Belichick: Most Important Defensive Stat is Points Allowed

[mosslost]

Giving up 10 points has settled the critics down a bit, even though it was against the Lambs.

they have only given up 17.2 PPG this whole year.

 

[1960Pats]

It's more that a lot of people were thrashing the team's D and other fans responded.

No offense to anyone, but AJ kicked ass defending the points allowed position. It was like watching the Pats play Indy.

they have only given up 17.2 PPG this whole year.

And yet they were being called average or below average. Weird huh?

 

[Ring 6]

I see your point there, The patriots defense is not bad, and does not need to be massively improved.
As for your 2nd point, the Patriots were the 8th ranked defense in terms of points in 2010 and were by far the worst 3rd down defense in the league. What stat tells the story more about that defense

Why worry about 3rd down conversions? Because they could lead to points. If they don't lead to points they were not a big deal.
Theoretically if you allow fewer 3rd down conversions yiu allow fewer points and therefore are more likely to win. But the team that allows more inversions but overcome them and allow fewer points is better that the team that stops more 3rd downs but allows more points.

This is the problem with placing other things above points allowed.
Those things could, might or are likely to result in more points but if they do not they didn't matter.


And the tired old keep the offense off the field argument is silly because at worst it is one or two conversions a game and does not have that effect.

 

[mosslost]

No offense to anyone, but AJ kicked ass defending the points allowed position. It was like watching the Pats play Indy.



And yet they were being called average or below average. Weird huh?

The funny thing is, I have always checked Defense PPG going way way back to see how we were doing (fan since 74)

I have known it is what to look at for a long time on the Defense. Just makes sense. I remember at the time following the 2003 team Defense PPG, as it was happening, week to week. Not sure why it is such a mystery to everyone.

 

[RobertWeathers]

No offense to anyone, but AJ kicked ass defending the points allowed position. It was like watching the Pats play Indy.



And yet they were being called average or below average. Weird huh?

@AndyJohnson kicked ass on the points allowed argument being the most important defensive statistic because it is.

If they allow less than 67 points over the next 4 games they will have allowed the least amount of points by Patriot defense in 10 seasons.

To say the defense is not very good is moronic.

 

[mgcolby]

The funny thing is, I have always checked Defense PPG going way way back to see how we were doing (fan since 74)

I have known it is what to look at for a long time on the Defense. Just makes sense. I remember at the time following the 2003 team Defense PPG, as it was happening, week to week. Not sure why it is such a mystery to everyone.

Because the NFL and news sites rank defenses by total yardage. That has never made any sense to me, you don't judge W's and L's on total yardage so why would you rank Offenses and Defenses by total yardage.

 

[mosslost]

I like the last point because this reminds me of the 2nd half of the Miami game where people were going crazy because we could not stop Miami. But it was obvious we were just trying to get out of there with a wn. Trading Yards for time. And i Like the poimt you made about the fluke. Turnovers will greatly knock down PPG. At the end of the day I let my eyes form my opinion. And use the stats to back up my argument.

worst thing you can do is let your "eyes" make the judgment. (The "eye test" by the non football eye)

A bend but don't break defense is likely to seem like it is failing to someone who is LOOKING for sacks, LOOKING for pressure. That is not what the Bend dont break defense is about. You look at the scoreboard to judge the Defense and the team.

 

[mosslost]

Because the NFL and news sites rank defenses by total yardage. That has never made any sense to me, you don't judge W's and L's on total yardage so why would you rank Offenses and Defenses by total yardage.

It's funny I got the habit from being a young Celtics fan actually. The NBA (and the NFL as well) should be judged by 1. Win/Loss 2. OPPG, DPPG, and 3.) Point difference (which actually is very important in football, but taken in as a whole.. (the average and the season) It is the reason I judge the 04 team higher than the 03 team. The 03 team was better D PPG than 04. BUT the 04 team dominated more, had much bigger point differential (I think it averaged more than 10 points more than its opponents)

 

[QuantumMechanic]

What's a better defense -- holding a set of teams who average 30ppg to an average of 23ppg or allowing a set of teams who average 14ppg to score an average of 17ppg?

That's why points allowed isn't some magical be all end all by itself. And you know BB knows it, too. If NE were to beat both CLE (16.4ppg) and ATL (32.3ppg) and allowed each team to score 24 are you seriously going to claim that BB would be equally satisfied with the defensive performances just because the defense allowed the same number of points in each game?

 

[mgcolby]

What's a better defense -- holding a set of teams who average 30ppg to an average of 23ppg or allowing a set of teams who average 14ppg to score an average of 17ppg?

That's why points allowed isn't some magical be all end all by itself. And you know BB knows it, too. If NE were to beat both CLE (16.4ppg) and ATL (32.3ppg) and allowed each team to score 24 are you seriously going to claim that BB would be equally satisfied with the defensive performances just because the defense allowed the same number of points in each game?

