Belichick: Most Important Defensive Stat is Points Allowed

[Nunchucks]

Another thing to consider is red zone defense. I would be much more comfortable if the Patriots red zone defense was more stout.

 

[deroc5050]

Well Seattle is giving up 283 yds per game and giving up 15.6 points per game.
New England is giving up 347 yds per game and giving up 15.2 points per game.

As the sample size grows bigger and if the trend continues there is no way New England should be ahead in points allowed.

Remember we played the Texans.... Not only does there offense suck but there play calling sucked even more in the game we played them. So that will skew the stats a bit.

 

[Ring 6]

Well Seattle is giving up 283 yds per game and giving up 15.6 points per game.
New England is giving up 347 yds per game and giving up 15.2 points per game.

As the sample size grows bigger and if the trend continues there is no way New England should be ahead in points allowed.

Remember we played the Texans.... Not only does there offense suck but there play calling sucked even more in the game we played them. So that will skew the stats a bit.

Why would the numbers change if things stay the same?
That doesnt make sense

 

[Ring 6]

Points allowed matter a lot. However, when a defense cannot get off the field and the offense struggles, even if you hold a team to 14 points, it may not be enough. Possessions matter. That last superbowl against the Giants shows the huge gaping hole in "the only thing that matters is points" theory. Get off the field, get the ball to the offense!

Think this through.
You argument leads to the conclusion that allowing points in order to get off the field is better than allowing a long drive with no points so you can get more possessions.
That makes no sense because now you need to score on that possession just to make up for the points you allowed.

I would agree with this statement.

The first test of a defense is not giving up points. In addition to that it would be better still if whole not giving up points they got off the field quickly. But giving up more points while getting off the field faster is not better.

 

[brdmaverick]

..........we interrupt your regularly scheduled program as we switch over to some breaking news............


(News Reporter): Earlier today Patriots coach Bill Belichick provided some insight on the most important defensive stat. Now, to the amazement of the crowd, he has expounded upon this sentiment to give us what he considers to be the most important GAME stat......

Footage of Belichick: "The most important GAME stat is points scored vs points allowed."


.........we now bring you back to your regularaly schedule program....................................

 

[brdmaverick]

Why would the numbers change if things stay the same?
That doesnt make sense

Good counterpoint.........perhaps he was referecing the old adage 'The more things change the more they stay the same."

 

[QuantumMechanic]

The first test of a defense is not giving up points. In addition to that it would be better still if whole not giving up points they got off the field quickly. But giving up more points while getting off the field faster is not better.

Disagree because of the usual variance issues.

If you have a superior offense you want it to have lots of possessions. This is why inferior teams slow the game down and try to reduce the number of possessions, in the hope that variance will overcome talent that day.

So if I'm scoring 3.0 points per possession (ppp) I'd rather have a defense that gets off the field fast and gives up 2ppp rather than a defense that gives up sustained drives but only 1.8ppp.

The average number of possessions in an NFL game is around 12 for each team.

Say the "fast but gives up more points" 2ppp defense allows me to have 16 drives. Then on average I'll score 48 and give up 32. So I have 16 points of slack to overcome bad luck.

And say the "gives up long drives but allows fewer points" 1.8ppp defense only lets me have 8 drives because they can't get off the field quickly. Now the average score is 24 to 14.4 and there's only 9.6 points of slack available.

 

[deroc5050]

Why would the numbers change if things stay the same?
That doesnt make sense

Obviously because we played the Texans... in all seriousness if your giving up 70-80 less yards per game that will eventually have an effect on total points. I am not saying that points allowed isn't the most important stat but it doesn't tell the whole story especially only playing 6 games.

 

[Ring 6]

Obviously because we played the Texans... in all seriousness if your giving up 70-80 less yards per game that will eventually have an effect on total points. I am not saying that points allowed isn't the most important stat but it doesn't tell the whole story especially only playing 6 games.

If your defensive philosophy/talent results in more yards but less points that is better than one that results in less yards and more points.
The Texans are an NFL team. Don't you think Seattle and others have played bad teams.

 

[Ring 6]

Disagree because of the usual variance issues.

If you have a superior offense you want it to have lots of possessions. This is why inferior teams slow the game down and try to reduce the number of possessions, in the hope that variance will overcome talent that day.

