Latest Samuel Article by Reiss

[TomBrady'sGoat]

did someone say it was obvious a year ago asante would be a stud DB? history gets revised quickly around here.

i agree with the guy who said to enter the offseason knowing there is no way an extension happens. anyone hoping for an extension is fooling himself. you might think it sucks, but move on.

tag and trade, or tag him and pay him 8M for a year if you don't feel you can replace him and you want to field your best possible team next year.

 

[Seneschal2]

You guys are missing it all here...Do you really think we can replace Asante in the Offseason.

We'll find out.

The draft is weak on Corners and the FA market isn't any better.

Well, I haven't studied the FA market but how do you KNOW there aren't any quality CBs in this draft? We only need one who fits.

Asante is in his 4th year and is defenitely becoming a top corner.

Well he certainly didn't show starting ability as a rookie -- he developed. And as a 4th round pick, I doubt we had expectations of him EVER starting. The other starter, Hobbs, was a 3rd round pick...and if Samuel leaves, Gay (the undrafted one) is the most likely candidate to fill his shoes -- along with competition from a rookie or FA. I actually thought Gay was a better cover corner than Samuel before his phenomenal season. Gay's problem is injuries -- but he can cover.

If Asante isn't playing Corner next year, we will have big issues.

On paper it seems that way. The reality is though, we don't know NOW who will be competing for his spot. If we did, we'd have more hope.

 

[D-cleater]

Re: Come Ahhnn

It's hardly as easy as that. Signing early usually costs the player money, as your premise admits. Many, undoubtedly with the coaxing of their agents, choose to take the risk that they will have a breakout year and make even more money as a result. Moreover, there is no way of knowing which players will become stars: the risk in making that assumption too often is that you have a great many contracts of the high-middle class sort, where you paid the player a little less before they exploded, but then they never did. An example based on numbers (not contracts) would be Eugene Wilson: he had a good and promising 2004, and perhaps they could have locked him up then long-term. But what has he done since to warrant that money?

Finally, a player like Asante seems to be immature in many ways; I really like the guy, but who knows whether he will bring the same intensity too the field next year after he gets paid? what if he shuts it down? Sure, anoother 10 interception year would be awesome, but it seems just as likely that he would turn in a 2005-like performance. Would last year's Asante be worth 8.5mil/year plus $10 million signing bonus?

BB and Pioli look for guys that love football, not just money and rep and the rest of it...not sure if Asante qualifies or not. We'll see.

I hear ya. Ty Warren is a man who loves football though, according to BB. It is also evident by his play. He anchors one side of our front seven. IMO, the time to extend him is before the final year of his contract.

I think the FO also has to have a sense of who they are dealing with. There are some types of players who you just sense are easier to negotiate with, and some who are much harder. It doesn't take a genius to read between the lines here.

Easier:
Brady, Bruschi, Light, Koppen, Neal, even Vrabel. Harrison.

Difficult:
Law, Milloy, Branch, Seymour, McGinest, Samuel........ Warren? Wilfork? Graham?

It wouldn't hurt to try to identify these situations before they come to fruition. If we think that a player is going to all of the sudden drop off the map after they sign a contract, and therefore we should never extend them, then I question that philosophy. What we are essentially doing is grooming young players for other teams. If we are going to give the Chad Jacksons and the Ben Watsons three years to develop before getting significant valuable playing time, injuries notwithstanding, it seems like a waste if they are just going to finally come around in time to get a big contract with another team.

 

[ajmitch81]

Someone said this is a weak CB draft? On the contrary from what I read this is one of the deeper CB and Safety Drafts of the past few years.

There's not a Champ Bailey/Chris McAllister shut down corner, but guys like Darelle Revis, Leon Hall, or Marcus McCauley could be terrific players and in due time provide a more than adequate replacement for Samuel and the bloated salary he'll almost certainly get if/when his agent decides to test the FA waters. After all he's a Corner and they always get bloated salaries.

 

[kolbitr]

Re: Come Ahhnn

I hear ya. Ty Warren is a man who loves football though, according to BB. It is also evident by his play. He anchors one side of our front seven. IMO, the time to extend him is before the final year of his contract.

I think the FO also has to have a sense of who they are dealing with. There are some types of players who you just sense are easier to negotiate with, and some who are much harder. It doesn't take a genius to read between the lines here.
...
[edited]
...

No disagreement here. Maybe what we have seen is the result of this divide, with guys like Neal, Koppen, et. al. staying on, while Branch and Law leave. Warren is one guy I expect will get locked up.