Thats a valid point. Yet it doesn't matter how you apply that theory. You can do that to yards just as easily. So at the end of the day the only thing that matters is the scoreboard. Everything else is secondary.

 

[Actual Pats Fan]

I don't know why the NFL ranks them in terms of yardage...so dumb.

Well, you need to keep stats on something...like, QB rating too. Can be useful, not perfect by any means.

 

[SlowGettingUp]

Claim here is the Pats have had (by one measure) the easiest schedule to date:

>>Another reason that conventional wisdom and DVOA differ on the strength of the New England Patriots: they've played the easiest schedule in the league so far based on average DVOA of opponent, although Tennessee or Indianapolis will probably still end up with the easiest schedule for the full season

They rank the Pats defense as right in the middle of the pack. But Pats still (narrowly) number 1 overall:

FOOTBALL OUTSIDERS: Innovative Statistics, Intelligent Analysis | Week 13 DVOA Ratings

 

[mosslost]

Well, you need to keep stats on something...like, QB rating too. Can be useful, not perfect by any means.

Plunkett's QB rating sucks

 

[fnordcircle]

It's like this Jeff Fisher wannabe doesn't even read this forum.

 

[mgcolby]

Everyone talks about who we played and how bad the offenses have been. Well we have 6 common opponents with Baltimore and 7 games. So its pretty close comparison. No one questions Baltimore's defense, yet many doubt ours. Well they are holding their opponents to 1.7 PPG less than we are.

Baltimore opponents average 22.4PPG scored in games that weren't against Baltimore.
NE opponents average 20.7 PPG scored in games that weren't against NE.

Neither team are playing the 2007 Pats offense on a weekly basis.

 

[Ring 6]

Well Seattle is giving up 283 yds per game and giving up 15.6 points per game.
New England is giving up 347 yds per game and giving up 15.2 points per game.

As the sample size grows bigger and if the trend continues there is no way New England should be ahead in points allowed.

Remember we played the Texans.... Not only does there offense suck but there play calling sucked even more in the game we played them. So that will skew the stats a bit.

I thought you weren't talking about the defense until after the Denver game

You should have kept your word because this mess you posted is a disaster.
Yards are one of the components of points. There are thousands of variables in defense all adding up together to get the result which is points which is whether you win or lose.
theoretically if you allow more points that is one variable that could potentially add up to more points but all of the other variables are at play as well including unquantifiable factors such as playing better on more important plays.
To say that one of the variables that lead to a result is a better gauge of the result than the result itself is moronic.

 

[Ring 6]

So you know more about NFL defenses than BB? I have to assume that's what you're saying since its well-known that points allowed is by far the most important defensive stat according to him. Wow, hats off to you.

But we can pick and choose what numbers we will get.
It's not about what actually happens it's about creating a make believe math problem that supports what I would like it to.
I'd rather allow a FG and then have my offense get a touchdown than stop the team and have my offense not score.
Scholarly work that is.

 

[deroc5050]

I thought you weren't talking about the defense until after the Denver game

You should have kept your word because this mess you posted is a disaster.
Yards are one of the components of points. There are thousands of variables in defense all adding up together to get the result which is points which is whether you win or lose.
theoretically if you allow more points that is one variable that could potentially add up to more points but all of the other variables are at play as well including unquantifiable factors such as playing better on more important plays.
To say that one of the variables that lead to a result is a better gauge of the result than the result itself is moronic.

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Andy look at the date on the Post... I will do it for you it was OCTOBER 21st well over 2 weeks ago. Jesus.

The last 3 weeks they have played poor offenses, like I said I will not comment on the defense. But I will guess.. they will be playing conservative against Flacco. They won't be doing any corner blitzes. But thats just a guess and I sort of just broke my rule.

 

[Ring 6]

What's a better defense -- holding a set of teams who average 30ppg to an average of 23ppg or allowing a set of teams who average 14ppg to score an average of 17ppg?

That's why points allowed isn't some magical be all end all by itself. And you know BB knows it, too. If NE were to beat both CLE (16.4ppg) and ATL (32.3ppg) and allowed each team to score 24 are you seriously going to claim that BB would be equally satisfied with the defensive performances just because the defense allowed the same number of points in each game?

Let's just make up unrealtistic things that will never happen.

By the way if you win both of those games you won both of those games and they are over and none of those points count in any other games.

 

[Ring 6]

'

Andy look at the date on the Post... I will do it for you it was OCTOBER 21st well over 2 weeks ago. Jesus.

The last 3 weeks they have played poor offenses, like I said I will not comment on the defense. But I will guess.. they will be playing conservative against Flacco. They won't be doing any corner blitzes. But thats just a guess and I sort of just broke my rule.

My bad thought this was a new thread