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OT: Why I think the Jets have permanently ruined Sanchez...

Discussion in 'NFL Football Forum' started by Ice_Ice_Brady, Nov 23, 2009.

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  1. Ice_Ice_Brady

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    Last year two quarterbacks stepped up big in their rookie seasons. Joe Flacco and Matt Ryan each put together exceptional first-years and led their teams to the playoffs. Immediately before this year's draft, virtually every draft analyst believed there were several "NFL ready" quarterbacks ready to follow the lead of Ryan and Flacco, ready to start from day one. The other name that was brought up continuously was Peyton Manning, coming off his 3rd MVP award, the poster boy for putting a quarterback in a "baptism by fire" in which first year struggles result in vast improvements. No one really argued with this line of thinking. Players like Ben Roethlisberger, Manning, and last years wonders, are among the best quarterbacks in the league.

    And teams like the Lions and Jets bit, and bit hard. The Lions announced Stafford as the starter early in training camp, while the Jets "awarded" Sanchez with first-string duties after a "battle" that was about as unbiased as the USSR-USA 1972 Olympic basketball final. Needless to say, Sanchez was the day one starter and looked poised and effective. Already comparisons to Joe Namath and Tom Brady were being made. Sanchez became the first rookie quarterback to begin 3-0 (for rookies that started in all three of his team's games.) Then Sanchez faced the New Orleans Saints defense and his confidence turned. Progressively spiraling downwards, Sanchez now finds himself among the worst statistical quarterbacks in the league, as teams have figured him out, he has lost all confidence, and he looks like he does not belong in the league. Jets fans are concerned, feeling that this is their typical luck. Still, they seem to think that first-year struggles are completely normal for future Hall of Fame quarterbacks.

    Jets fans couldn't be more wrong, and they should be pointing their finger at management, who bought into the "first-year rookie starter" after last year's two anomalies. The truth is that players like Manning, Roethlisberger, Flacco, and Ryan are merely the few survivors of a rookie starter death march that destroys players with great potential. Since 1999, 16 quarterbacks have taken the majority of their team's snaps. Roethlisberger, Ryan, and Flacco are the only three to post quarterback ratings over 80. They are also the only three who aren't considered to be monumental busts. Among the trash heap of former franchise quarterbacks who were ruined because they were brought in to soon, we have such gems as Joey Harrington, Kyle Boller, and David Carr.

    The point that Jets fans fail to grasp is that ALL of these quarterbacks showed great potential at one time. All of them had the physical tools to succeed at the NFL; all of them expected to jump up to an elite level by their third year; and all of them basically stayed at their rookie production. Peyton Manning was not a model to base the way you develop a QB; he was an exception to the rule that quarterbacks that struggle as rookies will fail quickly in their careers.


    QBs who played the majority of their teams snaps as rookies (Year-Games-Passer Rating)

    Ben Roethlisberger '04 (14)- 98.1
    Matt Ryan '08 (16)- 87.7
    Joe Flacco '08 (16)- 80.3
    Matt Leinart '06 (14)- 74.0
    Tim Couch '99 (15)- 73.2
    Byron Leftwich '03 (15)- 73.0
    Trent Edwards '07 (10)- 70.4
    Vince Young '06 (15)- 66.7
    Cade McNown '99 (15)- 66.7
    Quincy Carter '01 (8)- 63.0
    David Carr '02 (16)- 62.8
    Kyle Boller '03 (11)- 62.4
    Chris Weinke '01 (15)- 62.0
    Mark Sanchez '09 (10)- 61.1
    Joey Harrington '02 (14)- 59.9
    Kyle Orton '05 (15)- 59.7

    Meanwhile, while there is 1 notable quarterback in the last 10 years who succeeded in the league after starting as rookie (Roethlisberger, since Flacco and Ryan have only played for two years; Orton cannot be considered a success to this point), the following is a list of quarterbacks who waited at least one year before seeing significant playing time, as opposed to QBs who started the majority of snaps:

    Since 1999, quarterbacks who did not play the majority of their team's snaps their rookie season:

    -Donovan McNabb
    -Daunte Culpepper
    -Chad Pennington
    -Tom Brady
    -Michael Vick
    -Drew Brees
    -Carson Palmer
    -Eli Manning
    -Philip Rivers
    -Aaron Rodgers
    -Jay Cutler


    Jets fans should not be so optimistic that Sanchez will be "fine." Much more than likely, the Jets organization has ruined him beyond the point of return. You may protest, throw up your arms, or say that "my instinct" tells me Sanchez will succeed because he "looks" good out there. Bottom line is, every rookie quarterback is their team's starter because of that sexy potential. Everyone thought it would be a matter of time before guys like David Carr, Cade McNown, and Chris Weinke busted out to the next level.

    The Jets really botched this one. The success rate for a quarterback who sits out his first year is much higher than a rookie thrown into the starting lineup. Rather than being in the company of greats like Brady, Brees, and McNabb, history strongly suggests that Sanchez will be lumped instead with players like Harrington and Boller.
     
    Last edited: Nov 23, 2009
  2. PatsWickedPissah

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    Re: Why I think the Jets have permanently ruined Sanchez...

    Hopefully QB Kevin O'Connell is still on the JETS roster :)
     
  3. Synovia

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    Re: Why I think the Jets have permanently ruined Sanchez...

    Theres some HUGE selection bias here. A lot of the guys who didn't play significantly their rookie years didn't play because the team was actually good. Its a lot easier to work a QB into the system when your team went 10-6 the year before, and you've got a playoff quality offense, QB aside.

    Flacco and Ryan both walked into situations where they had good offensive lines, good RBs, and good WRs. (as did Rivers, Eli, Cutler, etc).


    Stafford and Sanchez have both walked into situations where nothing around them works.


    Plus, Eli Manning belongs on the first list, not the 2nd. I'm sure there are others.
     
  4. mayoclinic

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    Re: Why I think the Jets have permanently ruined Sanchez...

    The big thing that's noticeable with Sanchez is his decision making. He does a nice job of eluding the pass rush inside his own 5 yard line, then instead of throwing the ball away he makes a horrible decision throwing the ball off of his back foot deep in his own territory. Terrible decision. And that was far from an isolated instance.

    At this point Sanchez is shell-shocked. When you've throw more INTs than Jake Delhomme, that's bad - Sanchez is even giving Jay Cutler a run for his money as an INT maker. He needs to sit on the sideline, eat a few hot dogs, and learn how to be an NFL QB.
     
  5. Synovia

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    Re: Why I think the Jets have permanently ruined Sanchez...

    I see Cutler as a similar situation to Sanchez. Cutler is pretty much the only piece of talent in the bears offense right now. The line is terrible, and Hester is the only legitimate WR they have. Sanchez has a better line, and better WRs, but hes got nowhere near the tools at this point.


    He's pushing things because they need to push things to have any chance to win.
     
  6. Ice_Ice_Brady

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    Re: Why I think the Jets have permanently ruined Sanchez...

    In 2004, Kurt Warner had nearly 100 more passing attempts than Eli Manning. Don't say "I'm sure there are others" after your first statement was wrong. Why don't you do some research instead of attacking correct facts.

    Please name for me one good quarterback since 1999 that started the majority of his rookie year snaps and is not named Ben Roethlisberger. I bet you can only come up with two guys that have played two years (Flacco, Ryan) and Kyle Orton (wow!). I just gave you the 16 names.

    It's ridiculous to say this is based on the "system". The correlation between a year of experience vs. being thrown in as a rookie as about as high a correlation as you can get. Go through every draft and you'll see that there are 3-4 elite quarterbacks, based on expectations. On almost EVERY one, his success or failure depends on his first-year strategy.
     
  7. mayoclinic

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    Re: Why I think the Jets have permanently ruined Sanchez...

    I'm not so sure about that.

    The Bears have a horrible Oline, horrible receivers, and Forte has disappointed after a stellar rookie year. Cutler is clearly pushing, and making a lot of bad decision. He needs to learn to play within his limits.

