fightingirish595
Veteran Starter w/Big Long Term Deal
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My bad thought this was a new thread
I think something happened cuz I got a bunch of alerts on posts that I made a while ago
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CLICK HERE to Register for a free account and login for a smoother ad-free experience. It's easy, and only takes a few moments.My bad thought this was a new thread
Someone posted to an old thread. I for one didn't realize it was old.I think something happened cuz I got a bunch of alerts on posts that I made a while ago
right. But plenty of people were saying the Defense was horrible. They were and are totally wrong. (Not saying that was you) The low PPG is true for this team, and the constant referring to the stat was a rebuttal of fans trashing this D earlier in the year, even though it went 3 and 1 without Brady, and still has only lost 2 games in 12.
That isn't the contention of anyone. It is the counter argument to points allowed us what matters most.
No one who places primary emphasis on points allowed has ever said it's the be all end all, it's the people who say the defense sucks even though it doesn't allow points who use the straw man that saying point allowed is what matters most is calling it the be all end all.
That ignores plenty of context - the quality of opposing offenses played, how long they are on the field over if their offense can't move the ball, etc. This defense is not horrible. Those that say it is forget the 2011 defense. This defense is more talented and doesn't have a WR playing CB and a goon squad at safety.
That said, I don't think this defense is top two in the NFL. They tighten up in the red zone but have trouble getting off the field on 3rd down which then takes away snaps for our offense.
Yep I noticed that watching PIT-NYG. People were saying the Giants D is on the upswing but PIT kept gashing them for big yardage plays. I can imagine the Gints fans were pretty frustrated.I would find it way more frustrating to watch 75 yard touch down plays by the other team.
Mike Lombardi calls it "watching the trailer" as in watching the movie trailer and deciding the movie must be good to find out that the only good bits were in the trailer and the rest sucked.worst thing you can do is let your "eyes" make the judgment. (The "eye test" by the non football eye)
A bend but don't break defense is likely to seem like it is failing to someone who is LOOKING for sacks, LOOKING for pressure. That is not what the Bend dont break defense is about. You look at the scoreboard to judge the Defense and the team.
TL;DR: It was the best of times, it was the worst of times...There have been plenty of people who have pointed the points allowed to try to say this was the 2nd best defense in the NFL. There were other posters in another thread using this stat to say that this defense is better than defenses such as Denver and Minnesota. That ignores plenty of context - the quality of opposing offenses played, how long they are on the field over if their offense can't move the ball, etc. This defense is not horrible. Those that say it is forget the 2011 defense. This defense is more talented and doesn't have a WR playing CB and a goon squad at safety.
That said, I don't think this defense is top two in the NFL. They tighten up in the red zone but have trouble getting off the field on 3rd down which then takes away snaps for our offense. I've been of the opinion this entire season that this defense is somewhere in between the one that shut out Houston and the one that got ***** made by Seattle. Have they really improved? Hard to say when your competition is the 49ers, Jets, and Rams. I suppose MNF is as good a marker as any we'll have the rest of the year. I hope so. I'd love to see a more stout defense going into the playoffs. In the end, relying too heavily on PPG to measure the defensive side of the ball is reaching at best, folly at worst. The Cowboys currently rank 5th in PPG. Do you really think they're a top five defense or do you think they benefit from other factors? Would you take them over, say, the Broncos (6th) and the Lions (11th)? Context is key. Neither side, the side that says the defense completely sucks and the side that tries to make them out to be a top two unit, is correct. The answer is somewhere in between.
Yep I noticed that watching PIT-NYG. People were saying the Giants D is on the upswing but PIT kept gashing them for big yardage plays. I can imagine the Gints fans were pretty frustrated.
Mike Lombardi calls it "watching the trailer" as in watching the movie trailer and deciding the movie must be good to find out that the only good bits were in the trailer and the rest sucked.
TL;DR: It was the best of times, it was the worst of times...
Seattle can do that to teams especially in SEA. RW is getting healthier and more dangerous each week (yeah, no idea what happened @TB though).
Exactly! And an excellent points there (which I also made in one of the other threads on this) about how offense and defense affect each other. Special teams does as well -- if your punt team sucks then your opponent gets shorter fields which will make a defense seem worse on the mindless points-allowed-only basis. Likewise, if your punt team is great that'll make your defense appear better than it really is if you only look at PA.
Similarly, even if the defense ultimately did stop the score if they took a long time to do it that takes opportunities away from the offense and makes it harder for the offense to score by putting it on longer fields.
Probably because not all points are scored against the defense. You have to factor in TD's from the offensive turnovers as well as TD's on ST plays.I don't know why the NFL ranks them in terms of yardage...so dumb.
I agree that PPG is far and away the most important.
My only problem is I wonder what would our PPG ranking be if we played more than one tough QB's this season. You can't name me one actually good QB we've played outside of Wilson.
Points allowed are far and away what is most important. All of those other factors are more like compensating factors.There have been plenty of people who have pointed the points allowed to try to say this was the 2nd best defense in the NFL. There were other posters in another thread using this stat to say that this defense is better than defenses such as Denver and Minnesota. That ignores plenty of context - the quality of opposing offenses played, how long they are on the field over if their offense can't move the ball, etc. This defense is not horrible. Those that say it is forget the 2011 defense. This defense is more talented and doesn't have a WR playing CB and a goon squad at safety.