Stars are great to have, but just as important are genuine playmakers. Guys like Bruschi and Harrison were magical in 2003–04: how many times did we see them seem to have a preternatural sense of what play would be run, and where the ball would end up? Yet neither one was, at that time in their careers, superstars (Rodney was questioned by San Diego, Bruschi was beloved only in NE). I put Vrabel into that same category.

Ty Law was a defensive star, and a playmaker, obviously. But these guys are going to be more expensive since the thinking is that they could be players anywhere. This isn't always the case, as I think we will see with Deion. A great asset to this team, and a good guy by all accounts, but not a genuine star (not that WR stars are always an unquestioned plus: see e.g., Owens, T.).

Is Samuel a Law/Bailey type, or was he playing above himself this year? I don't think he's Champ Bailey; but if Champ Bailey was always this good, why did Washington trade him away (plus another player!) for a running back?

Like I said, I really like Asante: he has good ball instincts, and is not afraid to lay it on receivers. He and Ellis Hobbs would get better over time playing together...with another good young safety for Rodney to train. But Asante also has to be willing to sacrifice some of his stats for the team--would he do that once he "Gets Paid"? I can't say, but I expect that would be a big matter for discussion.

 

[everlong]

Re: Come Ahhnn

Difficult:
Law, Milloy, Branch, Seymour, McGinest, Samuel........ Warren? Wilfork? Graham?

They cannot afford to play hardball when Warren and Wilfork come up. They should get deals done in advance.

I'm hoping they get something done with Graham but he went to Colorado and the Broncos were rumored to have a lot of interest in him. I'd hate to see him in Denver. I think he's one of the most under-valued guys we have.

 

[The Predator]

Someone said this is a weak CB draft? On the contrary from what I read this is one of the deeper CB and Safety Drafts of the past few years.

There's not a Champ Bailey/Chris McAllister shut down corner, but guys like Darelle Revis, Leon Hall, or Marcus McCauley could be terrific players and in due time provide a more than adequate replacement for Samuel and the bloated salary he'll almost certainly get if/when his agent decides to test the FA waters. After all he's a Corner and they always get bloated salaries.

You are exactly right. Anybody who says this is a weak draft for CB is blowing smoke and hasn't researched it. I think we have a shot at landing McCauley and or Revis. Both have huge potential. I love the way McC plays and IMO he will be very good.

 

[40yrpatsfan]

The way Samuel developed this year was the most surprising thing I can ever recall seeing. In a matter of 3 months, he went from being a decent young corner to being a top 5 corner. And there's no question that's the level he's now at.

Ty Law never had a season as good as the one just delivered by Assante, and as the games got bigger, his play got even better. Aside from McCallister and Bailey, there's not another corner I can think of who's clearly better. He's got tremendous market value.

 

[Mike the Brit]

Re: Come Ahhnn

Bravo!!!! Be careful, someone will suggest that you become a Redskins fan for thinking like this. There is no such thing as a comprimise among many board members here. It's all black and white.

Just wait till 2008 -2009. Lotta contracts coming due in those years, including just about our whole front seven. Imagine us extending Warren to a contract extension *before* he makes the Pro Bowl or busts out for 10 sacks?? Crazy, huh? Absolute lunacy. I should be a Redskins fan.

OK, that makes at least three of us that think this way. Warren and Hobbs now, please!

Oh, and to whoever said that Asante was "no Ty Law". Of course not, but I never saw Ty Law play Marvin Harrison better than Asante did on Sunday. The touchdown pick was just astonishing. Whether Asante comes back or not, he played a great, great game in a losing cause.

 

[AdamJT13]

The Patriots do hold one trump card in the negotiation, as they could retain Samuel's rights by placing the franchise tag on him. The franchise tag for cornerbacks has not been set for 2007; it was $7.2 million this season.

It's been set at $7.79 million.

 

[PatsFanInVa]

When I heard about the "Get Paid" tattoo, I figured this was coming. When I read his agent's comments, it became all too obvious that he has no desire to stick around (if he and his agent are, in fact, of the same mind -- which, judging from the tattoo, appears likely.)

Samuel's agent has already made public comments about how terrible it would be if Samuel were franchised as a stalling tactic.

We even disagree if he's worth franchising, and his agent is already making desultory comments on the subject.

Do we really think Shavers is going for less money for Samuel?