    The Jets have much more options than the Bears. They have a very good offensive line, do a reasonable job of protecting Sanchez, have the leading rushing attack in the NFL right now, and have some reasonable receiving options for Sanchez between Edwards (despite the drops), Keller and Cotchery. Sanchez is just trying to be Brett Favre and making poor decisions. As someone said, right now Sanchez is Favre without the upside.
     
  8. KontradictioN

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    Re: Why I think the Jets have permanently ruined Sanchez...

    The bottom line is that Pete Carroll was right and Sanchez is not ready to lead an NFL team at this point. His decision making is absolutely terrible. When given time, however, he is capable of making some nice throws. Unfortunately, not every team is going to give him enough time to make a sandwich in the pocket. As of right now, it could really go either way. He could go the route of Joey Harrington or he could go the route of a Peyton Manning, who also had a terrible first couple of seasons before he "got it". (Note: I am not saying that Sanchez will ever be as good as Manning)

    Hopefully he goes the route of the Unibrow.
     
    Last edited: Nov 23, 2009
  9. Synovia

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    Re: Why I think the Jets have permanently ruined Sanchez...

    Eli Manning started 9 games that year, and got the majority of the snaps in the 10th. He was the starter for the majority of that season.


    The fact that they got more conservative calling plays once he started doesn't change that.
     
    Last edited: Nov 23, 2009
  10. Synovia

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    Re: Why I think the Jets have permanently ruined Sanchez...

    Even you should know (well, maybe not) that Correlation does not equal Causation.

    The couple examples I can think of with teams already having good offensive parts in place, are Roethlisburger, Eli Manning, Peyton Manning, Flacco, Ryan, etc.


    There are also PLENTY of examples of guys who didn't start their rookie years, and either sucked when they did, or never got to start.


    Honestly, I agree that a rookie QB shouldn't start, but the data doesn't prove anything.
     
  11. Ice_Ice_Brady

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    Re: Why I think the Jets have permanently ruined Sanchez...

    Actually under games started for 2004, you will see the number 7. I'm done with arguing with you. Clearly you are one of those people who just throws out BS because you want to win an argument.

    Eli Manning

    To recap: Manning played in the minority of the games (7) and the minority of the snaps (by almost 100.)

    How can you expect anyone to take you seriously on anything when, after I told you to research, you still threw out a bunch of false data.
     
  12. patsfan-1982

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    Re: Why I think the Jets have permanently ruined Sanchez...

    the way i see it if you can play then you can play Sanchez was not a good QB at USC he had some of the best college player around him and he did not put up big number's

    payton manning set a rookie record for INT's with 28 in he's rookie year he turned out ok

    big ban won 14 or 15 game's as a starter he's rookie year

    Sanchez look's like a pretty tough mind it guy if he come's out next year and is good then he is just a good QB if he come out next year and suck's then he is just a bust

    haveing a bad year this year will have noting to do with next year or the year after that

    when you draft a QB that high or give up that much to get him then he has to play
     
  13. Synovia

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    Re: Why I think the Jets have permanently ruined Sanchez...

    I skewed collumns when I pulled the stats into excel from ProFootball Reference. Chill out. People make mistakes.


    Still doesn't prove anything. Correlation does not equal correlation, especially when there are contrary examples.
     
  14. C'Mon Son

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    Re: Why I think the Jets have permanently ruined Sanchez...

    Good thread...but the truth is there is no right answer...a lot of qb's that sit out their first year struggle as well and become huge busts (JaMarcus Russell)...what could Sanchez have learned being on the sideline watching Kellen Clemens run the offense...the real question is for the Jets fans is what should be done with Sanchez now...he is clearly regressing so do you just let him ride it out and try to learn from his mistakes or do you let him sit and watch another qb run the offense
     
  15. MoLewisrocks

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    Re: Why I think the Jets have permanently ruined Sanchez...

    I think at the end of the day, you are what you are. Sanchez is Tony Romo absent Tuna and a couple of years on the bench. Got some charisma (unlike Cutler...who was a prick even under Shanahan on a playoff offense), a gunslinger at heart, can make all the throws when not under pressure, keeps plays alive long enough to make some, will also all to often err on the side of making the foolish mistake in the process, owner fell in love with the concept of him. He will outlast Rex and Tanny as Tony will Wade though not Jerry (or Cutler likely both Angelo and Lovie) just by virtue of the contracts.