That said, I don't think this defense is top two in the NFL. They tighten up in the red zone but have trouble getting off the field on 3rd down which then takes away snaps for our offense. I've been of the opinion this entire season that this defense is somewhere in between the one that shut out Houston and the one that got ***** made by Seattle. Have they really improved? Hard to say when your competition is the 49ers, Jets, and Rams. I suppose MNF is as good a marker as any we'll have the rest of the year. I hope so. I'd love to see a more stout defense going into the playoffs. In the end, relying too heavily on PPG to measure the defensive side of the ball is reaching at best, folly at worst. The Cowboys currently rank 5th in PPG. Do you really think they're a top five defense or do you think they benefit from other factors? Would you take them over, say, the Broncos (6th) and the Lions (11th)? Context is key. Neither side, the side that says the defense completely sucks and the side that tries to make them out to be a top two unit, is correct. The answer is somewhere in between.
Palmer was great last year, this year he's been average.Palmer's not bad. Wilson is the best QB they've played thus far, though.
Points allowed are far and away what is most important. All of those other factors are more like compensating factors.
But first, we need to be clear. You can only realistically judge how a defense has played, not how good it is. Trying to guess at how it would play in some unknown future game is ridiculous, and if it were possible we would all be professional football gamblers.
So, judging how a defense has played points allowed is far and away what matters most. Almost every other statistic can only be used as an argument for why a defense should be better or worse (ie allow more or less points). The argument about taking opportunities away from the offense theoretically may have merit, but in reality, it does not. There is miniscule difference in low point defenses and how much time they spend on the field, and even where there could be a factor, getting off the field sooner by allowing points isn't helping anyone. For example, as the argument applies to the Patriots, they are 7th in defensive time of possession. Compared to #1, they have faced 16 more defensive snaps, or 1.25 per game. That is not keeping the offense off the field. Sure if your defense is on the field for 8 minute drives every time it keeps your offense off the field, but in the real world that just doesn't happen and this is a misunderstood non-factor.
There are certainly other factors in HOW you ended up with a points allowed number. If your offense allowed points, that shouldn't count against the defense, if they turn it over often, or in bad field position that is a factor also. No statistic is football has any value all by itself without context.
However, focusing on other statistics as more relevant than points allowed is wrong. Whatever you need to do with yards, sacks, completions, conversions, red zone, run D, etc, etc to keep points off the board is irrelevant if you keep them off.
Strength of opponent is also a shaky argument. You can only play who you play, and it is absolutely not a fact that each team does better against each weak team and worse against each good team. Matchups matter. But in the end trying to factor something like that in is trying to guess at what will happen in an unplayed game, and it now just becomes conjecture.
Points allowed, adjusting for the situation under which they were allowed (turnovers, garbage time, defensive and st scores, etc) are the way to judge what a defense has done, with takeaways as a heavily weighted secondary factor.
Really, points allowed is the starting point, adjustment should be made for situation and circumstance and then takeaways should be a heavily weighted second factor to further adjust. Yards, eye test and stylistic factors aren't really relevant.
Probably because not all points are scored against the defense. You have to factor in TD's from the offensive turnovers as well as TD's on ST plays.
NE is currently 13th in 3rd-down D %.To me, a good D is one that can get off the field on 3rd down. Either force the other team to punt or hold them to a FG when given bad field position. This leads to fewer yards and points.
I can dig this.NE is currently 13th in 3rd-down D %.
#2 in points.
#9 in yards (#12 pass/#10 run)
This is a good defense. It is not by any means a sexy defense, especially late in games and protecting a lead. The "no big play" thing is excruciating to watch at times. I swear at my TV a lot.
Have any of the resident statheads compared NE points allowed with the opponents' PPG scored average? I think that would be interesting.
I said using strength of opponent is shaky and it is. It involves guess work. Otherwise, aside from the overestimation of the keeping the offense off the field piece, I mostly am in agreement with your post. I'm not picking a battle, I am reading a post and adding my comments.Sifting through this, what's your ending stance? Do you believe that this is truly the 2nd best defense in the entire league? There was literally nothing about my argument that could even approach "shaky" either. It's air tight. As I told you in another thread, you may want to pick your battles and stick with the people whose opinion is that the defense "really sucks".
Sure but given the alternatives it is better to be worse on 3rd down, and allow a few more yards than to give up more points.To me, a good D is one that can get off the field on 3rd down. Either force the other team to punt or hold them to a FG when given bad field position. This leads to fewer yards and points.
It also is important to note that while they are 13th in 3rd down % they are 8th in 3rd down conversions allowed and 7th in defensive time of possession (7th best meaning 7th least t.o.p) so the fallacy that they can't get off the field is wrong.NE is currently 13th in 3rd-down D %.
#2 in points.
#9 in yards (#12 pass/#10 run)
This is a good defense. It is not by any means a sexy defense, especially late in games and protecting a lead. The "no big play" thing is excruciating to watch at times. I swear at my TV a lot.
Have any of the resident statheads compared NE points allowed with the opponents' PPG scored average? I think that would be interesting.