus Jabari Greer

Christian Morton was not even invited to the NFL Combines. That should speak for itself!

 

[Pedrorocks458]

7th Round Christian Morton versus Jabari Greer

Christian Morton was not even invited to the NFL Combines. That should speak for itself!

Nice little Monday morning quarterback exercise you have going here. Please continue. Just wanted to say that neither was Sebastian Vollmer.

 

[ATippett56]

Nice little Monday morning quarterback exercise you have going here. Please continue. Just wanted to say that neither was Sebastian Vollmer.

Get a subscription to NFL Draft Scout

Sebastian Vollmer | Houston, OT : 2009 NFL Draft Scout Player Profile

Afterwards, then tell me where Jabari Greer was rated versus Christian Morton in the 2004 NFL Draft.

 

[Patspsycho]

We've declined to winning only 10 games this year. How terrible.

 

[ATippett56]

We've declined to winning only 10 games this year. How terrible.

It's how the New England Patriots played against the Baltimore Ravens in the playoffs that illustrates the decline. First home playoff loss in the Brady/Belichick era that was not even competitive.

 

[Deus Irae]

Get a subscription to NFL Draft Scout

Sebastian Vollmer*|*Houston,*OT*:*2009 NFL Draft Scout Player Profile

Afterwards, then tell me where Jabari Greer was rated versus Christian Morton in the 2004 NFL Draft.

When your argument is that "aside from getting a top notch running back, the best nose tackle in football and a quality tight end, the draft had some busts and some guys who's careers were ruined due to injury" and you're pointing to a running back (already dealt with via the Dillon trade) and a 5th and 7th round pick, your argument is weak.