    Getting pushed or paired with an incompetent doesn't help but the failures generally have egos and mindsets that predicated to failure at the next level. Had Holmgren not reigned in Favre while managing to win a SB early in his career... His only consistent success has begun to come of late when he actually does at least some of the things that he previously refused to that allowed Manning and Brady to achieve their level of consistency - study film like zealots and embrace the never good enough mentality and commit to a work ethic second to none to insure they keep refining their game in their prime and play unselfishly within their system.

    Being out of a similar gunslinger mold I'm not sure Ben would have survived this long without Cowher and Wisenhut maintaining a firm grasp on the reins in his first couple of seasons. He may yet not survive his own desire to produce consistently like Manning and Brady without mustering in the same off and in season dedication. He's on concussion 4 this week, 3 on and 1 off the field. And while his OL may share the blame, much of that is the result of Ben's own determination to do it his way and dictate the Steelers adapt.

    Sanchise doesn't strike me as stubborn or careless egomaniac like some of his peers. He has a lot more passion/emotion than Carr or and a lot less arrogance than Harrington had. His problem will be inferior coaching, and coaching changes and system changes and neverending irrational expectations. Same kind that de-railed and eventually killed Noodle's career. Chad was pretty passionate too, and as a result mis-placed loyalty cost him. But he was a damn sight more cerebral than this kid and most of his ilk. If he survives another go round with Dr. Andrews, I wouldn't be surprised to see Josh take a run at him.

    If Sanchise can survive his sophomore slump... maybe the next HC of the NYJ will salvage him. Although history with that franchise doesn't bode well.
     
    Last edited: Nov 23, 2009
  16. Rob0729

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    Re: Why I think the Jets have permanently ruined Sanchez...

    Sanchez is in the wrong place to be developed the way he is. He is already getting eaten alive by the NY press and fans. It is clear the pressure is getting to him (last week's press conference is exhibit A and his performance on the field yesterday as exhibit B). I am beginning to wonder if he would have been better suited going to another city where the media and fans aren't as brutal.

    I do agree with Pete Carroll that he should have stayed in school. He doesn't appear to be ready for the speed of the NFL and his decision making skills are pathetic at times.
     
  17. Ice_Ice_Brady

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    Re: Why I think the Jets have permanently ruined Sanchez...

    The bottom line is, there are 14 quarterbacks who started the majority of their rookie season snaps since 1998, and posted a QB rating of under 75. This is the same thing that Sanchez is doing.

    Of those 14 quarterbacks of rookie <75, one quarterback is one of the greatest of all-time (Manning). One other quarterback is having a decent season, despite being called a bust many times over (Orton).

    Of the other 12 (that's 12/14) quarterbacks who disappointed in their rookie seasons, every single one of them has fallen apart. Most of them have blamed "the system", eventually gotten traded to another system, failed again, and then retired. I don't see why Sanchez will be any different. The numbers are stacked against him.
     
  18. HarkDawg

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    Re: Why I think the Jets have permanently ruined Sanchez...

    he is not ruined... just rushed....


    I wish he was, but.... BRADY had time to grow as player and had a role as a bench player(behind) MR. I wear SNOWSHOES while moving in the pocket (Drew Bledsoe)..... just like Matt Cassell did so w/ a Starting BRADY he had time to grow in his future role...... He practiced and not have a starting role immediately. Not until TFB went down did we see a Cassell emerge out of???:confused:
     
  19. HarkDawg

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    Re: Why I think the Jets have permanently ruined Sanchez...

    just saying guys.......



    In time.... he could be a solid QB..... but I hope I am wrong.
     
  20. MoLewisrocks

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    Re: Why I think the Jets have permanently ruined Sanchez...

    Your scattershot posts are just the worst. And we all get you don't get it. Think, read, maybe even learn something in the process, and in the meantime post less.
     
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