Samuel's not going to be worth the $7.2-8M for a franchise tag, unless we can vend his franchised ***** on the street, as it were. In that circumstance, as Beliboy points out, we get something for our trouble.

The only caveat I can supply is this:
The league is currently awash in new cap money. Therefore, a franchise tag based on existing contracts is comparatively cheap this year, as it reflects a reality prior (in some cases) to last year's $17M/team increase, and 2007 and 2008's increases of $7M/team per year.

Since we're right in the middle of a period of rapid cap inflation, franchise tags (which often reflect deals already in place via the "average of the top five" formula,) may therefore be better values relative to prior years.

It seems quite likely that Shavers is doing his best to threaten sulkiness and poor play on Samuel's part, as the "punishment" for a "misapplied" franchise tag, so he may very well have done that math.

PFnV

 

[FilPats]

I am just bothered by the name of Samuel's agent Shavers, considering that we have Gillette stadium (The razor). But maybe, it could work out right.

 

[DaBruinz]

Re: Come Ahhnn

these players, givens, branch, and samuel, should have been locked up BEFORE the got into their walk year.
THAT's the point at which a hometown discount is viable.
seymour took less $. ya can't expect others to do the same.
IMHO it was clear that asante was gonna become an elite cornerback 2 years ago. it was also clear about branch and givens the year before the walk year of their rookie contracts.
especially when you have the cap room.
so why, why, do patriots jerk players around when it could be so much easier?

Ilduce -
You must have been one of a very select few that felt that Samuel was going to become an ELITE CB (which he isn't, btw) 2 years ago. Most people have been saying that Samuel would be an adequate #2 CB. Asante benefits more from this defense than Ty Law did. And Ty Law is a much better CB than Samuel.

As for "jerking players around" WTF are you talking about? I guess you need to be reminded that the Patriots approached both Branch and Givens prior to the end of the 2005-2006 season about signing long term deals. Both players rebuffed them, with Branch not even bothering to give a counter offer. Givens wanted Hines Ward money. Which was laughable then, and, well, is still laughable. Givens isn't a #1 WR. He was a good #2, but that's it.

The Pats don't overspend on players. Period. And, if you show a willingness to work with them, they will work with you to get a deal done. That is how the Seymour deal got done. That is how the Brady deal got done. That is how all the OTHER deals (Light, Koppen, Neal, Harrison, Colvin, Vrabel, Bruschi, etc, etc) have gotten done. How is it that you over-look all of the players the Pats HAVE signed to longer term deals?

 

[Mike the Brit]

Re: Come Ahhnn

Ilduce -
You must have been one of a very select few that felt that Samuel was going to become an ELITE CB (which he isn't, btw) 2 years ago. Most people have been saying that Samuel would be an adequate #2 CB. Asante benefits more from this defense than Ty Law did. And Ty Law is a much better CB than Samuel.

As for "jerking players around" WTF are you talking about? I guess you need to be reminded that the Patriots approached both Branch and Givens prior to the end of the 2005-2006 season about signing long term deals. Both players rebuffed them, with Branch not even bothering to give a counter offer. Givens wanted Hines Ward money. Which was laughable then, and, well, is still laughable. Givens isn't a #1 WR. He was a good #2, but that's it.

The Pats don't overspend on players. Period. And, if you show a willingness to work with them, they will work with you to get a deal done. That is how the Seymour deal got done. That is how the Brady deal got done. That is how all the OTHER deals (Light, Koppen, Neal, Harrison, Colvin, Vrabel, Bruschi, etc, etc) have gotten done. How is it that you over-look all of the players the Pats HAVE signed to longer term deals?

We probably will just have to disagree about this, but it's worth considering that the consideration with Samuel cuts both ways.

My own assessment is in agreement with whoever it was (sorry, I've forgotten. Edit: 40 Year Pats Fan) who said that Samuel made a huge and unexpected amount of progress this season to turn into a top-notch cornerback. He went from a back who seemed to play over-aggressively in the hope of interceptions but then, all too often, didn't hold on to his opportunities to a sticky-handed interception-maker who is also excellent at holding coverage and breaking up passes.

What's more (I'm going to put this in bold because no one should forget this principle when we debate playing strategy) the NFL is not "plug-and-play":

The value of a player who is experienced in a team and system is far greater than it would be to another team. Correspondingly, it is also greater than that of a player of equal talent who might be recruited to replace a player who leaves.