So if I'm scoring 3.0 points per possession (ppp) I'd rather have a defense that gets off the field fast and gives up 2ppp rather than a defense that gives up sustained drives but only 1.8ppp.

The average number of possessions in an NFL game is around 12 for each team.

Say the "fast but gives up more points" 2ppp defense allows me to have 16 drives. Then on average I'll score 48 and give up 32. So I have 16 points of slack to overcome bad luck.

And say the "gives up long drives but allows fewer points" 1.8ppp defense only lets me have 8 drives because they can't get off the field quickly. Now the average score is 24 to 14.4 and there's only 9.6 points of slack available.

No because a drive that is likely NFL and allows fewer points is better than a drive that is short an allows more points.
You are trying to create a scenario that is unrealistic and probably impossible to make a point.

 

[Bruins29]

Remember we played the Texans.... Not only does there offense suck but there play calling sucked even more in the game we played them. So that will skew the stats a bit.

Remember we played a game without a QB essentially also, so that will SKU them the other way.

 

[bishbash]

Rich Hill reports that since 2012, when Matt Patricia was hired as DC, the Pat's are second only to the Seahawks in points allowed.

 

[neuronet]

I like this take by Hightower when asked about our supposed Defensive struggles:

“Man, I don’t know why y’all keep asking those questions,” Hightower said. “I feel like we’ve played good all year. Y’all are the ones who keep saying that stuff. We know what we have on defense. We just gotta keep going out and proving and playing the way we’ve been playing the last three or four weeks.”

Dont’a Hightower On The Defensive About Questioning Patriots’ Defense

Maybe someone should have asked him about DVOA or DOA stats or the advanced metric sites!

 

[mosslost]

Did anyone say it wasn't? I believe the contention is that points allowed isn't the be-all, end-all measurement of a defense.

right. But plenty of people were saying the Defense was horrible. They were and are totally wrong. (Not saying that was you) The low PPG is true for this team, and the constant referring to the stat was a rebuttal of fans trashing this D earlier in the year, even though it went 3 and 1 without Brady, and still has only lost 2 games in 12.

 

[mosslost]

I could be wrong, but I just got the feeling that some people here think yards/game mattered more. Obviously both yards and points are important but people here differ on which is more important.

It's more that a lot of people were thrashing the team's D and other fans responded.

 

[mosslost]

BB's defensive philosophy defines the irony of winning football being frustrating to watch as a fan.

I would find it way more frustrating to watch 75 yard touch down plays by the other team.

 

[mosslost]

No its a discussion about what might hold the team back and what needs to be improved.

it is by design.

 

[1960Pats]

right. But plenty of people were saying the Defense was horrible. They were and are totally wrong. (Not saying that was you) The low PPG is true for this team, and the constant referring to the stat was a rebuttal of fans trashing this D earlier in the year, even though it went 3 and 1 without Brady, and still has only lost 2 games in 12.

Giving up 10 points has settled the critics down a bit, even though it was against the Lambs.

 

[jimnance]

Disagree because of the usual variance issues.

If you have a superior offense you want it to have lots of possessions. This is why inferior teams slow the game down and try to reduce the number of possessions, in the hope that variance will overcome talent that day.

So if I'm scoring 3.0 points per possession (ppp) I'd rather have a defense that gets off the field fast and gives up 2ppp rather than a defense that gives up sustained drives but only 1.8ppp.

The average number of possessions in an NFL game is around 12 for each team.

Say the "fast but gives up more points" 2ppp defense allows me to have 16 drives. Then on average I'll score 48 and give up 32. So I have 16 points of slack to overcome bad luck.

And say the "gives up long drives but allows fewer points" 1.8ppp defense only lets me have 8 drives because they can't get off the field quickly. Now the average score is 24 to 14.4 and there's only 9.6 points of slack available.

So you know more about NFL defenses than BB? I have to assume that's what you're saying since its well-known that points allowed is by far the most important defensive stat according to him. Wow, hats off to you.

 

[Ring 6]

Did anyone say it wasn't? I believe the contention is that points allowed isn't the be-all, end-all measurement of a defense.

That isn't the contention of anyone. It is the counter argument to points allowed us what matters most.

No one who places primary emphasis on points allowed has ever said it's the be all end all, it's the people who say the defense sucks even though it doesn't allow points who use the straw man that saying point allowed is what matters most is calling it the be all end all.