Belichick: Most Important Defensive Stat is Points Allowed

[Bill Lee]

You should read the rest of the post.

Actually I did. I was trying to summarize it by saying there are a lot of different ways to look at the same information and end up with different opinions.

I said using strength of opponent is shaky and it is. It involves guess work. Otherwise, aside from the overestimation of the keeping the offense off the field piece, I mostly am in agreement with your post. I'm not picking a battle, I am reading a post and adding my comments.
As far as where the defense is, I think it is not #2, but close to that. Other defenses have done close to as well preventing points but done a much better job creating turnovers. If you went through and adjusted by defensive and special teams scores and the defense taking over with its back up against its own end zone, there are probably teams that move closer or ahead of the Patriots in points the defense is culpable for, and when you then factor in takeways, I would guess they would be somewhere around 5 give or take.

I agree with all of the above.

 

[Ring 6]

There have been plenty of people who have pointed the points allowed to try to say this was the 2nd best defense in the NFL. There were other posters in another thread using this stat to say that this defense is better than defenses such as Denver and Minnesota. That ignores plenty of context - the quality of opposing offenses played, how long they are on the field over if their offense can't move the ball, etc. This defense is not horrible. Those that say it is forget the 2011 defense. This defense is more talented and doesn't have a WR playing CB and a goon squad at safety.

That said, I don't think this defense is top two in the NFL. They tighten up in the red zone but have trouble getting off the field on 3rd down which then takes away snaps for our offense. I've been of the opinion this entire season that this defense is somewhere in between the one that shut out Houston and the one that got ***** made by Seattle. Have they really improved? Hard to say when your competition is the 49ers, Jets, and Rams. I suppose MNF is as good a marker as any we'll have the rest of the year. I hope so. I'd love to see a more stout defense going into the playoffs. In the end, relying too heavily on PPG to measure the defensive side of the ball is reaching at best, folly at worst. The Cowboys currently rank 5th in PPG. Do you really think they're a top five defense or do you think they benefit from other factors? Would you take them over, say, the Broncos (6th) and the Lions (11th)? Context is key. Neither side, the side that says the defense completely sucks and the side that tries to make them out to be a top two unit, is correct. The answer is somewhere in between.

By the way, why in the world would you use the Lions as an example?

 

[IllegalContact]

There is some merit to his whole point about points

 

[mosslost]

There have been plenty of people who have pointed the points allowed to try to say this was the 2nd best defense in the NFL. There were other posters in another thread using this stat to say that this defense is better than defenses such as Denver and Minnesota. That ignores plenty of context - the quality of opposing offenses played, how long they are on the field over if their offense can't move the ball, etc. This defense is not horrible. Those that say it is forget the 2011 defense. This defense is more talented and doesn't have a WR playing CB and a goon squad at safety.

That said, I don't think this defense is top two in the NFL. They tighten up in the red zone but have trouble getting off the field on 3rd down which then takes away snaps for our offense. I've been of the opinion this entire season that this defense is somewhere in between the one that shut out Houston and the one that got ***** made by Seattle. Have they really improved? Hard to say when your competition is the 49ers, Jets, and Rams. I suppose MNF is as good a marker as any we'll have the rest of the year. I hope so. I'd love to see a more stout defense going into the playoffs. In the end, relying too heavily on PPG to measure the defensive side of the ball is reaching at best, folly at worst. The Cowboys currently rank 5th in PPG. Do you really think they're a top five defense or do you think they benefit from other factors? Would you take them over, say, the Broncos (6th) and the Lions (11th)? Context is key. Neither side, the side that says the defense completely sucks and the side that tries to make them out to be a top two unit, is correct. The answer is somewhere in between.

I agree. I have been thinking about context on this whole point lately. It does obviously matter, and there is a difference, if you give up say 17 points to the 2007 Patriots, verses say the 2016 Rams. So there is need for context on the that, though I think it is fair to use D PPG when defending the defense's performance against people who say it outright stinks. It is also a stat that obviously needs a decent sample size.