OK, bear all that in mind and the point is this: Samuel himself couldn't have known that he would develop to such a point. Thus an offer that gave him a big payday (a lump sum of $6-$10 million) would have looked mighty attractive a couple of years ago, though he wouldn't begin to look at it now.

 

[BTTA]

http://www.boston.com/sports/footba...2007/01/23/price_goes_up_on_cornerback_samuel

Just read the Mike Reiss article on Samuel and I have to say that Asante is a friggin child if he felt "slighted" by being moved to RCB in preseason for one game and by not beinig put on Lee Evans.

Not to mention this garbage about the Patriots "not promoting" Samuel for the Pro-Bowl. Give me a friggin break, Asante. Its clear to me that Asante has his priorities WRONG.

We need to be careful to keep seperate what he says and what his agent says. His agent is paid to drum up some drama here.

 

[TomBrady'sGoat]

Re: Come Ahhnn

OK, bear all that in mind and the point is this: Samuel himself couldn't have known that he would develop to such a point. Thus an offer that gave him a big payday (a lump sum of $6-$10 million) would have looked mighty attractive a couple of years ago, though he wouldn't begin to look at it now.

By this same logic they should have offered Eugene Wilson an even better deal than Asante a couple years ago, since he was playing better than Asante at the time. It would look awful now, but the Asante deal would look great!

The flaw with your logic is that you're allowed to overlook the guys who didn't improve while focusing on guys like Asante who did. When you do that of course the Patriots look stupid to not pay guys ahead of time.

And I just want to add that PFnV hit the nail on the head re: the cap. Tagging Asante is a no-brainer; normally you have to work out a deal because the 1-year franchise tender is unwieldy. With the salary inflation we saw last year and are bound to see this offseason 7-8M for Asante is just fine.

Besides, he'll have a lot of trade value. I'd be shocked if they couldn't get more than a future #1 next for him.

 

[Mike the Brit]

Re: Come Ahhnn

By this same logic they should have offered Eugene Wilson an even better deal than Asante a couple years ago, since he was playing better than Asante at the time. It would look awful now, but the Asante deal would look great!

The flaw with your logic is that you're allowed to overlook the guys who didn't improve while focusing on guys like Asante who did. When you do that of course the Patriots look stupid to not pay guys ahead of time.

And I just want to add that PFnV hit the nail on the head re: the cap. Tagging Asante is a no-brainer; normally you have to work out a deal because the 1-year franchise tender is unwieldy. With the salary inflation we saw last year and are bound to see this offseason 7-8M for Asante is just fine.

Besides, he'll have a lot of trade value. I'd be shocked if they couldn't get more than a future #1 next for him.

No. You have to make decisions and you have to evaluate players. But my logic is that you offer them extensions when they have established themselves as reliable starters -- yes, Wilson and Samuel then, Warren, Wilfork and Hobbs now.

But, of course, you give them an offer that will set them up for life but not what they would get in free agency. It's a completely different approach and agents wouldn't like it (there isn't a "market" that they can just add ten per cent to) but the Eagles are using something like it and it is clear to me that, with the amount of resentment there is amongst players on their first contract, the Patriots need a radical re-think of their strategy.

Asante is NOT a bad guy -- just think about what it takes to get that tattoo!

 

[oldskool138]

Re: Come Ahhnn

Asante is NOT a bad guy -- just think about what it takes to get that tattoo!

Tattoo don't hurt that much. (Unless it's near your elbow or shin...personal experience). It's those "E" brands you see on some football players arms that must hurt like hell.

 

[FloridaPatsFan]

It would not surprise me if the Patriots franchise Asante this year, but, if they offered a 10 million signing bonus and 35 million over 6 years and he rejects that offer, I would be shocked.

I think we are seeing Asante become one of the elite CB's in this league and the way Hobbs played down the stretch, I think we have our CB duo for years to come.

I am willing to bet that the Patriots go after Asante and Warren to sign quickly.

 

[minvardar]

Assante just has a typical cornerback's attitude. Hopefully we can resign him to a decent contract. Pay him well but don't break the bank. If there really is no replacement out there then definitely franchise him for one year. If there is a half decent replacement sign the replacement and then try the franchise and trade route. I just get the feeling he will be elsewhere. Someone will be willing to pay him more money than he is worth. There are so few teams out there that can handle the cap very well.

But I am all for signing both Wilfork and Warren to long term contracts now. That would be a great defensive line for a long time. The offensive line is set for a while so now would be a good time to get the defensive line signed.